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Originally Posted By lorazepam: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FUdDHbAXEAAUGZW?format=png&name=small View Quote Screen Name? |
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Originally Posted By M-1975:
View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By M-1975: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Another angle of the Russian aircraft shootdown.
I wonder if they caught it doing the “rocket toss” maneuver? There was a video a couple of days ago purporting to show a helicopter shoot-down, where it appears the copter had just shot rockets and was heading back down to the deck. The tactic is basically: Fly a profile at a certain altitude, pitch up to a specified angle and launch. The launch point would be based on the launch angle and the distance to the likely target. Knowing what the standard angle of release was, and what the target was (probably a city) you should be able to draw a circle on the map representing the pitch-up point. Then figure out the Russian aircraft’s likely direction of approach, and bingo, you have a nice place to put a MANPAD ambush along a relatively limited arc of territory. The fact we’re seeing two possible such shoot-downs in two or three days makes me wonder if the UA has made some countermoves. |
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Originally Posted By Prime: Kadyrov claims to have destroyed M777s and presents as evidence an artillery strike filmed from a drone a mile away with mud on the lens. https://vk.com/wall279938622_1378739 View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Prime: Kadyrov claims to have destroyed M777s and presents as evidence an artillery strike filmed from a drone a mile away with mud on the lens. https://vk.com/wall279938622_1378739 I already told you about the American M777 guns we destroyed in Lisichansk. Attached is video evidence. The Nazis naively believed that if the howitzers were driven away after the shelling into the storage facilities, then they could be avoided by our drones. Next time, Nazis, you don’t have to work in vain - their location is calculated by calculating the ballistic trajectory, which was done by the fighters of the Akhmat special forces unit together with the second army corps of the LPR People’s Militia. A few pinpoint strikes, and five 155mm howitzers, along with ammunition, are now a useless pile of metal. You can hand them over, Nazis, like scrap back to the Americans. WE’LL. SEND. MORE. |
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Originally Posted By ad_nauseam: Russian Federation has a sure way to win and that is to declare total mobilization and declare it a "war". Right now RF is fighting with a limited force against a totally mobilized country. View Quote @capta has given a detailed answer about the political and logistical constraints of mobilization. Let me add one more point wrt the original post - that Russia did not engage with "limited force." They threw their very best units into it from day one, and they are gone - just destroyed. "Zerg rush" is a fair analogy - at this point they mostly only have zerglings for ground forces and that's all they can generate for the future. While Stalin's adage that "quantity has a quality of its own" is not pointless, it has its limits. If you look at the Russian order of battle, it is NOT good. A comparison from WWII would be this - it you were a US Armored division, would you rather take on the 3rd SS Panzer Division, or FIVE Volksgrenadier divisions? You'd take the five - hands down. And you'd win handily. You would prevail against the SS, but it would be costly. At this point, Russia is putting together zerg junk and it's all they can really put together going forward. The elite units are gone and they aren't coming back in this fight. |
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Originally Posted By Capta: WE’LL. SEND. MORE. View Quote RE: Kadyrov and 777s. I think his subtext is that Kadyrov is almost undoubtedly lying. This is the guy who posted a video of himself praying at a gas station in Ukraine - which turned out to be in Rostov Oblast 100 miles or so from the border. Point being, he just makes stuff up and lives in cloud-cuckoo land. Kadyrov fakes presence in Ukraine |
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Originally Posted By Piratepast40: Since the Russians control the Black Sea, I don't see Odessa as a viable port for Ukraine now. If the fighting stopped today, Odessa doesn't do Ukraine any good. That may change over time, but for now, Ukraine is essentially landlocked. I see no need for the Russians to take Odessa as long as they can control the Black Sea. View Quote Odessa is a long-term goal for Putin, nearly a must-have. It's a historic Russian city (in Russian view); if there were any peace it would be a significant export facility for much of Ukraine's export trade; losing Odessa would diminish Ukraine significantly. A rump Ukraine would be easier to tolerate, easier to manipulate & control, less worth the attention of the rest of Europe. Odessa is still a strategic key. Cutting off Ukraine's export capacity accomplishes several strategic goals. It destroys Ukraine's economy; taking Ukrainian grain exports off the global market creates pressure on the nations supporting Ukraine; it grants Russia significantly more resources in mineral wealth. |
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Russia doesn’t have it in them to seize Odessa.
