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Posted: 5/1/2023 8:11:38 AM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: I know you want to use this as some sort of "gotcha" moment being its 0630 and we have no way of knowing how many missiles were actually fired. Ukrainian sources posted in this thread ranged from 23 to 50+, I took the low end. However we absolutely have seen regular salvos of 50-100 when counting OWA drones, which if engaged by an S300 or patriot served their purpose. You just don't like my point because it doesn't serve your emotional agenda. What is your point? |
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Posted: 5/1/2023 8:13:43 AM EDT
[Last Edit: daemon734]
[#2]
Disengaging
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Posted: 5/1/2023 8:16:03 AM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: Please, feel free to give us your solution. So far it consists of pretending the problem doesn't exist, or pretending the problem doesn't matter. That's rich. When asked the same thing, your response was "That's not my job." |
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Posted: 5/1/2023 8:18:36 AM EDT
[Last Edit: daemon734]
[#4]
Disengaging
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Posted: 5/1/2023 8:24:08 AM EDT
[Last Edit: daemon734]
[#5]
Disengaging
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Posted: 5/1/2023 8:25:50 AM EDT
[Last Edit: SmilingBandit]
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: Please, feel free to give us your solution. So far it consists of pretending the problem doesn't exist, or pretending the problem doesn't matter. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: Originally Posted By SmilingBandit: No solution other than blaming the previous guy. You have a good future in politics when you are done with the Army.  Please, feel free to give us your solution. So far it consists of pretending the problem doesn't exist, or pretending the problem doesn't matter. Truthfully they will have to at a certain point accept being unable to stop cruise missiles coming through in order to keep enough ADA in reserve to prohibit enemy jet activity. You can keep hand-wringing in every thread about it but that's about it unless the world does something to stop Iran from delivering these to Ukraine which seems unlikely. Also, I'd like to point out how mind boggling it is that Iran and some guys with FPV drone parts in Ukraine are outproducing us in this new way that war is being waged. That should be our immediate goal to fix. And IMHO, it won't be fixed by Raython or LMCO. |
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Posted: 5/1/2023 8:27:38 AM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: I dont know the solution. We are so deep in mistakes I dont see one. Acknowledging the problem is step one in problem solving, so I've at least made it there, unlike you. I think you've vastly overstated the problem for the sake of arriving at "there is no solution, all is lost." But I guess we'll find out soon. According to you. |
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Posted: 5/1/2023 8:32:01 AM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By SmilingBandit: Truthfully they will have to at a certain point accept being unable to stop cruise missiles coming through in order to keep enough ADA in reserve to prohibit enemy jet activity. You can keep hand-wringing in every thread about it but that's about it unless the world does something to stop Iran from delivering these to Ukraine which seems unlikely. Also, I'd like to point out how mind boggling it is that Iran and some guys with FPV drone parts in Ukraine are outproducing us in this new way that war is being waged. That should be our immediate goal to fix. And IMHO, it won't be fixed by Raython or LMCO. Nyet. Ukraine surrendered after several months of long range missile strikes last year. It was in all the papers. |
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Posted: 5/1/2023 8:32:09 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#9]
Note- Armenia, Brazil, China, India, and Kazakhstan.
 https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/LTD/N23/116/57/PDF/N2311657.pdf?OpenElement |
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Posted: 5/1/2023 8:34:56 AM EDT
[Last Edit: daemon734]
[#10]
Disengaging
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Posted: 5/1/2023 8:38:22 AM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: By who? It doesn't matter how many the Russians actually launched, what matters is how many the Ukrainians did. If they believe they shot down 20+ targets they used up at least that many. Once again, how many missiles do.you think are in these single batteries they recieved? Do you think its in the hundreds? Yes, months ago they were launching salvos of 50-100, every week or two. After Orthodox Christmas, that cadence rapidly diminished to launches of 10-20 more like 4 weeks apart. Russia is never "going to run out of missiles", but their cadence has cut back drastically the last 3-4 months. |
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Posted: 5/1/2023 8:42:58 AM EDT
[Last Edit: daemon734]
[#12]
Disengaging
