I hesitate to say this, even in this forum, among friends... - Page 2

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Posted: 4/16/2008 10:19:15 AM EDT

[#1]

I just bought hay for my daughter's thoroughbred around the corner for $5.00 a bale.

Lots of different kinds of hay. Markets vary alot, condition varies alot....One guy was saying they were suggesting it could be used for erosion control- that stuff has probably been rained on or left in the field and nearly rotten, not really suitable for stock if I had to guess.....

Hay CAN and in times of extreme shortage is transported great distances but it is primarily a local market due to it's size/weight to cost ratio etc.... When I was a kid in the mid-late 80's we bought good Wisconsin grown First or Second crop Alfalfa for $1 a bale-standard kick baler bales. This was PRIMO hay, the best you could buy.

As far as smaller portions in restaurants being better for you...you get no argument here. But...it's still less than what I used to get for my FRN....Too, in my case I like to eat a big meal when I go out...it's a treat and not something I do all the time. If I was living on casual dining etc....it might be an issue...but I don't think a big ole meal once a week is going to put anyone on Biggest Loser.

Posted: 4/16/2008 11:03:12 AM EDT

[#2]

Quoted:

Quoted:
My thoughts-Prepare, adapt and overcome. Rude awakening for most people = not too far away. Good for you, either bread for dinner, or roast dove, not a bad choice to have to make.

I guess one of my underlying concerns is that instead of "rude awakening" it will be frogs in a pot who NEVER realize what happened and instead blame something else...hard times plus racial friction over this election could lead to horrible things.

$7/Bale here and thats "buddy" prices...

I am so glad I moved close to my BO location

Posted: 4/16/2008 11:55:02 AM EDT

[#3]

I have approx 9 acres of grass / alfalfa mix under plow. The alfalfa is nitrogen fixing and grass pulls it out in a symbiotic relationship. IE: no need for fertilizer. (Plus you don't plow up the alfalfa every 7 or so years and plant oats to pull the excessive nitrogen out.)

3 wire bales (approx 100#) around here will go for $8-10 wholesale this year. Last year I wholesaled mine out for $7 / bale. The Feed Store has been selling single bales for $12+ for some years, so that will go up too.

Posted: 4/16/2008 2:24:14 PM EDT

[#4]

In my area many farmers are downsizing their crops. The farmer/rancher next to me is leaving an entire quarter section pivot fallow again this year. When I asked him about it, he said even with price increases it cost more to pump the water and harvest it than the hay was worth. Many of his customers pay for it delivered and the fuel cost makes it even worse. I asked him about just feeding to his cows over winter and he responded with a senario about selling part of his herd off to cut costs on feed and such. Its gonna be bad. Just a matter of time.

Posted: 4/16/2008 3:04:36 PM EDT

[#5]

yeah i just planted my small garden for about 50 bucks but it will keep me in beans and cucumbers and okra and tomatoes onions and peppers for the next year with seeds saved for next year too.

Posted: 4/16/2008 3:22:06 PM EDT

[#6]

Quoted:

Quoted:

I guess one of my underlying concerns is that instead of "rude awakening" it will be frogs in a pot who NEVER realize what happened and instead blame something else...hard times plus racial friction over this election could lead to horrible things.

I just happened to be thinking about this yesterday...

If the doo-doo hits the fan during the Dem convention, how wide spread do you think the "racial thing" would be?

For example, the Rodney King story was a national story. However, when the verdict came down, there were no riots in NYC or PHI or BOS....etc.

Let me know what you guys think.

I don't think that there will be any racial anything no matter what happens to Obama -- whether he is crowned king or fed into a wood chipper. A lot of ordinary black people like him, but they don't love him. His "fat middle" is middle income white people who don't object to a black face and have deep concerns about the economy. He gets the black vote by default. No one is going to riot.

The real issue will be a)the Fed has decided to help the dumber American consumers and banks at the expense of the dollar, b)the Bush Administration has been spending money like a pimp with a week to live for seven years, c)we are on the shady side of a stock market bubble and credit expansion and it looks like a parabolic curve, and d)commodity prices are high and finally having an overall impact. None of these things have much of a racial component.

Posted: 4/16/2008 3:25:53 PM EDT

[#7]

I thought the above poster meant if Obama gets assasinated????

Posted: 4/16/2008 3:32:40 PM EDT

[#8]

Quoted:
I thought the above poster meant if Obama gets assasinated????

I don't see anyone doing anything even then. He isn't black -- he is "black-ish". I know black people. They are impressed, but not in love. It's the white folks who see him as the new messiah.

