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Posted: 10/29/2019 2:01:58 PM EDT
[#1]
Randomly pick one because the world will be over if it is ever used.
It really doesn’t matter |
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Posted: 10/29/2019 2:04:25 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Randomly pick one because the world will be over if it is ever used. It really doesn’t matter |
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Posted: 10/29/2019 2:05:36 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Well you blew the first post. That's not true. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Randomly pick one because the world will be over if it is ever used. It really doesn’t matter 
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Posted: 10/29/2019 2:05:49 PM EDT
[#4]
Run exercises of various scenarios.
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Posted: 10/29/2019 2:11:52 PM EDT
[#5]
Quoted:
So the football has several different options for launching an attack. How the heck do you make a decision that important in what I'm sure would be a very small time frame? Do the responses utilize subs or ICBMs? If both are available, which gets picked? Any good books on how our nukes are setup for either a first strike or a counter? |
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Posted: 10/29/2019 2:16:47 PM EDT
[#6]
Quoted:
So the football has several different options for launching an attack. How the heck do you make a decision that important in what I'm sure would be a very small time frame? Do the responses utilize subs or ICBMs? If both are available, which gets picked? Any good books on how our nukes are setup for either a first strike or a counter? |
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Posted: 10/29/2019 2:17:30 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I know almost nothing about the subject, but didn't it become evident more than 20 years ago (for example, certainly by the time that Bill Clinton effectively gave away precision ballistic missile launch and aiming technology to China in 1998), that with increased precision of aiming, along with MIRV technology, that ICBMs either had become or would soon become "use it or lose it" assets, because they would likely be destroyed in their silos by a massive precision attack, whereas the stealth of SLBMs would protect them from a first strike, and would be available for follow-on strikes as necessary? Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
So the football has several different options for launching an attack. How the heck do you make a decision that important in what I'm sure would be a very small time frame? Do the responses utilize subs or ICBMs? If both are available, which gets picked? Any good books on how our nukes are setup for either a first strike or a counter? |
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Posted: 10/29/2019 7:24:07 PM EDT
[#8]
To hit our silos first in large scale, I'd think at any rate we would be able to intercept some of the inbounds or launch before impact. Takes a bit for them to reach the center CONUS.
ICBMs are more of a deadman switch or to hit a country that doesnt have the capes to stop one. Subs are the real first strike. Time to impact would be fast. I still wouldnt discount an aircraft overhead to deliver em the old fashion way. I just want to carry the football. |
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Posted: 10/29/2019 7:26:50 PM EDT
[#9]
If you worked in the top of the program - you would understand that the question is not one of gaming. Its all much simpler than you imagine.
<---- Worked the WH side of the program. |
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Posted: 10/29/2019 7:28:28 PM EDT
[#10]
My HS library actually used to have a book called "Strategic Nuclear Targeting"
It was a pretty interesting read. 
Would recommend it to OP. |
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Posted: 10/29/2019 7:28:59 PM EDT
[#11]
How about a nice game of chess...
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Posted: 10/29/2019 7:29:02 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
To hit our silos first in large scale, I'd think at any rate we would be able to intercept some of the inbounds or launch before impact. Takes a bit for them to reach the center CONUS. ICBMs are more of a deadman switch or to hit a country that doesnt have the capes to stop one. Subs are the real first strike. Time to impact would be fast. I still wouldnt discount an aircraft overhead to deliver em the old fashion way. You are almost completely incorrect. I just want to carry the football. Why? Its not a glamour duty. |
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Posted: 10/29/2019 7:30:06 PM EDT
[#13]
There's a 98% chance that the President will choose the WOPR solution.
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Posted: 10/29/2019 7:31:03 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
If you worked in the top of the program - you would understand that the question is not one of gaming. Its all much simpler than you imagine. <---- Worked the WH side of the program. game theory is a mathematical approach to decision-making. along with the prisoners' dilemma, one of the most basic games in game theory is chicken. |
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Posted: 10/29/2019 7:33:23 PM EDT
[#15]
I remember that Sleepy Joe lost his launch codes for about a week. Biden is Worse than Useless.
