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Posted: 12/15/2017 4:29:25 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Big difference. One created a way for actual products built or made by other people to be sold easily and to a much larger market. The other can't even make enough product to sell in the first place while burning thru billions in labor, design, and manufacturing. You're also forgetting the guy that has reduced space access costs by amounts believed to be physically impossible. |
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Posted: 12/15/2017 4:30:24 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Exactly who said Bezos wouldn't make money? Comparing Amazon to Tesla is beyond apples and oranges. Amazon didn't show a 'profit' because they put everything into growing the business. They could have recorded a quarterly profit anytime they wanted, but that would have hurt growth. Tesla is burning cash it doesn't have, lies to investors, and plays number games on par with Enron. Add in chronic mismanagement and it's clear they're toast. |
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Posted: 12/15/2017 4:32:29 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
From my understanding, for more than a few years Amazon was cash negative even when you add back in capital expenditures. Sure, not since 06-now , but early on they were very unprofitable. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted: Exactly who said Bezos wouldn't make money? Comparing Amazon to Tesla is beyond apples and oranges. Amazon didn't show a 'profit' because they put everything into growing the business. They could have recorded a quarterly profit anytime they wanted, but that would have hurt growth. Tesla is burning cash it doesn't have, lies to investors, and plays number games on par with Enron. Add in chronic mismanagement and it's clear they're toast. |
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Posted: 12/15/2017 6:26:42 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted: From my understanding, for more than a few years Amazon was cash negative even when you add back in capital expenditures. Sure, not since 06-now , but early on they were very unprofitable. It's also a fallacy that since Musk was successful at some things he'll be successful at everything. |
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Posted: 12/15/2017 9:16:54 PM EDT
[#5]
I read a bunch of Glassdoor info tonight. I suspect it's mostly cheerleaders and the dissatisfied with not much middle ground but you get the idea. Some things not surprising for a Silicon Valley company, lots of cons about work-life balance and employee turnover. Almost everyone said the Tesla mission of helping the world is a plus. Reported salaries are much lower than I expected, essentially the same as the best companies in my Midwest but with much higher living costs in the Bay Area. Several said they were disappointed Tesla wasn't union. That's a pro for me, suppose it's a con in Kali. Many said management is out for themselves, which can probably be said at any company. Many comments about management being from retail instead of automaker, I can see that explaining a lot of things. No surprises, basically confirmed all my opinions of Tesla.
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Posted: 12/16/2017 9:08:42 AM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I read a bunch of Glassdoor info tonight. I suspect it's mostly cheerleaders and the dissatisfied with not much middle ground but you get the idea. Some things not surprising for a Silicon Valley company, lots of cons about work-life balance and employee turnover. Almost everyone said the Tesla mission of helping the world is a plus. Reported salaries are much lower than I expected, essentially the same as the best companies in my Midwest but with much higher living costs in the Bay Area. Several said they were disappointed Tesla wasn't union. That's a pro for me, suppose it's a con in Kali. Many said management is out for themselves, which can probably be said at any company. Many comments about management being from retail instead of automaker, I can see that explaining a lot of things. No surprises, basically confirmed all my opinions of Tesla. |
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Posted: 12/16/2017 10:06:38 AM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
So, are you guys who are actively saying that Tesla will be bankrupt soon shorting? I'm continuing to hold , no intention of selling especially with the dozens of photos I'm seeing of cars come off the line/delivery centers being full. I've seen the photos of the M3s, and the videos of the delivery center parking lot full of M3s ready for delivery. I just don't think it matters. Tesla has never sold an X or S for a net profit, how are they supposed to sell a lower margin car for 1/3 the price and ever make a net profit? I think they might make a net profit on fully optioned M3s sold at $49k - $54k, but the demand for that is going to be low. There's demand for $35k M3s, but that's going to be a huge money loser for Tesla. If anything, parking lots full of M3s ready for delivery should terrify longs: most, or maybe all, of those cars are net losses for Tesla. |
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Posted: 12/16/2017 10:20:02 AM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I'm not sure anyone is saying that Tesla is going to be bankrupt soon. What I see many people saying is that their cash burn rate, lack of profitability, and consistent production problems cast doubt on their long-term viability. It's eminently possible Tesla will one day be a successful and profitable car company - but it also seems very possible that they will never be profitable, and may end up being sold off to a larger car maker some day. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
So, are you guys who are actively saying that Tesla will be bankrupt soon shorting? What I see many people saying is that their cash burn rate, lack of profitability, and consistent production problems cast doubt on their long-term viability. It's eminently possible Tesla will one day be a successful and profitable car company - but it also seems very possible that they will never be profitable, and may end up being sold off to a larger car maker some day. The auto industry is due for another high profile startup failure. In the 1940s it was Tucker, 1980s it was Delorian, now it's Tesla turn. The cars may survive. It's possible that the debt could be discharged by bankruptcy, and someone that knows how to make cars (e.g Toyota, Ford) could buy Tesla' car business at a bargain price. |
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Posted: 12/18/2017 9:03:45 PM EDT
[#9]
Tesla is prohibiting commercial drivers from using its Supercharger stations
If you plan to buy a Tesla for your job, you won’t be able to use the company’s Supercharger stations anymore. The company recently released a new policy called Supercharger Fair Use, which prohibits new commercial drivers from using the red-and-white charging ports.