And the creoles think that the whole thing is funny -- now they see Obama as "the first creole president". But he doesn't see himself that way. The joke with creoles is that Obama is trying to pass -- as black!

But no, I don't see an orgy of violence in the future, no matter what happens to him.

Posted: 4/16/2008 3:44:42 PM EDT

[#9]

Here in MD. good Hay [ we use wheat to make straw] is running around $5-$7 a bale I believe. High yes but 15 years ago I was paying $3 - $ 4 a bale and people were bitching plenty about that. Will point out that 15 years ago I think Gasoline was under $1 and wages were much lower too.
This is the time of year, at least around here, that you DON'T want to be buying hay because it is always high because you are paying for it to have been stored from last year. Wait awhile and it will come down. Here is a link to the hay exchange that lists hay for sale in your area so to give you an idea of what it is going for www.hayexchange.com/hay.htm and you can see things ain't quite all that bad

I remember an old timer telling me about how they thought the end of the world was coming when they had to pay .25 cents a bale........Todd

Posted: 4/16/2008 4:47:36 PM EDT

[#10]

Quoted:

Quoted:

I guess one of my underlying concerns is that instead of "rude awakening" it will be frogs in a pot who NEVER realize what happened and instead blame something else...hard times plus racial friction over this election could lead to horrible things.

I just happened to be thinking about this yesterday...

If the doo-doo hits the fan during the Dem convention, how wide spread do you think the "racial thing" would be?

For example, the Rodney King story was a national story. However, when the verdict came down, there were no riots in NYC or PHI or BOS....etc.

Let me know what you guys think.

I don't think that there will be any racial anything no matter what happens to Obama -- whether he is crowned king or fed into a wood chipper. A lot of ordinary black people like him, but they don't love him. His "fat middle" is middle income white people who don't object to a black face and have deep concerns about the economy. He gets the black vote by default. No one is going to riot.

The real issue will be a)the Fed has decided to help the dumber American consumers and banks at the expense of the dollar, b)the Bush Administration has been spending money like a pimp with a week to live for seven years, c)we are on the shady side of a stock market bubble and credit expansion and it looks like a parabolic curve, and d)commodity prices are high and finally having an overall impact. None of these things have much of a racial component.

I postulate a set of facts which you did not describe, and which I won't mention.

Posted: 4/16/2008 4:57:31 PM EDT

[#11]

Quoted:
Here in MD. good Hay [ we use wheat to make straw] is running around $5-$7 a bale I believe. High yes but 15 years ago I was paying $3 - $ 4 a bale and people were bitching plenty about that. Will point out that 15 years ago I think Gasoline was under $1 and wages were much lower too.
This is the time of year, at least around here, that you DON'T want to be buying hay because it is always high because you are paying for it to have been stored from last year. Wait awhile and it will come down. Here is a link to the hay exchange that lists hay for sale in your area so to give you an idea of what it is going for www.hayexchange.com/hay.htm and you can see things ain't quite all that bad

I remember an old timer telling me about how they thought the end of the world was coming when they had to pay .25 cents a bale........Todd

the first random 4 that I clicked on were out of state sellers selling TO south carolina. We don't produce a lot of alfalfa, and I take "small square bales" as the mini bales for rich folks' horses. Regular square bales aren't mentioned. Nonetheless, thanks for posting the link and I will continue to monitor it. One thing I did see, my other neighbor with a round baler sold his for 40 last year, and all the ones on your site list at 60 or above. For a large round bale, selling in bulk essentially, that is significant increase in price.

Posted: 4/16/2008 5:01:58 PM EDT

[#12]

Other issues:

The size and scope of the government is many times the size it was during the Great Depression. What will it do or think it is required to do to sustain itself during another depression of similar proportion?

Posted: 4/16/2008 6:01:53 PM EDT

[#13]

Quoted:
Other issues:

The size and scope of the government is many times the size it was during the Great Depression. What will it do or think it is required to do to sustain itself during another depression of similar proportion?

Continue to ~~confiscate~~ over tax the rest of us poor souls who are productive.

Posted: 4/16/2008 6:11:23 PM EDT

[#14]

Quoted:

Quoted:
42% of ALL THE FED BEEF IN THE UNITED STATES live within 200 miles of where I am typing this. The two largest feedlots in the country are within 50 miles...one family operations puts out over 200,000- yes, 200,000 cattle a YEAR. For spring break this year one of the field trips I took my sons on was to the livestock auction. They had never been to a sale.....

All the buyers and sellers were talking about was the bad prices for cattle. They are literally LOSING $100 per animal with the high feed costs. So...they are selling...which drives down the prices....and means that replacement animals will be scarce in the future....you figure it out.

