Originally Posted By Banditman:


Plenty of civilians have been killed as well as soldiers. I think you are missing the civilian dead.

Originally Posted By Samal:
just based on that picture and assuming they have let's say 10-12 of these cemeteries in the county now (the funeral procession looked local) - I would estimate more like 10K+ KIA on UA side :(

Originally Posted By Samal:

I understand this and understand the need for misinformation and the power of the infowar, but if UA has a similar rate of losses as RF, it doesn't look good in the long term.

Originally Posted By Dracster:

Are those all military?

Originally Posted By kncook:


Currently massive battles occuring and both sides arent wanting a lot of social media posting saying whats happening to comprmose posisions. Very fluid right now with no "clear/definate" answers or results from ongoing fighting. Expect images to come out in following days of todays fighting. Nothing instant and Im sure UA forces (and depending on discipline the RU forces) are on media lockdown/blackout.

Originally Posted By BerettaGuy:
I just got this info from a good source. I can't post who sent it to me and I don't have the photos mentioned.



April 18 - Day 54 - Official Lies, Maybe gloves off in the East,  Switchblades and Missing Crewmen


The image of the gentleman with the bread is Jacek Polewski, a cook from Poznan who went to Ukraine and who is baking for the people in Bucha.

The video is of Ukrainian Marines in a prisoner of war detention center. It is pretty clear the Ukrainian government two days ago was lying when an official said “about 700” Ukrainian service personnel are POWs. There are now too many videos of purported Marines in detention, to assume it's just RF propaganda.

According to RF state media more than 1,400 Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) service personnel fighting in Mariupol laid down their arms. Even if this is an exaggeration, based on the size of the force that probably surrendered, it seems very likely that the official Ukrainian government estimate of UAF POWs was much lower than the reality. Fibbing about POWs in a war is a bad idea and given public trust in the military, in Ukraine it's an even worse idea. Logically, this will come back and bite the Zelensky administration politically. Hard evidence of a ground defeat of UAF forces cannot be wished away with government spin, and the Ukrainians will not be happy that service member presence in enemy custody is being denied by the government.

Mind you, I haven't seen hard evidence of 1,000+ UAF POWs in one place. But I expect sooner or later we will.

In Mariupol itself, a hard core of Marine and Azov fighters continued to hold out in the Azov steel works. Ukrainian social media reports widely speculated the RF would bring in Tu-22 strategic bombers to drop bombs weighing a ton or more on the factory, to try and level it. Also, according to those reports, some 2,500 UAF fighters are still holding out, and besides them close to a thousand civilians are on the factory premises - or, much more likely, in tunnels and cellars under them - as well.

Over the weekend the RF sent another message to the Mariupol defenders that they surrender, as before it was rejected.

Donbass - It may not be the big offensive, but they’re shooing a whole lot more

The weekend saw exchanges of fire roughly double at the various locations in this sector the two sides are in contact. According to both the Army General Staff (AGS) and Luhansk area defense head Haidai, the hottest two spots were Popasna, to the south of Severodetsk and Kremenna/Kreminna, to the north of Severodonetsk. The AGS said defenses at both locations were holding, but Hadai late on Monday afternoon said RF forces had captured Kremenna after more than 24 hours of heavy street fighting. He said that the RF had assembled a large quantity of armored vehicles there, without giving specifics. On Friday, the UAF had put in what now seems to have been a spoiling attack on Kremenna, capturing the village and, apparently, forcing RF forces to fight their way through it.  Again, as of Monday afternoon, Kremenna was owned by the RF.

The UAF faces two big problems in this part of Luhansk region. First, were that armored column in Kremenna to start rolling south at speed, then Severodonetsk and the forces in it could be cut off. Based on JominiAtWar and other sources there could be elements of as many as three UAF brigades caught in that pocket: 79th Assault, 128th Mountain and 57th Motorized. The 79th and the 128th have good fighting reputations, but the more the RF advances south here the more those units are exposed.  

