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Posted: 12/17/2022 9:01:05 AM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By mercersfinest4: “Efforts to track weapons in Ukraine have shown very little evidence of systems’ being diverted, the officials said” I read this article as Washington sending in more tracking personnel as it sends more systems and also due to pressure from house Republicans. I don’t see anything in between the lines about UKR mismanagement. There will inevitably have to be a process of determining whether black market weapons were misappropriated by Ukrainians or captured/recovered by Russians, who will sell their own shit, let alone anyone else’s. 🤷♂️ |
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USA
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Posted: 12/17/2022 9:08:53 AM EDT
[Last Edit: fisherman]
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By mercersfinest4: “Efforts to track weapons in Ukraine have shown very little evidence of systems’ being diverted, the officials said” I read this article as Washington sending in more tracking personnel as it sends more systems and also due to pressure from house Republicans. I don’t see anything in between the lines about UKR mismanagement. On a regular basis we see AUK troops standing beside sizable amounts of found and captured RU munitions. They are putting to good use in small return shipments to the original owners. You would have to be foolish to think that RU dont capture AFU munitions from time to time and given their inate level of corruption why would anyone be surprised they would either sell it or make sure it turns up where it's not supposed to be for propaganda purposes or both? Why no questions in the media or this thread about RU weapons and munitions on the black market? The answer starts with a t and ends with a rolls that's why. |
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Posted: 12/17/2022 9:33:56 AM EDT
[#3]
The country code for Ukraine is UA.
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Posted: 12/17/2022 9:56:03 AM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By JustaGunNut: Seems like a lot of extra sensor integration to get those cruise missile kills. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By JustaGunNut: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By JustaGunNut: Does the patriot have decent capability against terrain following targets like cruise missiles? I always understood it was geared towards medium/short range ballistic missiles like the iskander. It got a lot of upgrades to go after cruise missiles and actually low observable radar targets. It's Wiki, but scroll down to the "Variants" section of missiles used with the system along with software and hardware upgrades that keeps it up to date. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIM-104_Patriot From 2012: https://www.dote.osd.mil/Portals/97/pub/reports/FY2012/army/2012patriot.pdf?ver=2019-08-22-111732-957 Engaged and intercepted a cruise missile target with a GEM-T missile in the debris field resulting from the destruction of the two tactical ballistic missile targets. During the first Integrated Fire Control flight test (IFC-1) at the Utah Test and Training Range in April 2012, Patriot fired a PAC-3 CRI missile at a cruise missile target using a Joint Land Attack Cruise Missile Defense Elevated Netted Sensor System cue. The PAC-3 missile intercepted the target During the FMS G-2 missile flight test at WSMR in March 2012, Patriot intercepted a cruise missile target with a GEM-T missile. During the FMS G-4/G-5 missile flight test at Eglin AFB, Florida, in June 2012, Patriot performed near-simultaneous intercepts over water of two air-breathing targets using GEM-T missiles. During Flight Test Integrated-01 (FTI-01) in October 2012 at the Reagan Test Site, Patriot performed a near-simultaneous engagement of a short-range ballistic missile target with two PAC-3 interceptors and a cruise missile target with another PAC-3 interceptor. FTI-01 was the first integrated flight test with multiple firing elements (Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense [BMD], Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense [THAAD], and Patriot) engaging multiple ballistic missile and air-breathing targets in a realistic BMDS-level architecture. Patriot successfully intercepted both of its targets. Seems like a lot of extra sensor integration to get those cruise missile kills. That's because it's been tested to network with our employment of an air defense system. Patriot can find cruise missiles by itself, but then your limited to the Patriot's radar and it's coverage alone, it will work better integrated with other sensors. This is where I'm very curious to see how this will be setup. If Ukraine can get their other sensors to pass info to the Patriot battery, and Patriot can already talk to NASAMS and IRIST-T and SAMP/T then it's going to be pretty formidable. It gets more formidable the more NATO air defense systems that get tied into the network. If S-300 and other Russian system radar info can be passed to the system then even better. That's the unknown factor right now. |
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Posted: 12/17/2022 9:58:03 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Ryan_Ruck]
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By DASJUDEN: I deleted my original post, I've had a long week and it was overly snarky, uncalled for, and I posted it in haste. I'd appreciate it if you'd delete my quote but if you don't that's your perogative. The thing is this isn't the first time I've been accused of being a shill or parroting Russian propaganda for presenting a contrary viewpoint. It's grating. @DASJUDEN I got you but, I don't think there was anything wrong with it personally. Nothing wrong with defending yourself and your perspective (which I think was/is perfectly valid) and, nothing wrong with a bit of snark. I am a fine purveyor of it myself at times.  ETA: And I'm sure it is grating when you're trying to be genuine. That's the insidious thing about Russian propaganda, it mixes truth with fiction and muddies the water and causes division. Which is the whole goal of it. |
