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Posted: 10/16/2019 4:27:45 PM EDT
[#1]
They will be on the market, at current market prices.
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Posted: 10/16/2019 4:28:24 PM EDT
[#2]
Not really, not how you are imagining it.
Two reasons. Those where brought over in huge batches, I hope the boomers don't die off in waves. Second, they were accompanied by a metric fuckton of cheap, surplus ammo. That's gone for the most part. |
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Posted: 10/16/2019 4:28:41 PM EDT
[#3]
If the hundreds of thousands of M1 carbines got returned from S. Korea, we'd sure see new life in the carbine market.
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Posted: 10/16/2019 4:29:18 PM EDT
[#4]
I think the market will soften and remain soft.
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Posted: 10/16/2019 4:29:31 PM EDT
[#5]
I would guess more than most would simply be handed over to the police for destruction. Some might be saved by the kids if they appreciate firearms. Some may go to the LGS to be sold.
I have this fantasy of getting a call from someone who knows I collect firearms with the story about a little old lady who is selling her departed husband's firearms and it turns out he has an AWESOME collection of WWII rifles that are pristine condition and I am able to buy all of them for a reasonable price. And then the alarm clock starts chirping and I wake up |
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Posted: 10/16/2019 4:29:42 PM EDT
[#6]
They're probably going to end up actually using them - or having them "confiscated" by those who actually will.
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Posted: 10/16/2019 4:30:54 PM EDT
[#7]
In my experience it wasn't the boomers buying them. Younger crowd.
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Posted: 10/16/2019 4:32:20 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
They will be on the market, at current market prices. |
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Posted: 10/16/2019 4:35:41 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I think the market will soften and remain soft. The only way the market softens is legislatively. |
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Posted: 10/16/2019 4:36:50 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
If the hundreds of thousands of M1 carbines got returned from S. Korea, we'd sure see new life in the carbine market. |
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Posted: 10/16/2019 4:41:13 PM EDT
[#11]
Unlikely unless Russia unloads a bunch of old stuff to us or something.
We probably won't see giant stocks of guns like that all for sale at once again. They were cheap because there were literal crates of them available. |
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Posted: 10/16/2019 4:41:38 PM EDT
[#12]
I have an aunt through marriage who told me her single and childless brother has a warehouse with hundreds of WWII surplus guns and thousands of rounds of ammo. She said its just stacked up and cataloged.
I don't know how to tell her to reach out to me when he passes, but I hope she does. Her kids can't take them, I'm not sure what other nieces and nephews he has. I believe her too. He's a vietnam vet that's always had a good job and I've always known he was into guns. |
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Posted: 10/16/2019 4:42:13 PM EDT
[#13]
Most will get destroyed. A lot of families take guns of passed family members to the local police stations to turn in. The police then do with them what they which in most cases is destroy them.
The families are neither gun people or aware of the history they have and look for the easiest way for them to be done with them. |
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Posted: 10/16/2019 4:43:23 PM EDT
[#14]
Sold mine off when the dirt cheap ammo started drying up. I'm an avid shooter, not a collector.
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Posted: 10/16/2019 4:44:11 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Not really, not how you are imagining it. Two reasons. Those where brought over in huge batches, I hope the boomers don't die off in waves. Second, they were accompanied by a metric fuckton of cheap, surplus ammo. That's gone for the most part. |
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Posted: 10/16/2019 4:44:50 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I have an aunt through marriage who told me her single and childless brother has a warehouse with hundreds of WWII surplus guns and thousands of rounds of ammo. She said its just stacked up and cataloged. I don't know how to tell her to reach out to me when he passes, but I hope she does. Her kids can't take them, I'm not sure what other nieces and nephews he has. I believe her too. He's a vietnam vet that's always had a good job and I've always known he was into guns. Let's hope they don't end up getting scrapped. |
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Posted: 10/16/2019 4:47:10 PM EDT
[#17]
Quoted:
I've been thinking about this. Maybe I'm wrong. So my theory is that a very large portion of the Milsurp guns in this country are all in Boomer hands. I know my dad has a few. In the next decade or so, a lot of that generation is going to ride off into that eternal sunset. So will their heirs hold onto all those guns or will most of those guns end up back out on the market again? |
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Posted: 10/16/2019 4:47:32 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Likely not. Have you seen what Mosins go for these days? Shot-out, rattle trap M1 carbines? The only way the market softens is legislatively. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
I think the market will soften and remain soft. The only way the market softens is legislatively. |
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Posted: 10/16/2019 4:48:32 PM EDT
[#19]
Aren't those weapons of war?