The second potential problem is the RF might will not only pushing south in this sector Kremenna. As a possible counter-measure, according to a military journalist named Kosyantin Mashovets, the UAF captured Sviatohirsk on Sunday, theoretically forming a defensive backstop for UAF units retreating out of Kremenna. Your guess is as good as mine as to whether this is the UAF conducting a careful defense in depth and exacting serious tolls in men and equipment, or if this is the UAF struggling to prevent a disaster.

Sourth of Lysychansk, one of the most eastern UAF positions, 24th Mech Brigade in a unit post claimed it stopped a major attack and destroyed multiple tanks, without offering details. The opposition, they said, were elements of the RF’s 810th(S (Sevastopol) and 155th Naval Infantry Brigades (Vladivostok). Both these formations were badly cut up in fighting around Kyiv in March, so it is not likely their attack against the 24th was in full strength or with the best-trained troops. In any case, this is a hard indication of RF units pulled off the line for rest being thrown back into combat.

The ACS said that on Sunday UAF forces in Donbass did serious execution across the line, claiming 15 tanks, 3 artillery systems, 24 infantry fighting vehicles, 10 trucks, 4 UAVs and two cruise missiles.  ( numbers do not include losses from today’s Kremenna fight, both RF and UAF. )

Kharkiv sector - not at all empty, pretty violent, actually

There was significant fighting out over the weekend and today, outside the geographical Donbass, in the eastern Kharkiv region, as RF and UAF forces continued battles to the south of Izium, in what appears to be a duel for control of the Izium-Kramatorsk highway. Here a UAF unit (not clear to me which one, but possibly 93rd Mech) in fighting on Sunday claimed it devastated an RF column, destroying 18 (!) RF tanks, a not-mentioned quantity of infantry fighting vehicles, and Ka-52 helicopter. Allegedly, the RF opposition here likewise was Marine Infantry. Pic included of an impact area for 93rd Mech artillery fires.

Also, over the weekend the UAF, according to official reports, appears to have moved to widen terrain controlled to the south and east of Kharkiv, capturing the villages Lebyazhe, Bazalievka, Pechenegi and Stary Saltovka, and engaging RF forces in Kutuzovka. The military reporter Mashovets confirmed the UAF had increased its footprint in the Kharkiv-Izium sector. Assuming these two reports are true, then potentially these are signs of a possible UAF push to the east, from the Kharkiv sector, at least theoretically aiming at the flank and even rear of RF forces pushing south from Izium.  I swiped a map to show you the lay of the land in that area: roughly, Dovhenke is where the UAF might go.

Readers of the Saturday report will recall a mention of this possibility. I think it’s worth repeating here: it’s not at all clear the UAF has the force available to make a big push in this area.

South:

Official and local reports described exchanges of artillery fire at numerous locations, and several RF pushes with their traditional armored columns.

According to the Zaporizhia defense command, RF forces operating primarily in the open terrain north of Mykolaiv limited its efforts to shelling towns and villages where it had encountered UAF forces:  Gulyaipole, Novoandrivka, Bilogir'ya, Malyn, Pavlivka, Pavlivka, Priyutne, Kam'yansk, Orikhiv, and Mala Tokmachka. The statement said RF forces threw the kitchen sink at these locations, with strikes by  multiple launch rocket systems, cannon artillery, 120-mm mortars and large-caliber machine guns reported. There were no major attacks and probes were turned, with RF losses including three tanks, four rocket artillery systems, seven infantry fighting vehicles, an unnamed number of trucks and 60 dead, the report claimed. Overall, in the southern sector, this was more RF activity than any day in the past week.

On Sunday Mykolaiv defense command head Vitaly Kim related an unconfirmed report that, in the town of Novo Kakhovka, RF regular forces came into conflict with and subsequently engaged with small arms a DLPR police unit, over ownership of loot. Kim said: “It was one of those times when you just don’t know who to root for.”

