SpaceX IPO (Page 1 of 7)
Posted: 1/29/2026 3:31:56 PM EDT
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Didn't see a thread on this yet, apologies if missed. https://nypost.com/2026/01/29/business/elon-musks-spacex-in-merger-talks-with-xai-ahead-of-potential-blockbuster-ipo-report/ 
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Originally Posted By M1Lou: Won't an IPO make them suck due to being a complete slave to making the line go up? Using your theory, every publicly traded stock sucks. A quick glance at various indices over the years indicates this is not the case. Doesn’t mean that SpaceX won’t suck after an IPO, but it is certainly not guaranteed. |
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Originally Posted By @DV8EDD: Didn't see a thread on this yet, apologies if missed. https://nypost.com/2026/01/29/business/elon-musks-spacex-in-merger-talks-with-xai-ahead-of-potential-blockbuster-ipo-report/ https://media4.giphy.com/media/l2Je7AeF1lcg9SQQU/200.webp?cid=8dc8958cot62482mox5oqm640mlmt48bbcdilgj6w5cy1woz&ep=v1_gifs_search&rid=200.webp&ct=g I'll bite. How big of a position are you looking to take though? What is your sizing hinging on? When do you think it happens? |
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I think the IPO price will be over inflated. They'll likely under-perform for a long time. Until we have the technology to actively colonize other planets and/or mine them for resources. I'm not sure what the big revenue source will actually be. Lets be realistic here. SpaceX needs to be able to land rockets on other planets/asteroids. Utilize robots/drones to mine for precious metals/rare Earth type materials. Load it onto a rocket. And fly it back to Earth. But yes. I'll likely 'dollar cost average' into SpaceX for the next 15-20 years. |
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Originally Posted By SkiandShoot: I'll bite. How big of a position are you looking to take though? What is your sizing hinging on? When do you think it happens? Really curious how the offering goes, but I will not be able to participate. I think it happens soon, next few months. Seems to be an uptick in articles about it. |
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Elon is the richest person in the world, he doesn’t care about money and isn’t doing this to get more money for himself. My take is that an IPO is needed to raise the sort of capital he needs to accelerate all his plans. Even Elon can’t walk into the bank and get a loan for a trillion dollars to give a try at putting man on mars. NASA can’t fund a mars mission and would also introduce too much bureaucracy and Elon would lose control of his dream. |
https://www.spacex.com/updates#xai-joins-spacex |
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Probably the only stock in my life that I won't mind overpaying for. It could be a flop but it could also be a company with superheavy lift capabilities that will be without peer for a decade in an age of shifting national security priorities and several hypothetically credible business models in space emerging. |
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Originally Posted By @Voland: I have 200k standing by just for this. SpaceX has the biggest upside, especially if they start mining asteroids. Hello fellow investor! What's your thinking the price point will be? Are you going in on Day 1, as soon as it opens/market? Curious your strategy and time horizon? Just got the green light: Going $125k minimum on day 1 and can go up to $250k now depending on the pricing model, FLOAT, valuations, secondary offering and the greenshoe allocation, lock-up period for VC (should be 180 days). Truely looking to hold the majority of this until S&P500 inclusion (peak passive demand), then I'll reevalute shedding shares and portfolio sizing. Especially with the float going to be so small, there won't be a sag, pumpnbump, nor lull in the storm (continued peak active demand). It's going to be a freight train through the lockup period. A few accounts will be Roth/Traditional so those I might hold for 10+ years. |
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Railroad Construction. Telephone Backbone. Charging Infrastructure. What's next? Attached File |
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The blackhole is growing. WHEN, not if, will they be competitors? |
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Are any of you playing the SpaceX IPO via EchoStar / $SATS? This telecom company holds 2-3% of SpaceX’s equity that it got in exchange for spectrum licenses. Google has their SpaceX stake as being about 1/3 of their market cap but I’ve heard quotes as high as 2/3 so it must depend on what price you put on SpaceX. Been mulling this play over for a bit. Not willing to commit to the minimum to buy in the private market. At the same time I suspect the IPO will be oversubscribed and most of us little guys won’t get allocated. $SATS might be a way to capture the potential initial pump and then convert to SpaceX once it levels off. Thoughts? |
