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Posted: 10/23/2018 8:05:34 AM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
in other news Tesla competition is gaining ground electric kona is in CA now. 257 mile range, 290 ft-lb of torque https://cnet2.cbsistatic.com/img/20rJb5Uw9hwkr9l87LGF4TdX8IQ=/724x407/2018/10/12/337a7597-086b-4926-a515-2df21126f1c1/2019-hyundai-kona-electric-11.jpg has a far better interior than any tesla. well at least to me 
https://images.caricos.com/h/hyundai/2019_hyundai_kona_electric/images/2560x1440/2019_hyundai_kona_electric_42_2560x1440.jpg niro ev should be soon more evs are coming by many others as well |
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Posted: 10/23/2018 8:45:48 AM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Tesla to announce earnings tomorrow (Wednesday). Regardless of the actual numbers, this is going to be big news for Tesla. https://electrek.co/2018/10/23/tesla-rushes-q3-earnings-near-profitable-record-quarter/ |
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Posted: 10/23/2018 10:04:22 AM EDT
[#3]
TSLA shorts are starting to abandon ship;
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/23/short-seller-who-is-suing-tesla-changes-his-mind-tesla-is-destroying-the-competition.html Tesla shares rose 7.1 percent as a noted short seller Andrew Left of Citron Research said he is now betting on the stock ahead of the company's earnings report on Wednesday.
"Citron is long Tesla as the Model 3 is a proven hit and many of the TSLA warning signs have proven not to be significant," said Left in a blog post Tuesday. "Plain and simple – Tesla is destroying the competition." "TSLA is not just pulling customers from BMW and Mercedes but also from Toyota and Honda. Like a magic trick, while everyone is focused on Elon smoking weed, he is quietly smoking the whole automotive industry," Left said. |
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Posted: 10/23/2018 10:20:39 AM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
TSLA shorts are starting to abandon ship; https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/23/short-seller-who-is-suing-tesla-changes-his-mind-tesla-is-destroying-the-competition.html Quote HistoryQuoted:
TSLA shorts are starting to abandon ship; https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/23/short-seller-who-is-suing-tesla-changes-his-mind-tesla-is-destroying-the-competition.html Tesla shares rose 7.1 percent as a noted short seller Andrew Left of Citron Research said he is now betting on the stock ahead of the company's earnings report on Wednesday.
"Citron is long Tesla as the Model 3 is a proven hit and many of the TSLA warning signs have proven not to be significant," said Left in a blog post Tuesday. "Plain and simple – Tesla is destroying the competition." "TSLA is not just pulling customers from BMW and Mercedes but also from Toyota and Honda. Like a magic trick, while everyone is focused on Elon smoking weed, he is quietly smoking the whole automotive industry," Left said. Otherwise..... 
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Posted: 10/23/2018 10:24:31 AM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I’m sure he means Acura and Lexus instead of Honda and Toyota, right? Otherwise..... There will be some positive talk about growth, new funding, etc. TSLA stock will bounce up and he will take some profits. He's gaming a stock with a cult following. |
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Posted: 10/23/2018 12:32:55 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I wonder if this is related. The SEC recently granted Tesla a waiver allowing them to raise more capital. If they did engineer a profit in Q3 they'll want to announce that before issuing shares or debt. If so, there goes another Musk promise of not needing to raise money again. "we will not be raising any equity at any point" - Elon Musk to investors in Tesla's August 2nd, 2018 earnings call. 
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Posted: 10/23/2018 12:45:40 PM EDT
[#7]
What ever happened with the three wheel car/mc?
Red |
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Posted: 10/23/2018 12:49:12 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
What ever happened with the three wheel car/mc? Red Still vapor ware with no hope in sight. Two or three guys at my church pre ordered elios and put money down on em. One other guy pre ordered the model 3 the day before it came out. Guess which vehicle came last month? |
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Posted: 10/23/2018 2:00:21 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
You;re welcome. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted: Thanks for monitoring all 73 pages for me, words cannot express how much I appreciate it. |
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Posted: 10/23/2018 3:50:29 PM EDT
[#10]
Tesla up 12% as short sellers change tune.