Equipment:

- According to a Sunday news report ultimately sourced by the Pentagon the US Switchblade 300 scored its first kill, although where and against what wasn’t mentioned. The statement said the weapon “exceeded expectations”. Since the Switchblade 300 is a kamikaze drone designed to take out individuals and light vehicles, I assume “exceeding expectations” means the UAF figured out a way to use it against an armored vehicle. Well see if that speculation is right. In any case, this is an excellent example of words in Washington not equaling result on the ground. If you listen to the White House and the Pentagon, a huge pipeline of military supplies is pouring into Ukraine. That may be, but, the Switchblades were approved in the second half of March, it’s now the middle of April, and the heavy Switchblades - which are advertised to take out tanks - have yet to be seen. Essentially, it took the Americans nearly a month to put a drone with a grenade-sized explosive charge and some reasonably good optics on it, into action on a Ukrainian battlefield. That’s a pretty long time for a superpower that likes to brag about how great its logistics capacities are.

RF career developments and more on the Moskva:

- Ukrainian media heavily reported over the weekend that Eduard Basurin, head of the DPR, got arrested and “taken away by men in civilian clothes”. This is supposedly because he blabbed about plans to pump poison gas or some other chemical into the Azov steel works to smoke out the defenders and avoid a bloody infantry fight, if the RF has to go in there after them. Also, allegedly, he is in big trouble for shambolic DPR attacks against the UAF, and for losing the town Horlivka. All this this smells like UAF hybrid warfare noise, and there’s no confirmation.

-  What appears to be confirmed, or at least, it’s being widely reported, is that Admiral Igor Osipov, head of the RF Black Sea fleet, got sacked over the weekend. Previous reports had noted he was seen being put into a car, in Sevastopol, by what appeared to civilian officials recently arrived from Moscow. According to the news agencies, he may face charges for his part in the Moskva’s sinking and, less possibly, failure to take necessary steps to save the Moskva’s 540-man crew.

- An information war argument is already boiling on how many men and officers of the Moskva survived, with RF news agencies basically saying nothing but showing images of seamen RF news claims were Moskva survivors, but to independent observers looked very much like naval cadets told to stand in a formation and keep their mouths shut. Image attached.

The RF independent newspaper Novaya Gazeta tracked down the mother of one survivor, Yegor Shkrebet who, according to the article, citing his mother Irina, said that actually more than 200 crew members suffered various injuries when two Ukrainian missiles hit the cruiser, and were being treated in a Sevastopol military hospital. Many were burn victims, and no one seemed to know where the other 340 crew members had got to, the article said.

Finally, according to source I believe, the final image - a handwritten note - is from soldiers in a UAF unit that found itself quartered on an evacuated home. When they departed the left the note apologizing for the mess and damage and leaving a phone number, so that after the war they can pay for what they ate and broke. If you like, contrast this to RF troop behavior in Bucha. I know I did.

April 19 - Day 55 - Firepower, Easter offensive, and RF recruiting


Lots of visuals today. One interesting video, from the Donbass region.

The video is UAF soldiers picking over the remains of a T-72 tank. You can make out something very big shelled it, and since it was in some kind of enclosure with walls, odds are the UAF were using a drone. Notice the giant crater? This is because this time, per the voiceover, the UAF didn’t use hum-drum artillery, but a very big gun, which they call a Pion. It’s a big, ungainly, heavy, Soviet-era howitzer that fires a shell that weighs over 50 kg. Normally tanks move too often for a Pion howitzer to hit them. The fact that the UAF managed this is a testament to their skill with artillery - not just gunnery, but intelligence, target acquisition, and on-the-ground follow-up. I’ve included an image of a Pion firing in training, for those of you who want a look at the system itself.

NOTE: There was a second video that I thought was night firing from what I believed to be the Severodonetsk sector. In fact it was a training video. Thanks to the sharp-eyed reader that spotted it, and video removed.

The UAF sapper with the ammo in the dirt is just doing his job in Irpen’. This would not be noteworthy, except Irpen’ is one of those former farming villages that saw a good deal of upper-end real estate development for professionals wanting to live in green space not too far from the big city. Imagine someone pulling unexploded munitions out of the ground in Reading, Rambouillet or Södertälje - that’s roughly the disconnect most Ukrainians would see in that picture.  

