SpaceX IPO (Page 2 of 7)
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I got that one and another for an actual IPO. Once they show up on Fidelity's website there is a link to IOI. I'm debating opening etrade/hood/sofi accounts in hopes of getting in on the spacex..... but unsure of details like how much warning you get, when you need to have the money in your account, and if being a new customer of the above places would reduce the chance of you getting some IPO shares. Can you transfer taxable shares between brokerages? ie. if I get some on sofi could I xfer the shares to fidelity? I'm not interested in keeping accounts at any of the above places. |
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Originally Posted By Morgan321: Any thoughts on if it's worth the effort to open accounts at new brokerages in hopes of getting in on the IPO? Not really but I suppose it couldn’t hurt. My issue, as I mentioned before with a Robinhood example, is that with brokers that allocate proportionally based on demand you might only get a few shares. I’m usually managing a lot of positions (currently 55-60 if you include options) so if you’re only going to give me 5 shares when I want hundreds I’d rather not get any at all. On a related note one of my mentors told me that his former employer’s models are predicting the IPO will be 20-30x oversubscribed so getting allocated will be tough. |
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Originally Posted By Procat: My issue, as I mentioned before with a Robinhood example, is that with brokers that allocate proportionally based on demand you might only get a few shares. .......... if you’re only going to give me 5 shares when I want hundreds I’d rather not get any at all. On a related note one of my mentors told me that his former employer’s models are predicting the IPO will be 20-30x oversubscribed so getting allocated will be tough. I'm sure it will be a frenzy, which is why I am leaning to sticking with Fidelity. I figured Fidelity surely factors in things like account age and total assets if demand outstrips supply, and I'm above average on both. So why bother with another place where I'd be just another new customer? I've hitched my horse to the fidelity post for a long time and they haven't let me down yet! |
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E-trade (Morgan Stanley) is holding the largest book and will be the lead while they distribute outwardly. This one is different as reading they are doing a global book of banking to drive the price upwards. Looking at the IOI dates/ranges, I suspect you have to come up with the funds near the last day/date of the range, just my opinion. I am hedging pretty hard: Moved $50k into Etrade Moved $50k into Fidelity Moved $10k into RobinHood. At least these will be holding accounts until I get a better lay of the land or rules to the game on the IOI or commitments. If I can push up and go $100k for any of them and $0 on the other, I might float it and then pull my money out during or afterwards. If I can't move the money out quick enough, I'll just make a day 1 minute 1 market purchase. The rest of my purchasing blocks are in various Vanguard accounts so not stressing it too far. |
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Originally Posted By Morgan321: Are fidelity or other places all/nothing? I mean, if you have customers who want 1million shares and the brokerage only gets 100k there are going to be people left wanting... In that scenario I suspect they just take care of their biggest customers and once the shares run out everyone below that level is SOL. |
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Originally Posted By Morgan321: I got that one and another for an actual IPO. Once they show up on Fidelity's website there is a link to IOI. I'm debating opening etrade/hood/sofi accounts in hopes of getting in on the spacex..... but unsure of details like how much warning you get, when you need to have the money in your account, and if being a new customer of the above places would reduce the chance of you getting some IPO shares. Can you transfer taxable shares between brokerages? ie. if I get some on sofi could I xfer the shares to fidelity? I'm not interested in keeping accounts at any of the above places. You will be notified if you were allocated shares either the night before or the morning of the first day of trading. Typically you have three business days after the first day of trading to fund the purchase, funds from selling the IPO shares are not eligible as payment, if you don't pay the shares are removed and you are responsible for any losses, but forfeit any gains. |
| Heard a rumor that the lock up period is being waived for private market investors as they’ve successfully negotiated getting fast tracked into the S&P and Nasdaq. I had heard that they were in talks with the indexes to change the rules but not seeing anything concrete as of yet. Anyone else hear about this? |