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Posted: 5/1/2023 8:43:20 AM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: The plan was tenuous at best before 3000 Iranian drones showed up. Then we gave them the time and space to start building their own. We've known about them for years, since before Aramco. Shit, ive got two shaheds in my trailer right now. The problem is nobody took it seriously. As you can see in this thread people still don't. I never said all is lost. I said it will be without a major shift. I dont know what the shift can or should be, I was advocating addressing this years ago but apparantly people smarter than me decided it wasn't a concern. You can honestly think what you'd like, I really don't expect you to understand any of this and I'm not surprised in the least that you don't. You said "the tanks won't matter." What does that mean? What do you expect will happen if Ukraine goes back to 8 or 10 months ago when a good portion of russian long range fires got through to their apartment buildings and power plants? Do you think these long range fires will be able to interdict the flow of munitions from Poland? They weren't able to even when Ukraine's air defense capability was at it's weakest. I'm no military expert but I can read, remember, and aggregate the things you say. |
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Posted: 5/1/2023 8:46:07 AM EDT
[Last Edit: daemon734]
[#14]
Disengaging
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Posted: 5/1/2023 8:46:26 AM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: Lol, a report that came out after I posted that, one of about a dozen varying reports, and we still don't even know is confirmed or not. I guess you got me. So where did your figure of 50 to 100 come from? |
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Posted: 5/1/2023 8:46:58 AM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AROKIE: The cost of AD isn't based upon the cost of the missile..it's the cost of not shooting incoming down and the damage they would do..an Incoming missile can destroy millions in lives and property.. so you really cannot challenge the use of a multimillion dollar missile to shoot down a 100 thousand dollar cruise missile or drone No. Militaries do not think like that and they shouldn’t. Ukraine has less AD missiles than Russia has missiles and drones. If they use all the AD up trying to stop every attack going against non critical infrastructure then they become vulnerable to more attacks that will cause far more deaths. You have to think of it like a triage. Save who you know you can first and then if you have the resources and ability save more people. But if you use everything up saving just a few people the whole country dies. |
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Posted: 5/1/2023 8:50:34 AM EDT
[Last Edit: daemon734]
[#17]
Disengaging
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Posted: 5/1/2023 8:54:27 AM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: Lol, a report that came out after I posted that, one of about a dozen varying reports, and we still don't even know is confirmed or not. I guess you got me. The reports as they come in are going to be way higher than the final tally, that's pretty understandable. The fact that Russia bought Iranian moped drones at all and that they need to save up for a month to launch 18 Kh-101s and Kh-555s does not indicate that Russia is coping with brain drain and sanctions well. You're absolutely right, stuff is finite. That goes both ways though. If nobody here knows what Russia's defense manufacturing capabilities really are right now, this is just stupid slapfight. |
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Posted: 5/1/2023 8:59:52 AM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: Lol, a report that came out after I posted that, one of about a dozen varying reports, and we still don't even know is confirmed or not. I guess you got me.  I know it's early, but I think 2:17am is earlier than 7:43am. Correct me if I'm wrong. And the report was from the CIC of the AFU. Missile attrition of both sides is a good discussion to have, but comparing Russia's cadence from Oct to Dec 2022 and Jan 2023 to today shows a drastic slow down. Will it pick up to the late 2022 cadence again? Maybe, but I have my doubts. And no one said "Russian deep fires will be black any day now". We said they will slow down to what they can produce, and by golly they have slowed down. Russia is never "going to fire it's last missile". |
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Posted: 5/1/2023 9:00:33 AM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: The plan was tenuous at best before 3000 Iranian drones showed up. Then we gave them the time and space to start building their own. We've known about them for years, since before Aramco. Shit, ive got two shaheds in my trailer right now. The problem is nobody took it seriously. As you can see in this thread people still don't. I never said all is lost. I said it will be without a major shift. I dont know what the shift can or should be, I was advocating addressing this years ago but apparantly people smarter than me decided it wasn't a concern. You can honestly think what you'd like, I really don't expect you to understand any of this and I'm not surprised in the least that you don't. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: Originally Posted By SmilingBandit: Truthfully they will have to at a certain point accept being unable to stop cruise missiles coming through in order to keep enough ADA in reserve to prohibit enemy jet activity. You can keep hand-wringing in every thread about it but that's about it unless the world does something to stop Iran from delivering these to Ukraine which seems unlikely. Also, I'd like to point out how mind boggling it is that Iran and some guys with FPV drone parts in Ukraine are outproducing us in this new way that war is being waged. That should be our immediate goal to fix. And IMHO, it won't be fixed by Raython or LMCO. The plan was tenuous at best before 3000 Iranian drones showed up. Then we gave them the time and space to start building their own. We've known about them for years, since before Aramco. Shit, ive got two shaheds in my trailer right now. The problem is nobody took it seriously. As you can see in this thread people still don't. Originally Posted By 1Andy2: I think you've vastly overstated the problem for the sake of arriving at "there is no solution, all is lost." But I guess we'll find out soon. According to you. I never said all is lost. I said it will be without a major shift. I dont know what the shift can or should be, I was advocating addressing this years ago but apparantly people smarter than me decided it wasn't a concern. You can honestly think what you'd like, I really don't expect you to understand any of this and I'm not surprised in the least that you don't. So all is lost may as well capitulate now.  From now on I'm going to call you Eeyore. |
