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Posted: 11/13/2022 5:03:00 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By urbanredneck: These drones dropping grenades....how high are they operaring? Have a hard time believing they aren't spotted by russians. Someone posted way back a bunch of pages ago that some drops were 800 feet based on time of fall. |
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Posted: 11/13/2022 5:14:07 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By uxb: Someone posted way back a bunch of pages ago that some drops were 800 feet based on time of fall. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By uxb: Originally Posted By urbanredneck: These drones dropping grenades....how high are they operaring? Have a hard time believing they aren't spotted by russians. Someone posted way back a bunch of pages ago that some drops were 800 feet based on time of fall. A stopwatch and the correct mathematical formula and a high school freshman could calculate distance fairly accurately. |
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Posted: 11/13/2022 5:22:51 PM EDT
[Last Edit: ar-jedi]
[#3]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By DASJUDEN: Being a company instructor pilot and trying to teach new guys what terrain flight actually is becomes some real high adventure. Constantly have "I wonder what new and interesting way my student is going to try to kill me today?" in the back of my mind. My BIL was a USAF “first jet” instructor (Laughlin AFB, in the T37) and he told me that at least prior USAF instructors would annotate certain student records with NAFD: “No Apparent Fear of Death”. This annotation was intended to be a heads-up to folks downstream, in terms of being aware that this individual was in fact a higher-than-average occupational hazard. Naturally one of these cadet pilots ran into a turkey vulture at 300kts while doing an oblique loop. “My aircraft”.  |
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AL, USA
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Posted: 11/13/2022 5:30:11 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By DASJUDEN: Being a company instructor pilot and trying to teach new guys what terrain flight actually is becomes some real high adventure. Constantly have "I wonder what new and interesting way my student is going to try to kill me today?" in the back of my mind. I can't let my wife drive without stomping the passenger floorboard until my leg is sore. |
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Posted: 11/13/2022 5:48:20 PM EDT
[#5]
https://censor.net/ua/photo_news/3380302/zsu_znyschyly_v_chornobayivtsi_novitnyu_rosiyisku_rls_pidlit_foto
The Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed the newest Russian radar "Pidlit" in Chornobayivka. PHOTO
Photo Censor.NET War in Ukraine The Ukrainian military destroyed a rare and modern example of the Russian army's radar at the airfield in Chornobayivka in the Kherson region. As Censor.NET informs , the StratCom of the ZSU reported this in a telegram . The message states: "A very interesting shot from the liberated Chornobayivka, which shows a destroyed rare and, to some extent, unique for the Katsapa army radar specimen. This is the 48Y6-K1 "Pidlit" - a solid-state three-coordinate radar station with a radar for a circular survey and detection of air targets on small and at extremely low altitudes in a complex obstacle environment This radar is designed to provide target guidance for air defense systems S-300, S-400, etc. The supply of radar data to the air defense forces of Katsapia began in 2015, and today it is both the most "modern" and the least common radars". Джерело: https://censor.net/ua/p3380302 |
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Posted: 11/13/2022 6:03:09 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Erno86: I feel the same --- But possibly not by the standards of high brass, World War I trench warfare casualty rate percentages. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Erno86: Originally Posted By Swampgrass: Maybe I'm weird but losing 800 folks a day seem pretty devastating to me. I feel the same --- But possibly not by the standards of high brass, World War I trench warfare casualty rate percentages. Its not really meaningful. They lost 1200 KIA per day fighting Napoleon and won the war. They lost 1600 KIA per day against Finland and won the war. They lost 7000 KIA per day against the Germans and won the war. Your metric for what meaningful losses are isnt really congruent with how Russians think. As long as they have the FSB and the police and don't mind rounding up expendables and Siberians, they don't really care about losses. Id be less concerned how many they lose vs how fast they learn. I don't see them reforming much or learning anything and that's much, MUCH more important. Russians always lose meat. Sometimes, in the process, some of them learn something. The Ukrainian path to victory is physically taking ground. I don't see Putin waking up one morning having lost one million peasants and giving a shit. I don't see the Stans or Mongols doing much about it. But that is more about the secret police and internal security ministries. |
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Posted: 11/13/2022 6:09:40 PM EDT
[#7]