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Posted: 10/23/2018 4:35:44 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted: He's just talking up the stock ahead of the report. There will be some positive talk about growth, new funding, etc. TSLA stock will bounce up and he will take some profits. He's gaming a stock with a cult following. I'm sure they did the same thing on the way down that they'll do on the way up. Spread a bunch of over the top FUD, use the throngs of Elon haters to help spread it, then when sentiment hits bottom, leave them holding the bag while you cover under the FUD umbrella. Then, ride it up to $600, when the Model Y comes out and has initial production problems (it probably will, lol), start the cycle anew all the way down to $400. Ride the wave of diametrically opposed sentiments from one extreme to the other... |
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Posted: 10/23/2018 5:13:28 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Elon haters are just as much of a cult as the followers. ... |
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Posted: 10/23/2018 5:26:22 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I’m sure he means Acura and Lexus instead of Honda and Toyota, right? Otherwise..... Quote HistoryQuoted:
I’m sure he means Acura and Lexus instead of Honda and Toyota, right? Otherwise..... It also wasn’t clear if these were listed in a specific ranking or order, but here they are; the cars people most trade for a Tesla Model 3 are the Toyota Prius, BMW 3 Series, Honda Accord, Honda Civic and Nissan Leaf. Jalopnik However, when I took delivery I asked about the other types of people buying Model 3's and my delivery specialist said most of the ones he had delivered were to people who already had an S or X. Yet on the online owner's forums you will see a lot of people saying this was the most expensive car they ever bought by far. Take that for what you will I guess. |
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Posted: 10/23/2018 10:20:04 PM EDT
[#14]
Sounds like Tesla is going to need to raise capital again.
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Posted: 10/23/2018 10:30:42 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Jalopnik However, when I took delivery I asked about the other types of people buying Model 3's and my delivery specialist said most of the ones he had delivered were to people who already had an S or X. Yet on the online owner's forums you will see a lot of people saying this was the most expensive car they ever bought by far. Take that for what you will I guess. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted: I’m sure he means Acura and Lexus instead of Honda and Toyota, right? Otherwise..... It also wasn’t clear if these were listed in a specific ranking or order, but here they are; the cars people most trade for a Tesla Model 3 are the Toyota Prius, BMW 3 Series, Honda Accord, Honda Civic and Nissan Leaf. However, when I took delivery I asked about the other types of people buying Model 3's and my delivery specialist said most of the ones he had delivered were to people who already had an S or X. Yet on the online owner's forums you will see a lot of people saying this was the most expensive car they ever bought by far. Take that for what you will I guess. You can understand the Prius and the Leaf from the perspective of intent not based on income (like Larry David choosing to drive a Prius in Curb). The 3 series is a bit of a wild card, but I would be pretty confident in saying that most 3 series buyers are "buying up" to their limit, not down. The Civic and the Accord don't make any sense at all, unless the buyers are seriously overextending themselves. Outside of the well healed Prius and the Leaf drivers, that isn't really good news for Tesla. It speaks to a trend of temporary popularity, not sustainable cross shopping. |
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Posted: 10/24/2018 1:24:57 AM EDT
[#16]
There is a manufacturer of a new type of battery that does not use spiral type anode/cathode batteries. They use a completely solid plastic type material that allows for ionic movement. The inventor had one hooked up to a running ipad and then started cutting the battery into pieces with a pair of scissors. Nothing happened! Try that with a regular lithium ion battery.
 These new batteries could be formed into just about any shape and don't catch fire if pierced. I'm not sure how much they would cost vs Lithium ion type batteries but something like this could change the entire electric car and appliance/tool industry. |
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Posted: 10/24/2018 8:51:38 AM EDT
[#17]
Q3 financial report out today after market close. I think they'll show a bottom line profit, but only with creative accounting. Look for ZEV credit sales(aka govt subsidy) and accounts payable to greatly increase. If analysts ask tough questions about net margins on cars, future demand, or free cash flow expect evasive answers.
How much of a per share profit is required to show viability? They've been losing dollars per share each quarter for awhile, even optimistic analysts are predicting less than a dollar/share earnings. Some are saying that much in losses. This should be Tesla's best quarter in history due to nearly all M3 production being high margin AWD or performance. If they can't get an operational profit now they never will. |
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Posted: 10/24/2018 9:44:58 AM EDT
[#18]
Which one of you wrote this article.
 Elon Musk's Twitter meltdowns are symptoms of a much bigger problem for TeslaIt seems only a matter of time before Tesla starts to really suffer as a result of its mad genius CEO’s mismanagement. As with this thread, there are lots of valid criticisms of Musk and Tesla in the article. The ones I agree with the most are these. ...In short, Musk never hits his timelines, but that doesn’t stop him from throwing out new ones that will likely suffer the same fate. Musk assures his followers that nothing bad is going to happen, but can anyone still trust his assurances? I agree with Wozniak... Jan 2018, Steve Wozniak goes on an epic rant against Tesla: 'I don't believe anything Elon Musk or Tesla says' anymore ...but I wanna believe.
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Posted: 10/24/2018 10:09:10 AM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Pretty much. You can understand the Prius and the Leaf from the perspective of intent not based on income (like Larry David choosing to drive a Prius in Curb). The 3 series is a bit of a wild card, but I would be pretty confident in saying that most 3 series buyers are "buying up" to their limit, not down. The Civic and the Accord don't make any sense at all, unless the buyers are seriously overextending themselves. Outside of the well healed Prius and the Leaf drivers, that isn't really good news for Tesla. It speaks to a trend of temporary popularity, not sustainable cross shopping. |
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Posted: 10/24/2018 11:31:47 AM EDT
[#20]
Anyone else want to guess at Tesla's earnings to be reported this afternoon? I expect another loss - net loss per share of around $0.50, perhaps a bit more.