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Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Odessa is a long-term goal for Putin, nearly a must-have. It's a historic Russian city (in Russian view); if there were any peace it would be a significant export facility for much of Ukraine's export trade; losing Odessa would diminish Ukraine significantly. A rump Ukraine would be easier to tolerate, easier to manipulate & control, less worth the attention of the rest of Europe. Odessa is still a strategic key. Cutting off Ukraine's export capacity accomplishes several strategic goals. It destroys Ukraine's economy; taking Ukrainian grain exports off the global market creates pressure on the nations supporting Ukraine; it grants Russia significantly more resources in mineral wealth. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Originally Posted By Piratepast40: Since the Russians control the Black Sea, I don't see Odessa as a viable port for Ukraine now. If the fighting stopped today, Odessa doesn't do Ukraine any good. That may change over time, but for now, Ukraine is essentially landlocked. I see no need for the Russians to take Odessa as long as they can control the Black Sea. Odessa is a long-term goal for Putin, nearly a must-have. It's a historic Russian city (in Russian view); if there were any peace it would be a significant export facility for much of Ukraine's export trade; losing Odessa would diminish Ukraine significantly. A rump Ukraine would be easier to tolerate, easier to manipulate & control, less worth the attention of the rest of Europe. Odessa is still a strategic key. Cutting off Ukraine's export capacity accomplishes several strategic goals. It destroys Ukraine's economy; taking Ukrainian grain exports off the global market creates pressure on the nations supporting Ukraine; it grants Russia significantly more resources in mineral wealth. I think for this to be a possibility you’re looking at a +year long engagement with hundreds of thousands of KIA, WIA, MIA etc on both sides. I don’t think Putins Russia has that in their economy and I’m not sure that Russia could rally the necessary troops and convince them to die for that goal all as international pariahs. I’m not totally sure but I think the attempted Zerg rush the Russians tried is all but over. I’m just not sure how they can fund and assemble the elements necessary to achieve a major offensive in the near future. |
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Originally Posted By Tiberius: The M-14 is heavy AF, totally uncontrollable in full auto, and expensive and difficult to manufacture. Wonderful rifle if you don’t have to hump it and a load of ammo miles and miles though, quite accurate in semi. My Boat still had them in the late ‘80s, loved to shoot them in quals. View Quote Everyone here, including me, lust over a Russian Dragonov DM rifle. Yet the M14 is every bit as capable in the DM role as a Dragonov (M14 is probably a good bit more accurate with match ammo). Ukraine is not buying or manufacturing the M14 and it would be stupid to do so. Also the M14 is not designed for door kickers but for owning the 300-600M space. |
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Originally Posted By Lieh-tzu: Odessa is a long-term goal for Putin, nearly a must-have. It's a historic Russian city (in Russian view); if there were any peace it would be a significant export facility for much of Ukraine's export trade; losing Odessa would diminish Ukraine significantly. A rump Ukraine would be easier to tolerate, easier to manipulate & control, less worth the attention of the rest of Europe. Odessa is still a strategic key. Cutting off Ukraine's export capacity accomplishes several strategic goals. It destroys Ukraine's economy; taking Ukrainian grain exports off the global market creates pressure on the nations supporting Ukraine; it grants Russia significantly more resources in mineral wealth. View Quote If you think russia is going to take Odessa, I want what you are smoking. In 3 months, they have not advanced much beyond what they took in 2014, with catastrophic losses. |
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World ain't what it seems, is it Gunny?
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Originally Posted By YaNi05: This is from mid April, but Russia had about 6000 tanks in storage and probably half or less could ever be operational again. A significant percentage don't have turrets, for example. That's about as in depth as one can get via satellite imagery. But you can imagine some don't have powertrains, some don't have wiring harnesses, some don't have optics, etc. Then you have the issue of sitting outside in the sun, rain, snow for 30 years, and I can imagine that a huge percentage of them will never move again under their own power. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHhgVrKJJoA View Quote Thanks, time well spent |
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God's grace is not cheap; it's free.
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Originally Posted By lorazepam: If you think russia is going to take Odessa, I want what you are smoking. In 3 months, they have not advanced much beyond what they took in 2014, with catastrophic losses. View Quote Yeah. I don't think they've got the moxie to do it either. They shot their wad at Kyiv. |
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Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it.. |
Originally Posted By M-1975:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FUgp9GuWAAIPvb5?format=jpg&name=small https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FUgqAHAWYAAcleL?format=jpg&name=small View Quote It's great seeing good ol' maneuver warfare again, instead of that "pinning jello to the wall" counter-insurgency shit we've been doing for the past 20 years. |
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Originally Posted By M-1975:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FUgp9GuWAAIPvb5?format=jpg&name=small https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FUgqAHAWYAAcleL?format=jpg&name=small View Quote Hopefully gobbeled up like a huge Pac-Man |
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Membership thanks to ml2150! Thanks buddy !