Tesla has been working to expand its network of charging stations, announcing in April that it hoped to have more than 10,000 Supercharger stations by the end of 2017. The expansion is needed to alleviate heavy traffic at the stations, which have become a congestion point for drivers. Last year, the company announced fees for charging, and said that it will begin charging drivers an additional fee if they leave their cars at the stations after they’ve finished charging. Tesla says that the stations are intended for drivers who don’t have ready options for charging at home or at work, and that when they’re not used for this purpose, “it negatively impacts the availability of Supercharging services for others.” Thus, the new policy says that for vehicles purchased after December 15th, drivers who plan to use their vehicles as a taxi, for ridesharing, commercial delivery or transportation, governmental purposes, or other commercial ventures won’t be permitted to use the free stations. If there's anyone who needs fast-charging stations I'd expect it to be the commercial drivers. A typical commuter can easily recharge at home or work after they parked. But a commercial driver can have 8+ hours of sustained use during the day. Unless they can swap cars part way they're going to have to re-charge during the work day. And the time spent re-charging is directly counted in their pay.
If commercial drivers are swamping the fast-charging stations it's because they desperately need them for their Teslas to be a viable option. |
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Posted: 12/21/2017 1:15:22 PM EDT
[#10]
Some guy flew a drone over the Fremont plant to see exactly what was going on there.
Looks like Tesla has mostly S and X models, plus a few hundred Model 3s, they are trying to ship out by the end of the year.  Tesla Factory Flyover - Fremont - 12/20/2017 |
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Posted: 12/22/2017 9:21:21 PM EDT
[#11]
The usual end-of-the-quarter drill for Elon Musk: Push a few cars out the door, and declare that the things will get better next quarter.
Now Tesla says they are finally delivering Model 3s to non-customers. <a>http://www.sfchronicle.com/business/article/Tesla-starts-Model-3-deliveries-to-non-employees-12451336.php</a><a href="http://www.sfchronicle.com/business/article/Tesla-starts-Model-3-deliveries-to-non-employees-12451336.php"></a> Pepperidge Farm remembers six months ago...
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Posted: 12/27/2017 3:39:09 PM EDT
[#12]
Analysts are slashing their 4th quarter estimates for Tesla sales.
"The year may not be wrapping up as hoped for Tesla Motors CEO Elon Musk." http://fortune.com/2017/12/27/tesla-model-3-q4-prediction <a>http://fortune.com/2017/12/27/tesla-model-3-q4-prediction/</a> |
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Posted: 12/27/2017 3:44:36 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I read a bunch of Glassdoor info tonight. I suspect it's mostly cheerleaders and the dissatisfied with not much middle ground but you get the idea. Some things not surprising for a Silicon Valley company, lots of cons about work-life balance and employee turnover. Almost everyone said the Tesla mission of helping the world is a plus. Reported salaries are much lower than I expected, essentially the same as the best companies in my Midwest but with much higher living costs in the Bay Area. Several said they were disappointed Tesla wasn't union. That's a pro for me, suppose it's a con in Kali. Many said management is out for themselves, which can probably be said at any company. Many comments about management being from retail instead of automaker, I can see that explaining a lot of things. No surprises, basically confirmed all my opinions of Tesla. Kharn |
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Posted: 12/27/2017 7:16:07 PM EDT
[#14]
I'm starting to notice that writers and analysts seem to be much more willing to actually be critical of Tesla now, so some of the shine is definitely wearing off.