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Originally Posted By Procat: Are any of you playing the SpaceX IPO via EchoStar / $SATS? This telecom company holds 2-3% of SpaceX’s equity that it got in exchange for spectrum licenses. Google has their SpaceX stake as being about 1/3 of their market cap but I’ve heard quotes as high as 2/3 so it must depend on what price you put on SpaceX. Been mulling this play over for a bit. Not willing to commit to the minimum to buy in the private market. At the same time I suspect the IPO will be oversubscribed and most of us little guys won’t get allocated. $SATS might be a way to capture the potential initial pump and then convert to SpaceX once it levels off. Thoughts? I like them for their own reasons. My play to get in on SpaceX is owning bptrx, it's a fund with ownership of SpaceX private stock Tesla and some other stuff. Also own Google for the same reason. I auto buy both holdings each month. I got put on bptrx by an awesome member here, did my own DD and feel it's worth owning. I've missed every major hit stock and IPO. Exception being palantir because of you. Although I got greedy thinking I'd hit pay dirt twice and of course lose some. I won't be missing the SpaceX IPO. I'm gonna back up the truck. |
Callsign-ChuckYeager
That man is a homo and a liar-TrojanMan
Hell, a Ford just breaks down on you. It doesn't fall apart AND try to kill you at the same time-Bloodsport2885
That man is a homo and a liar-TrojanMan
Hell, a Ford just breaks down on you. It doesn't fall apart AND try to kill you at the same time-Bloodsport2885
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Originally Posted By Chromekilla: I'm gonna back up the truck. My thoughts / thinking out loud: In the past Fidelity hasn’t given me a single share when I put in for an IPO allocation. Other brokers like Robinhood will do ignorant stuff like give you 1 share when you requested hundreds. On the day it launches I suspect it runs due to all the interest. Whatever market cap it IPOs at it wouldn’t surprise me if it was double by the end of the first day. Multiple halts won’t surprise me. This may end up being the wildest IPO in history. I want to avoid the craziness if I can. |
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Price is arbitrary on Day 1, first minute and even close of first day. Now, hard core traders are a different story. This is a 3-5 year play all the way to S&P inclusion. Top communication platform globally during the current "war": X/Twitter Top rocket launcher, commercial earth to orbit revenue generation: SpaceX Top launch contender for orbital data centers built by Space Cloud or Google: SpaceX Top contender for actual orbital data centers construction, testing and deployment: SpaceX Top provider of orbital launch services to governments/NASA: SpaceX Top provider of astronaut launches now globally, SpaceX Top global wifi provider: Starlink Next generation cellular provider: Starlink. Top company potential to merge with technology-robot company/Tesla: SpaceX What else? All the above are owned by SpaceX. Based on all of the above, I've upped my play to about $150k minimum on day 1 time 0:01 seconds. Don't care what it opens at or closes at. I'm not selling for 1 year and 1 day and/or S&P500 inclusion. The other plays are hedge plays and I get it and nothing wrong with it. I just don't like that level of dilution nor broad based plays that water down targeted returns for what we are trying to achieve. S&P5001 Bloomberg Good read. |
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Good points @SkiandShoot I hadn’t connected the dots when I originally posted but EchoStar was named as one of the companies joining the S&P on Friday. I bought a few shares this morning on the dip just to keep an eye on it. If nothing else the “index effect” should be fully realized by the SpaceX IPO. |
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Originally Posted By @Procat: Good points @SkiandShoot I hadn’t connected the dots when I originally posted but EchoStar was named as one of the companies joining the S&P on Friday. I bought a few shares this morning on the dip just to keep an eye on it. If nothing else the “index effect” should be fully realized by the SpaceX IPO. The issue I am running into for "why not go big?" and the black hole theory. Why nibble on the edges? Won't be suprised it goes 2X on day 1. Then crashes to only 1.5x on Day 2. I'm not paring my RKLB position as it's a long play AND my capital gains taxes already have lots of issues so I don't need to make things worse. Did Firefly launch the satellite for Echostar? no their launch didn't go. Did RKLB launch for Echostar? no they are working through their own kinks. Launching. Inclusion. There are many paths forward. |
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Originally Posted By Procat: In the past Fidelity hasn’t given me a single share when I put in for an IPO allocation. Is the case that you are eligible but there was more interest than shares available? Or you weren't eligible? Or something else? I'll buy spacex in a heartbeat once it's available to normal people. |