Membership thanks to Retgarr ! Thanks buddy ! |
Originally Posted By iggy1337: Hopefully gobbeled up like a huge Pac-Man View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By iggy1337: Originally Posted By M-1975:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FUgp9GuWAAIPvb5?format=jpg&name=small https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FUgqAHAWYAAcleL?format=jpg&name=small Hopefully gobbeled up like a huge Pac-Man Yea, that's a surprising turn of events, good opportunity to crush them and break the Russian advance in the East. |
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It's not stupid, it's advanced!!
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Originally Posted By Jack67: RE: Kadyrov and 777s. I think his subtext is that Kadyrov is almost undoubtedly lying. This is the guy who posted a video of himself praying at a gas station in Ukraine - which turned out to be in Rostov Oblast 100 miles or so from the border. Point being, he just makes stuff up and lives in cloud-cuckoo land. Kadyrov fakes presence in Ukraine View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Jack67: Originally Posted By Capta: WE’LL. SEND. MORE. RE: Kadyrov and 777s. I think his subtext is that Kadyrov is almost undoubtedly lying. This is the guy who posted a video of himself praying at a gas station in Ukraine - which turned out to be in Rostov Oblast 100 miles or so from the border. Point being, he just makes stuff up and lives in cloud-cuckoo land. Kadyrov fakes presence in Ukraine Sure, I don’t disagree that there is a very strong chance Kadyrov is just bullshitting. But even if he isn’t - this is war and losses happen. Those 777s and crews (if they were actually there) were doing their jobs and shit happens in war. This was never going to be a flawless speedrun, and the people who “support” Ukraine but turn yellow every time Russia scores points need to harden up. |
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Another angle of the Russian aircraft shootdown.
View Quote Please be an SU-57.... |
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Yea, that's a surprising turn of events, good opportunity to crush them and break the Russian advance in the East. View Quote And also a good opportunity to shut up the "Russia is winning!" trolls that have been all over YT, social media and even here in small numbers for the past week because of Severodonetsk. Russia is currently stalled or being pushed back along the entire front, to include Severodonetsk. They aren't advancing ANYWHERE. Russia is most definitely not winning. They have now mostly even lost Severodonetsk, which they partially managed to occupy last week after weeks of fighting and a maximum effort, at frightful costs. As more western weapons roll in and potentially hundreds of thousands of mobilized Ukrainian troops complete training and take to the field, Russia will be lucky if they can hold on to the land they occupied prior to February 24th. |
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I stand with Ukraine. Fuck Putin! And fuck Russia!
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Originally Posted By Charging_Handle: And also a good opportunity to shut up the "Russia is winning!" trolls that have been all over YT, social media and even here in small numbers for the past week because of Severodonetsk. Russia is currently stalled or being pushed back along the entire front, to include Severodonetsk. They aren't advancing ANYWHERE. Russia is most definitely not winning. They have now mostly even lost Severodonetsk, which they partially managed to occupy last week after weeks of fighting and a maximum effort, at frightful costs. As more western weapons roll in and potentially hundreds of thousands of mobilized Ukrainian troops complete training and take to the field, Russia will be lucky if they can hold on to the land they occupied prior to February 24th. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Charging_Handle: Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Yea, that's a surprising turn of events, good opportunity to crush them and break the Russian advance in the East. And also a good opportunity to shut up the "Russia is winning!" trolls that have been all over YT, social media and even here in small numbers for the past week because of Severodonetsk. Russia is currently stalled or being pushed back along the entire front, to include Severodonetsk. They aren't advancing ANYWHERE. Russia is most definitely not winning. They have now mostly even lost Severodonetsk, which they partially managed to occupy last week after weeks of fighting and a maximum effort, at frightful costs. As more western weapons roll in and potentially hundreds of thousands of mobilized Ukrainian troops complete training and take to the field, Russia will be lucky if they can hold on to the land they occupied prior to February 24th. Spot on! It just goes to show you the power of propaganda and information warfare and its ability to influence public opinion worldwide. But at the end of the day, physical results matter and Russia is letting Pooty throw its future away with this blunder in Ukraine. |
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Did we talk about the newly-deaded Russian major general?
First time I've seen photos of a dead one, looks like artillery got him. https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/v5i9lu/russian_major_general_roman_kutuzov_killed_in/ |
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Looks like a TOS-1A being used in direct fire mode.