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Posted: 1/3/2018 7:15:53 PM EDT
[#15]
https://jalopnik.com/tesla-makes-major-progress-addressing-model-3-issues-bu-1821751604
Tesla said on Wednesday that it made “major progress” addressing bottlenecks in the Model 3 production line and told investors it made roughly 2,500 of the all-electric cars in the last quarter of 2017. But the automaker again pushed back a production target of 5,000 units per week deeper into 2018. |
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Posted: 1/3/2018 7:46:07 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
https://jalopnik.com/tesla-makes-major-progress-addressing-model-3-issues-bu-1821751604 2,500 units in the 4th quarter, not good news but not world ending bad news either. They are now about 5 months behind their original schedule. 
You know, when I was in the third grade, I designed some cool cars. I didn't have a clue how to build them either. |
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Posted: 1/3/2018 8:19:55 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
https://jalopnik.com/tesla-makes-major-progress-addressing-model-3-issues-bu-1821751604 2,500 units in the 4th quarter, not good news but not world ending bad news either. They are now about 5 months behind their original schedule. Quote HistoryQuoted:
https://jalopnik.com/tesla-makes-major-progress-addressing-model-3-issues-bu-1821751604 Tesla said on Wednesday that it made “major progress” addressing bottlenecks in the Model 3 production line and told investors it made roughly 2,500 of the all-electric cars in the last quarter of 2017. But the automaker again pushed back a production target of 5,000 units per week deeper into 2018. From Conference call: Tesla CEO says the company is learning from Model X, with a focus on “more simplicity on the Model 3.” Future Model S elements are only approved if they are also easy to manufacture, and the failure/manufacturing risk is low. Tesla is also telling suppliers they have to be ready to go by July 1st, 2017 – Musk stresses this is not start of production (or an “impossible date” to start production), but rather an on hand date for all components/parts needed to start the build – in relation to those parts needed, Model 3 design is almost complete. Musk states that Tesla goal is to build at least 100,000 Model 3s before end of 2017. |
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Posted: 1/3/2018 9:56:30 PM EDT
[#18]
Complete list of over-promised/under-delivered Tesla failures from 2011 to June 2017:
Tesla Failed Goals |
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Posted: 1/3/2018 9:59:12 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Musk's comments from a 2016 conference call: From Conference call: Tesla CEO says the company is learning from Model X, with a focus on “more simplicity on the Model 3.” Future Model S elements are only approved if they are also easy to manufacture, and the failure/manufacturing risk is low. Tesla is also telling suppliers they have to be ready to go by July 1st, 2017 – Musk stresses this is not start of production (or an “impossible date” to start production), but rather an on hand date for all components/parts needed to start the build – in relation to those parts needed, Model 3 design is almost complete. Musk states that Tesla goal is to build at least 100,000 Model 3s before end of 2017. |
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Posted: 1/3/2018 10:27:08 PM EDT
[#20]
But the automaker again pushed back a production target of 5,000 units per week deeper into 2018. I think their chances for bankruptcy in 2018 just went up, not because they wont be selling as many Model 3s (they'll all be sold at a loss anyway), but because the chances that they can't raise any more money at all have increased. |
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Posted: 1/4/2018 8:52:45 AM EDT
[#21]
What, numbers so bad that even the cadre of Elon ball-garglers in GD won't come defend his majesty?
It's okay. Obama will still be his friend... 
...for $38,000. https://www.campaignmoney.com/political/contributions/elon-musk.asp?cycle=12 I can't find any pictures of Elon with Hillary. He's only given her about $8000, so I guess it doesn't rate a face to face meeting. |
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Posted: 1/4/2018 9:48:43 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
And I remember a guy named Bezos who everyone said wouldn't make any money selling books online. You want to keep playing this game? It's really, really, really dumb. You're making a statement that a proven investor/developer who built a net worth of billions of dollars is nothing more than a charlatan on everything he does. Even if building one of the most successful companies in 2000-2010. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted: I remember when a guy named Madoff whom was a money making wizrd, till he wasn't. You want to keep playing this game? It's really, really, really dumb. You're making a statement that a proven investor/developer who built a net worth of billions of dollars is nothing more than a charlatan on everything he does. Even if building one of the most successful companies in 2000-2010. |
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Posted: 1/4/2018 9:57:08 PM EDT
[#23]
Are we buying tesla puts now? They look like expensive asf.
