So it's been awhile and I've not seen any ammo come back.  The manufacturers are cranking it out but it's not ending up anywhere I've seen available for purchase.

That may be because I'm really just looking for 6.5 Grendel but I haven't seen any other calibers in the process.  I'm on more "notify when in stock" lists than I can even count and there aren't any notifications coming in which means that they are either not notifying people like they claim or they are selling the ammo before it's added into their inventory or they just aren't making anything but the most common calibers anymore.  

As it stands now I don't expect to see any ammo this year and maybe longer.  I'm really curious where it's going.  Certainly new gun owners means more people buying but unless they have some super secret code they are in the same boat as the rest of us and can't get it either.  If it's not on the shelves and it's not available online and it's not coming in a little at a time and then getting purchased by people on waiting lists, where is it?  

Have you guys been successful getting notifications from the waiting lists?  Maybe it's just 6.5 Grendel (and similar) that's not being made to dedicate production to the more common calibers?  

Who knows.  I have Mondays off and tend to do a LGS survey on that day to see how things are.  The guy at the counter at Academy says they get ammo in on Monday and Friday mornings and as soon as they put it out the "locusts" as he calls them swoop in and buy it all up in minutes.  They even limit to 2 boxes of each caliber per person and they still get wiped out daily when they do get it.  Most probably ends up on gun broker or some shit like that.

I haven't bought factory ammo in quite some some.  I go out of shear curiosity.  Ammo shelves are all bare for the most part unless you shoot 28G shot.

One of my LGS bought a vintage collection of .22 and were selling it for $5/50. The boxes that the ammo was in are worth big bucks and I almost jumped on it just to flip it, but relented for those that actually might need it and shoot it.

Gunbroker, lots of shop sell on gunbroker vs. putting it on the counter.

On gunbroker they can get fair market value without people complaining that they are gouging.

I have sold around 400,000 rounds there in the past 6 months for myself and friends.

To answer you waiting list question.. i have not received one in stock notification.   i do get emails from random companies when they get some in but it's prices I am not willing to pay.  Depending on what happens with the govt going forward if nothing happens it still may be a year i'm guessing.

Yep, almost every LGS in the Atlanta area has a Gunbroker. Some under different names than their actual shop, selling all the goods!

...

I went into AO last week and they had plenty of 9mm, 45ACP, and .223  all at 80 cents or above.  I think by end of summer we will see price decrease and surplus demand. But definitely not the 17 cents a round that we used to have;  those days are gone like the 69.99 case of Norinco.

So, what you’re saying is, the local shops are helping to create the limited supply and high demand, ensuring high prices, and we should boycott them once this passes?

As long as folks line up and grab their ankles, sellers would be fools if they didn't give 'em what they come for

And consumers would be bigger fools to support them in the long run when there are plenty of online entities that aren’t pulling this crap. I get the economic aspect of this decision, but just like I tell the kids...you’re free to make choices, but you’re not free from the consequences of your decisions.

OP,

There are a few online stores that offer decent pricing, and some that offer you to backorder. I haven’t seen any 6.5G but I haven’t been looking. I would advise to shop around and try to stack deep enough to get you through the next year but know there will be a slightly elevated cost regardless. I was able to get a backorder for 10k rounds of match .22 ammo, but it’s close to the cost of 5k rounds from sites that gouge.

Before long credit cards will be maxed out for the ppl that are buying and trying to sell high and the market will stabilize once again.

Didn't know they sold ammo on Gunbroker, that explains a lot.

Neckbeards, the scourge of ammo shortages.  A few years ago those scumbags screwed us all during the shortage.  They camped out at the stores and then bum rushed the ammo as soon as the doors opened.  Used multiple people to get around the box limits and would wipe out the supply within minutes.  Then most of it ended up on Armslist for a huge mark up.  

Normally we have been pretty good about keeping a good amount in stock.  We are ok for 9mm and .45acp but right before Covid we added a second Grendel to the family and my bulk supply didn't last very long at 2X the use.  By that time I logged on to see about replenishing it the stuff was gone.  I get that they have to dedicate production to the most popular calibers, it's just business.  I just hate the situation where the only caliber I really want to shoot (my new rifle) is the one caliber I can't get.