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Originally Posted By Procat: Heard a rumor that the lock up period is being waived for private market investors as they’ve successfully negotiated getting fast tracked into the S&P and Nasdaq. I had heard that they were in talks with the indexes to change the rules but not seeing anything concrete as of yet. Anyone else hear about this? I've heard rumors about a plan to stagger the lock up periods for different groups to try to reduce the volatility of having everybody trying to sell on day 180 and increase the available shares for when index tracking funds start buying. This of course has no effect on any retail investors that might get some shares in the IPO, you can sell immediately, the only penalty is your broker might prevent you from getting in on new IPO's if the think you are flipping the shares. |
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Doesn’t Fidelity have a retail OTC program where you can buy SpaceX now? I don’t mean the IPO public share reservation program, rather pre-IPO ones. It makes up like 5% of FOCPX, for what it’s worth. So Fidelity definitely has OTC shares, whether or not they’ll let us buy them specifically. |
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That FOCPX looked like an interesting ticker. The drawdowns have me sketched out. I happened to learn tonight the FCNTX (the big name Contra fund) also has Space X. I feel alot more comfortable with that because I've already owned it for a long time. FDGRX also has it. |
Callsign-ChuckYeager
That man is a homo and a liar-TrojanMan
Hell, a Ford just breaks down on you. It doesn't fall apart AND try to kill you at the same time-Bloodsport2885
That man is a homo and a liar-TrojanMan
Hell, a Ford just breaks down on you. It doesn't fall apart AND try to kill you at the same time-Bloodsport2885
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Originally Posted By grendelbane: Using your theory, every publicly traded stock sucks. A quick glance at various indices over the years indicates this is not the case. Doesn't mean that SpaceX won't suck after an IPO, but it is certainly not guaranteed. |
callmenoshie: "saying that females have the potential to be "bat shit crazy" is like saying the sky has the potential to be blue."
XCRmonger: "I've seen German Shit Porn that was sexier."
XCRmonger: "I've seen German Shit Porn that was sexier."
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I picked up some FOCPX but put a decent amount into DXYZ Destiny Tech100 last week. It's already up a bit. From Google: DXYZ is a publicly traded closed-end investment fund that owns shares in SpaceX, allowing retail investors to gain exposure to the private company. SpaceX is the largest holding in the DXYZ portfolio, representing roughly 23-35% of its total assets. What do you guys think about DXYZ? I'm too small fries of an investor to get in on the IPO but if this pumps I'll sell it and buy SpaceX when shares are available a few months after the IPO. |
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Originally Posted By Chromekilla: That FOCPX looked like an interesting ticker. The drawdowns have me sketched out.... That's not much exposure if you wish you could hold space x stock. Anything like this is going to be more volatile simply due to holding more tech stocks. Some smart guy once said "Without risk there can be no reward". I bought a bit of that bptrx yesterday since it's currently 1/3 space x. The fees are nuts because it's leveraged, so it's a "buy now and sell at a (hopefully) higher price in a couple months after IPO". |
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Originally Posted By SkiandShoot: Buckle up. June 12. SPCX as I had predicted. Cbrs is a test case. I wheeled into mostly cash and the truck is anxiously burning diesel on idle  C'mon June 12 |
Callsign-ChuckYeager
That man is a homo and a liar-TrojanMan
Hell, a Ford just breaks down on you. It doesn't fall apart AND try to kill you at the same time-Bloodsport2885
That man is a homo and a liar-TrojanMan
Hell, a Ford just breaks down on you. It doesn't fall apart AND try to kill you at the same time-Bloodsport2885
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Originally Posted By GraboidHunter: ………..as various funds and individuals liquidate holdings in order to buy Space X. Will they though? SpaceX is only raising around $75B from what I’m hearing, most of the valuation is just bringing private shares public. Everything hinges on the early investors and if they cash out and how they handle any lock up period. Hate to be that guy but the more I look into this IPO the more I think it’s going to be a giant rug pull. It makes sense that Elon worked to get the rules changed so it could get into the S&P and Nasdaq 100 ASAP if early investors cash out. They’ll need that index fund $ to offset the outflows. I’m bullish SpaceX long term but for the time being you are basically just buying Starlink. Data centers in space, asteroid mining, moon bases, ect is just vapor ware right now. You have a $1.75T company that did less than $20B revenue last year. Launching rockets is impressive but as an investor in private space there really isn’t much $ in launch. The price per KG in orbit has been a race to the bottom to get cost down, ultimately what you’re launching is what really matters. The fact that SpaceX also entered into a deal where Anthropic is using their Colossus 1 facility is also concerning. It points to xAI not having the business to utilize the capacity so it’s being used for Claude instead. Hope I’m wrong but I see several scenarios where this is the classic pump and dump IPO. I plan on selling my proxy plays into the pump but I’m not bold enough to actively bet against Elon. |
