It's going to be interesting to see how the middle-east fares. Iran is already setting a pretty bad example for their medical care system. Afghanistan and others are going to be bad.

CDC Warns of Coronavirus Spread in USA: 'Disruption to Everyday Life Might Be Severe'

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/02/25/cdc-warns-coronavirus-spread-usa-disruption-to-everyday-life-might-be-severe/

Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, warned that the spread of China's deadly coronavirus in the United States is all but certain and said Americans' everyday life could be dramatically affected.

"As more and more countries experience community spread, successful containment at our borders becomes harder and harder," Messonnier told reporters on Tuesday afternoon.

"It's not a question of if this will happen but when this will happen and how many people in this country will have severe illnesses," the top public health official added. "Disruption to everyday life might be severe."

Messonnier said the continued spread of the virus has led to a shift to a more dire tone.

"The data over the last week and spread in other countries has certainly raised our level of concern, and raised our level of expectation that we are going to have community spread here, so that has changed our tone," she said.

<more>

Sweden Govt Says Coronavirus 'Low Risk' Will Not Screen Air Travelers

If numbers out of China are accurate it seems the extreme measures implemented a few weeks ago are starting to show in the results. +9 cases today no new deaths...

It stands to reason that the measures won't have an immediate impact on a virus with such a long incubation period and the timing of the tapering off in their numbers aligns with the implementation of those measures and the incubation period.

Curiously watching Iran; they're making a run for 2nd place behind China!

 link

https://www.grantcunningham.com/2020/02/coronavirus-what-we-know-now-whats-coming-and-how-to-prepare/

Some more information.

To be honest, I don't think we can or should draw conclusions from this data....at least not conclusions that preparedness actions should be based upon. The data, while interesting to play with, probably isn't accurate. Something that has come up since day one is that most folks suspected that China was misreporting the numbers. That said, our state department has assets on the ground in China, and certainly has a clear picture into what is really happening. Our leaders know the 'real' numbers....they just aren't sharing them with us.

My preparations at this point...especially in light of the press conference yesterday...is to expect the worst. I am optimistic that the vast majority of us will survive this, but I don't think it far fetched so say that the next several months of our lives may be unprecedented....at least during our generation.

I'm prepared for it to blow over, and I'll be happy if 'The Plague' stays off shore.
And I'm equally prepared for it to be bad, and I'm not looking forward to our lives being turned inside-out.

S. Korea and Italy's numbers are much more telling about what's happening - and it's not good.

Not sure if it’s been brought up yet but this is the document the CDC is using as a guideline for their response. Only just saw it referenced in an article and haven’t read it yet. Have read similar ones in the past and they alwayhave some good nuggets.

Community Mitigation Guidelines to Prevent Pandemic Influenza - United States, 2017

I'd put it back in, add some bleach or chlorine dioxide in the recommended amount after wiping the pipe down as it is lowered.

400 feet is a long way and a lot of weight considering.

As a kid we had a well about 80 or 120 feet and my Father pulled the galvanized pipe and replaced with black plastic. Pump was in a small room about 6 x 6 feet extending to the north from the basement and there was a similar sized slab on the surface with a metal plate to access the well bore.

Everything was designed to be easily serviced and my Father had to work on it from time to time. We had to add a chlorinator when I was older because the water tested bad for some reason, probably because everyone around used septic tanks.

The pump and well tank was in the room and it used 2 pipes because it was an injector system. [Venturi]

Harbor Fright sells similar pumps that look half decent and could have expedient uses.

This...

Oregon now reporting a case of unknown origin.

On a side note I always keep "case A & B MRE" on my Amazon list and it would appear that they are "We don't know when or if this item will be back in stock."

I looked for some different buying options just for the heck of it and could not find any.  Single MRE are at or above $20.  A lot of people must be panic buying.

I used to get an A+B combo every so often whenever the prices would drop below $140~150.  Currently they are almost @ $500 for the combo case & $35 for a 2 pack.  I always though an MRE is worth $5 give or take but not $17 each!

Flu kills .1 that is 20 x less than Corona...  Ever get the flu??  Kicks the shit out of you chills fever sweats sometimes delirium... it put me down for a week when I was in my twenties...  this is the flu on steroids... have you noticed the percent of hospitalizations? Having a 2 percent chance of dying doesnt mean that the other 98 percent are . ok . How does permanent damage or ending up sterile or being in a hospital for weeks sound?   No income massive bills...

You're assuming you'll even get to see a doctor. My game plan if I catch it and can't get treatment is to bug in and cycle ibuprofen/acetaminophen and pound electrolyte drinks/soups. The last bad flu case I got was about 3 years ago and I recovered in 4 days and two of which were really fucking bad.

