Received last night; make of it what you will.

"Dear Customers of KIR Ammo:

Several events over the past week have contributed to a significantly tumultuous time in the ammo industry. I will address these as succinctly and objectively as possible to give you information you can use and share to make informed decisions about ammo purchases in the coming months.

1) The Lake City Army Ammunition Plant is the single largest producer of rifle ammunition for the U.S. military and is operated by Winchester-Olin. Winchester holds the contract to run the plant and is thereby granted permission to sell some of the ammo that is produced there - this includes 5.56x45mm M193 and M855, the most popular rifle cartridges in America. On Thursday last week, we were informed that demand from the military has overridden all existing commercial orders, and that Lake City has temporarily suspended all production for the civilian market. When will this end? We do not know, but an educated guess might be a few weeks to a couple months - however I could be wrong; we can't tell with certainty. This move has already tightened supply and demand has soared for many popular calibers including, but not limited to: 5.56x45mm NATO, .223 Rem, 9mm, 7.62x39mm, and .308 Win. We have secured a temporary supply of 5.56 FMJ which will be arriving throughout this coming week, but we do not know how long it will be available on the open market. I will share more information as I learn it.

2) On Friday morning (10/13), Hornady experienced a fatal explosion at one of its manufacturing plants in Wood River, NE. Sadly, one woman died, and the cause of the explosion has not been determined. Reports state the explosion occurred at a chemical compound building which we can safely assume manufactures and stores powder and/or coatings for Hornady ammo. Hornady has been tight lipped about what happened (rightfully so after such a tragic event) and we do not know how this will affect production, but it would make sense that this will tighten supply on Hornady products. Which specific products, we cannot say; it may be all of them, or just a subset (think Superformance hunting rounds vs. Frontier that use different powders).

3) The recent conflict in the Middle East has further tightened supply on ammunition and firearms from IWI (Israel Military Industries). These include their popular Razor Core line of 5.56 and various firearms. Mass shipments of ammunition are confirmed to have been delivered from the U.S. to meet demand. This ties into the Lake City's restriction on commercial sales. The continuing conflict in Ukraine has tightened supply around .338 Lapua Mag, 7.62x39mm, 5.45x39mm, 5.56x45mm, and other popular calibers. I do not anticipate Covid-type levels of inflation, but with all of these factors combined, we are inching in that direction.

4) KIR Ammo is the #1 distributor of Norma Ammunition products in the State of Texas, so we keep in close communication with their U.S. HQ in Savannah, GA. As of Thursday last week, Norma is completely sold out of all major FMJ calibers mentioned above. They are not sure when the next run of 5.56x45mm, 7.62x39mm, or 9mm will happen, but they are completely out of that ammo for now. We were able to secure (only!) two pallets of 5.56x45mm which will be delivered sometime in the next week or two. This gives you an idea on how strong demand has gotten in a very short period of time. Norma is not the only manufacturer affected by this supply constriction.

5) Black Hills Ammunition, famed manufacturer of the 5.56x45mm MK262 MOD 1-C cartridge, will likely halt commercial sales of that particular variation as well. They did not make any formal announcements, but it is a safe guess that we won't be seeing that round available for some time. We were lucky enough to receive half a pallet early last week before the preceding events transpired.

Here at KIR Ammo, we are experiencing record levels of demand and will continue to ship all of your orders in a timely manner without sacrificing service and quality. We always try our best to get back to each and every one of you when you have questions, but please bear with us as right now we are "all-hands-on-deck" in the warehouse, printing, picking, packing, and shipping!

Thank you from myself and the team here at KIR for your continued support of our family-owned business.

Respectfully,

V. Campbell
Owner - KIR Ammo"

KIR Ammo will ship ammo to RI residents, and possibly to residents of other states which, like RI, have "restrictions" concerning ammo sales.

Disclaimer: NO financial interest

Thanks for the info RAF

Thanks for the update OP.

I have been slowly adding a bit over the past couple years and am glad I did.  In light of recent events, I decided to top off some reloading supplies since things are still available.

This guy's just like Sam at sgammo with his emails. Fearmongering to get sales. No officials words from anyone. Sure a women died at a plant but it didn't close the plant down completely. This is just him looking for overpriced ammo sales to people. Artifical. No body's invading the US.

So, if I buy now and the price doesn't go up, do I lose something?

Or, on the other hand, I buy now and the price goes up, I clearly win.

Seems silly not to buy now.  Hence my big orders last week.