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Originally Posted By Procat: Will they though? SpaceX is only raising around $75B from what I'm hearing, most of the valuation is just bringing private shares public. Everything hinges on the early investors and if they cash out and how they handle any lock up period. Hate to be that guy but the more I look into this IPO the more I think it's going to be a giant rug pull. It makes sense that Elon worked to get the rules changed so it could get into the S&P and Nasdaq 100 ASAP if early investors cash out. They'll need that index fund $ to offset the outflows. I'm bullish SpaceX long term but for the time being you are basically just buying Starlink. Data centers in space, asteroid mining, moon bases, ect is just vapor ware right now. You have a $1.75T company that did less than $20B revenue last year. Launching rockets is impressive but as an investor in private space there really isn't much $ in launch. The price per KG in orbit has been a race to the bottom to get cost down, ultimately what you're launching is what really matters. The fact that SpaceX also entered into a deal where Anthropic is using their Colossus 1 facility is also concerning. It points to xAI not having the business to utilize the capacity so it's being used for Claude instead. Hope I'm wrong but I see several scenarios where this is the classic pump and dump IPO. I plan on selling my proxy plays into the pump but I'm not bold enough to actively bet against Elon. |
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Originally Posted By GSPatton: I hear ya, but you have to consider that SpaceX does not have any competitors. You sure about that? You should look into Rocket Lab and their HASTE program and the DOD / DOW launches they’ve been doing. Then consider that they recently inked a deal with Anduril for more launches. One big issue with this space is that if the government wants something highly classified put into orbit they aren’t going to want to “ride share” with a bunch of other satellites from other nations / private businesses / research organizations. This is where a small vehicle like Rocket Lab’s Electron shines. |
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Originally Posted By Procat: Hate to be that guy but the more I look into this IPO the more I think it’s going to be a giant rug pull. Getting early entrance to index funds is lame. If this thing drills after weaseling in, it might harm passive index investor confidence for a decade or four. It’s definitely something I think about. |
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Originally Posted By 1168RGR: If this thing drills after weaseling in, it might harm passive index investor confidence for a decade or four. It’s definitely something I think about. Passive index investor confidence is very, very high. I think it can take a hit. |
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Originally Posted By Procat: You sure about that? You should look into Rocket Lab and their HASTE program and the DOD / DOW launches they’ve been doing. Then consider that they recently inked a deal with Anduril for more launches. One big issue with this space is that if the government wants something highly classified put into orbit they aren’t going to want to “ride share” with a bunch of other satellites from other nations / private businesses / research organizations. This is where a small vehicle like Rocket Lab’s Electron shines. Originally Posted By Procat: Originally Posted By GSPatton: I hear ya, but you have to consider that SpaceX does not have any competitors. You sure about that? You should look into Rocket Lab and their HASTE program and the DOD / DOW launches they’ve been doing. Then consider that they recently inked a deal with Anduril for more launches. One big issue with this space is that if the government wants something highly classified put into orbit they aren’t going to want to “ride share” with a bunch of other satellites from other nations / private businesses / research organizations. This is where a small vehicle like Rocket Lab’s Electron shines. Spy satellites have unlimited budgets and they can afford to pay the cost to launch anytime they want. They are also small in quantity, so building a business model around them is not a good idea. Spacex will have some competition in niche areas, but their money printing machine will run on mass into space, starlink, etc. and by those metrics they won’t have any serious competition for a very long time. It is a fair concern to wonder about that market though… starlink will print money for a long time but nowhere near enough for a $1-2trillion valuation. I also wonder how much will change about what starlink does once their activities and budgets become publicly available due to going public. What will the stock price do once their activities are detailed on the evening news as a waste of money because talking heads brought in by musk haters say spacex isn’t doing things “the established way”, despite that being the singular thing that made them successful? SLS is dictated by law, what happens when the next big .gov space program is up for grabs? Will the commies in congress support spacex being involved? 