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Posted: 12/17/2022 9:59:58 AM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spydercomonkey: Japan officially doubling its defense budget as a result of Ukraine Invasion and China tensions. https://i.redd.it/br8v668qbc6a1.jpg 
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Posted: 12/17/2022 10:20:43 AM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spydercomonkey: Japan officially doubling its defense budget as a result of Ukraine Invasion and China tensions. https://i.redd.it/br8v668qbc6a1.jpg  |
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USA
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Posted: 12/17/2022 10:29:31 AM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By DASJUDEN: I deleted my original post, I've had a long week and it was overly snarky, uncalled for, and I posted it in haste. I'd appreciate it if you'd delete my quote but if you don't that's your perogative. The thing is this isn't the first time I've been accused of being a shill or parroting Russian propaganda for presenting a contrary viewpoint. It's grating. As one of the people in here with zero tolerance for thread sliding and idiocy, I haven’t had any issue with your input so far. I think others may, because statements like UK weapon tracking being “abysmal” aren’t supported by evidence. Even in the article you linked, the sources said very few weapons are redirected. Broad, hyperbolic statements like that come off as disingenuous and troll-y. Regardless, you’re fine. Keep posting in here please. |
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Posted: 12/17/2022 10:29:54 AM EDT
[#9]
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Posted: 12/17/2022 10:30:16 AM EDT
[#10]
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Posted: 12/17/2022 10:32:10 AM EDT
[#11]
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Posted: 12/17/2022 10:34:03 AM EDT
[#12]
https://www.wired.com/story/gps-jamming-interference-russia-ukraine/ |
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Posted: 12/17/2022 10:37:16 AM EDT
[#13]
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Posted: 12/17/2022 10:38:04 AM EDT
[#14]
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Posted: 12/17/2022 10:39:50 AM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By DreadPirateMoyer: As one of the people in here with zero tolerance for thread sliding and idiocy, I haven’t had any issue with your input so far. I think others may, because statements like UK weapon tracking being “abysmal” aren’t supported by evidence. Even in the article you linked, the sources said very few weapons are redirected. Broad, hyperbolic statements like that come off as disingenuous and troll-y. Regardless, you’re fine. Keep posting in here please. I’m pretty sure the United Kingdom knows where their weapons are. |
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Posted: 12/17/2022 10:40:22 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Jack67]
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spydercomonkey: Fantastic NYT interactive article. I'd archive but that makes the images stop working. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/16/world/europe/russia-putin-war-failures-ukraine.html For the tl;dr or to help decide if you want to read/scroll it: Good article, well-written; though not a lot new for the well-informed. A few teasers: - Some interesting insights on Putin’s isolation psychosis, and developing personal antipathy towards Zelensky and Ukraine 2020-2021. -Austin and Milley (only minor in the overall story) really come across as savvy, steel-spined cold warriors who saved the day (read into that what you will). - Interesting details of CIA strongly telling RUS how west would support Ukr; Rus having no interest in listening to that. If you use this archive service, it will remove the still images but preserve the animated maps: https://www.removepaywall.com/ This WP article is poorly team-written, but interesting (also shorter). Relatively detailed unit-specific story of the elite 200th Motor Rifle Brigade from initial invasion forward: deployments, reinforcements, steady degradation of the unit. Badly edited and team-written IMO, but not without some genuinely interesting first-hand accounts and reporting. Can read w/paywall or feed into same archive link above. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/16/russia-200th-brigade-decimated-ukraine/ |
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Posted: 12/17/2022 10:40:57 AM EDT
[#17]
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Posted: 12/17/2022 10:42:39 AM EDT
[#18]
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WI, USA
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Posted: 12/17/2022 10:42:44 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Lieh-tzu]
[#19]
People jumped on primuspilum for showing up 3000 pages later with a negative assessment out of nowhere. So the context is offputting, but he is a legit SME. I personally am growing frustrated with the situation, and I think it's not out of line to say Ukraine is most definitely not winning right now or even that they're losing. We all want Russia to lose, so we mock the pathetic condition of mobiks and their poor equipment, the common usage of 50 year old armor, supposed depletion of long-range missile stocks, the massive losses in personnel & equipment. But they keep coming. They keep killing Ukrainians, blowing up military and civilian targets all over eastern Ukraine, stealing Ukrainian citizens and shipping them off who-knows-where, occupying Ukrainian cities & towns and destroying what they don't occupy.
