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And....rumors of a recall for our new Gov...and State House members....battle ahead.
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267,000 vote spread between Polis and Stapleton.
You need 25% of the
total votes cast in the previous election as signatures to begin recall proceedings. There were 2,525,062 votes cast in the 2018 gubernatorial election statewide. The barest number of signatures needed would be 631,265. To be safe, you would need to add 20-30% on top of that to account for errors, signatures getting thrown out, etc. That brings the total number of signatures to 789,081 at 25% over.
Now it'd be almost impossible to collect that many signatures organically. You'd certainly need to fund some paid signature gatherers to help get you across that finish line. Paid signature gatherers are more than just people getting signatures - they're also verifying information is correct when the person signs, and hopefully limiting your number of signature losses when your package goes to the Secretary of State for validation. This will run, on average, $11 to $15 per signature. Let's assume a generous organic signature gathering of 50%, leaving you 394,540 signatures to pay for gatherers on. At an average of $13/signature, this is $5,129,028.93. That's a
lot of money. This isn't including any other campaign money you'll need for the effort - television ads, radio ads, billboards, get out the vote campaigns, etc.
On top of this, you have a compressed timeframe. 60 days from the time the SoS greenlights your petition. That's all. That means a daily signature count of 13,151 is necessary to meet that deadline. To put that in perspective, we took the entire 60 days to get just over 16,000 signatures. Granted it was a smaller area, but we could probably extrapolate a bit of data from that and see the challenges that would be faced on a statewide recall campaign.
So to even be able to get close to being successful, the groundwork has to be laid far before your petition is submitted and approved by the SoS. You need a library system in place, your board structure decided upon, your strategy laid out, and a laser focus to get this done. There's time pressure from both ends at this point - wait too long and you miss the passion that would drive people to sign your petitions and drive them to want to recall the Governor. Go too early and you miss your groundwork phase and screw your whole campaign. It's a lot of moving pieces that need to all fall into place at once, without issue.
Then there's the Dudley factor. I won't even go too in-depth on that, but suffice to say Dudley has something like an anti-Midas-touch. Everything he touches turns to shit, and this would be no different.
So therein lies the real questions:
#1 - Is there enough anger over ERPO in Colorado to swing 267,000 votes the other way? Knowing that recalls tend to favor Republicans still doesn't make those odds very appealing.
#2 - Is there enough money to run such a campaign? I think we guesstimated that a recall election against Hick would've cost somewhere around $20,000,000. That number is probably higher given our current political climate.
#3 - Does the reward outweigh the risk? Recalling a Governor brings a
lot of press. Losing this battle would empower Polis and the Colorado Dems and make them push for more gun control. Given the above variables, it seems like the most viable outcome is that he wins (swinging 267k votes is a lot) and we get more gun control for it.