I had to laugh at CNN this morning. Huge story on how N95 masks won't protect you from the Coronavirus followed by a long hit piece on peppers buying them which reduces availability from medical professionals who need them...... (wait for it).... to protect themselves from the coronavirus.

Fucking CNN is almost pure comedy. If it wasn't for the fact that the lemmings jump at their every word....

I saw what Singapore was doing, seemed very helpful, as long as there weren't a ton of false-positive notifications.  I assume it was a GPS related notification.

California announced another community spread infected person, in Northern CA, IIRC, first was in Southern CA.  So two in CA, and one in OR.

Sorry I have not posted in a while, but there is a reason - my wife was one of the ones stuck in China...she is back and has completed self-imposed quarantine.  At the end, we were a bit worried that the authorities were very overtly cracking down on people who were sending out any information related to the outbreak from within the country.

Latest from China:
- Supplies of critical health items is virtually non-existent.  Black market and gray market is full blown and prices are high.
- Seems that the info coming out of health care facilities is dwindling...don't know why.
- Movement is severely restricted and is building-by-building in some areas.  Communication is limited, internet is being monitored, even locally.  Some folks have been called into police stations about their postings.
- There are a lot of folks who won't go to the hospitals, even if sick, because they are considered places to "go and die". To me, that clearly skews the numbers on new cases...consider the numbers suspect still.

Some lessons I've taken from all this:
- Travel in epidemic areas is risky and prone to delays, changes - schedules cannot be met, people will not show up, you may not be able to get to your destination at all - plan accordingly.  Govt intervention in movement only complicates things further.
- Social behavior changes radically.  Be prepared for some folks that just can't deal with the stress, others that want to take advantage, others that will suprise you and rise to the occasion - you won't be able to predict well who is who.
- Supplies dwindle quickly for items related to safety (disinfectant, masks, etc..) and emotional attachment (baby stuff).  When that stuff starts to go, you know food, water and other stuff is next.
- Long term food (potatoes, rice, etc..) goes quickly no matter what country you are in.
- Rumors abound.  Most unverified but others end up true and backed up by video and other proof.
- Family communications are an excellent way to do remote recon.  Those cousins and uncles and aunts and friends all have eyes and ears, use them to your advantage.
- Supply chain effects are probably most impactful....don't plan on that store being open when you run out.
- Be creative...nobody said you have to do things and use things the way TV commercials tell you to... use your head and figure out how to fix your problems.
- There will always be a proportion of the crowd that will not comply, even if the request makes sense... it's the dumbasses that end up killing you.

As we go into the next phase of this pandemic, I will certainly be happy to provide whatever info I can as for goings on here in Houston or if you want to ask questions, send me a PM and I'll try to have folks that experienced this answer.

Stay uninfected out there,
RW

She did not have symptoms upon entry to US, so it was self-quarantine at home.  Basically, just stay home and don't go out.  It's actually tougher than it seems.  It's not an emergency situation, so I would get calls for convenience items...ugh  I stayed at a different place during.  But interacting with her only via phone, dropping supplies at the door, etc... makes for some really inefficient and time-wasting processes.  The lesson is keeping lists of things to do, things to buy.... and spending the time to talk through everything.

Best use of the time was to clean the place up and organize so we could handle it as we go out/return if things get worse or if one of us gets infected (or both).

RW

EDIT:

I will add the feedback from inside China on the quarantines.  If you're quarantined to your own building, often police/military are there to monitor your quarantine...violators go...away.   I have seen a lot of the videos from inside the hospitals and I'd say the best description was "Tokyo subway during rush hour with many angry, confused, emotional and sick people."  Lots of yelling, demanding.  Tired staff.  Sick people everywhere.  I have one second-hand report of a guy that was SENT to Wuhan after being diagnosed...I know that is absolutely true.  However, I did not hear his description directly, but it was reported to me as open hospital area, chaos, lack of attention...he used the word's "this is hell".

Very hard to put a real figure on the slightly sick/serious case rates....partly because nobody knows how many are truly infected and not going to the dr to avoid hassle.

There is clinical evidence for a 20% serious case rate.  Of those, about a third will need intensive care.  Go over to Dr. John Campbell on Youtube...one of his videos explains the stats coming out/studies.  MedCram aligns with this too.

WRONG

My wife has gone full survivalist now.  I guess that's a good thing?  Lol

My ultra left wing "democratic socialist" sister messaged me yesterday saying she is becoming a prepper and I was right all along.

@roadwarrior

I will admit I dont follow much of the detailed stats.

Is that 1/3 of the total sick need ICU?  Or 1/3 of the 20% of serious cases.

Correct..of those 20 pct hospitalized, one third of them will need oxygen, possibly intubation/ventilation.