Plus, other than some little dips on average pricing when is the last time we ever saw a significant drop in ammo prices in the past 10 years?  -Almost never.

Sure, it drops back down from stupid prices when it's in short supply, but the average price just keeps going up.

I posted Original Post as a "caution" to others, and certainly NOT to instigate any sort of ammo/component "Panic".  Whatever "Panic" is taking place, it's on similar thread posted in GD.  I believe the folks here are likely to have a more "balanced" mental attitude.

OTOH, with the highly antagonistic attitude of the Biden administration (including the US Attorney General) towards the 2A, I have always suggested in the past to make reasonable ammo/component purchases even if doing so stretches one's budget.  I have zero doubt that Biden Admin will eventually try to interfere with ammo/component sales/availability.  Call me paranoid, if you wish.

OTOH, a number of States, mine included, have instituted State Ammo laws which many interstate ammo vendors observe, and so will not ship ammo to such States.  I understand their reluctance to do so.

This simply a modern, politically driven version of the old adage "Buy it cheap, and stack it deep".

When "tight" ammo supplies occur, it is always my personal practice to buy a case or two of .22RF ammo that works well in your firearm(s).  Like many folks, and having been through this before, I have bought and slightly modified some .22RF firearms as practice units.  Such firearms are "stand-ins" for their bigger brothers.   If such .22RF firearms are "properly" configured, a reasonable amount of personal training can be inexpensively done, albeit at shorter ranges.

This saves more expensive ammo for "other uses".

Well said and I agree 100%.

I can tell you with certainty that LC didnt stop all civilian sales to prioritize government contracts.. The only ammo line at LC that's effected is their service grade line, and that is being sent to a government contact first. All other ammo lines are currently being produced for sale.
That comes straight from my distributor who had a round table meeting with Winchester themselves last Wednesday.

I hope you're right.

You can count on it.
Ammo shortages are good for business. The more people panic, the more businesses make.
It shouldnt come as a surprise that ammo sellers are pedaling this panic. They have had a real slow last couple years. A lot are hurting due to the economy, and because of that most are jumping on this "panic" wave to sell and make as much as they can, while they can.

The incident at Hornady will no doubt effect the supply of Hornady ammo for a while.
The war in Israel most certainly effected buyers here at home and caused a massive influx of buyers to the market.
Bullet components are most certainly in low supply and effecting all ammunition manufacturers.
I haven't heard anything about BHA stopping production of the MK262 MOD 1-C cartridge, so I can't comment on that.

All that above will cause a shortage of specific ammunition if everyone is taking a run on it. Once people see ammunition is dwindling, people buy as much as they can when they can. But the LC rumor is just that and is pouring more fuel on the fire that is already spreading.

Again, I hope you're right.  With all due respect, you have offered what appears to be unsubstantiated personal opinions, as opposed to credible folks in the industry stating facts, as they see them.

Both cases can be right at the same time, IMHO.  A "Panic" can happen on the flimsiest of excuses.  BTDT.

Best way to prep for an ammo "panic" is to stock-up beforehand, and if possible, make alternative plans, such as suitable .22RF "substitute" firearms.

We'll soon find out how things go.

I'm "in the industry" as well. I order wholesale from distributors and resell ammunition as well as firearms, components and accessories.  I'm just trying to help out buyers so they dont fall into the trap.

The biggest driver of panics is rumors. Dont get me wrong, I like the money as well so if people continue to panic and prices rise, I'm all for it in a business perspective.
I wont turn down more money, but the fact of the matter is, I'll take my information straight from Winchesters mouth and I already shared what they said.  What you guys decide to do with that information is up to you and I'll leave it at that.

Again, i hope you're right.  I reckon we'll see in the near future.

This is why I've reloaded and stocked up since 1995.

Chris

Man... I'm still shooting IMI M193 I bought at 24cpr. Glad I stacked it deeeeeeeeep.

For the last two weeks I haven't been able to shake the feeling that we're in the equivalent of the first week of December 1941 and we're just waiting for the other shoe to drop on the 7th. All of these pro-terrorist statements by Americans in the media are sickening

You're not alone with that feeling.

Agreed!

I feel something in the wind as well!

Rumors become reality with ammo shortages, as panic buying creates it's own artificial shortage of supply. This is why you keep enough ammo on hand for basic training and practice so you can just wait out the panic buying (and price jumps).