The leader of AFU says they are short hundreds of units of armor & artillery (plus the necessary ammo & support for them) to do what needs to be done. The will to fight only goes so far. The will to win is not sufficient for victory by itself. We're all going to do a little happy dance when Ukraine announces 100K Russian KIA. But PP is not wrong - Russia will still win unless there's a major infusion of major weapons to Ukraine. Russia still possesses the same key advantage they had on Feb 24 - mass. Russia has greater mass than Ukraine and can throw away units until Ukraine can't wipe them out anymore. I grow discouraged (and the arrival of the guy with the John Cleese avatar had nothing to do with that). I want Ukraine to win. But hope is no different than cope. ETA - I'm even angry about the US handicapping the HIMARS that were sent. What BS. Russian military have directly killed US personnel in previous proxy wars, there is no good reason to withhold medium-range weapons from Ukraine, no good reason at all. Even today, after all that's happened, the US leadership is still slow-rolling and stinting on military aid. FJB, FVP. |
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Posted: 12/17/2022 10:43:36 AM EDT
[#20]
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Posted: 12/17/2022 10:46:16 AM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: People jumped on primuspilum for showing up 3000 pages later with a negative assessment out of nowhere. So the context is offputting, but he is a legit SME. I personally am growing frustrated with the situation, and I think it's not out of line to say Ukraine is most definitely not winning right now or even that they're losing. We all want Russia to lose, so we mock the pathetic condition of mobiks and their poor equipment, the common usage of 50 year old armor, supposed depletion of long-range missile stocks, the massive losses in personnel & equipment. But they keep coming. They keep killing Ukrainians, blowing up military and civilian targets all over eastern Ukraine, stealing Ukrainian citizens and shipping them off who-knows-where, occupying Ukrainian cities & towns and destroying what they don't occupy. The leader of AFU says they are short hundreds of units of armor & artillery (plus the necessary ammo & support for them) to do what needs to be done. The will to fight only goes so far. The will to win is not sufficient for victory by itself. We're all going to do a little happy dance when Ukraine announces 100K Russian KIA. But PP is not wrong - Russia will still win unless there's a major infusion of major weapons to Ukraine. Russia still possesses the same key advantage they had on Feb 24 - mass. Russia has greater mass than Ukraine and can throw away units until Ukraine can't wipe them out anymore. I grow discouraged (and the arrival of the guy with the John Cleese avatar had nothing to do with that). I want Ukraine to win. But hope is no different than cope. Things take time to organize, especially regarding big ticket items like armor and air defense and training. The ground also needs to freeze, expect this current situation until late January/February. |
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Posted: 12/17/2022 10:55:38 AM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
That reminds me…
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Posted: 12/17/2022 10:56:57 AM EDT
[#23]
 
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Posted: 12/17/2022 10:58:04 AM EDT
[#24]
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Posted: 12/17/2022 11:00:00 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Cincinnatus]
[#25]
Mass has its limitations.