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Posted: 1/4/2018 10:01:58 PM EDT
[#24]
But..but...muh status symbol
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Posted: 1/4/2018 10:54:52 PM EDT
[#25]
If the info is correct.. and Tesla is $23+ billion in debt ? A simple interest Vig on $23B for 30 years..is about $153 million a month..@7%. ouch. Depending on the cost of a new Tesla ?
$153m represents over 3000 cars @ $50K $153m represents over 2500 cars @ $60K $153m represents over 2000 cars @ $70K That’s..Per month just to meet interest. Not current operating and manufacturing cost. They better get busy ! |
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Posted: 1/4/2018 11:08:04 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Are we buying tesla puts now? They look like expensive asf. I've been looking for a way to make some money on this pending trainwreck, and haven't found one yet. |
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Posted: 1/4/2018 11:09:10 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
If the info is correct.. and Tesla is $23+ billion in debt ? A simple interest Vig on $23B for 30 years..is about $153 million a month..@7%. ouch. Depending on the cost of a new Tesla ? $153m represents over 3000 cars @ $50K $153m represents over 2500 cars @ $60K $153m represents over 2000 cars @ $70K That’s..Per month just to meet interest. Not current operating and manufacturing cost. They better get busy ! |
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Posted: 1/5/2018 12:59:19 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Agreed. Too expensive for me. I've been looking for a way to make some money on this pending trainwreck, and haven't found one yet. |
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Posted: 1/5/2018 1:40:27 PM EDT
[#29]
Why does the car itself not have need a drivers license? Then ask your self why Saudi Arabia gave citizenship to Sophia. AI has more rights than humans??
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Posted: 1/8/2018 12:41:47 PM EDT
[#30]
I'm throwing in the towel on this short. No drop at all on shitty model3 production numbers, yet the stock is up over %5 today because Musk announces a Tesla drive-in.
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Posted: 1/8/2018 5:16:41 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I'm throwing in the towel on this short. No drop at all on shitty model3 production numbers, yet the stock is up over %5 today because Musk announces a Tesla drive-in. |
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Posted: 1/9/2018 12:36:19 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I'm throwing in the towel on this short. No drop at all on shitty model3 production numbers, yet the stock is up over %5 today because Musk announces a Tesla drive-in. |
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Posted: 1/9/2018 8:28:21 PM EDT
[#33]
Tesla will have to do a capital raise by June of this year.
They are structurally bankrupt right now, and may breach debt covenants this year. I do believe they will get the money. However, they've never been cash flow positive, have increasing capex commitments and debt maturities due/looming as listed below: 2018 - $501.5 million 2019 - $2.058 billion 2020 - $1.427 billion 2021 - $1.604 billion |
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Posted: 1/28/2018 5:21:28 PM EDT
[#34]
<div id="article_deck" class="content">
CEO Elon Musk has already had to disappoint eager customers with Model 3 delays due to manufacturing "bottlenecks." Gigafactory employees expect he will have to, again. Tesla employees say the company was making batteries for its Model 3 vehicles partly by hand as recently as mid-December. Employees also said that quality control workers were not experienced, and two said that some batteries are leaving the factory with a potentially serious defect, a claim that Tesla vigorously denies. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/25/tesla-employees-say-gigafactory-problems-worse-than-known.html |
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Posted: 1/28/2018 5:23:15 PM EDT
[#35]
BUt..but...muh status symbol
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Posted: 1/28/2018 6:08:01 PM EDT
[#36]
What's next, cocaine deals in hotel rooms?
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Posted: 1/28/2018 6:28:01 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
What's next, cocaine deals in hotel rooms? |
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Posted: 1/28/2018 6:34:16 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I see what you did there Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
What's next, cocaine deals in hotel rooms? |
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Posted: 1/28/2018 6:38:40 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
The only profitable companies Elon Musk were internet application related. Just because you are good at one thing, doesn't make you good at everything. The automotive industry is its own special beast, between suppliers, regulations, liability, making sure it works everywhere they are going to be used... Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted: I remember when a guy named Madoff whom was a money making wizrd, till he wasn't. You want to keep playing this game? It's really, really, really dumb. You're making a statement that a proven investor/developer who built a net worth of billions of dollars is nothing more than a charlatan on everything he does. Even if building one of the most successful companies in 2000-2010. |
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Posted: 1/28/2018 6:39:49 PM EDT
[#40]
But... it's a Gigafactory!!