Originally Posted By Prime:  I was hoping we’d hear from you on this. Fantastic. “Sad Russian pokes sad engine with a stick”. LoL, glad I could help and payback a little for all the fabulous information and analysis I get for free here. When you need withering analysis of Russian naval capabilities, I’m happy to help out. ;) Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: This info is awesome! It's just as you look in detail at each piece of the Russian military puzzle, you can see all of the pieces just don't seem to fit correctly, or are missing altogether.  Yep, things don’t add up across the board. And I think “we” knew this very well and it had a big part to play in our early reaction to the invasion. My thesis, and I know others here must have wondered about it: - Those of us who’ve paid very close attention to Russian capabilities for the last 20 years in our respective fields/areas of interest have seen this - but through our narrow focus. - The “pros from Dover” in their cubes, and taking occasional field investigations, at the CIA, DIA, etc. must have figured this out across-the-course. - The top-level decision-makers decided early-on to give the Ukr forces all the support they needed, in light of this knowledge. Policy was WELL ahead of the public opinion polls and national sentiment at the time. I theorize they probably knew across-the board and down to the regiment-level the real state of affairs and were willing to challenge it. They also had months and possibly close to a year to work out this policy while the build-up happened. A theory, and one I eventually look forward to seeing tested when the full story of this war can be assembled, analyzed, and written. What an awesome job to have and envy the historians and analysts who are able to do that. |
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Posted: 11/13/2022 6:11:38 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By K0UA: That is really worth the time to listen to. It explains so much. Thank you very much for posting that. It also matches what this country is doing on certain issues like covid and trans. Same approach same tactics. No discussion, just a sad reality. |
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Posted: 11/13/2022 6:14:36 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BlackHoleSon: I can't let my wife drive without stomping the passenger floorboard until my leg is sore. Everything is 1.5 times as fast when you are in the passenger seat. |
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Posted: 11/13/2022 6:19:00 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Fltot: I noticed something weird in this video of the destroyed Antonovsky bridge - it seems like the river is so shallow, it didn’t even cover the downed bridge spans. Loos like they are around 6-10 feet thick at most, that means that the river, at least where this spans fell, can be pretty much waded on foot. Maybe crossing it will not be that difficult? How deep is the river there? https://mobile.twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1591516370067460096?t=a2kOi0T_zVhmdTISByyLHQ&s=19 Deep, like 20’ or more easy probably 40’ in channels. It’s a navigable river with shipping |
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TX, USA
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Posted: 11/13/2022 6:20:38 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Charging_Handle: How does the AH-1W Super Cobra or the AH-1Z Viper compare to the AH-64D/E models in terms of complexity, maintenance, performance, etc.? I would have to think that of the 3 different aircraft, the Whiskey model Cobra would would probably be the easiest to work on and maintain, though it would lack some of the advanced capabilities offered by the newer Zulu models or a late model Apache. Beyond that, I would assume even the Zulu model is a bit more simple in overall design than the Apache but comes much closer to matching the Apache in terms of capability than the Whiskey model. I think it would be safe to say that either of these three options would beat anything the Ukrainians presently have in service. I'm just trying to determine which would best suit Ukraine's needs in the near term and future. If the idea is to provide them with a western designed attack helicopter and getting them up to speed relatively quickly (possibly before this war ends), then giving them some retired Whiskey model Cobras might be the best bet, while transitioning them to the more capable (and more complex) Zulu sometime in the future. |
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Posted: 11/13/2022 6:24:44 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime:
A comment said executions |
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Posted: 11/13/2022 6:30:46 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Jack67]