My son works at Academy. Every morning there is a line out front of guys to buy ammo. The same guys. 1 is a local small gun store who also buys 2 guns marks them up double and takes them to a gunshow. He brings his wife and neighbor to maximize his buying. I don't think that is going to end any time soon. With Remington back producing ammo I hope it will help. They have seen fairly steady shipments from Winchester of .223. I think the odd calibers are at least 6-8 months away from being spotty even. I did see .350 legend this past weekend.

The neckbeards...

I have been getting notification emails from sgammo, brownells, wideners, ammunition depot, PSA and ammo supply warehouse. It is mostly 9mm, .223, .308 and 12 gauge with some other surplus mixed in and the prices are still way too high but there seems to be a good bit of inventory. last ammo I bought was some 12 gauge buckshot that was $199 for 250 rounds now the same ammo is $250 before shipping just cant do it.

I don't plan on buying anything for a while, I suspect either things will get back to normal and ammo prices might drop or more than likely some kind of bill will pass that taxes it to death or makes it a PITA to purchase and store.

There is a super simple solution to this.  The retail stores need to raise their prices to take the profit out of the neckbearding.  Econ 101.  

The shelves will soon be fully stocked and they can begin lowering prices as demand falls off.

The big box stores are simple prolonging the shortage by selling at well below the real world market price.

Seems like some of the ammo manufacturers and distributers are starting to sell direct to customers with order limits thereby bypassing the layers of mark up. That is how I am buying 22 standard velocity and powder.

I agree this will continue to hurt local gun stores but they may be bringing this issue on themselves.

That said - I have had good luck at TruPrep at reasonable pricing on powder specifically.

Less common calibers like 6.5 Grendel may be last to return to availability as the manufacturers will prioritize 9mm, 223, etc. Real issue will be availability of hunting calibers at deer season.

When I buy less common calibers first thing I do is buy dies then brass. 6.5 Grendel, 6mm ARC, 224V, 26 Nosler, 280AI. Interestingly, 224 Valkyrie has been available often - maybe no one else likes it.

Ironically I actually got a notice for 6.5 Grendel right after posting this.  Unfortunately it came at night while sleeping so, of course, it was all gone by the time I saw the email.  Frick.....

No 6.5 Grendel for me

Couple of things here:

If you shoot an odd (IE non 5.56/.308) caliber like 6.5 you should at the very least have a cheap ammo press & dies. This will help minimize any shortages.

Yes Manufacturers will probably not be making non standard calibers as much until the market stabilizes.

Yes, local retailers sell online.

No they shouldn't feel guilty about it. Their customers buy products online, if it's good for the goose.....

Yes, let's boycott local shops for trying to provide for their families instead of keeping you in cheap ammo.

Raising prices to discourage the "neckbeards" will then be seen as "price gouging" - this is an impossible gap.
While you may not like what these people are doing- it's just a side hustle. Like Uber, mowing grass in the neighborhood or any of a number of side hustles many people do to provide extra income. They see an opportunity and are able to capitalize on it.

Everyone wants to be a capitalist until it's time to do capitalist shit.

I agree-ish.  The neckbeards are technically just making money, which is good, but when shooters take advantage of other shooters in this manner it's disgusting.  By doing what they do they are purposely hurting the entire shooting community when, more than ever, they should be doing the exact opposite.  Just like during the last ammo shortage these P'sOS are actively taking a big part in creating and maintaining the shortage then profiting off it.  

100% legal and 100% scumbaggery.  If people were showing up at the gas station with a tanker, buying up every gallon and then reselling it 10X the price it would make the public crazy but because it's ammo it's ok.  Any arguments that gas is a necessity and ammo isn't don't hold water.  The only real necessities are food, water and a means to defend yourself and your food and water.

As for reloading, we have all the gear minus powder and primers which, just like ammo, is being neckbearded.  Even projectiles are extremely hard to find. It's the exact same thing as the ammunition shortage.  Our powder supply is almost gone.  We have enough for probably a few hundred more 9mm, .357 mag or .45 Colt (the only 3 we have bullets for currently).  I'd be all over loading my Grendel ammo right now if I had the powder, projectiles and primers.  