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Posted: 10/24/2018 11:55:08 AM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Anyone else want to guess at Tesla's earnings to be reported this afternoon? I expect another loss - net loss per share of around $0.50, perhaps a bit more. |
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Posted: 10/24/2018 12:05:08 PM EDT
[#22]
Are The Price is Right rules in effect? I'll guess a net profit of $1 with less cash on hand than at the end of last quarter.
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Posted: 10/24/2018 12:06:49 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Anyone else want to guess at Tesla's earnings to be reported this afternoon? I expect another loss - net loss per share of around $0.50, perhaps a bit more. |
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Posted: 10/24/2018 4:17:30 PM EDT
[#24]
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Posted: 10/24/2018 4:19:03 PM EDT
[#25]
+$313m GAAP profit
+$881m FCF $6.8b in revenues |
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Posted: 10/24/2018 4:27:52 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Anyone else want to guess at Tesla's earnings to be reported this afternoon? I expect another loss - net loss per share of around $0.50, perhaps a bit more. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Anyone else want to guess at Tesla's earnings to be reported this afternoon? I expect another loss - net loss per share of around $0.50, perhaps a bit more. Quoted:
Are The Price is Right rules in effect? I'll guess a net profit of $1 with less cash on hand than at the end of last quarter. http://i.makeagif.com/media/10-11-2015/XqWgMH.gif Quoted:
+0.24 per share bottom line, -1.8 per share minus ZEV and AP increase. |
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Posted: 10/24/2018 4:31:25 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Anyone else want to guess at Tesla's earnings to be reported this afternoon? I expect another loss - net loss per share of around $0.50, perhaps a bit more. |
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Posted: 10/24/2018 4:31:39 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryAnd yet it’s down 5.64 today.
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Posted: 10/24/2018 4:34:51 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted: And yet it’s down 5.64 today. |
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Posted: 10/24/2018 4:40:43 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted: And yet it’s down 5.64 today. |
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Posted: 10/24/2018 4:41:05 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryThey also reported on their "reservations" that had so many in this thread concerned. They've only lost 20%, and are working their way towards being able to profitably produce the less expensive models. I must say, on the surface I'm impressed. Bravo Elon, bravo.
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Posted: 10/24/2018 4:42:34 PM EDT
[#32]
Oh yeah those numbers. Knew it was gonna be good news.
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Posted: 10/24/2018 4:58:55 PM EDT
[#33]
Profit Secured - LOL.
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Posted: 10/24/2018 5:03:10 PM EDT
[#34]
Share price is back up to $330 after hours.
Tesla is now pretty much the only automaker that's up YTD. |
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Posted: 10/24/2018 5:06:09 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
They also reported on their "reservations" that had so many in this thread concerned. They've only lost 20%, and are working their way towards being able to profitably produce the less expensive models. I must say, on the surface I'm impressed. Bravo Elon, bravo. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Bravo Elon, bravo. |
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Posted: 10/24/2018 5:20:13 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Do you think they will need to raise more capital? This ER pretty much dismantled their entire case. |
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Posted: 10/24/2018 5:25:55 PM EDT
[#37]
Looks like only $52 Million in ZEV credits.
Accounts payable is up to $3.6 Billion vs $3 Billion last quarter. |
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Posted: 10/24/2018 5:31:02 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Tesla made just about enough cashflow this quarter to pay back the March 2019 debt that the shorts were so "concerned" about, without selling hardly any ZEV credits. This ER pretty much dismantled their entire case. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted: Do you think they will need to raise more capital? This ER pretty much dismantled their entire case. Hopefully, it's a sign of stability for Tesla and hopefully subsequent quarters will show similar profits. But, the concerns about their underlying debt structure and possible "creative accounting" still have many people worried. Why do you think Tesla unsecured bonds are basically rated as junk? |
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Posted: 10/24/2018 5:41:53 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By @LurchAddams:
Anyone else want to guess at Tesla's earnings to be reported this afternoon? I expect another loss - net loss per share of around $0.50, perhaps a bit more. |
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Posted: 10/24/2018 5:43:32 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted: How much do you want to bet? 