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By johnh57: The Kinburn peninsula is on the left bank of the dnipro river, basically at the mouth of the river at the black sea. This means the UA is possibly starting to cross the dnipro and pushing towards Crimea/ melitopol / mariupol. Also if the ua is crossing at zaporizhzhia they could split the Russian army. It doesn't sound like ua is standing down for general winter. This is looking increasingly likely. I have wondered about this since the attack on the Sevastopol naval base. Objectively, that was a “Doolittle” type exercise some thought. I kept wondering if they were really degrading the surface capabilities to allow Crimean ops, and not just degrade the naval missile batteries or strike a psychological blow. - The weather in Crimea is suitable for mobile winter ops, unlike most of the rest of Ukraine. - The dry season in most of Crimea, and especially the north, is winter. - Temperatures are very moderate by continental standards because of the marine effect. - The terrain is very suitable for mobile ops. - The momentum is very much with Ukr now and it’s a net disadvantage to them to slow down for winter. This has to be a huge advantage they do not want to surrender. The large scale of the late-October drone attacks, and not long on the heels of the bridge attack, got me to wondering about that. If they are putting units across the Dnieper estuary immediately, it implies they’ve been planning this a long time. If they can get 30, 40 miles further south they can continue mobile ground ops all winter, against an enemy with severely constrained GLOCs and a severely degraded naval force, eliminating a flanking threat from the sea. It’s almost like there’s a big, complicated, multi-front plan all coming together right now. ;) |
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Posted: 11/13/2022 6:33:29 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FhdxhBaXoAAAMh_?format=jpg&name=900x900
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FhdyXUNX0AAcwEh?format=jpg&name=900x900 Wow. That woulkd be fucking ballsy! I might have to eat my words about Ukraine’s willingness to take chances. |
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NE, USA
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Posted: 11/13/2022 6:37:34 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime:
And these are the people who are coming to "deNazify" Ukraine? |
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Posted: 11/13/2022 6:40:22 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By PMB1086:
*Ukraine* is evacuating Kherson and the right (east) bank? That would indicate they think Russia is going to start shelling indiscriminately, or might do something unfortunate. |
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ND, USA
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Posted: 11/13/2022 6:44:59 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CharlieR: Its not really meaningful. They lost 1200 KIA per day fighting Napoleon and won the war. They lost 1600 KIA per day against Finland and won the war. They lost 7000 KIA per day against the Germans and won the war. Your metric for what meaningful losses are isnt really congruent with how Russians think. As long as they have the FSB and the police and don't mind rounding up expendables and Siberians, they don't really care about losses. Id be less concerned how many they lose vs how fast they learn. I don't see them reforming much or learning anything and that's much, MUCH more important. Russians always lose meat. Sometimes, in the process, some of them learn something. The Ukrainian path to victory is physically taking ground. I don't see Putin waking up one morning having lost one million peasants and giving a shit. I don't see the Stans or Mongols doing much about it. But that is more about the secret police and internal security ministries. This is true. Very little of the population is being thrown in the meat grinder from Moscow or St. Petersburg. It’s mostly the ‘Stan’s, Caucasus and Siberian’s are the cannon fodder. Putin is trying his damndest to avoid tossing his middle class supporters children in the grinder. |
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Posted: 11/13/2022 6:47:56 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By DASJUDEN: If you listen really really closely you can hear the echoes of 1917. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By DASJUDEN: Originally Posted By AROKIE: Atleast those mobiks has a commander who gives a shit about his men amd stands up to command Edited: but hopefully they are still sent to front lines under equipped lol If you listen really really closely you can hear the echoes of 1917. More like “the echo is so loud you need earpro,” IMO. This winter is going to be really, really bad for the mobiks. There may be 100K total dead by New Years with the worst part of the winter still to come. Plus hundreds of thousands of guys off the street will see the lies and incompetence firsthand, which can be hidden from the public at home. If change happens in Russia it will be from the Army either collapsing or mutinying. |
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Posted: 11/13/2022 6:49:57 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: *Ukraine* is evacuating Kherson and the right (east) bank? That would indicate they think Russia is going to start shelling indiscriminately, or might do something unfortunate. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By PMB1086:
*Ukraine* is evacuating Kherson and the right (east) bank? That would indicate they think Russia is going to start shelling indiscriminately, or might do something unfortunate. Could it also merely indicate a city where a city can no longer exist due to total infrastructure destruction? |