Thats the real problem...there arent enough spots to keep everyones o2 levels up.

Sorry for late reply been busy topping off...stores are nutty here in houston..witnessed two guys stealing 400 bux worth of dogfood today..brazenly.

@Milsurpninja

I'd love another update from your wife. She seems level headed and logical.

Has her position updated? She was one tick over unconcerned last update you posted.

Latest news from China:

- I have heard from several manufacturers that their ops in China are opening back up.

- Shanghai is back in business.

- There are rumors that death rate in Wuhan in some areas was 50%..I am verifying, but it will take time.

- People are now skeptical of the news telling them the worst is over....they still aren't coming out.  Lots of rumors.

Another update expected tonight, will post.

@LTCetme

Sure! She has gone from mostly unconcerned to very concerned as the data rolls in.  I asked her to write an update last night and she ended up writing a 7-page document summarizing the whole situation as of right now!  I uploaded to Dropbox, let me know if this link works:  Situation Report 3-15-20

Nice.  

Nicely done!

Outstanding! She wrote that for us? That was an excellent assessment that even I could read.

Follow up questions...

I personally don't see the nationwide shutdown of everything sustainable for more than a couple of months. Small businesses are getting crushed. Way before this is over I think you will see business start up with "compromise" models (like Starbucks only selling to go). This will likely screw up the social distancing. When that happens how bad does it get? I'm guessing way worse that we can imagine.

Is there any wild card in play for the good? Any low probability high benifit event we can pray for?

Thank you!

Wife updated her sitrep with:

-Current numbers/graphs/projections
-The difference between confirmed cases and actual cases
-Update on treatments
-Update on disinfection

Situation Report 3-18-20

Awesome report Milsurpninja

Is anyone else hearing reports of approx 1000 infected in Shanghai?  Apparently Chinese news is blaming it all on people that have travelled West and come back to China. All quarantined before they got in supposedly. I am trying to verify. but already there is a certain smell to it.
Keep an eye - if there is a new wave in China, it could put a different spin on this entire event.

Be safe out there.

So far one village in AK has quarantined itself.
If you leave the village you cannot come back for 30 days and have a negative test. No outsiders are welcome.

As of today no Alaska village in the Bush has the china virus but that could change quickly.

Hospitals are scared shitless if it gets into the Bush.

Are they still getting mail?  FedEx?  UPS?

Good for you guys.  Are there plans in place to sanitize mail, fuel and food shipments?

yup. Also by-pass mail<groceries.
Nope no plans from what i have read.
They have no clue on what they are doing.
All villages get fuel in the fall time and in spring time. Most carry enough to last till next fall if they cannot get fuel in spring.

More villages have quarantined.
No cases yet.

From my wife:

That is the real issue.  We cannot lock everything down for months; it is just unfeasible.  The best case (and most realistic) scenario that you can expect, is to restrict to a certain point.  The goal is to reduce the spread, and to spread out the number of cases so that the healthcare system is not overwhelmed.  With this action, people will get the virus, people will die.  It is the balance between the good of the many vs. the good of the few.

As far as a wild card, I think there are three things:
1.When we have drugs that effectively treat and can be obtained in large quantities, that will allow us to relax the isolation restrictions so that the economy/life can continue.  It would likely take the form of at risk people sheltering in and the less susceptible population working to keep the country running, but having drugs to treat those who fall ill.  A vaccine is months away, so we cannot rely on that for an immediate relief.
2.Aggressive testing.  This has shown much success in the epidemic in South Korea.  If we can test as many people as possible, then we can issue quarantines for those even before they display symptoms.  It would not take the form of testing nearly every person in the US, but rather testing people who have had exposure to a confirmed case before they display symptoms
3.Hope that the virus dies out this spring/summer.  There has been speculation on this and hope that this virus will behave like a flu, which “dies” out around this time.  This is because the virus isn’t as stable with the warmer weather and increases in humidity among other reasons

You got yourself a good one! tell her thanks!

Personally, I think the drugs and vaccines are a loooong way out. I'm hedging hard on #2 and #3 I really hope it dies off over the summer which will buy the time needed to stock the tests.

Does anyone know why we have so few tests? It sounds like SK had tons deployed immediately, I wonder what our problem is?

Well considering all the “celebrities” and “professional” sports players have been tested I’d say we either have too many or they are poorly managed.

But seriously, how many did you want them to keep on hand for a virus that’s never happened this way before? Keep them on a budget, keep oversight, do the best they can with what they got in their budget. Just like all the rest of us should be doing in our preps.

I don't think there were any mass produced tests for covid19. The tests were developed and produced after the virus appeared. My question was more related to why SK was able to deploy nationwide testing extremely quickly and we have so far been unable to do the same. I'm more curious than looking to blame.