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/v58r06/russian_tos1a_firing_in_nikolaevkherson/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb |
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It's not stupid, it's advanced!!
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A good Russian.
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Does anyone have any info about the Russian cruise missile strike today in Kyiv? It's been on the news. Supposedly Russia was hitting some facility that was holding US and Western tanks and equipment but Ukraine said it was a train car factory...
Putin was again making threats about Russia hitting more targets if the West sends mid-range systems to UA. Did the Russians have good/bad intel or missed the intended target as usual? If a bunch of Polish/E. German T72's got taken out, it'd be interesting to know. |
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Looks like a TOS-1A being used in direct fire mode. https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/v58r06/russian_tos1a_firing_in_nikolaevkherson/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb View Quote That was impressive. I can only imagine that being used in an urban setting. |
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Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Does anyone have any info about the Russian cruise missile strike today in Kyiv? It's been on the news. Supposedly Russia was hitting some facility that was holding US and Western tanks and equipment but Ukraine said it was a train car factory... Putin was again making threats about Russia hitting more targets if the West sends mid-range systems to UA. Did the Russians have good/bad intel or missed the intended target as usual? If a bunch of Polish/E. German T72's got taken out, it'd be interesting to know. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Does anyone have any info about the Russian cruise missile strike today in Kyiv? It's been on the news. Supposedly Russia was hitting some facility that was holding US and Western tanks and equipment but Ukraine said it was a train car factory... Putin was again making threats about Russia hitting more targets if the West sends mid-range systems to UA. Did the Russians have good/bad intel or missed the intended target as usual? If a bunch of Polish/E. German T72's got taken out, it'd be interesting to know. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-5 Russian forces conducted their first missile strike against Kyiv in over a month on June 5. Advisor to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense Vadym Denysenko stated that Russian forces fired five X-22 cruise missiles from a Tu-95 aircraft at Kyiv from the direction of the Caspian Sea that hit the Darnytsia Rail Car Repair Plant on the outskirts of Kyiv.[7] The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that this strike targeted T-72 tanks supplied to Ukraine by other Eastern European countries, but images of the target area confirm that the missiles hit the Darnytsia plant. It is unclear if Russian forces intended to strike foreign-provided Ukrainian tanks and missed, or if the Kremlin is attempting to obfuscate its intended target. This attack on Kyiv likely indicates that Russian forces are continuing to target Ukrainian infrastructure in non-critical areas of Ukraine in order to disrupt Ukrainian logistics as Russian forces take considerable losses in Donbas. |
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It's not stupid, it's advanced!!
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Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Does anyone have any info about the Russian cruise missile strike today in Kyiv? It's been on the news. Supposedly Russia was hitting some facility that was holding US and Western tanks and equipment but Ukraine said it was a train car factory... Putin was again making threats about Russia hitting more targets if the West sends mid-range systems to UA. Did the Russians have good/bad intel or missed the intended target as usual? If a bunch of Polish/E. German T72's got taken out, it'd be interesting to know. View Quote Only Russia says anything about foreign tanks in connection with this. Apparently local media went to one of the strike sites and filmed no evidence of tanks. |
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Serious question say by august most of Ukraine’s reserves and mobilized troops are in theater. And say they overwhelm Russia and push them back. Who’s gonna stop a force that dedicated and hungry from marching on Moscow?
People say nukes but what if that isn’t a deterrent for Ukraine knowing that if they don’t cut the head off the snake they’ll be back in 15-20 years… |
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Russians don’t fight near so well on other peoples land as they do on their own.