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Posted: 11/13/2022 6:50:12 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: *Ukraine* is evacuating Kherson and the right (east) bank? That would indicate they think Russia is going to start shelling indiscriminately, or might do something unfortunate. |
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Posted: 11/13/2022 6:56:30 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By m00ler03:
Whoa, that was nuts. |
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Posted: 11/13/2022 6:57:54 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CharlieR: Its not really meaningful. They lost 1200 KIA per day fighting Napoleon and won the war. They lost 1600 KIA per day against Finland and won the war. They lost 7000 KIA per day against the Germans and won the war. Your metric for what meaningful losses are isnt really congruent with how Russians think. As long as they have the FSB and the police and don't mind rounding up expendables and Siberians, they don't really care about losses. Id be less concerned how many they lose vs how fast they learn. I don't see them reforming much or learning anything and that's much, MUCH more important. Russians always lose meat. Sometimes, in the process, some of them learn something. The Ukrainian path to victory is physically taking ground. I don't see Putin waking up one morning having lost one million peasants and giving a shit. I don't see the Stans or Mongols doing much about it. But that is more about the secret police and internal security ministries. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CharlieR: Originally Posted By Erno86: Originally Posted By Swampgrass: Maybe I'm weird but losing 800 folks a day seem pretty devastating to me. I feel the same --- But possibly not by the standards of high brass, World War I trench warfare casualty rate percentages. Its not really meaningful. They lost 1200 KIA per day fighting Napoleon and won the war. They lost 1600 KIA per day against Finland and won the war. They lost 7000 KIA per day against the Germans and won the war. Your metric for what meaningful losses are isnt really congruent with how Russians think. As long as they have the FSB and the police and don't mind rounding up expendables and Siberians, they don't really care about losses. Id be less concerned how many they lose vs how fast they learn. I don't see them reforming much or learning anything and that's much, MUCH more important. Russians always lose meat. Sometimes, in the process, some of them learn something. The Ukrainian path to victory is physically taking ground. I don't see Putin waking up one morning having lost one million peasants and giving a shit. I don't see the Stans or Mongols doing much about it. But that is more about the secret police and internal security ministries. Russia isn’t the Soviet Union or the Russian empire. Half the population to pull from. I’ve seen credible data that indicates that up to 40-50% of CCCP officer corp were Ukrainian and from non- Russian states. They can’t sustain this for all that much longer. No one gave you a death benefit and all the other shady graft that surrounds Russians under reporting casualties. That’s one way to quickly piss off the locals, rob enough moms of coffins and wives of money. Eventually it will collapse, maybe sooner than later but it could be a year at most. Unless we of course save the day with a forced cease fire. |
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Posted: 11/13/2022 6:59:32 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Chaingun: Pretty clean and lined up for a 120mm mortar round, also no rifles A comment said executions Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Chaingun: Originally Posted By Prime:
A comment said executions Casualty collection point, they get hit by mortar maybe? If it was execution they’d be looted. |
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FL, USA
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Posted: 11/13/2022 7:01:43 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Eat_Beef: I know I'm going to get flamed for this, but... I remember back in the Kharkiv offensive, thinking, man, the Ukes are really putting it to them, they must be killing thousands. But the official numbers never got that high, maybe the 6-700 range. I had the same thought on this Kherson run. We're hearing that it's a total rout, there are 20k RF soldiers with no chance of escape, they're getting slaughtered by arty. Then the numbers come in and it's 7-800 a day. I'm sorry, but it's a colossal failure that they let that many enemy soldiers escape across a river without cutting them a whole lot deeper than they did. Either there is a whole lot of wishful thinking going on with the major twitter guys referenced in this thread, or UA is barely muddling through. This is twice now that everyone is declaring a rout, and the official numbers are up 2-% from an average day. Don't get me wrong, I'm glad they're advancing, but this just doesn't add up. Either there were a lot less RF forces on the right bank than we were told, or UA did a poor job of roughing them up on their way out. Those guys are going to be a LOT harder to deal with on the left bank than they were on the right. I've had similar thoughts but have to remind myself that if the USA lost 500+ daily KIA in any conflict since D-Day, we'd have a revolution. And that is a SLOW DAY for the RU (with less than half the population of the USA). It's an absolutely horrible and tragic loss of life (especially on the UA side) for the lost cause of putin's ambitions. I do wonder if the UA simply cannot shoot, move, communicate fast enough to really capitalize on the typical Russian rout, OR Russia is good at fleeing en mass from the battle field. I dont think that the UA lack the killer instinct or desire to kill Russian but maybe someone up high doesn't want to run up the score too much too fast? I'm 99% sure it's just tough ass combat and the UA is doing all they can. *I'm sorry but I'm 10+ pages behind. |