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Posted: 10/29/2019 7:36:08 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted: game theory != gaming. game theory is a mathematical approach to decision-making. along with the prisoners' dilemma, one of the most basic games in game theory is chicken. Not so in the real world. |
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Posted: 10/29/2019 7:36:15 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
If you worked in the top of the program - you would understand that the question is not one of gaming. Its all much simpler than you imagine. <---- Worked the WH side of the program. |
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Posted: 10/29/2019 7:37:20 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
With games - you generally have time and (fairly) fully informed perspective and facts. Not so in the real world. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted: game theory != gaming. game theory is a mathematical approach to decision-making. along with the prisoners' dilemma, one of the most basic games in game theory is chicken. Not so in the real world. Not a lot of time for a decision. |
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Posted: 10/29/2019 7:38:59 PM EDT
[#19]
COTTONMOUTH
TRINITY JERICHO |
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Posted: 10/29/2019 7:39:22 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Can you speak in broad generalities to it? Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
If you worked in the top of the program - you would understand that the question is not one of gaming. Its all much simpler than you imagine. <---- Worked the WH side of the program. |
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Posted: 10/29/2019 7:40:08 PM EDT
[#21]
There are pre planned strikes depending on the situation.
Nuclear Strategy and Targeting Doctrine PDF |
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Posted: 10/29/2019 7:41:03 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I know almost nothing about the subject, but didn't it become evident more than 20 years ago (for example, certainly by the time that Bill Clinton effectively gave away precision ballistic missile launch and aiming technology to China in 1998), that with increased precision of aiming, along with MIRV technology, that ICBMs either had become or would soon become "use it or lose it" assets, because they would likely be destroyed in their silos by a massive precision attack, whereas the stealth of SLBMs would protect them from a first strike, and would be available for follow-on strikes as necessary? Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
So the football has several different options for launching an attack. How the heck do you make a decision that important in what I'm sure would be a very small time frame? Do the responses utilize subs or ICBMs? If both are available, which gets picked? Any good books on how our nukes are setup for either a first strike or a counter? He sold it to them in exchange for campaign donations. |
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Posted: 10/29/2019 7:41:34 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
There are pre planned strikes depending on the situation. |
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Posted: 10/29/2019 7:42:18 PM EDT
[#24]
 Turn your key, sir! |
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Posted: 10/29/2019 7:42:51 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
There is really no reason to do so. Its a credible deterrent that works, can work and will work. Much is done to ensure that. Quote HistoryQuoted:
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If you worked in the top of the program - you would understand that the question is not one of gaming. Its all much simpler than you imagine. <---- Worked the WH side of the program. I'm less curious about the day to day, but the ideas of what to do when it's time. Broad theories. |
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Posted: 10/29/2019 7:44:40 PM EDT
[#26]
SKY KING SKY KING DO NOT ANSWER
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Posted: 10/29/2019 7:44:44 PM EDT
[#27]
I'm just here to read comments and hopefully learn recipes.