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Originally Posted By Morgan321: Never been involved in an IPO - Fidelity's website states the requirements. Is the case that you are eligible but there was more interest than shares available? Or you weren't eligible? Or something else? I'll buy spacex in a heartbeat once it's available to normal people. I was eligible but the offerings were grossly oversubscribed. Fidelity seems to give preference to their biggest customers first. In some of those same offerings friends who use Robinhood put in for hundreds of shares and only got 1 or 2. That would seem to point them allocating more proportionately IMO. |
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Originally Posted By Procat: I was eligible but the offerings were grossly oversubscribed. Fidelity seems to give preference to their biggest customers first. In some of those same offerings friends who use Robinhood put in for hundreds of shares and only got 1 or 2. That would seem to point them allocating more proportionately IMO. Originally Posted By Procat: Originally Posted By Morgan321: Never been involved in an IPO - Fidelity's website states the requirements. Is the case that you are eligible but there was more interest than shares available? Or you weren't eligible? Or something else? I'll buy spacex in a heartbeat once it's available to normal people. I was eligible but the offerings were grossly oversubscribed. Fidelity seems to give preference to their biggest customers first. In some of those same offerings friends who use Robinhood put in for hundreds of shares and only got 1 or 2. That would seem to point them allocating more proportionately IMO. Robinhood uses a formula to randomly decide, then you get either 1 share, or 10%+9 shares. So you request 100 and get 19. It's better than the account size/activity that most brokers use. Personally I would just wait until day 2-3, IPO's are like playing Russian roulette with a Glock, you risk losing your IPO privileges if you get out too quickly and are stuck in the trade. We'll see what happens after the roadshow when they actually put a value on it, but I expect it to be absurdly priced. You will probably be able to get it for a nice discount in the months after the IPO. |
MUSK TARGETS RETAIL INVESTORS IN SPACEX IPO Elon Musk is considering allocating up to 30% of SpaceX’s IPO to retail investors—far above the typical 5–10%—to tap loyal fans and stabilize trading after listing. The plan includes a hands-on approach to banks, assigning firms specific roles rather than broad competition. Bank of America is expected to lead U.S. retail distribution, alongside firms like Morgan Stanley and UBS. With a potential valuation near $1.75 trillion, demand is expected to be strong. The goal: attract long-term investors and avoid volatile “pop-and-dump” trading after what could be one of the largest IPOs ever. |
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Originally Posted By Chokey:
Hell yeah Elon! That's why I'm gonna back up the truck. |
Callsign-ChuckYeager
That man is a homo and a liar-TrojanMan
Hell, a Ford just breaks down on you. It doesn't fall apart AND try to kill you at the same time-Bloodsport2885
That man is a homo and a liar-TrojanMan
Hell, a Ford just breaks down on you. It doesn't fall apart AND try to kill you at the same time-Bloodsport2885
$TSLA - TESLA–SPACEX MERGER EYED FOR 2027 Wedbush expects Tesla and SpaceX to merge by 2027 as ties between Elon Musk’s companies deepen. Tesla already holds a stake in SpaceX, and a new joint chip facility further integrates their operations. Despite likely FTC and DOJ hurdles, analysts say Musk’s goal is to unify more of the AI ecosystem—making a merger the “endgame.” |
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| I would be surprised if SpaceX cut Robinhood out of the IPO. It wasn’t long ago that Robinhood offered incentives for people to move TSLA shares to the platform after another broker was alleged to be planning on using its clients shares to vote against Elon’s pay package. Elon has to know that the platform and its users have been big supporters of his and to cut them out would be a stab in the back. |
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Originally Posted By Morgan321: I signed up to be notified at Fidelity. Any more information on places that might have a better likelihood of getting in on the IPO? Hey @Morgan321 where did you do that on their site? I only found a way to get text alerts for IPOs in general. I meet all the criteria, so if I don’t hear from you I’ll call my advisor over there. Was hoping to avoid talking to a human. lol. |
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Originally Posted By mnew007: Hey @Morgan321 where did you do that on their site? I only found a way to get text alerts for IPOs in general. |
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Originally Posted By Morgan321: That's what I did, but it was via email. I haven't talked to a human at Fidelity about it, but my understanding based on the website is that you will get notified of an IPO if you are eligible and signed up. They send out emails detailing the IPO. If you’re interested you have to go on the website and read, IE click accept, on the filing before you can enter how many shares you’re interested in. |