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Posted: 10/24/2018 5:53:46 PM EDT
[#41]
GAAP net income of $312 million dollars
Non-GAAP net income of $516m http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/725970e6-eda5-47ab-96e1-422d4045f799 |
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Posted: 10/24/2018 5:56:44 PM EDT
[#42]
US brands falter in Consumer Reports auto reliability survey
Tesla dropped six places from last year and now ranks 27th. GM's Buick, normally a top-10 finisher, tumbled 11 spots to No. 19. Ford was the highest-ranked U.S. brand but fell three places to No. 18. Link |
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Posted: 10/24/2018 5:57:42 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted: People concerned about Tesla finances are concerned about their ENTIRE debt load, include what is maturing in 2018 and 2019. Tesla will need lots of money for capital expenditures, and so I am not blown away by one profitable quarter. ONE quarter's ER does not "dismantle" any of those underlying concerns. Hopefully, it's a sign of stability for Tesla and hopefully subsequent quarters will show similar profits. But, the concerns about their underlying debt structure and possible "creative accounting" still have many people worried. Why do you think Tesla unsecured bonds are basically rated as junk? 90%+ of what I've seen was SOLELY on the 2019 convertible notes. Saying that it's impossible for Tesla to ever redeem them cash-wise without a significant equity raise and that ANYONE would be a fool to convert @ $365 strike price which is what is on the notes. The 2021 notes also have an identical $365 strike price with a higher coupon price. |
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Posted: 10/24/2018 6:04:07 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
+0.24 per share bottom line, -1.8 per share minus ZEV and AP increase. Accounts payable increased $566M. $52M ZEV ~171M shares, or -1.795 per share vs my estimate of -1.8. Damn I'm good. Haven't had time to dig into the report yet. The massive increase in AP was expected but still concerning. SGA decreased, which is suspicious when going through 'delivery hell'. M3 gross margins were 'above 20%' which implies lower than 25%, in the quarter that was entirely high margin units. That's concerning. Still not changing my view that Tesla's structurally bankrupt. We knew they'd pull out all the stops for this quarter. |
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Posted: 10/24/2018 6:16:00 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Tesla made just about enough cashflow this quarter to pay back the March 2019 debt that the shorts were so "concerned" about, without selling hardly any ZEV credits. This ER pretty much dismantled their entire case. |
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Posted: 10/24/2018 6:18:29 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By @Nodak_Cruffler:
Still not changing my view that Tesla's structurally bankrupt. We knew they'd pull out all the stops for this quarter. BUT The beginning of this quarter production was still volatile. The last 4 weeks it's settled in at a minimum of around total 6,500 cars a day. That adds up fast at the end of a full quarter of 3 months of cars with a total average sale price of $59k. That's a stronger foundation and only going to increase in numbers quickly. |
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Posted: 10/24/2018 6:29:39 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted: All true. BUT The beginning of this quarter production was still volatile. The last 4 weeks it's settled in at a minimum of around total 6,500 cars a day. That adds up fast at the end of a full quarter of 3 months of cars with a total average sale price of $59k. That's a stronger foundation and only going to increase in numbers quickly. |
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Posted: 10/24/2018 6:43:11 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I'll assume you meant 6500/week, not a day. That includes roughly 2000 S and X though, leaving around 4500 M3. 4500 is less than the number Musk said they needed to be profitable long term. Demand for LR RWD is exhausted, AWD and premium are getting close. The future is not rosy. Still not taking orders from Europe, limited in Canada. |
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Posted: 10/24/2018 6:59:53 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted: 364,000 reservations in the hopper. Still not taking orders from Europe, limited in Canada. |
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Posted: 10/24/2018 8:06:10 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted: And THAT is what the stock price reflects. The POTENTIAL is definitely huge ... but it will be for naught if they cannot get their costs and debt under control. After listening to the conference call, they stated flatly that GAAP profitability has not hindered their development of the Model Y, semi, roadster, or the Tesla pickup truck. That was a secondary concern of mine, that I brought up in this thread some months ago. That they'd sacrifice their current lead in the space, for GAAP profitability. IF they're statements from the conference call are correct, then that's not the case. As to my primary concern, debt structure, I think they can live with their current debt structure going forward given their current performance results. While I don't think TSLA will pay it's debt off as fast as Musk would like, I think I've changed my opinion from "needs to" raise capital to deal with their debt, to "maybe should" raise capital in order to ensure their market lead. There is no doubt in my mind, that packaged correctly they could wipe out their debt, should they choose to do so, thus reducing a great deal of drama and speculation going forward. But I certainly understand Musk's reluctance to do so, and I don't think he'll have to do it, at least not now. On the first pass, it appears they've done an outstanding job in reducing cost, literally across the board. It's quite impressive really. There is nothing that leads me to believe that trend won't continue, and accelerate going forward. If for no other reason then their increased volume being better able to absorb fixed costs. But I do believe them when they say they're making some pretty incredible improvements in reducing variable costs. There's no doubt on cost per kWh basis they're way ahead of their competition, and really that's one of the most important variables when it comes to manufacturing BEVs. At almost any level of analysis Tesla appears to have a tremendous lead in this space. As I've said, I really want TESLA and Musk to succeed. |
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