It’s difficult to break a meat grinder with more meat. Eventually, something in Russia will happen. |
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Posted: 12/17/2022 11:03:24 AM EDT
[Last Edit: theskuh]
[#26]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Things take time to organize, especially regarding big ticket items like armor and air defense and training. The ground also needs to freeze, expect this current situation until late January/February. yea for me this war is a real test of our ability to fight. I know it isn't our troops on the line or our best stuff yet. But if we can't stop Russia here it doesn't bode well for our strength against China or Russia in a conventional fight. My interest is seeing how well things are working and if we can actually project power against a near peer. We have some technological advantage but the whole quantity has a quality could be proven true here once again. I feel we have a lot more to lose here than the Russians do just on the disparity of military spending alone. What good are high dollar systems if they can't change the outcome. |
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Posted: 12/17/2022 11:03:50 AM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: People jumped on primuspilum for showing up 3000 pages later with a negative assessment out of nowhere. So the context is offputting, but he is a legit SME. I personally am growing frustrated with the situation, and I think it's not out of line to say Ukraine is most definitely not winning right now or even that they're losing. We all want Russia to lose, so we mock the pathetic condition of mobiks and their poor equipment, the common usage of 50 year old armor, supposed depletion of long-range missile stocks, the massive losses in personnel & equipment. But they keep coming. They keep killing Ukrainians, blowing up military and civilian targets all over eastern Ukraine, stealing Ukrainian citizens and shipping them off who-knows-where, occupying Ukrainian cities & towns and destroying what they don't occupy. The leader of AFU says they are short hundreds of units of armor & artillery (plus the necessary ammo & support for them) to do what needs to be done. The will to fight only goes so far. The will to win is not sufficient for victory by itself. We're all going to do a little happy dance when Ukraine announces 100K Russian KIA. But PP is not wrong - Russia will still win unless there's a major infusion of major weapons to Ukraine. Russia still possesses the same key advantage they had on Feb 24 - mass. Russia has greater mass than Ukraine and can throw away units until Ukraine can't wipe them out anymore. I grow discouraged (and the arrival of the guy with the John Cleese avatar had nothing to do with that). I want Ukraine to win. But hope is no different than cope. Just MHO but, I don't know that Ukraine is currently "losing" per se but, there certainly does seems to be a bit of a stalemate. I don't think it's necessarily unexpected with the onset of Winter however. Everyone knew it was going to be a slog for both sides and we seem to be seeing it now. However you are right, there needs to be some "game changer" to break the stalemate or else there is a definite risk of Ukraine losing the momentum it had and the Russian "mass" grinding Ukraine down. HIMARS was that game changer last time. I think the best game changer this time would be the ability for Ukraine to start striking in Russia, far behind the lines, and being able to destroy important assets like their bomber fleet and most forward domestically deployed stocks/supplies. Maybe even Russian infrastructure too. Something to knock them back on their heels. The Russian "mass" plan has lots and lots of it's own glaring flaws putting it in danger (shortages of many vital things) though so, while it could work, it's a very tenuous position and they've definitely got all their eggs in one basket. I don't think it would take a ton to upset their applecart. We already saw their panic over the very limited strike on Engles. |
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USA
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Posted: 12/17/2022 11:07:02 AM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Grendelsbane: I’m pretty sure the United Kingdom knows where their weapons are. Your autism is noted. |
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Posted: 12/17/2022 11:07:11 AM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By theskuh: yea for me this war is a real test of our ability to fight. I know it isn't our troops on the line or our best stuff yet. But if we can't stop Russia here it doesn't bode well for our strength against China or Russia in a conventional fight. My interest is seeing how well things are working and if we can actually project power against a near peer. We have some technological advantage but the whole quantity has a quality could be proven true here once again. I feel we have a lot more to lose here than the Russians do. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By theskuh: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Things take time to organize, especially regarding big ticket items like armor and air defense and training. The ground also needs to freeze, expect this current situation until late January/February. yea for me this war is a real test of our ability to fight. I know it isn't our troops on the line or our best stuff yet. But if we can't stop Russia here it doesn't bode well for our strength against China or Russia in a conventional fight. My interest is seeing how well things are working and if we can actually project power against a near peer. We have some technological advantage but the whole quantity has a quality could be proven true here once again. I feel we have a lot more to lose here than the Russians do. I feel the same way, it's certainly a real world stress test of NATO and how we can get our stuff together to fight off a threat. I always pay attention to interviews with the Ukrainian military commanders when they make statements and found that for the most part their timetables have been correct. This June they said that things would slow down over the winter, with perhaps one or two small offensives, but that by May they believe they have the momentum to push Russia out of their territories. It was hard to believe them when they said that they'd retake Kherson by the winter, and here we are. |
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Posted: 12/17/2022 11:10:08 AM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lieh-tzu: People jumped on primuspilum for showing up 3000 pages later with a negative assessment out of nowhere. So the context is offputting, but he is a legit SME. I personally am growing frustrated with the situation, and I think it's not out of line to say Ukraine is most definitely not winning right now or even that they're losing. We all want Russia to lose, so we mock the pathetic condition of mobiks and their poor equipment, the common usage of 50 year old armor, supposed depletion of long-range missile stocks, the massive losses in personnel & equipment. But they keep coming. They keep killing Ukrainians, blowing up military and civilian targets all over eastern Ukraine, stealing Ukrainian citizens and shipping them off who-knows-where, occupying Ukrainian cities & towns and destroying what they don't occupy. The leader of AFU says they are short hundreds of units of armor & artillery (plus the necessary ammo & support for them) to do what needs to be done. The will to fight only goes so far. The will to win is not sufficient for victory by itself. We're all going to do a little happy dance when Ukraine announces 100K Russian KIA. But PP is not wrong - Russia will still win unless there's a major infusion of major weapons to Ukraine. Russia still possesses the same key advantage they had on Feb 24 - mass. Russia has greater mass than Ukraine and can throw away units until Ukraine can't wipe them out anymore. I grow discouraged (and the arrival of the guy with the John Cleese avatar had nothing to do with that). I want Ukraine to win. But hope is no different than cope. ETA - I'm even angry about the US handicapping the HIMARS that were sent. What BS. Russian military have directly killed US personnel in previous proxy wars, there is no good reason to withhold medium-range weapons from Ukraine, no good reason at all. Even today, after all that's happened, the US leadership is still slow-rolling and stinting on military aid. FJB, FVP. I see no evidence that Russia is winning. Quite the opposite. Russia has lost over half the territory it gained since the invasion.it has lost more men and equipment than it started the invasion with. All of those surviving forces that were pushed out of Kharkiv and Kherson Oblasts seem to have been moved to Bakhmut, where Russian offensive is either stalled, or they are losing hundreds of men to get a few hundred meters of ground. And that’s just one point on a front that is hundreds of kilometers. If Ukraine has lost anything it’s forward momentum due to mud season and to conserve arms for offensives. Russia has been degraded to the point of carrying out terror attacks to try to win a negotiated settlement. Ukraine does need more arms, obviously, and Russia still has stockpiles. There is a valid point that Russia can make a stalemate or perhaps hold some of Ukraine at a very high cost. But overall, Russia isn’t winning, just being sore losers. |
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Posted: 12/17/2022 11:10:34 AM EDT
[#31]
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Posted: 12/17/2022 11:11:09 AM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Ryan_Scott: One of the Russian shills promised me that someone would use a Javelin to assassinate Western European politicians. And so far I’ve been waiting in vain! Well, that Polish police dude almost got assassinated. By his own dumbass self.  (Although, to be fair to the guy, who gives a live RPG to somebody as a gift?  )
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Posted: 12/17/2022 11:13:18 AM EDT
[#33]
Failed Russian attempt to storm Ukrainian trenches in Bakhmut, Russian bodies in open field warning.
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Posted: 12/17/2022 11:14:41 AM EDT
[#34]
Interesting upgrade to the Switchblade.
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Posted: 12/17/2022 11:14:58 AM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Failed Russian attempt to storm Ukrainian trenches in Bakhmut, Russian bodies in open field warning.