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Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott: Only Russia says anything about foreign tanks in connection with this. Apparently local media went to one of the strike sites and filmed no evidence of tanks. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott: Originally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: Does anyone have any info about the Russian cruise missile strike today in Kyiv? It's been on the news. Supposedly Russia was hitting some facility that was holding US and Western tanks and equipment but Ukraine said it was a train car factory... Putin was again making threats about Russia hitting more targets if the West sends mid-range systems to UA. Did the Russians have good/bad intel or missed the intended target as usual? If a bunch of Polish/E. German T72's got taken out, it'd be interesting to know. Only Russia says anything about foreign tanks in connection with this. Apparently local media went to one of the strike sites and filmed no evidence of tanks. Could've been bad intel, but more likely was just a propaganda strike for domestic consumption. The Russian government will claim it destroyed 200 nazi gangster tanks and the Russian people will believe it. Cost, just a few missiles. Note that they worked the “wonder weapon” SU-57 into the story as well. |
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Originally Posted By fadedsun: Don’t need a rack to loot Abandoned homes https://i.postimg.cc/dVC34xLQ/DEC00-CD5-C124-4-CFA-8572-5-E6-FBF13-FF5-B.jpg https://i.postimg.cc/HLCxK9yw/6721-FFC7-23-FD-4-A1-A-94-D2-9-ACB229-D86-A4.jpg View Quote Hope that Orc and the rest of his tank crew eats a ATGM soon |
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Blameless, the tempest will be just that
So try as you may, feeble, your attempt to atone Your words to erase all the damage cannot A tempest must be just that |
Originally Posted By Doritodust: Serious question say by august most of Ukraine’s reserves and mobilized troops are in theater. And say they overwhelm Russia and push them back. Who’s gonna stop a force that dedicated and hungry from marching on Moscow? People say nukes but what if that isn’t a deterrent for Ukraine knowing that if they don’t cut the head off the snake they’ll be back in 15-20 years… View Quote Because ensuring the backing of the US nuclear deterrent force is far less likely if the Ukrainians march on Moscow. They also don't have the logistical capability to do it. Russia is already in deep shit and will be in deeper shit in three months. There will be a coup/revolution of some sort combined with economic collapse within a year give or take. Think 1917 all over again. No need to invade, Russia will implode on their own, and thats if they don't do something monumentally stupid first. |
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Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Yea, that's a surprising turn of events, good opportunity to crush them and break the Russian advance in the East. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By AlmightyTallest: Originally Posted By iggy1337: Originally Posted By M-1975:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FUgp9GuWAAIPvb5?format=jpg&name=small https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FUgqAHAWYAAcleL?format=jpg&name=small Hopefully gobbeled up like a huge Pac-Man Yea, that's a surprising turn of events, good opportunity to crush them and break the Russian advance in the East. I would almost put money on UKR arty on the heights out side the city doing a sort of moving barrage in front of advancing troops all WW1 like. |
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Coyote with 40 people crammed into a minivan gets into a chase with DPS, Paco over estimates his driving abilities and *whmmo!* the Astrovan of Immigration becomes a Pinata of Pain, hurling broken bodies like so many tasty pieces of cheap candy...
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In an era of stress and anxiety, when the present seems unstable and the future unlikely, the natural response is to withdraw from reality, taking recourse in fantasies of the future or in modified visions of a half-imagined past.
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Coyote with 40 people crammed into a minivan gets into a chase with DPS, Paco over estimates his driving abilities and *whmmo!* the Astrovan of Immigration becomes a Pinata of Pain, hurling broken bodies like so many tasty pieces of cheap candy...
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Originally Posted By Shockergd: Did we talk about the newly-deaded Russian major general? First time I've seen photos of a dead one, looks like artillery got him. https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/v5i9lu/russian_major_general_roman_kutuzov_killed_in/ View Quote Why does everything on Reddit have to be age and app protected |
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Originally Posted By Doritodust: Serious question say by august most of Ukraine’s reserves and mobilized troops are in theater. And say they overwhelm Russia and push them back. Who’s gonna stop a force that dedicated and hungry from marching on Moscow? People say nukes but what if that isn’t a deterrent for Ukraine knowing that if they don’t cut the head off the snake they’ll be back in 15-20 years… View Quote They could go south and free Georgia/osetia |
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Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it.. |
Originally...Posted...By...fadedsun: Why...does...everything...on...Reddit...have...to...be...age...and...app...protected View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally...Posted...By...fadedsun: Originally...Posted...By...Shockergd: Did...we...talk...about...the...newly-deaded...Russian...major...general? First...time...I've...seen...photos...of...a...dead...one,...looks...like...artillery...got...him. https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/v5i9lu/russian_major_general_roman_kutuzov_killed_in/ Why...does...everything...on...Reddit...have...to...be...age...and...app...protected |
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First good footage of today’s fighter shootdown. Comments elsewhere say SU-25.
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/v5mes3/fighter_jet_of_unclear_origin_shot_down_in_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3 |
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Originally Posted By Capta: First good footage of today’s fighter shootdown. Comments elsewhere say SU-25. https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/v5mes3/fighter_jet_of_unclear_origin_shot_down_in_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3 View Quote Good toasty fireball footage. Cant see were the hit came from? https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/v5mes3/fighter_jet_of_unclear_origin_shot_down_in_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3 |
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Membership thanks to ml2150! Thanks buddy !