Plan on eating alot more Tofu, beans and rice....like the rest of the peasants of the world.

How long until you think the lower prices will reach the consumer market? I am buying a side of beef and might wait a little longer if prices will be dropping.

I think that in less than 50 years that the days of the middle class American will be history... Rich or Poor their will be no middle ground.

Posted: 4/16/2008 6:13:05 PM EDT

[#15]

Quoted:
.
.
What does Mrs H think about people who rat out their neighbors for not paying their proper property taxes? Should people be taxed out of their homes when times are tough?

That was one of the reasons for prop 13 in Calif. People were getting taxed out of their homes, litterally. But now the crafty politoco types are invented something called "special districts" that are not subject to prop 13 limitations, and they have the power to tax at will with practically no oversight. The govt is spending way too much money, that is not being effectively utilized. The basic infrastructure is falling apart.

Posted: 4/16/2008 6:48:50 PM EDT

[#16]

Quoted:

Quoted:

I guess one of my underlying concerns is that instead of "rude awakening" it will be frogs in a pot who NEVER realize what happened and instead blame something else...hard times plus racial friction over this election could lead to horrible things.

I just happened to be thinking about this yesterday...

If the doo-doo hits the fan during the Dem convention, how wide spread do you think the "racial thing" would be?

For example, the Rodney King story was a national story. However, when the verdict came down, there were no riots in NYC or PHI or BOS....etc.

Let me know what you guys think.

I don't think that there will be any racial anything no matter what happens to Obama -- whether he is crowned king or fed into a wood chipper. A lot of ordinary black people like him, but they don't love him. His "fat middle" is middle income white people who don't object to a black face and have deep concerns about the economy. He gets the black vote by default. No one is going to riot.

The real issue will be a)the Fed has decided to help the dumber American consumers and banks at the expense of the dollar, b)the Bush Administration has been spending money like a pimp with a week to live for seven years, c)we are on the shady side of a stock market bubble and credit expansion and it looks like a parabolic curve, and d)commodity prices are high and finally having an overall impact. None of these things have much of a racial component.

I postulate a set of facts which you did not describe, and which I won't mention.

I was really responding to the other poster. I don't think that Obama will be the trigger for anything other than higher tax rates.

Posted: 4/16/2008 6:52:14 PM EDT

[#17]

It’s sad to heard these things.

Sounds too familiar and that’s not good.

Fordguy, try working towards production methods that require VERY little external help.

A common problem here with farmers is that hey can’t afford the machinery, the fuel, and general supplies required to produce food.
So basically we have people that have lots of land but they are barely surviving because they can’t afford all the stuff needed.

At least make sure that you have a small scale production sector that twill keep you fed and can be sustained by you and your family with no machinery required.

FerFAL

Posted: 4/16/2008 6:53:01 PM EDT

[#18]

Quoted:
I think that in less than 50 years that the days of the middle class American will be history... Rich or Poor their will be no middle ground.

Then the question for our descendants will be is it better to be rich and try to stay close to a position of influence to protect your own (and always be targeted when more money is needed or some "evil exploiter" needs to be blamed) or be simply self-sufficient but pretend to be poor (and restrict your growth opportunities and hope you aren't discovered to be "holding out")?

Posted: 4/16/2008 7:00:00 PM EDT

[#19]

Quoted:

Quoted:
42% of ALL THE FED BEEF IN THE UNITED STATES live within 200 miles of where I am typing this. The two largest feedlots in the country are within 50 miles...one family operations puts out over 200,000- yes, 200,000 cattle a YEAR. For spring break this year one of the field trips I took my sons on was to the livestock auction. They had never been to a sale.....

All the buyers and sellers were talking about was the bad prices for cattle. They are literally LOSING $100 per animal with the high feed costs. So...they are selling...which drives down the prices....and means that replacement animals will be scarce in the future....you figure it out.

Plan on eating alot more Tofu, beans and rice....like the rest of the peasants of the world.

How long until you think the lower prices will reach the consumer market? I am buying a side of beef and might wait a little longer if prices will be dropping.

I think that in less than 50 years that the days of the middle class American will be history... Rich or Poor their will be no middle ground.

already here my friend............we have a greater stratification of wealth now than in any other period of our nation's history. The top percentiles of our country control a greater percent of the wealth then during the depression or even the Gilded Age prior to the turn of the century.

hello brazil, argentina and viva mexico....that is what we are looking at I fear. Most of us will find our selves in service industry jobs catering to a wealthy few living a life almost without connection to the vast majority of americans. There will be just enough of a "middling class" to give many of us just enough hope of economic mobility that most wont ever even realize their true station.