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FL, USA
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Posted: 11/13/2022 7:12:41 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By elcope:  Man, I hope you'll be OK after that. Will probably be sporting some new pronouns... |
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Posted: 11/13/2022 7:18:13 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Beltfed308]
[#26]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By urbanredneck: These drones dropping grenades....how high are they operating? Have a hard time believing they aren't spotted by russians. In the spirt of the Ukrainians, I spent the afternoon practicing with my mini 2 dropping things. At 175 ft it is hard to see/hear and I can hit within 25ft using a flagpole as a target. I use a pistol cleaning rod with a brass 45 cal jag on the end. Improvised lawn dart. You can hear it whistling down which is cool. No grid just center screen and guessing wind. This was my first practice and only 3 drops. A bigger unit would carry much more like we have seen but unless the noise gives a clue to direction, you cannot shoot what you don't know is there. |
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FL, USA
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Posted: 11/13/2022 7:18:56 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spydercomonkey: Thats one of those talking points on the Right I just dont get. Ukraine could be a bunch of snake worshiping cannibals wasting half our foreign aid on decorative glass beads and crack, and I'd still support them because they are killing 100k Russian Soldiers a year. Yes. In the past, US conservatives have supported some really nefarious organizations in the fight against communism (Mujahadeen in A-stan 1980's) but now, white Christian Europeans who grow sunflowers and watermelons are "no better than" the Russians that killed out grandfathers and fathers in Korea, Vietnam, etc?? GTFO! How could there ever be a question about supporting Ukraine? |
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Posted: 11/13/2022 7:28:56 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Chaingun: Pretty clean and lined up for a 120mm mortar round, also no rifles A comment said executions You ever see a man allowed to wear body armor to his own firing squad? Asking for a friend. |
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CA, USA
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Posted: 11/13/2022 7:29:32 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FhcZZXGXkAw2MSE?format=jpg&name=large |
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Posted: 11/13/2022 7:36:52 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By gentlemanfarmer: Russia isn’t the Soviet Union or the Russian empire. Half the population to pull from. I’ve seen credible data that indicates that up to 40-50% of CCCP officer corp were Ukrainian and from non- Russian states. They can’t sustain this for all that much longer. No one gave you a death benefit and all the other shady graft that surrounds Russians under reporting casualties. That’s one way to quickly piss off the locals, rob enough moms of coffins and wives of money. Eventually it will collapse, maybe sooner than later but it could be a year at most. Unless we of course save the day with a forced cease fire. What was the death benefit for a Red Army private in WWII? How many Russian officers do you think were killed in 1941? And what difference did that make? Noone gives a shit about what the locals or moms or wives think. It isn't a democracy. Its not legislative/executive/judicial. Its Army/gov/secret police. As long as the secret police is on board the machine can grind on. They lost 80 times as many with twice the population in four years. They know how to control their own population. Its about the only damn thing they do well. If they keep throwing bodies with a weeks training, they will lose, but totalitarian states dont really collapse until you occupy their capitol. Czar Nicholas doesnt count. |