Donbass, a/k/a the Putin Easter Offensive:

Although the US and Britain as of last I read were still on the fence, practically every Ukrainian military source possible today said the Russian Federation has kicked off its big offensive today. If that wasn’t enough no less than the Kremlin’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, along with the long-invisible Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, told Russian state television this is it and the objective to to take full control of all of Ukraine’s Luhansk and Donetsk regions. According to Shoigu, the RF will employ new tactics taking into account combat experience so far.

The biggest attack, as of afternoon on Tuesday, appear to have been towards the remains of the village Kremmena, to the north of Severodonetsk, with another strong push towards UAF defensive positions south of Izium. Beyond that, UAF forces in Rubizhne and Popasna also were hit with attacks. In general the UAF claimed it held except in Kremmena, where some officials (regional level) said it was lost to RF forces, and other officials (national level) arguing no, street fighting is still going on. The Institute for the Study of War put out an excellent general map of the area, attached. I believe the UAF put out the map of the Sloviansk sector, also attached.

Overnight practically all normal targets for regular RF fires against UAF positions and civilian structures in the vicinity - Popasna, Advievka, Rubizhne - saw more intense bombardments than usual. Probably, this was part of Shoigu’s tactical adjustments. The town of Lysychansk was reportedly particularly hard hit. According to mayor Dmytry Komarov, in the east-most sections of the UAF line, the RF strategy is simply to flatten everything and destroy all structures, including with aerial bombs against apartment buildings. Social media images showed the nighttime launches of dozens of 122mm Grad rockets in Lysychansk’s direction. There were no reports of UAF retreats in this area.

Military journalist journalist Ivan Yakovin on Tuesday reported that south of Izium on Monday elements of the elite 106th RF Airborne Division (Tula) was forming into attack columns. Possibly, this was a participant in the attacks south of Izium on Tuesday. As of last writing, it appears the primary UAF units defending in this area are 25th Airborne Brigade and 81st Air Assault Brigade. It’s hard to say how worn down these formations are, but by training and tradition, they are fighting units that would not give ground easily. President Zelensky in a speech today said that the UAF had a “99 percent chance” of stopping the big RF attack.

Oleh Sinehubov, head of the Kharkiv regional defense command, in video comments today also said the big RF attack in Donbass has kicked off, and added that it will likely have trouble, because its west flank is vulnerable, this because Kharkiv region now basically is owned by the UAF. As many observers had pointed out earlier - including this report - for the Putin’s Easter Offensive to succeed its northern wing must be supplied from a railhead in Kupiansk by road through Izium. If Sinehubov’s description of the situation in Kharkiv region is accurate, then two major formations - 92nd and 93rd Mech Brigades - would become available to attack that supply line. The RF alternative would be to commit forces to defend the Kupiansk-Izium road, but of course units committed would be taken away from the main attack.

It remains to be seen how RF theater commander General Dvornikov will deal with loss of control of Kharkiv region, and UAF forces potentially turned loose as a result. According to the Ukrainian Army General Staff (AGS), over the last two days the RF has been shifting heavy S-300 anti-aircraft systems into Kharkiv region (guess they didn’t talk to Sinehubov) and very heavy S-400 anti-aircraft systems into Belgorod Oblast’. The conventional interpretation of this move is the RF intends to back its attacks in northern Donbass with the RF air force, and to prevent the UAF air force from intervening as well.

According to Viktor Andriusiv, the founder of the Ishchi Svoikh information stream for RF survivors of RF soldiers killed, wounded or taken prisoner in Ukraine, heavy rains throughout Donbass have soaked the ground.

South:

This sector reportedly saw only one major attack: an attempt RF “storm” of the town Oleksandrivka, which the UAF turned back killing 28 soldiers and destroying five light armored vehicles or trucks.

Otherwise, it was RF artillery vs. Ukrainian civlian homes and businesses. In the Kryvy Rih sector, according to area defense command Oleskandr Vykup, artillery and rocket artillery fire hit to villages of  Zelenodol’sk, Marynske, and Velika Kostromka. Heavy rockets hit Mykolaiv.