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Great comment about the first month. Hilarious. "It's going to be a gong show" Personally I think it's too much of a bad bet NOT to get in on day 1 due to volatility versus waiting. first day |
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Originally Posted By Procat: They send out emails detailing the IPO. If you’re interested you have to go on the website and read, IE click accept, on the filing before you can enter how many shares you’re interested in. ie. there is nothing you can do before the details are known? |
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Originally Posted By Morgan321: I assume this occurs once the IPO details like price, date, etc. are released? ie. there is nothing you can do before the details are known? Heres a screen shot of the details in one of their emails. They’ll give you a range on the expected price but the actual price gets set right before it goes live. If you want shares you’ll have to download the preliminary prospectus (probably just a CYA move so you can’t claim you didn’t know what you bought) and the fill out the Indication of Interest during the open period. Attached File |
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Originally Posted By Procat: I would be surprised if SpaceX cut Robinhood out of the IPO. It wasn’t long ago that Robinhood offered incentives for people to move TSLA shares to the platform after another broker was alleged to be planning on using its clients shares to vote against Elon’s pay package. Elon has to know that the platform and its users have been big supporters of his and to cut them out would be a stab in the back. ETA: Attached File |
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Originally Posted By Procat: They’ll give you a range on the expected price but the actual price gets set right before it goes live. I just found this page on Fidelity's site that has it barney-style for us dummies, not sure why I didn't see it when I first looked the other day. |
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Originally Posted By Morgan321: Does the IPO price have to be within the expected range? I just found this page on Fidelity's site that has it barney-style for us dummies, not sure why I didn't see it when I first looked the other day. Originally Posted By Morgan321: Originally Posted By Procat: They’ll give you a range on the expected price but the actual price gets set right before it goes live. I just found this page on Fidelity's site that has it barney-style for us dummies, not sure why I didn't see it when I first looked the other day. The range is just a guide, it can be adjusted until the night before the IPO when the price is locked in. They might need to refile some stuff if the price is way outside the original range, but it's no big deal. |
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Do you guys using Fidelity know if IPO shares can be bought on margin? Google says no but the actual rules seem to indicate that the IPO shares aren’t marginable for 30 days and have to be paid for with cash. The implication would be that you could margin other positions to free up cash for the IPO shares. Logic is freeing up cash ahead of time would cause tax consequences so there’s no reason to do this if you don’t end up getting allocated. |
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Originally Posted By Procat: Are any of you playing the SpaceX IPO via EchoStar / $SATS? This telecom company holds 2-3% of SpaceX's equity that it got in exchange for spectrum licenses. Google has their SpaceX stake as being about 1/3 of their market cap but I've heard quotes as high as 2/3 so it must depend on what price you put on SpaceX. Been mulling this play over for a bit. Not willing to commit to the minimum to buy in the private market. At the same time I suspect the IPO will be oversubscribed and most of us little guys won't get allocated. $SATS might be a way to capture the potential initial pump and then convert to SpaceX once it levels off. Thoughts? |
Entitlements
Inhibit
Ambition
Compassion is a character flaw
Inhibit
Ambition
Compassion is a character flaw
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Thanks to this forum, I signed up for Fidelities IPO interest email list. Trying to do the same with Etrade and RobinHood too as I'm hedging for IPO shares all on 3 platforms. Here is an example of an email. The process is after the S-1 becomes public, there is a 1-2 week roadshow with institutional pricing being discussed in "confidential settings". Then within a few days of the official date, the price range is "set" etc. then the ofifical pricing. If someone wants to research the history, S-1 filings and pricing etc. Good case study in process. Attached File Edit: Well I bonked that as I didn't realize @Procat had already posted one  This one does have a few more details. Would not be suprised if the pricing range is $55-$63 and then opening is at $67. |