Membership thanks to Retgarr ! Thanks buddy ! |
Originally Posted By Capta: Ukraine isn’t totally mobilized yet. They started with 200K troops and are on their way to 700K-1M. How many they actually have right now is anyone’s guess, but it probably isn’t 700k for another few months. This has been discussed at length, but for Russia, declaring a full mobilization carries some severe costs. It would put the lie to three months of “special operation” propaganda. The economy, already on the ropes, would collapse quickly. Moscow and St. Petersburg kids would start dying instead of poor rural expendable kids, leading to inconvenient public questions. It will be increasingly obvious that Putin’s ruling elite have robbed the country blind and Russian kids are dying because of it. Russia would have the choice of either properly training their fresh troops, causing a delay of many months, or sending them straight into the meat-grinder. I think its likely they send them into the meat grinder. Russia cannot equip them with anything besides AKs (maybe even SKSs) and obsolete heavy equipment which is vulnerable to nearly everything. Casualty rates would be horrific against an entrenched and by that time hardened Ukrainian army. Russia cannot supply a mass army outside its own borders. OK, send two million men south. They’ll be eating grass in two weeks. Against this, the west (specifically the US) still has no shortage of modern, first line gear to send. Russia sending 2,000 T-55s against you? OK, here’s another 200 MLRS. Problem solved. We’re barely scratching the surface on obsolescent tanks/APCs (i.e. M-60, M113) and we haven’t even begun to send fighters. Given the western will to continue to supply arty ammo and MLRS, I question whether even an all-out zerg rush could take the country. Ukraine would continue to fight, they have no choice. IMO a full Russian mobilization is FAR more likely to lead to a 1917-style collapse than a costly victory. View Quote You are right. However, the other side of the coin is that the UA economy in serious trouble, millions of people are displaced and it's running on fumes. Next year, even this winter will be brutal for both countries. In this war of attrition, the real question is, who hits the bottom first. If you don't, you are the winner. |
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Originally Posted By Jack67: @capta has given a detailed answer about the political and logistical constraints of mobilization. Let me add one more point wrt the original post - that Russia did not engage with "limited force." They threw their very best units into it from day one, and they are gone - just destroyed. "Zerg rush" is a fair analogy - at this point they mostly only have zerglings for ground forces and that's all they can generate for the future. While Stalin's adage that "quantity has a quality of its own" is not pointless, it has its limits. If you look at the Russian order of battle, it is NOT good. A comparison from WWII would be this - it you were a US Armored division, would you rather take on the 3rd SS Panzer Division, or FIVE Volksgrenadier divisions? You'd take the five - hands down. And you'd win handily. You would prevail against the SS, but it would be costly. At this point, Russia is putting together zerg junk and it's all they can really put together going forward. The elite units are gone and they aren't coming back in this fight. View Quote They threw their very best in it from day one, I get that. Historically, RF has won wars by mobilizing the entire country, suspending production of anything remotely related to civilian needs and throwing millions at the problem. Just one major battle, the battle for Berlin has cost them 200K. How do you think they lost 20 million? If they throw numbers at this problem, they would surely win. They have more than 100 million more citizens. How many of fighting age, not clear. During WWII bicycle shops made PPSH submachine guns, women drove tractors, kids worked in factories as adults. They can't win this conflict without returning to WWII like mobilization. Whether it's feasible - likely not. But. |
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Originally Posted By Ryan_Scott: Russia doesn’t have it in them to seize Odessa. View Quote probably so, but they can try. UA now has no option but fight to retake sea of Azov ports like Mariupol and also Crimea. They accepted their loss around 2014, Donbass area and the peninsula and now they have no reason not to take fight and attempt to retake. What's the worst that can happen? |
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25m men of fighting age. 2m or more of whom have left.
Calling up too many people could lead to violence in Russia though. |
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Originally Posted By iggy1337: Good toasty fireball footage. Cant see were the hit came from? https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/v5mes3/fighter_jet_of_unclear_origin_shot_down_in_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3 View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By iggy1337: Originally Posted By Capta: First good footage of today’s fighter shootdown. Comments elsewhere say SU-25. https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/v5mes3/fighter_jet_of_unclear_origin_shot_down_in_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3 Good toasty fireball footage. Cant see were the hit came from? https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/v5mes3/fighter_jet_of_unclear_origin_shot_down_in_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3 That's the interesting thing, it got hit near the engines, but the missile could have been a long range shot where you wouldn't see a smoky trail. |
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It's not stupid, it's advanced!!
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