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@Morgan321 I brought up HASTE because Golden Dome had been mentioned and the DOW hypersonic testing is alleged to be related to that. Again, just putting mass into space isn’t a lucrative business. The money is made off what you’re putting up there. Right now for SpaceX that’s Starlink. All the other projects that get brought up are likely a decade or more away and the $75B they’re raising won’t come close to paying for their development. |
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Originally Posted By SkiandShoot: Feels like Reddit up in here. How many of you recent posters have conviction to short and bet against this versus just typing up long posts for free? I don’t short stocks and i sure wouldn’t start with one of Elon’s companies. You’re confusing my not being bullish with being bearish which I’m not. Astronomical amounts of money will be made here but it’s not set in stone which side of the trade wins over different time horizons. I raised some serious issues in post #23 above that no one has yet to address. Even scarier is that everyone I’ve talked to IRL who’s excited for the IPO doesn’t seem to know that any of these issues exist. There’s a disconnect where lots of people are giddy about the company without really understanding what they do or the private space industry in general. That’s euphoria and it’s very dangerous in markets. |
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Originally Posted By grendelbane: Passive index investor confidence is very, very high. I think it can take a hit. Originally Posted By SkiandShoot: Feels like Reddit up in here. How many of you recent posters have conviction to short and bet against this versus just typing up long posts for free? Doesn’t mean I don’t take interest in the company and its stock. |
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Originally Posted By 1168RGR: Because of trust in the inclusion and weighting mechanisms. I don’t think so. I don’t believe the very, very high levels of passive index investor’s confidence is rational. I doubt most index fund investors spend much time considering trust in the inclusion and weighing mechanisms. Those with a reasonable level of confidence in passive index fund investing likely pay more attention to the inclusion and weighing mechanisms than those with an irrational confidence. The times I bought index funds I did so because it was quick and convenient with a good chance of success long term. So I am guilty of not considering the inclusion and weighing mechanisms also. |
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Originally Posted By grendelbane: I don’t think so. I don’t believe the very, very high levels of passive index investor’s confidence is rational. I doubt most index fund investors spend much time considering trust in the inclusion and weighing mechanisms. Those with a reasonable level of confidence in passive index fund investing likely pay more attention to the inclusion and weighing mechanisms than those with an irrational confidence. The times I bought index funds I did so because it was quick and convenient with a good chance of success long term. So I am guilty of not considering the inclusion and weighing mechanisms also. Interesting perspective. Maybe I give the average investor too much credit for how they choose what they buy. |
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Originally Posted By 1168RGR: Interesting perspective. Maybe I give the average investor too much credit for how they choose what they buy. Some investors choose index funds for invalid reasons. There are certainly valid reasons why one might choose an index fund. |
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Originally Posted By Chokey:
I wish those fuckers could be blocked from owning shares. Would also be nice if retail could buy as much as they want before corporate. |
Callsign-ChuckYeager
That man is a homo and a liar-TrojanMan
Hell, a Ford just breaks down on you. It doesn't fall apart AND try to kill you at the same time-Bloodsport2885
That man is a homo and a liar-TrojanMan
Hell, a Ford just breaks down on you. It doesn't fall apart AND try to kill you at the same time-Bloodsport2885
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Originally Posted By Chromekilla: I wish those fuckers could be blocked from owning shares. Would also be nice if retail could buy as much as they want before corporate. Much of the hate you hear about Blackrock buying up everything is because the person presenting their point of view has confused them with another similarly named company. |
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Originally Posted By Chromekilla: I wish those fuckers could be blocked from owning shares. Would also be nice if retail could buy as much as they want before corporate. Consider opening your mind 1 notch on this one. For this ipo, this is a GOOD thing. The float will probably be about 4.5% with about 450 million TOTAL shares available at an institutional price around $150. It will be oversubscribed by 30x-40x. You need several anchor plays such as blackrock to scoop up 65m shares and institutions to solidify. Meanwhile Musk stated he’s not selling while isnituuons need to own funds NOW for their mutual funds etc. While the early investors will be in lock for the first 15 days; hence there is no pump and dump. There isn’t anyone to pump in dump. The early investors will probably meter out their share over time especially with various index’s allowing for inclusion. Again, the shares have to come from somewhere. This is going to mimic Cerberus from last week but the book won’t cross/close until the oversubscription mark well after 1pm probably in the $350-$450 range per share. The first day closing price, it will never be any cheaper. 30% is reserved for retail (led by Morgan Stanley /etrade) so 15m+ shares have to be reserve for open market not institutions). Musk didn’t have to do that. |