Posted: 4/16/2008 7:03:06 PM EDT

[#20]

Quoted:
I think that in less than 50 years that the days of the middle class American will be history... Rich or Poor their will be no middle ground.

If interest rates don't rise and inflation continues or stays constant, you'll see the erosion of the middle class in less than 10.

Posted: 4/16/2008 7:06:18 PM EDT

[#21]

Quoted:
Big round bales of hay are $15 each here, $17.50 delivered if you buy 8 or more. They are advertised as being good for erosion control.

I don't think that's feed quality hay.

GR

Posted: 4/16/2008 7:08:25 PM EDT

[#22]

Quoted:

Quoted:
42% of ALL THE FED BEEF IN THE UNITED STATES live within 200 miles of where I am typing this. The two largest feedlots in the country are within 50 miles...one family operations puts out over 200,000- yes, 200,000 cattle a YEAR. For spring break this year one of the field trips I took my sons on was to the livestock auction. They had never been to a sale.....

All the buyers and sellers were talking about was the bad prices for cattle. They are literally LOSING $100 per animal with the high feed costs. So...they are selling...which drives down the prices....and means that replacement animals will be scarce in the future....you figure it out.

Plan on eating alot more Tofu, beans and rice....like the rest of the peasants of the world.

How long until you think the lower prices will reach the consumer market? I am buying a side of beef and might wait a little longer if prices will be dropping.

Don;t hold your breath. The price don't go down as much for the consumer as for the farmer.

GR

Posted: 4/16/2008 8:33:27 PM EDT

[#23]

I am not usually one to speak of doom and gloom, but there is a trend that can't be ignored. History is repeating, and this time it seems that we (America) are going to be the ones that feel the effects.

From what I am seeing it may well come to pass that soon some will not be able to afford to drive to work (long commutes), it may boil down to the fact that it is coming down to the point where it costs more to get to work and feed your family than you make each month (boiled frog syndrome).

I may be proven wrong over time, but I have a feeling that what we are seeing in the economy and the "mortgage crisis" is only the beginning of things to come. The term "cascade effect" comes to mind...

If you are not already socking things away for a rainy day, you'd better start quick! We all may be needing an ark if the events stacking up keep on their current course.

Then again, I could be 100% wrong, but something is nagging at me in the fact that this is probably going to get a lot worse before it even thinks of getting better.

Posted: 4/16/2008 8:47:12 PM EDT

[#24]

First I would like to say, "DON'T PANIC"!

Just be the ant and not the grasshopper. Spend your extra income on preps. I am paying off debt as fast as I can manage and you should too. One and a half years and I will be debt free. Paid off CC's and my truck.

We just need to keep planning and learning, as well as stocking up as often as we can. Learning is really the most important.

Posted: 4/16/2008 9:06:11 PM EDT

[#25]

There's some very enlightening info in this thread.

A lot of people seem to talk about how they're trying to get out of debt as fast as possible. How 'bout after that?

I'm debt free, renting for about 13% of income, live 1.5 miles from work. I can divert a lot of dollars to whatever I need to. I wish I owned some real estate...but I don't, and my opinion is that it'll be years before its time to buy again (and I can't buy much without going into debt...no thanks). I'm pretty well stocked on firearms/ammo, and stocked for about 6 months of food (but its mostly Mountain House). I'd like to come up with a way to grow enough food to sustain myself and few others...but I believe its getting late in the game for that and without buying the right piece of land somewhere, it likely won't happen anyway. At this point I don't care to 'save' any more dollars, and I'm worried about the food supply. The nice thing is, I can stockpile at locations other than home. What do I do?

Posted: 4/16/2008 10:56:20 PM EDT

[#26]

hay in my area was going for 70-90 per ton in the field last season.

I help a friend do some custom haying in the area and we had far more calls than we had time to do. He contracts out most of the cutting to me @35/hr. I run a Hesston 6610 12' Swather. The higher the price of hay the more people want to cut marginal fields. I expect this year to be absolutly nuts.

Posted: 4/17/2008 12:38:20 AM EDT

[#27]

Quoted:
There's some very enlightening info in this thread.

A lot of people seem to talk about how they're trying to get out of debt as fast as possible. How 'bout after that?