There’s that meat grinder again… |
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Posted: 12/17/2022 11:15:37 AM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryUkraine hit some group on the move if they tallied 14 vehicles in a day. Casualty count is above the norm as well. Wonder where the group was they clobbered? |
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Posted: 12/17/2022 11:16:32 AM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
Unless I'm reading that incorrectly, they don't really have a LNG processing facility built. They're using a FLNG ship for regasification and all of their shipments will offload through it. It's an expedient, but short term solution. Probably expensive to lease. |
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Posted: 12/17/2022 11:18:44 AM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: I feel the same way, it's certainly a real world stress test of NATO and how we can get our stuff together to fight off a threat. I always pay attention to interviews with the Ukrainian military commanders when they make statements and found that for the most part their timetables have been correct. This June they said that things would slow down over the winter, with perhaps one or two small offensives, but that by May they believe they have the momentum to push Russia out of their territories. It was hard to believe them when they said that they'd retake Kherson by the winter, and here we are. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By theskuh: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Things take time to organize, especially regarding big ticket items like armor and air defense and training. The ground also needs to freeze, expect this current situation until late January/February. yea for me this war is a real test of our ability to fight. I know it isn't our troops on the line or our best stuff yet. But if we can't stop Russia here it doesn't bode well for our strength against China or Russia in a conventional fight. My interest is seeing how well things are working and if we can actually project power against a near peer. We have some technological advantage but the whole quantity has a quality could be proven true here once again. I feel we have a lot more to lose here than the Russians do. I feel the same way, it's certainly a real world stress test of NATO and how we can get our stuff together to fight off a threat. I always pay attention to interviews with the Ukrainian military commanders when they make statements and found that for the most part their timetables have been correct. This June they said that things would slow down over the winter, with perhaps one or two small offensives, but that by May they believe they have the momentum to push Russia out of their territories. It was hard to believe them when they said that they'd retake Kherson by the winter, and here we are. Some people seem to be forgetting that they were kicking the living shit out of the Russians before mud and winter hit. The reason it stopped isn't because Russia got better or Ukraine got worse, it's exactly what everybody predicted: winter. |
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Posted: 12/17/2022 11:20:36 AM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Interesting upgrade to the Switchblade.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FkI_QurUoAA4Uu3?format=jpg&name=large That'll be hard to detect. |
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Posted: 12/17/2022 11:20:51 AM EDT
[#40]
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Posted: 12/17/2022 11:22:07 AM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Ryan_Scott: That'll be hard to detect. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Ryan_Scott: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Interesting upgrade to the Switchblade.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FkI_QurUoAA4Uu3?format=jpg&name=large That'll be hard to detect. Yes it will. 
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Posted: 12/17/2022 11:23:17 AM EDT
[#42]
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Posted: 12/17/2022 11:24:47 AM EDT
[#43]
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Posted: 12/17/2022 11:25:40 AM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FkL_c8MXkAEWxUS?format=jpg&name=large Now THAT'S the mustache of a Chief Master Sergeant. |
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Posted: 12/17/2022 11:26:38 AM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
 So we can trust CNN for a few seconds????? |
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Posted: 12/17/2022 11:27:22 AM EDT
[#46]
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Posted: 12/17/2022 11:27:31 AM EDT
[#47]
If y’all are discouraged that this has lasted not yet a year I wonder how most here will feel after it goes on into the third or fourth year. This could even go on for a generation.
Our dear leaders have stated as much I can understand Primus’ skepticism Who’s will faulters first? |
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OH, USA
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Posted: 12/17/2022 11:29:44 AM EDT
[#48]
Didn't MOST expect this to turn into an attrition war in the late-fall and all of winter due to....that kind of being the SOP in this region on the eastern front in ww2?