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Originally Posted By SkiandShoot: This is going to mimic Cerberus from last week The Cerebras IPO is the exact scenario I’m concerned about. They priced their IPO at $185 but it opened at $350. It pumped as high as $386.xx and then started pulling back. As I type this it’s $264 in the overnight market. |
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Originally Posted By Voland: So how does one get in on the ipo? Lets say i want to invest 250 to 500k? Depends on your brokerage account and relationships. Fidelity the minimum account cash balance is $500k. Pulled my money out and consolidated. The highest probability on spacex is Etrade. Have a cash balance then click on the IOI for IPO’s. Etrade might might be a $50k minimum. For reference, I’m submitting in for a $250k allocation through etrade so I’m consolidating and moving cash this week. Probability of getting even 10% an allocation is low. The bigger your account balance, the higher probability. Whatever allocation I don’t get, I’ll stage/stagger buys at various price points pre opening and opening day. |
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Originally Posted By SkiandShoot: Depends on your brokerage account and relationships. Fidelity the minimum account cash balance is $500k. Pulled my money out and consolidated. The highest probability on spacex is Etrade. Have a cash balance then click on the IOI for IPO’s. Etrade might might be a $50k minimum. For reference, I’m submitting in for a $250k allocation through etrade so I’m consolidating and moving cash this week. Probability of getting even 10% an allocation is low. The bigger your account balance, the higher probability. Whatever allocation I don’t get, I’ll stage/stagger buys at various price points pre opening and opening day. Originally Posted By SkiandShoot: Originally Posted By Voland: So how does one get in on the ipo? Lets say i want to invest 250 to 500k? Depends on your brokerage account and relationships. Fidelity the minimum account cash balance is $500k. Pulled my money out and consolidated. The highest probability on spacex is Etrade. Have a cash balance then click on the IOI for IPO’s. Etrade might might be a $50k minimum. For reference, I’m submitting in for a $250k allocation through etrade so I’m consolidating and moving cash this week. Probability of getting even 10% an allocation is low. The bigger your account balance, the higher probability. Whatever allocation I don’t get, I’ll stage/stagger buys at various price points pre opening and opening day. Nice. Thanks. I can pull that together pretty quickly and yeah, id love to get my hands on even 50k at ipo pricing vs retail. the jump at open is going to be significant. I called fidelity this morning and inquired. Lets see what they say. |
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Maybe I'm behind the times, but 5-1 stock split this week and begin trading on 12 June. Also many articles about volatility and/or downside risks. Most center around Elon having too much control (ie. doing what he wants rather than what is most profitable) or concerns about the stock coming out of the gate overvalued. The stock split will be processed this week and is expected to be officially completed by May 22, the sources said. News of the split comes as SpaceX is quickly headed toward the public markets. On Friday, Reuters reported that SpaceX is planning to price its IPO as early as June 11, with the rocket company listing on the Nasdaq starting on June 12. The acceleration of the IPO timeline means the company is aiming to publicly disclose its IPO prospectus (S-1 filing) as early as this Wednesday, with investor roadshows starting on June 4, per Reuters sources. |
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Originally Posted By Morgan321: @voland What service/office did you talk to and did they give you any info that isn't already on their website? Originally Posted By Morgan321: Originally Posted By Voland: I called fidelity this morning and inquired. Lets see what they say. I spoke with my advisor this morning. He is trying to get more info, but so far, he didnt have anything they didn't already publish. |
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Originally Posted By Voland: I spoke with my advisor this morning. He is trying to get more info, but so far, he didnt have anything they didn't already publish. If you google “Fidelity IPO calendar” you can find the page that shows what they have coming up. As of yesterday SpaceX isn’t on there yet. |
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Originally Posted By Procat: If you google “Fidelity IPO calendar” you can find the page that shows what they have coming up. As of yesterday SpaceX isn’t on there yet. Originally Posted By Procat: Originally Posted By Voland: I spoke with my advisor this morning. He is trying to get more info, but so far, he didnt have anything they didn't already publish. If you google “Fidelity IPO calendar” you can find the page that shows what they have coming up. As of yesterday SpaceX isn’t on there yet. Yep, also, get prequalified as an acredited investor to save time. |
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Originally Posted By Voland: I spoke with my advisor this morning. He is trying to get more info, but so far, he didnt have anything they didn't already publish. Originally Posted By Voland: I spoke with my advisor this morning. He is trying to get more info, but so far, he didnt have anything they didn't already publish. Originally Posted By Voland: Yep, also, get prequalified as an acredited investor to save time. |