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Posted: 10/16/2019 4:51:11 PM EDT
[#20]
I think a lot of boomers bought sportized versions(bolt guns) for a cheap hunting rifle, everyone and their brothers were selling them mail order till 1969, to many the sporterized version had more appeal than an original configuration. Of the thousands of evidence guns and other used guns we got.....we saw few in original configuration, most were sportized(and not by the person who lost the gun) We did get a few nice M1's(but they all came from 1 person), never saw a single Garand, original Enfield, original Springfield, most mausers were sporterized(long ago) had a mint Halkem? (egyptian, version of swedish Luggman?) We did get lots of nice stuff.....just not milsurp.
Quote HistoryQuoted:
In my experience it wasn't the boomers buying them. Younger crowd. |
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Posted: 10/16/2019 4:51:28 PM EDT
[#21]
to enjoy the milsurp guns you need the milsurp ammo.
Once the ammo starts costing the same or more than modern guns ammunition it's hard to justify the cost. anythings possible though. I bought an m48 in 2001 and at the time turk bandoliers were going for 5 bucks at Dillons and 15 round boxes out of Romania were 4 bucks. You bought the gun and shot the shit out of it was a nice parring. Once the ammo dries up you might as well shoot your hunting rifle for the cost. |
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Posted: 10/16/2019 4:51:42 PM EDT
[#22]
I have a nice milsurp collection, and am an Xer.
They will be sold off eventually. |
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Posted: 10/16/2019 4:51:52 PM EDT
[#23]
How does the lever-action and six-shooter market look after "The Greatest Generation" has passed?
How does the Civil War era market look? The 80's-90's-2000's glut of surplus will follow the same trends. I find that popular movies of particular genre's have a noticeable impact on a particular market. |
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Posted: 10/16/2019 4:53:19 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
We can only hope. I would love to have a couple. Not that CMP would likely get these given FBHO order |
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Posted: 10/16/2019 4:56:07 PM EDT
[#25]
I’m slowly selling mine off. 91/30 PU sniper, No 1 & No 4 Enfields, K31, K98, Turkish m38, 1895 Nagant, CZ52. Only thing I’m keeping is my Garand. If I can find a M1 carbine I’ll snap it up.
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Posted: 10/16/2019 5:01:57 PM EDT
[#26]
I used to moderate a Japanese Arisaka forum back in the day.
I had a fairly large collection of mummed and matching rifles. The thing that got milsurps popular were the massive imports that happened from about 1986 to 1998 or so. Blue Sky Garands were $169, Carbines $139, Turkish Mausers with cracked stock were "4-fers", or four rifles for $100 from Century Arms..>Free shipping Without massive new imports and ammo to match, the enthusiasm dies down just like it did after 1968. |
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Posted: 10/16/2019 5:02:08 PM EDT
[#27]
I don’t think we’ll see a revival in the sense that milsurps were 15-20 years ago.
They’ll always be around as they are now (unless we get some type of extreme laws banning them), but I can’t see them being for sale for cheap in large amounts. There might be some spurts of stuff that will come in as it’s found in warehouses and imported (like the recent Chinese SKSs that came in), but no large amounts. Most of the military surplus rifles post WWII or post 1950s are full auto and won’t be sold to the US or will come in as parts kits. Most of the old bolt action and semi auto only stuff that’s out there has been sold. |
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Posted: 10/16/2019 5:12:58 PM EDT
[#28]
Not sure about a revival in the sense that large amounts will flow out into the market anytime soon. Based on the knowledge I have of those days many people loaded up on mil surps and are still sitting on them. Those will slowly trickle out as people pass and my own collection has been getting slimmer every five years or so , so Im part of that group I guess. What will be cool is that guns that were not seen much will start to see the light of day as they filter out.