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Posted: 5/1/2023 9:00:38 AM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BustinCaps: As long as Ukraine is forced to make do with weapons that can’t eliminate some of the attritional points in Russias favor, this war will continue on as the horror it is until one side is exhausted. The math is in Russias favor there I believe. The slow roll pussy footing of aid is a great way to turn an ally into an enemy should the ally lose and a political voice demagogue on the fact it was the fault of “the west”. We’ll see how the summer goes. If we are still static by fall this whole caper is going to begin to look like the greatest foreign policy failure of generations. If Ukraine loses, it will be squarely on Biden’s shoulders. They as a people have shown serious balls. You are correct. Ukraine is doing everything they can with what they have. But the US and Western Europe is slow rolling weapons and simply not giving them what they need. I don’t think our current government wants this war to end. If they did Ukraine would have the weapons to hit deep into Russia supply lines and the drones to swarm them. People keep saying Russia will run out of this or that and that has not been the case. To much of the world is supporting them with trade and direct material support. They also are switching their whole economy onto a war footing. Which is what we here in the US should be doing so we can properly support Ukraine and to deter China. I hope Ukraine’s offensive starts soon and pushes the bear back. It’s going to be a long summer for them. |
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Posted: 5/1/2023 9:02:53 AM EDT
[Last Edit: daemon734]
[#22]
Disengaging
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USA
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Posted: 5/1/2023 9:05:48 AM EDT
[#23]
I'll stick by my initial assessment: Russia cannot outproduce the combined production of the US, UK, France, Germany, Canada, Italy, Poland, Japan, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, etc. etc. etc. Any counter argument is complete BS.
There's a reason Russia is rolling in 40+ year old tanks and Ukraine is getting more and more modern equipment. Quit trying to carry Putin's jock. |
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Posted: 5/1/2023 9:07:51 AM EDT
[Last Edit: daemon734]
[#24]
Disengaging
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Posted: 5/1/2023 9:16:08 AM EDT
[Last Edit: daemon734]
[#25]
Disengaging
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USA
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Posted: 5/1/2023 9:16:34 AM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryWhat is that?
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Posted: 5/1/2023 9:25:01 AM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Billy_Ringo: I'll stick by my initial assessment: Russia cannot outproduce the combined production of the US, UK, France, Germany, Canada, Italy, Poland, Japan, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, etc. etc. etc. Any counter argument is complete BS. There's a reason Russia is rolling in 40+ year old tanks and Ukraine is getting more and more modern equipment. Quit trying to carry Putin's jock. Your assessment is correct. But you fail to realize that the West isn’t giving Ukraine that production capacity. People stating that are not carrying Putin’s jock and people should stop with the personal attacks when people point that out. It’s obvious that most everyone wants Ukraine to win. |
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FL, USA
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Posted: 5/1/2023 9:26:56 AM EDT
[#28]
As far as the AD assets go, how many of the Russian cruise missiles and drones are shot down with various long range missiles like Patriot, IRIS or S300, and how many with manpads, Gerards, AA guns or even plain old AK-47s?
From what I hear most of the drones are taken by machine guns. Even if Ukraine completely runs out of long range AD systems they’ll still have plenty of manpads to keep Russian airplanes away from the front lines just like they are doing it as we speak, so not much will change there. Russia on the other hand is fast running out of tanks, and without heavy equipment on the ground its air force will not be enough to make a difference. |
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MN, USA
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Posted: 5/1/2023 9:26:57 AM EDT
[#29]
Footage from SBS of Ukraine. has subtitles
"The fields are littered with bodies: wagner infantry storms Ukrainian positions in the Bakhmut area" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nrez6cHi7Ac |
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PA, USA
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Posted: 5/1/2023 9:31:14 AM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RockNwood: Ukraine getting done arty work in…
Looking at Google maps, Vasylivka is strategically important: - bridge crossing part of the Dnipro tributary - direct road access to Melitopol The bridge at Vasylivka needs to be under UA control for a push south, from Zaporizhzhia. 
