The girlfriend and I have been discussing, and observing, trends in the area.  I really noted it this weekend which caused more discussion.

Black Friday - crowded, but not nearly so as just 3 or 4 years ago. Much deeper discounts and deals to be had from what she saw. The rest of the weekend and into the next week the level of shoppers was back to weekend/weekday normal.  I know that online shopping has taken a chunk out of it.

Used Vehicle prices have jumped, in some cases doubled, what they were just a year ago.
Housing rental market here in Helena has been sliding upwards in price (normal), but then jumped hundreds of dollars plus.  Housing buying/selling market has been flat.

We went to Missoula for our annual shopping trip. One of the stops is Southgate Mall. I immediately noticed that there were plenty of parking spots (unusual), between 1/2 to 2/3 of normal for our trip. Inside the mall, half the normal amount of shoppers.  I also noted a lot of them were not carrying anything, or had maybe one bag.  I sat down in front of the Christmas wrapping setup to benefit the food bank (was there about 40 minutes). Usually they have a brisk business going.  Not a single person stopped by while I was there.  We also stopped at Barnes & Noble. Usually very busy, and a line to checkout. The place was a normal weekend busy, and zero line to check out.  The stop a Cabela's was likewise.

What have you noticed or think?

First of all Cabelas' is being ruined by Bass Pro. I knew this was going to happen with the take-over since I've been Bass Pros back east when stationed back there & they're the Kmart of sporting good stores. My contacts in Cabelas tell me a lot of horror stories.  So not surprised the traffic was low & I didn't even take a passing look there on Black Friday. I'm weaning myself off Cabelas and spending more time at other places than there.

I was out & about around town on B-Friday & it wasn't anything like past years.  The only B-Friday shopping I did was at Selway due to their great deal on a stripped AR lower at was back home by 0930, otherwise I did my shopping online.

At least gas prices have dropped 30 Cents in the last 2 weeks after staying higher than other places all summer.

I did notice the change at Cabela's. Overall, I do about 80% of my shopping online (all year long). Groceries and a farm store are my normal places I actually go into. Hardware store now and then.  Target once in a blue moon, under protest. Our annual trip to Missoula is more about the day out and food. :D

I was really making more of a general observation of a lot of things that add up to something might be coming.

It seems like a lot of businesses are starting the whole Black Friday thing early.  Maybe it’s keeping the insanity at bay?

I would agree.  It seems to have started at least a week earlier, maybe a few days more.

As I had first said too, the discounts appear to be steeper this year than in the recent past. Our trip includes her going to a particular store, and buying the same items each year. Normally during our trips, that is about $300.  This year was half that. She noted there were huge discounts on several items, where there usually were none, or a small one.

The huge jump in pricing of the housing rental market is interesting.  Also, less movement than normal for this time of year.  Of course the usual movement at this time of year is due to evictions... or seems that way.

I was in Bozeman for BF and it didn't "seem" busier...but I think there were sooooooooo many deals in so many locations spread out over such a long period of time, that everyone was spread out.   Sans Bob Wards...holy fucking fuck place was packed.

I'm done with "Cabela's" the buy out by BP has left the brand a shell of its former self.  The new management style is obvious.  On the bright side, I found a better Credit Card  to serve my needs.  Used up all my points when they had free shipping a few weeks past.

I'd say we have done 70% of our Christmas shopping online.  When we do shop retail, it is a quick deal as we go with a plan as to what to buy and where to buy it.  When I was younger we would spend the day shopping with no vision of what to get someone.  Now we just ask them or have a solid idea what they would like.  No need to have them wait in line after Christmas to do a return.  Stocking stuffers are a different story.  We did notice the restaurants in Zootown were packed last weekend around lunch time.

Regarding BF, I didn't notice any "door buster" deals that would make me skip hunting that day.  Even if I wasn't hunting, I wasn't impressed what they were rolling out on BF.  The last time I did BF was a few years back at Cabela's.  Got a 10/22 at a decent price.  They actually did it right back then.  Cabela's had hot coffee/hot chocolate for those in line with a movie playing on the big screen.  They gave out free gift cards on the way in.  The line was fairly long and people got their a few hours before it opened.  Those days are over.