Im sitting on a number of rarer things that very seldom are seen on the for sale sites. Ah those days of 4 for $100 or cracked stock specials and ammo by the pound were truly amazing and Im glad I was able to be part of it if only in a small way. |
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Posted: 10/16/2019 6:11:43 PM EDT
[#29]
I know my Mosins appreciated a lot more than my ARs.
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Posted: 10/16/2019 6:16:27 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I know my Mosins appreciated a lot more than my ARs. |
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Posted: 10/16/2019 6:24:45 PM EDT
[#31]
I remember having an argument with a dude that was bubba'ing a mosin into a scout rifle, I was telling him that K98ks used to be sold in barrels for dirt cheap just like mosins, and that some day mosins would be worth a lot. He laughed and me and said mosins would be around and cheap forever. I hate being right all the time
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Posted: 10/16/2019 6:25:24 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I know my Mosins appreciated a lot more than my ARs. 
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Posted: 10/16/2019 6:28:46 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I have a nice milsurp collection, and am an Xer. They will be sold off eventually. I love milsurp guns, if they were cheaper I'd have a vault full of them. I'm a millennial, so I got a very late start. |
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Posted: 10/16/2019 6:46:11 PM EDT
[#34]
Unfortunately, it's true that at my local gunshows the crowd tends to be older rather than younger (that's why you have to do your part and bring others into the sport). And we see plenty of pictures here of guys that have collections with dozens of Garands and similar rifles. When these guys go (and eventually me too), some gun shop or auction house is going to have a collection of a whole bunch of old rifles re-enter the market. This will create a modest, but steady supply of rifles back in to circulation. Just think of the pictures you've seen of guys that have 30 examples of the same model rifle. I'm not faulting their collection, since I have my own assortment of Mausers and Finns, but these still represent a good number of rifles that will one day come back onto the market (hopefully).
The comments about some relatives just turning the guns in to the police to be scrapped is an awful thought, but I guess it will happen in some percentage of cases. I hope it happens less rather than more. The younger generation may not be as interested in some of these rifles, but as the population grows, there are still many people that become fascinated with historical firearms and want to get in. In the last few years, a number of companies have begun making replacement stocks for Mausers, Garands, Springfields, and a few other prolific military rifles. This is a good sign of demand. Myself, I am using a replacement stock to restore a sporterized Springfield 1903A3 back to military configuration. That rifle quickly had the stock and metal parts discarded in the 50's and 60's is now returning back to it's old self. |
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Posted: 10/16/2019 7:41:11 PM EDT
[#35]
its not really baby boomers that have them all
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Posted: 10/16/2019 8:04:51 PM EDT
[#36]
Given the trend in prices over the past 50 years, demand has FAR outstripped supply. New collectors and expanding collections will easily absorb new supply to the market. Anybody thinking gun prices will be lower in 10 years is dreaming!!
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Posted: 10/16/2019 8:06:24 PM EDT
[#37]
I’m of the “millennial” generation and old surplus rifles are my primary interest. First gun I bought myself was a Savage no4mk1, spiraled downhill from there.
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Posted: 10/16/2019 8:11:13 PM EDT
[#38]
To keep this moving, here is one of my better milsurps. These were never at Samco for the blue light special. |
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Posted: 10/16/2019 8:17:39 PM EDT
[#39]
Millennial here. WWII rifles are definitely of interest to me. Don’t have a garand yet, but definitely will own one. I’ve had a K98 K, currently have a mosin nagant, and of course tons of surplus steel case 7.62 x 54. There definitely are some younger folks interested in preserving history.
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Posted: 10/16/2019 8:17:55 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
In my experience it wasn't the boomers buying them. Younger crowd. |
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Posted: 10/16/2019 10:51:06 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Likely not. Have you seen what Mosins go for these days? Shot-out, rattle trap M1 carbines? The only way the market softens is legislatively. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
I think the market will soften and remain soft. The only way the market softens is legislatively. |
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Posted: 10/16/2019 10:57:06 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
In my experience it wasn't the boomers buying them. Younger crowd. |
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Posted: 10/16/2019 11:02:14 PM EDT
[#43]
They will go up, up, up at a steady clip....German and US at a faster clip.