I mean we have cruise missiles, and drones, but from what I know, vehicles aren't immensely better today than they were 70+ years ago, and unless either side wants to throw 1m+ guys to try and encircle ala stalingrad, you're kind of stuck till you can utilize maneuver warfare again. |
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Posted: 12/17/2022 11:29:49 AM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By sq40: I see no evidence that Russia is winning. Quite the opposite. Russia has lost over half the territory it gained since the invasion.it has lost more men and equipment than it started the invasion with. All of those surviving forces that were pushed out of Kharkiv and Kherson Oblasts seem to have been moved to Bakhmut, where Russian offensive is either stalled, or they are losing hundreds of men to get a few hundred meters of ground. And that’s just one point on a front that is hundreds of kilometers. If Ukraine has lost anything it’s forward momentum due to mud season and to conserve arms for offensives. Russia has been degraded to the point of carrying out terror attacks to try to win a negotiated settlement. Ukraine does need more arms, obviously, and Russia still has stockpiles. There is a valid point that Russia can make a stalemate or perhaps hold some of Ukraine at a very high cost. But overall, Russia isn’t winning, just being sore losers. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By sq40: Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu: People jumped on primuspilum for showing up 3000 pages later with a negative assessment out of nowhere. So the context is offputting, but he is a legit SME. I personally am growing frustrated with the situation, and I think it's not out of line to say Ukraine is most definitely not winning right now or even that they're losing. We all want Russia to lose, so we mock the pathetic condition of mobiks and their poor equipment, the common usage of 50 year old armor, supposed depletion of long-range missile stocks, the massive losses in personnel & equipment. But they keep coming. They keep killing Ukrainians, blowing up military and civilian targets all over eastern Ukraine, stealing Ukrainian citizens and shipping them off who-knows-where, occupying Ukrainian cities & towns and destroying what they don't occupy. The leader of AFU says they are short hundreds of units of armor & artillery (plus the necessary ammo & support for them) to do what needs to be done. The will to fight only goes so far. The will to win is not sufficient for victory by itself. We're all going to do a little happy dance when Ukraine announces 100K Russian KIA. But PP is not wrong - Russia will still win unless there's a major infusion of major weapons to Ukraine. Russia still possesses the same key advantage they had on Feb 24 - mass. Russia has greater mass than Ukraine and can throw away units until Ukraine can't wipe them out anymore. I grow discouraged (and the arrival of the guy with the John Cleese avatar had nothing to do with that). I want Ukraine to win. But hope is no different than cope. ETA - I'm even angry about the US handicapping the HIMARS that were sent. What BS. Russian military have directly killed US personnel in previous proxy wars, there is no good reason to withhold medium-range weapons from Ukraine, no good reason at all. Even today, after all that's happened, the US leadership is still slow-rolling and stinting on military aid. FJB, FVP. I see no evidence that Russia is winning. Quite the opposite. Russia has lost over half the territory it gained since the invasion.it has lost more men and equipment than it started the invasion with. All of those surviving forces that were pushed out of Kharkiv and Kherson Oblasts seem to have been moved to Bakhmut, where Russian offensive is either stalled, or they are losing hundreds of men to get a few hundred meters of ground. And that’s just one point on a front that is hundreds of kilometers. If Ukraine has lost anything it’s forward momentum due to mud season and to conserve arms for offensives. Russia has been degraded to the point of carrying out terror attacks to try to win a negotiated settlement. Ukraine does need more arms, obviously, and Russia still has stockpiles. There is a valid point that Russia can make a stalemate or perhaps hold some of Ukraine at a very high cost. But overall, Russia isn’t winning, just being sore losers. I concur with this assessment. This stage of the war honestly reminds me of the summer, in which it appeared Russia was grinding away its way forward to a victory in the Donbas and people were questioning whether the Ukrainians could retake ground. Then, of course, the Ukrainians threw them out of Kharkiv and then Kherson. |
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Posted: 12/17/2022 11:31:09 AM EDT
[#50]
https://charter97.org/en/news/2022/12/17/528627/
Breakthrough Of Southern Front: AFU Preparing To Strike Against Russians’ Most Important Point In Crimea The Russian army cannot feel safe on the Crimean peninsula. “I think the strikes on Dzhankoy will continue,” Ukrainian military expert Serhiy Zgurets writes in an article on the Espresso website. There is the most important point for the enemy — a significant amount of artillery and equipment is being accumulated. In Sovetske, personnel were destroyed. We don't know what weapons we use. “I think that the restrictions on the number of these weapons also affect the rate of destruction of the enemy in the Crimea,” the expert notes. 
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