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Posted: 11/13/2022 7:43:11 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CharlieR: What was the death benefit for a Red Army private in WWII? How many Russian officers do you think were killed in 1941? And what difference did that make? Noone gives a shit about what the locals or moms or wives think. It isn't a democracy. Its not legislative/executive/judicial. Its Army/gov/secret police. As long as the secret police is on board the machine can grind on. They lost 80 times as many with twice the population in four years. They know how to control their own population. Its about the only damn thing they do well. If they keep throwing bodies with a weeks training, they will lose, but totalitarian states dont really collapse until you occupy their capitol. Czar Nicholas doesnt count. It doesn't change the fact that the Russian population is extremely thin when it comes to military-aged males. They really can't throw soldiers into the meatgrinder like they used to.  |
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Posted: 11/13/2022 7:55:05 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: *Ukraine* is evacuating Kherson and the right (east) bank? That would indicate they think Russia is going to start shelling indiscriminately, or might do something unfortunate. This is my thought as well. Purely speculation, but UA know something is there and want to minimize casualties by evacuating civilians. Have the nuke sniffing planes been airborne lately (Able Archer?)? |
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Posted: 11/13/2022 7:58:46 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By IH1026: This is my thought as well. Purely speculation, but UA know something is there and want to minimize casualties by evacuating civilians. Have the nuke sniffing planes been airborne lately (Able Archer?)? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By IH1026: Originally Posted By Capta: *Ukraine* is evacuating Kherson and the right (east) bank? That would indicate they think Russia is going to start shelling indiscriminately, or might do something unfortunate. This is my thought as well. Purely speculation, but UA know something is there and want to minimize casualties by evacuating civilians. Have the nuke sniffing planes been airborne lately (Able Archer?)? (they could probably also filter out any Russians in civvies easier also) |
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OH, USA
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Posted: 11/13/2022 8:02:42 PM EDT
[Last Edit: BerettaGuy]
[#34]
 Failed To Load Title Ukrainian National Guard Takes Out Entire Column Then, footage of Russian National Liberation Movement (Russian Communists), in Moscow demonstration, call for Russia to capture Washington DC. How pathetic! LOL! The end is great with Kherson liberation and Ukrainians greeting troops. Really great to see this. |
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MA, USA
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Posted: 11/13/2022 8:13:32 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 74HC: They're #1 in the world at killing russians. I think the Germans and the Finns might debate that.... |
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Posted: 11/13/2022 8:15:19 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By TiePilot69: I think the Germans and the Finns might debate that.... We're only considering active players ATM. |
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VA, USA
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Posted: 11/13/2022 8:18:34 PM EDT
[#37]
Is the evacuation of the right bank for the higher elevations or just the lower? We've heard the Russians have setup defensive lines on the east bank and judging by terrain can be quickly moved back eastward. They're going to lose Crimea and they know it. Maybe the Russians are going to do Russian shit and blow the damn?
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Posted: 11/13/2022 8:20:22 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 1Andy2]
[#38]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Mal_means_bad: Others have mentioned that city infrastructure was sabotaged by the Russians. Also, if the Ukrainians are about to run a big offensive through there they want every truck to be supplying their army, not the civilians. Easier to move them out of the way west. Its almost certainly the infrastructure thing. The Russians have been attacking basic necessities of life for Ukraine for months. There is no doubt in my mind they sabotaged as much power/water/sewer, etc as they could in Kherson to cause maximum civilian death and suffering. The "This is actually Russia!" thing is such a fuckin sham. Even they don't consider it "real" Russia. |
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Posted: 11/13/2022 8:21:10 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Bluegrasscardinal: In all fairness, NATO has been moving closer to the Russian border for the last 30 years. Ukraine, like Georgia, are red lines for Moscow. If they move in, they'll annex the eastern portion to link with Crimea. Nobody will do anything, from a military standpoint, at least. |
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CA, USA