Some flavors will always be sorta flat like South American Mausers. The exception being the M1909 Argentine Mausers Anything from the warring powers from WW-1 on will do well as will semi-auto rifles from any country. Hell, 20 years ago you could hardly get $50.00 for a complete Arisaka Type 38 or 99 unless it was a paratrooper variant or carbine.
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Posted: 10/16/2019 11:36:03 PM EDT
[#44]
It is probably neither. They were cheap because they hit the market in huge numbers. Unless "Muh Russia" decides to play nice (freeing up both Russian and Ukrainian surplus stocks) or the Chinese, Cuban, North Korean and Iranian regimes fall, or India and Pakistan decide to offload their Enfield-variants en-masse, there are just not a lot of large stocks of importable MILSURP s left out there.
Conversely, though we hear about it a lot, relatively few guns are "turned into the police" when someone dies. Usually, even if the wife/husband/kids/nieces/nephews are not "gun people", they have a pretty good idea that most decent guns are worth at least as much as an I-phone. Many are in the "very casual plinker" category, and have just enough interest to keep one- or two- around as an "uncle's" or "grandpa's" gun. Multiply this by the number of descendants (remember to include not only your kids, but those nieces and nephews you took to the range), and a lot of guns end up in relatives hands. That will reduce the size of an arsenal quickly. Then, a lot get sold, traded, etc in dirbs and drabs over an extended period of time, which means that the price remains stagnant. Old lever guns and such have remained somewhat stagnant over all (some have increased, some have decreased slightly, etc), but I dare to say that you won't find many under $300 or so unless it is in rough shape or is in a really oddball caliber. I expect most MILSURPs (minus carbines and Garands) will have a similar trajectory price-wise going forward. |
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Posted: 10/16/2019 11:48:55 PM EDT
[#45]
One of the reasons I haven't tried harder to dissuade my wife and my MIL from their estate sale obsession is that I have this fantasy that someday they'll walk into a house and text me a photo of a Custer-range carbine, or an 1892 Krag, or some such for, like, $200.
Yeah, over the years my fantasies have...evolved. Actually, a couple of weeks ago my MIL dropped into an estate sale, and the result was: 
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Posted: 10/17/2019 12:02:09 AM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
One of the reasons I haven't tried harder to dissuade my wife and my MIL from their estate sale obsession is that I have this fantasy that someday they'll walk into a house and text me a photo of a Custer-range carbine, or an 1892 Krag, or some such for, like, $200. Yeah, over the years my fantasies have...evolved. Actually, a couple of weeks ago my MIL dropped into an estate sale, and the result was: https://i.imgur.com/tKi1nk3.jpg |
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Posted: 10/17/2019 12:21:10 AM EDT
[#47]
I'm kind of going through a revival in my interest, at least.
I have oodles of ARs. But I've been having fun shooting the oddest C&Rs I have. |
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Posted: 10/17/2019 12:22:28 AM EDT
[#48]
I keep wondering how many of those old milsurps will end up being turned my grandchildren in at police gun-turn-ins in order to get weed money.
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Posted: 10/17/2019 2:57:11 PM EDT
[#49]
There's a lot of stuff coming out of the woodwork already, but supply is still trying to catch up to demand. I've seen a lot of old surplus ammo showing up at the gunshows that hasn't been imported in years and lots of chinese mags. I think a lot of people start realizing as they get older and shoot less that they don't need 50-100 rifles in the safe, and it's a pain to move into a smaller condo when you have 100,000 rounds of ammo stashed away. Sometimes the kids will hold on to the guns but a lot go to auctions and I think a lot of boomers have made arrangements for the auction companies to take their collection when they go.
There will be more available in the future but prices won't be like the days of imports flooding the country. |
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Posted: 10/17/2019 2:59:52 PM EDT
[#50]
My dad gave most of his guns away to my boys.
He wanted them to enjoy them while he is still alive. So I would imagine most will be handed down. |
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