How can it not be awesome with a name like that? 
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Posted: 1/28/2018 7:12:12 PM EDT
[#41]
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Posted: 1/28/2018 7:15:23 PM EDT
[#42]
At year end Musk said they delivered around 2000 Model 3s and were building at a projected rate of 1000/week and would ramp to 2500/week in Q1 and 5000/week in Q2. Based on reported VINs this isn't even remotely happening. The highest VIN i've seen reported delivered is around 4000, with mid 5000 being configured for delivery in the next week or so. But also VINs in the 3k and 4k range next week. We know they're not building strictly in VIN numerical order so that 5000 is a ceiling, some VINs in that range haven't been used yet. Late last week Tesla registered up to #10060 with the gov't. This is usually done weeks before actually making those VINs. If you assume a simple linear ramp from 1000 to 2500 in a quarter, #6700 should have been made this week and #10060 about 2 weeks from now. #4500 should have been 2 weeks ago. 4 weeks into Q1 and they're already a full week behind schedule. I suppose they could have shut the factory for a week to give the employees a break after a frantic 2017 end but they should have announced that so simple number crunching like this paints a better picture. Right now they're not even doing 1k/week, much less ramping to 2500.
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Posted: 1/28/2018 7:53:50 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I'm throwing in the towel on this short. No drop at all on shitty model3 production numbers, yet the stock is up over %5 today because Musk announces a Tesla drive-in. |
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Posted: 1/28/2018 9:47:38 PM EDT
[#44]
Tesla will report financials in about a month. They may have enough cash on hand to survive another six months or so. It's certainly going to be interesting.
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Posted: 1/29/2018 6:16:38 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Tesla will report financials in about a month. They may have enough cash on hand to survive another six months or so. It's certainly going to be interesting. Bailout ? More money from “investors” ? Blame trump ?
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Posted: 1/29/2018 6:18:04 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
So, Bailout ? More money from “investors” ? Blame trump ? Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Tesla will report financials in about a month. They may have enough cash on hand to survive another six months or so. It's certainly going to be interesting. Bailout ? More money from “investors” ? Blame trump ? |
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Posted: 1/29/2018 6:23:59 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I think Elon Musk will still be able to raise capital. There are plenty of fanboys out here, even if the big banks won't want to lend him anymore. Heck, their last junk bond offering actually ended up selling MORE than they originally wanted. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Tesla will report financials in about a month. They may have enough cash on hand to survive another six months or so. It's certainly going to be interesting. Bailout ? More money from “investors” ? Blame trump ? Thank you Wonder how he will frame it ? “Things are so awesome you should invest more money!!” 
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Posted: 1/29/2018 6:26:16 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I think Elon Musk will still be able to raise capital. There are plenty of fanboys out here, even if the big banks won't want to lend him anymore. Heck, their last junk bond offering actually ended up selling MORE than they originally wanted. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Tesla will report financials in about a month. They may have enough cash on hand to survive another six months or so. It's certainly going to be interesting. Bailout ? More money from “investors” ? Blame trump ? |
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Posted: 1/29/2018 6:33:52 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
<div id="article_deck" class="content"> CEO Elon Musk has already had to disappoint eager customers with Model 3 delays due to manufacturing "bottlenecks." Gigafactory employees expect he will have to, again. Tesla employees say the company was making batteries for its Model 3 vehicles partly by hand as recently as mid-December. Employees also said that quality control workers were not experienced, and two said that some batteries are leaving the factory with a potentially serious defect, a claim that Tesla vigorously denies. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/25/tesla-employees-say-gigafactory-problems-worse-than-known.html But I don't know a single person who 1. currently works there, 2. have anything good to say about when they did work there, 3. have any desire to go back. What I do know is they are constantly recruiting and can never seem to find enough bodies and the people who have worked there all state the pay is a lot lower than you would think. They have posted several openings that are right up my alley (automotive/manufacturing/inventory management, etc.) but I'm not big on instability. Panasonic (the Tesla battery partner and under the same giga-roof) hired 800 people about a week ago in the Reno/Sparks area and really upset the local labor market. That 800 is only about 1/3 of their target recruitment. As I understand it, ~$20/hour for labor and ~$25/hour for management. We had trouble finding bodies before and now we really are up a creek. |
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Posted: 1/29/2018 7:29:57 PM EDT
[#50]
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