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Posted: 11/13/2022 8:26:07 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jack67: This is looking increasingly likely. I have wondered about this since the attack on the Sevastopol naval base. Objectively, that was a "Doolittle" type exercise some thought. I kept wondering if they were really degrading the surface capabilities to allow Crimean ops, and not just degrade the naval missile batteries or strike a psychological blow. - The weather in Crimea is suitable for mobile winter ops, unlike most of the rest of Ukraine. - The dry season in most of Crimea, and especially the north, is winter. - Temperatures are very moderate by continental standards because of the marine effect. - The terrain is very suitable for mobile ops. - The momentum is very much with Ukr now and it's a net disadvantage to them to slow down for winter. This has to be a huge advantage they do not want to surrender. The large scale of the late-October drone attacks, and not long on the heels of the bridge attack, got me to wondering about that. If they are putting units across the Dnieper estuary immediately, it implies they've been planning this a long time. If they can get 30, 40 miles further south they can continue mobile ground ops all winter, against an enemy with severely constrained GLOCs and a severely degraded naval force, eliminating a flanking threat from the sea. It's almost like there's a big, complicated, multi-front plan all coming together right now. ;) That's probably a good thing. I would think Ukraine doesn't want to fight down to 2014 lines. If that happens, then the EU demand for negotiations will become deafening. Led by German to get their gas turned back on. In fact, it appears that Germany has been trying to restart negotiations between Ukraine and russia all along. |
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Posted: 11/13/2022 8:29:53 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Zhukov: It doesn't change the fact that the Russian population is extremely thin when it comes to military-aged males. They really can't throw soldiers into the meatgrinder like they used to. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e8/Russian_population_%28demographic%29_pyramid_%28structure%29_on_January%2C_1st%2C_2022.png I think you put way more value on the russian military age males than they do. Russia has lost like 50-100k and I'll bet they will be perfectly fine with losing twice that. They have something like 20,000,000 between 20 years old and 40 years old. Civilians who complain will be jailed as terrorists. Males who complain will be sent to the front. We have not yet remotely seen what the russian state is willing to do to civilians to shut them up. Russians have seen it. |
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Posted: 11/13/2022 8:32:17 PM EDT
[#42]
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Posted: 11/13/2022 8:38:27 PM EDT
[#43]
ISW assessment for November 13th.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-13 |
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Posted: 11/13/2022 8:49:06 PM EDT
[#44]
 The Russian Propaganda (For Dummies) |
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FIN
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Posted: 11/13/2022 8:59:20 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By CharlieR: They lost 1200 KIA per day fighting Napoleon and won the war. They lost 1600 KIA per day against Finland and won the war. They lost 7000 KIA per day against the Germans and won the war. That has had... consequences. 
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Posted: 11/13/2022 8:59:54 PM EDT
[#46]
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Posted: 11/13/2022 9:05:06 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FhdmkeaWIAI1DRK?format=jpg&name=large I don't know about this rumor. It seems a little off to me. If they are moving forward with any kind of force, they would have needed ways to get some armor across. Also, fighting your way off of that skinny ass piece of land to get into it with the main Russian force doesn't look too promising to my completely untrained military eye. If it was done at all, my bet is that it is some kind of feint or effort to get the orc artillery to open up and show itself. |
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Posted: 11/13/2022 9:11:14 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By urbanredneck: These drones dropping grenades....how high are they operaring? Have a hard time believing they aren't spotted by russians. Somebody earlier said they counted the time from release to impact and said it was something like 300m. A small drone is very hard to hear at 1000ft up, especially with all the other battlefield noise going on. |
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Posted: 11/13/2022 9:12:17 PM EDT
[#49]
 
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PA, USA
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Posted: 11/13/2022 9:13:29 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FhdmkeaWIAI1DRK?format=jpg&name=large Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FhdmkeaWIAI1DRK?format=jpg&name=large Previous posts: page 2923 Posted: 10/29/2022 10:28:16 PM EST Originally Posted By Prime:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FgSKZOGXoAE1eJk?format=jpg&name=large page 2924 Posted: 10/31/2022 7:17:45 PM EST Originally Posted By Circuits: RU moved a bunch of forces out on the Kinburn spit, which puts them in easy artillery range of Ochakiv and the Dnipr river mouth below Kherson. Roughly 2 weeks ago, it was being reported the Russians were setting up positions on Kinburn. What happened to them? Where did they go? What Kinburn defense doing? |
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