There is plenty of ammo, but there will be delays in distribution and stocking shelves. We shouldn't be too worried about availability (short term), we should be celebrating the past few years and buying ammo (and/or reloading supplies) on a routine basis when there weren't any rumors or fears of availability.

Ironically, while the top two being targeted (9mm and 5.56), you can still find plenty of on-line sales for other calibers: 40S&W sale

ROCK6

Regardless of whether or not there is an "actual" Ammo shortage, or such is a myth-driven, mindless "Panic", I've consistently suggested "Buying Cheap and Stacking Deep" as regards any ammo and/or reloading components.

I've also been consistent in suggesting buying certain and appropriate .22RF firearms (along with suitable ammo), and possibly modifying the .22RF firearms to mimic their "Big Brothers" and using such as "stand-ins" for their "Big Brothers", thus saving "Major caliber" ammo for "other purposes".

Despite the innate limitations of .22RF "training firearms", training with such is a lot better than doing nothing and bitching.

IIRC, long ago I had to shoot multiple 1" targets at 25' with a .22RF rifle, under "time pressure".  Various positions/various rates of fire.  I'm no Davy Crockett, and it was surprisingly demanding to "make score".   Suggest most folks might be "informed"--perhaps "shocked"-- by shooting such a course-of-fire.

As always, going to an "Appleseed" shoot is generally well worth it.  BTDT.

I attended an Appleseed shoot several years ago.  I enjoyed it and it was full of good info and history.  I probably wouldn't go to another, because I can head out to my back 40 wilderness range and do a bit more dynamic training practice on my own.  I also don't like blowing through ammo (even 22LR) at the pace I used to or would at an Appleseed shoot.  I try to be a bit more conservative with ammo now a days.  

This summer for example instead of hauling a few different guns, ammo can and all the gear out to my range I simply would put a pistol on my hip, grab a full spare mag, box of 50, hike around the woods then go to my range, shoot a couple dozen rounds, practice mag changes, take my time and just enjoy the simplicity of it all.  Load my mags back up and hike back home.

Here the proof "as opposed to credible folks in the industry stating facts."
Attached File

I stopped by Bass Pro Shops yesterday at lunch.

Plenty of 9mm FMJ on the shelf ($14 for a box of 50, $58 for 200 rds WWB). Didn't find any 9mm JHP. Similar for other handgun calibers.

Plenty of .308, some 300 blackout. Didn't find any 5.56 but it also didn't look like there were empty places for it on the shelves so they may not carry it.

Last weekend I was in one of the Academy stores locally. Shelf after shelf full of 9mm and 45. Plenty of 308 and various hunting calibers. .223/5.56 nary a box. So, if there's a panic, it's limited to AR ammo. Guess that puts the popularity of the AR platform into perspective, huh?

File this under "Never let a good crisis go to waste":  Lake City Ammo Plant Under Fire

It's obvious that the antis want to impede firearms owners in any way possible.  This is likely part of their overall plan.

Sportsman’s warehouse has Fiochi 115gr 9mm for .24 a round. Free shipping on anything over $50.00

Strongly suggest that one makes an exact inventory of components on-hand, and then buys necessary components to reload such finished cartridges.

Whether an "Ammo Panic" or not, I suggest doing so will serve well.

"Buy cheap and stack deep" applies to reloading components.

My kid (12yo girl) asked me why I have and continue to buy all that ammo and gun stuff.  I told her its because I collect it and enjoy it.  And that some day it might be valuable and not available anymore.  She then asked what I intended on doing with it.  I told her besides collecting it and using it that maybe someday I would use some to sell and trade but most importantly I would end up leaving most all of it behind when I die and someone who would enjoy it and be thankful to have it. And of course she asked who would get it, and I told her she would most likely. I then asked her what she would do with it all.  She said she would most likely collect it and buy more and maybe sell or trade some of it but only certain things, but most likely just collect and buy more.  lol.  

I guess my problem is I don't know how deep to stack it

Yeah....

Apparently the panic is over
Shelves are full
And the prices are now higher

As of 11/18/2023
Winchester 9mm, $23.99/box
Remington Slug $6.99/box

Nevermind, I can't count.

24 cents a round isn't bad in today's market for 9mm.

Shelves are a bit bare yet up here in Rural AK in a lot of villages.
Prices are sky high.

No it isn’t. I realize there is cheaper here and there on line. What makes it nice is I’m buying local so there is no shipping and no tax.

23.5 cents a round with free shipping at Bereli