New York City Files Amicus Brief in Major Second Amendment Gun Case Before the U.S. Supreme Court.

November 3rd is just around the corner. Predictions, opinions? I am certainly crossing my fingers and hoping NYS will get destroyed in the ruling.

NY is going to lose the case but that doesn't mean the state will become anything like "shall issue."  There is a reason the legislature is passing all these new gun control laws and will do a bunch more when they return in January.

Lol.

I predict major letdown and disappointment.

Honestly, I think the pro-2A is getting all wet thinking there is a slam dunk ruling in the offing that will have purple unicorns f_rting rainbows. Personally, I think there will be a decision with something for everyone on both sides to love and also to hate.

The best outcome in a perfect world is "Shall Issue" is the law of the land AND "Strict Scrutiny" is to be applied to ALL 2nd Amendment cases. Is that going to happen? Probably not. The three worst possibilities are dismissal for being moot, as the case had been before SCOTUS resurrected it on appeal. The decision granting relief only to the plaintiffs and not a blanket ruling. Or the court siding with New York State as would definitely be the case if the 6-3 split was in favor of the Progressives like the late RBG. Legal experts have pointed out these three scenarios as being on the table though an outright favorable ruling for New York State is not likely.

Next best ruling would be "Shall Issue" is the law of the land BUT states can keep their convoluted, in some cases expensive and time consuming licensing process in place. As such, New York's Sullivan Law would remain intact. Here in Nassau, it would still cost $200 for five years, require four references AND take anywhere from six months to a year to issue. The difference being they could no longer stamp it "Target and Hunting" nor could they simply deny you because they felt like it in spite of meeting all the requirements. This is the outcome I think is most likely.

Then of course there is a hard slam to New York not only making "Shall Issue" the law but pretty much eviscerating the Sullivan Law with a "Strict Scrutiny" requirement. I do not think that is going to happen.

Leaving the licensing processes in place would at least placate the Blue States because it would allow them to craft more onerous and time consuming procedures (hint: see what DC did after Heller) in order to delay the inevitable requirement for issuance.

In some ways it seems like the fix is already in. The plaintiffs get 30 minutes in oral arguments but now the defendants (New York State) get 20 minutes AND the Solicitor General, representing the United States (Biden) get 15 minutes. So the side wanting the status quo already gets five more minutes of arguments. Frankly, to be fair, they should have shaved five minutes off of New York State.

Rights don’t get interest balanced.  This scrutiny crap is what has permitted erosion of rights- it’s the “out” RINO judges need to not change status quo.

Heller was a waste of time.  This will be too, because the swamp wants it that way.