In Mariupol, the RF used air bombs and all manner of firepower to try and blast UAF defenders out of the Azov steel mill, in some cases using three ton air bombs delivered by strategic bombers. A two-hour ceasefire offered by the RF for the factory fighters to surrender came and went with no reported takers. At 6 PM, the “DPR” announced a “final assault” on the factory had begun.

Stuff for the UAF:

South Korea - According to scattered Ukraine news reports, Kyiv has convinced Seoul to consider transferring to Ukraine T-80U tanks and BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles. No doubt this is the same sort of speculation that we have seen with Cyprus and Slovakia - a little country with Russian kit hands their stuff over to the Ukrainians, and then the Americans swoop in with replacement gear, and of course maintenance contracts lasting decades. Also, South Korea is a two months delivery time away from Ukraine, given the RF blockade on Ukrainian seaports, and that’s not calculating for time lost to bureaucracy, which would probably be another two months. South Korean heavy weapons to Ukraine are about as useful as German heavy weapons.

Britain - Announced it would send Ukraine the Stormer High Velocity Missile (HVM) launcher, which is an excellent light armored vehicle armed with the also-excellent Starstreak short-ish range anti-aircraft missiles. How many exactly and when will the get to Ukraine? I trust all reading this are starting to see a pattern to a lot of the arms support Ukraine is getting. If words were anti-tank shells, this war would be over. But anyway I've attached a picture.

Netherlands (!) - The Premier had a phone call with Zelensky, after which the Netherlands government put out a press release stating Holland will send armored vehicles to Ukraine and will discuss ways to help out the Ukrainians with other weapons. Again, if words were bullets…

RF Army:

According to UAF army intelligence and Ukrainian independent news sources, the RF army manpower shortage isn’t improving. These factoids might be indicative of nothing, but it might also be a trend.

- 126th Coast Guard Brigade (Crimea) - 75 percent casualties
- 810th   Separate Marine Infantry Brigade (Crimea) -  158 dead, around 500 injured, 70 missing in action
- 200th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade (Arctic Warfare, Pechenga) - More than 100 soldiers and officers quit rather than go back and fight again  in Ukraine
- 150th Motor Rifle Brigade - 70-80 percent of personnel refused to sign new contracts, quit the service
- Unknown brigade, training in Rostov region - 50 soldiers deserted over the course of a week, after learning their unit would be deployed to Ukraine.

Originally Posted By mbinky:
Besides some ATGM's, what exactly has Germany give to Ukraine that has exhausted their supplies?

https://i.postimg.cc/8PJ0zx7g/Screen-Shot-2022-04-19-at-5-54-22-PM.png

Originally Posted By car_wash_guy:
I know this is the war thread, but I haven't read anything about the "devastating" sanctions imposed on Russia and what their economy and common life is like right now over there?  I'd guess that maybe it needs another 1-2 months of marinating to fully destroy their economy but who knows?  I know they were sitting on a ton of gold in preparation for a situation like this

Originally Posted By Samal:

Shit.  that brand new cemetery section alone has 600-800 fresh graves already!  and this is just one local cemetery in the big country...I hate to say it, but that looks like more than declared 3.5K KIA from UA side :(

Originally Posted By realwar:


Ukrainian's blew themselves up on an anti-personnel mine

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EK8-n9Y9smQ

Originally Posted By outofbattery:



 1100 more from us that got down 2 days ago,sourced,produced and shipped entirely as private donations. The guy who drove them down was in a 40km long queue of trucks at the Polish-Ukrainian border.
 


https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/56204/8ECE070F-11D0-4C12-8688-C784164A19D9_jpe-2355524.JPG.  

https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/56204/EB8C71F2-024B-404C-A2F1-643522EA7ED2_jpe-2355523.JPG

Originally Posted By realwar:
Report from Kharkov region

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YsGGijw8slg


Ukrainian military going by rail in a freight car

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yvOILN4YVXM


Ukrainian Mi-24 helicopter flies somewhere in Ukraine

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V2QmauthM5g

Chechen fighter taking guns & ammo from the dead.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LlYAZmlyM5g



Ukrainian's blew themselves up on an anti-personnel mine

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EK8-n9Y9smQ