I'm debt free, renting for about 13% of income, live 1.5 miles from work. I can divert a lot of dollars to whatever I need to. I wish I owned some real estate...but I don't, and my opinion is that it'll be years before its time to buy again (and I can't buy much without going into debt...no thanks). I'm pretty well stocked on firearms/ammo, and stocked for about 6 months of food (but its mostly Mountain House). I'd like to come up with a way to grow enough food to sustain myself and few others...but I believe its getting late in the game for that and without buying the right piece of land somewhere, it likely won't happen anyway. At this point I don't care to 'save' any more dollars, and I'm worried about the food supply. The nice thing is, I can stockpile at locations other than home. What do I do?

Seriously. I don't have debt, I've got a good supply of guns/ammo, rice/beans, canned goods, but my issue is that I am about to sell my house and move. I will most likely be renting for the next few years. I have a pretty good supply of cash, but I want to invest it in something that won't continue to lose value. I'm thinking about buying gold, but was wondering if there was something else (with less transaction costs) that would be as good a hedge against inflation (falling value of the dollar!) Foreign mutual funds?!

If the dollar tanks, and food prices soar, my cash that I've converted will hopefully make the increased prices affordable. It's not as good as "growing your own", but it meets my needs.

So- what are good investment vehicles to hedge against a falling dollar?!

Posted: 4/17/2008 4:16:02 AM EDT

[#28]

Quoted:
I set up past midnight talking with one of our Ag extension guys the other night.
Even he's nervous!

He expects meat prices to fall later this year as folks dump their hogs and cattle, flooding the market, when it no longer makes sense to buy feed, or feed grain/hay what you could otherwise sell for more than the livestock.

He's prepping hard now too.

Is there a threshold or better, a place to track these wholesale numbers? I figure if meat really tanks it will be a good time to stock up and even go half with a friend on a beef or a hog.

I am in landscaping and I know that I have seen prices skyrocket on fuel, fertilizer and chemical costs. I have had many clients who have been put off by high costs associated with organic products, currently and with the trends that price is equalizing, which is frightening to me.

Posted: 4/17/2008 4:21:36 AM EDT

[#29]

Quoted:

Quoted:
Big round bales of hay are $15 each here, $17.50 delivered if you buy 8 or more. They are advertised as being good for erosion control.

Here in Ohio they are selling for $100.00 start trucking them up here.

I know in central Texas last year it was a fantastic weather year for us. As I have been reading the thread one of my thoughts is "Dang, I could make a killing in the hay market this year!" It still amazes me how dependent on the weather we are.

Posted: 4/17/2008 4:28:21 AM EDT

[#30]

Quoted:
I'd like to come up with a way to grow enough food to sustain myself and few others...but I believe its getting late in the game for that and without buying the right piece of land somewhere, it likely won't happen anyway. At this point I don't care to 'save' any more dollars, and I'm worried about the food supply. The nice thing is, I can stockpile at locations other than home. What do I do?

I think you'd be amazed at the number of pieces of land around that people would let you lease to run a garden. (and not for very much)
or older people on a farm (or small land) that simply can't work it anymore that would be happy to have a little more income (cash of course) and give you tips on how to work the land.

You can have a smoking garden in not very much space.
There are always little pieces of land tucked away inside cities (ok, maybe not NYC, but most cities). Offer someone $20/month to work their garden and maybe split some food? what will they care, it's wasted space to them. And you'll learn a lot about what works and what doesn't.

Posted: 4/17/2008 6:57:13 AM EDT

[#31]

tag

Posted: 4/18/2008 3:25:50 PM EDT

[#32]

I've got a year left on my enlistment, and I've had ugly thoughts about staying in on a short reup or transitioning to some kind of Active Guard assignment if I can't get a .gov civilian slot set up before ETS. I figure no matter how bad it gets, Uncle Sam will find a way to make his payroll lest the guard dogs bite the hand that used to feed....

I'm in the country now, owning not renting but convenient to post, and a nice 30 year fixed mortgage won't kill me. In terms of physical location I am much better off than I was a year ago.

Posted: 4/18/2008 3:37:39 PM EDT

[#33]

You guys need to look at this

Point is, we are a damn far cry from "going hungry". Also consider our cereal production. We produce virtually every type of basic cereal in pretty damned big quantities. Wheat, corn, soy, rice. You name it we grow it.

"We" being America arent going to go hungry. How we feed ourselves may change a hell of a lot, but quite literally there will be millions upon millions starving to death before we are even going hungry here in America.

Just thank your lucky stars you were fortunate enough to be born in the breadbasket of the world.

Granted the days of dining out and delivery may be over, but I'll gladly take a simple meal of vegetable soup and homemade bread over a rumbling stomach.

However, I may stash away a bit of extra here and there "just in case".