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Posted: 5/1/2023 9:31:35 AM EDT
[Last Edit: daemon734]
[#31]
Disengaging
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Posted: 5/1/2023 9:33:36 AM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Haub: Footage from SBS of Ukraine. has subtitles "The fields are littered with bodies: wagner infantry storms Ukrainian positions in the Bakhmut area" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nrez6cHi7Ac 217,781 views May 1, 2023 In parallel with a battle for Bakhmut, which has turned into the epicenter of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, intense fighting continues around the city, where the "Wagner" PMC are also trying to advance. One of the hottest is the Soledar direction. However, the successes of the Russian forces here are much more modest than in the city itself. The positions on this part of the front are jointly held by border guards, servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and territorial defense. The results of their work are eloquently evidenced by the nearby fields littered with the bodies of the slain occupiers. Artillery shelling, shooting battles and "meat" assaults of "Wagner" - this is what the everyday life of DPSU servicemen looks like, which you can see in the video material.  ???? ?????? ??????: ?????? «???????» ??????? ?????????? ??????? ? ?????? ??????? (ENG + PL SUB) |
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Posted: 5/1/2023 9:35:29 AM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#33]
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Posted: 5/1/2023 9:40:20 AM EDT
[#34]
I do agree with daemon's overall point that trading very expensive Patriots/NASAMS/Iris-Ts/etc. for cheap Iranian drones is absolutely a losing trade and an easy way to cost "us" a lot of money quickly. I mentioned this way, way, way back in the thread when the Shaheds first started showing up.
Fortunately I think the Ukrainians realize this and that missiles are a more asset resource for use against cruise missiles and aircraft, which is why we've seen them form up drone hunter teams. https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukrainian-teams-hunt-russian-drones-with-laser-rifles-gun-trucks-apps Relatively cheap use anti-air guns like the Gepards would also seem to be a solution. I just don't understand his need to enter into every discussion on the subject of Ukraine with a massive chip on his shoulder and superiority complex to match. Does nothing to add to the discussion and wreaks of insecurity, which is a shame because I've always regarded him as a pretty smart guy with valuable insight. |
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USA
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Posted: 5/1/2023 9:47:01 AM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Billy_Ringo: I'll stick by my initial assessment: Russia cannot outproduce the combined production of the US, UK, France, Germany, Canada, Italy, Poland, Japan, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, etc. etc. etc. Any counter argument is complete BS. There's a reason Russia is rolling in 40+ year old tanks and Ukraine is getting more and more modern equipment. Quit trying to carry Putin's jock. Bingo…even their new stuff is old really…their tech sucks… |
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USA
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Posted: 5/1/2023 9:47:31 AM EDT
[#36]
I’m not even surprised that the thread has gone the direction it has in the past few pages.
Where have we seen this before? |
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Posted: 5/1/2023 9:48:27 AM EDT
[Last Edit: daemon734]
[#37]
Disengaging
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Posted: 5/1/2023 9:54:21 AM EDT
[#38]
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Posted: 5/1/2023 9:56:33 AM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#39]
Not an Excalibur.
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Posted: 5/1/2023 9:59:01 AM EDT
[#40]
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AZ, USA
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Posted: 5/1/2023 9:59:33 AM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Patriot earning it's keep tonight.
Why are both these tweets blocked? |
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USA
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Posted: 5/1/2023 9:59:44 AM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By daemon734: You do know that as part of Russia's hybrid war concept, they acknowledged their inability to field a modern conventional ground force, and instead opted to invest heavily on A2AD, LR Fires, IO/EW and economic warfare right? Exactly the things that are becoming problems. A. Anti-Access threats, electronic warfare and economic warfare? Really? That's going to win this war for Russia? Nice little acronyms you throw out there but those are nothing more than speed bumps. As you said yourself--Russia can't field a modern conventional ground force, and what they have is slowly diminishing. |
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Posted: 5/1/2023 9:59:53 AM EDT
[#43]
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Posted: 5/1/2023 10:01:32 AM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AZ_Mike: Why are both these tweets blocked? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AZ_Mike: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Patriot earning it's keep tonight.
Why are both these tweets blocked? They are blocked to me too this morning. I guess he decided to limit who could see them after he posted last night. 
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Posted: 5/1/2023 10:03:51 AM EDT
[#45]
I think this is the 3rd day of Russian reports of heavy Ukrainian shelling in this area.
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Posted: 5/1/2023 10:06:08 AM EDT
[#46]
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Posted: 5/1/2023 10:06:30 AM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#47]
The number of invaders who are fighting against Ukrainian forces in the Bakhmut direction reaches 25.6 thousand, - speaker of the eastern group of troops. Also, 65 tanks, 450 infantry fighting vehicles, 154 cannons and 56 multiple rocket launchers. That's how much Russian forces are pinned down in Bakhmut.... just saying for those who already in January were saying Ukraine has to give up. Today is May 1st...
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Posted: 5/1/2023 10:09:01 AM EDT
[#48]
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Posted: 5/1/2023 10:09:32 AM EDT
[Last Edit: daemon734]
[#49]
Disengaging
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USA
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Posted: 5/1/2023 10:11:15 AM EDT
[#50]
I'm curious what A-10 can do in Syria that they can't do in Ukraine.
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