My whole point was that the people who pull this crap are directly responsible for maintaining the shortage so they can profit off it.  The only way it ends is businesses refusing to sell their entire supply to these same people day in and day out.  Of course it's easy for the neckbeards to get around it so that's not a real solution.  

Maybe stores should just sit on their inventory until it builds up enough that the neckbeards just can't buy it all.  That allows everyone else to finally resupply at normal prices and takes away the neckbeards customer base.  Take away their profit and they have no reason to keep screwing over the 2A community.

SGAmmo has 6.5 Grendel in stock or at least just announced stock

These are the situations where I tell other that this is why you stock up on ammo in good times.  First, continuously buying ammo creates a consistent demand for production.  Second, ammunition is always going to be a volatile product and we have had shortages dozens of times in the past...hedge your bets buy having your own stock to avoid paying ridiculous prices.

My local FFL dealer won't sell ammo by the case right now and he knows a couple of scalpers looking to buy and resell at gun shows...he simply doesn't make it worth their time to come by anymore.  He was willing to sell me a case as he knows I'm a shooter and bring him frequent business...but I'm still not willing to pay current prices and don't need to.  

One thing I can guarantee you. Even if prices normalize to something more reasonable and shelves and inventories are filled up...there will be another manufactured crisis and ammo will be in high demand and sold out or with crazy high prices again.  

ROCK6

How many times have you lived through a tight market like this?

Do we need price controls now?

There's powder around online but you need to be able to jump on it quick. I got all the powder I wanted in two weeks by following the "Ammo/Reloading Component Availability" thread in Team. The only way I got primers was by buying more powder than I needed and trading some of it locally for primers on the ODT.

CCI has rimfire ammo right now, gotta get on early in the morning to catch any.

https://www.cci-ammunition.com/rimfire/


Federal has Centerfire and Rimfire but at higher prices.

https://www.federalpremium.com/rimfire/

https://www.federalpremium.com/handgun/

This is the one thing that I think is not OK.
You're looking for someone to blame for lack of retailer supply? Here you go. CCI and Federal are shorting wholesalers and retailers to sell at retail.

If the retailers are selling online at crazy high prices, it’s great to see the manufacturers looking out for the shooters. Perhaps it’ll be a good model for the future.

Everyone wants to be a capitalist until it's time to do capitalist shit.

In the past it was always pretty standard for MFG's to sell at full MSRP with the understanding dealers and distributors would usually be lower. Now that's flipped on it's head and full MSRP is cheap. I'm happy to see it as cuts more into the gunbroker madness then anything else.

Federal will not honor even contracted prices when there is a panic. During the 2012 panic Federal raised prices on customers with annual buy contracts. They are slightly weaselly

Blame Hogdon too then - I just bought powder off their site at pre-COVID pricing. Why are retailers selling 22LR standard velocity at $10+ per box of 50 when CCI is selling for $3.99 per 50 plus shipping?

Add in tax as well.

Those manufacturers are literally killing themselves with the dealer base that has supported them for over a century.

But what would I know about the market?

Do you not see the irony of your statements?

Y’all have fun.  I’m done trying to relay how the supply chain works. You can figure it out on your own.

I'll leave the buying ammo to the rest of y'all. I'm still shooting up ammo I bought when I first got into shooting back in the early 2000's. I took the buy it cheap and stack it deep to heart, even all the way back then when GWB was president. I do feel for the new shooters though just getting into the game and they can't afford anything though but not bad enough to sell any of my stash though

Now that Vista outdoors owns most of the ammunition production things are changing. Years ago when federal was acquired they started disrupting the wholesaler-retailer structure.

The LE wholesaler I purchase from was getting jerked around by federal because they wanted to charge him a higher sporting goods rate and issue him rebates for LE purchase orders, rather then send him product at LE pricing as they had been.

Vista knows the power and position they hold in the market now. The only real price competition is from overseas. Don't be surprised to find Vista and Olin lobbying for restrictions on imported ammo next.

The free market is well....free. Local shops are free to sell on Gunbroker all they want. I don't like it or agree with it but, it is what it is.

Ultimately, none of this stops until people stop buying it as soon as it hits the shelves.