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Posted: 10/29/2019 7:47:32 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I'm just here to read comments and hopefully learn recipes. Even general theories no country officially adopts |
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Posted: 10/29/2019 7:50:05 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Okay, I respect where you're coming from. I get it. I'm less curious about the day to day, but the ideas of what to do when it's time. Broad theories. Annnnnnnd go! |
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Posted: 10/29/2019 7:57:37 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
If you consider what is going on in any named scenario where this would apply - its not as if its a broad, 5-page menu of good possibilities. Its about to become the worst day imaginable. Its wide open, time-pressured and imperfect. I'll give you 60 seconds to ask questions and to make up your mind. Some of my responses may be partial, "I don't know" or reflect some conflicting information. Annnnnnnd go! Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Okay, I respect where you're coming from. I get it. I'm less curious about the day to day, but the ideas of what to do when it's time. Broad theories. Annnnnnnd go! Moderate response or nuke the shit out of everything? That's really all I'm curious about |
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Posted: 10/29/2019 8:00:03 PM EDT
[#31]
The various scenarios get rehearsed/updated quite often as we've had ~70 years of time to think of what-ifs. President will be given a quick update on the whatfor and presented with a few options ranging from nothing to mad max. He gets to make that decision based on whatever limited data is available at the time
That said, there's been quite a few close calls through those years that we know about (and likely more that's classified). IIRC there was one in the 80s, during Reforger?, that had the only thing standinh between a nuclear exchange was a Russian willing to disobey standing orders. A malfunction in some system indicated a first strike inbound |
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Posted: 10/29/2019 8:03:50 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
ICBM or SLBM? Moderate response or nuke the shit out of everything? That's really all I'm curious about Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Okay, I respect where you're coming from. I get it. I'm less curious about the day to day, but the ideas of what to do when it's time. Broad theories. Annnnnnnd go! Moderate response or nuke the shit out of everything? That's really all I'm curious about To the second - leaders take the long view. There is (notionally) a downside to any and all significant actions. Its just one planet. |
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Posted: 10/29/2019 8:05:20 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
ICBM or SLBM? Moderate response or nuke the shit out of everything? That's really all I'm curious about Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Okay, I respect where you're coming from. I get it. I'm less curious about the day to day, but the ideas of what to do when it's time. Broad theories. Annnnnnnd go! Moderate response or nuke the shit out of everything? That's really all I'm curious about |
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Posted: 10/29/2019 8:06:12 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
The various scenarios get rehearsed/updated quite often as we've had ~70 years of time to think of what-ifs. President will be given a quick update on the whatfor and presented with a few options ranging from nothing to mad max. He gets to make that decision based on whatever limited data is available at the time That said, there's been quite a few close calls through those years that we know about (and likely more that's classified). IIRC there was one in the 80s, during Reforger?, that had the only thing standinh between a nuclear exchange was a Russian willing to disobey standing orders. A malfunction in some system indicated a first strike inbound |
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Posted: 10/29/2019 8:07:18 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
The various scenarios get rehearsed/updated quite often as we've had ~70 years of time to think of what-ifs. President will be given a quick update on the whatfor and presented with a few options ranging from nothing to mad max. He gets to make that decision based on whatever limited data is available at the time That said, there's been quite a few close calls through those years that we know about (and likely more that's classified). IIRC there was one in the 80s, during Reforger?, that had the only thing standinh between a nuclear exchange was a Russian willing to disobey standing orders. A malfunction in some system indicated a first strike inbound |
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Posted: 10/29/2019 8:07:34 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Leaders set goals. Less so methods. To the second - leaders take the long view. There is (notionally) a downside to any and all significant actions. Its just one planet. |
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Posted: 10/29/2019 8:07:53 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Odds are, the president is about to be ash, so he pretty much has to turn it over to one of those AACP flights. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Okay, I respect where you're coming from. I get it. I'm less curious about the day to day, but the ideas of what to do when it's time. Broad theories. Annnnnnnd go! Moderate response or nuke the shit out of everything? That's really all I'm curious about |
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Posted: 10/29/2019 8:08:20 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Odds are, the president is about to be ash, so he pretty much has to turn it over to one of those AACP flights. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Okay, I respect where you're coming from. I get it. I'm less curious about the day to day, but the ideas of what to do when it's time. Broad theories. Annnnnnnd go! Moderate response or nuke the shit out of everything? That's really all I'm curious about |
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Posted: 10/29/2019 8:12:17 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
September, 1983. Russian system problem. There was no Reforger connection that I'm aware of. |
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Posted: 10/29/2019 8:13:39 PM EDT
[#40]
Think the coolest thing about silos is that they are far enough from one another to require a nuk each to destroy, but close enough that the blast from one might take out other incoming, forcing the opponent to either be extremely timely, or wait between hits for the dust to clear.
Dont know if this is true. |
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Posted: 10/29/2019 8:14:32 PM EDT
[#41]
Dont know if this is any good but looks interesting:
Eric Schlosser Command and Control: Nuclear Weapons, the Damascus Accident, and the Illusion of Safety ...that has existed since the dawn of the nuclear age: How do you deploy weapons of mass destruction without being destroyed by them? That question has never been resolved—and Schlosser reveals how the combination of human fallibility and technological complexity still poses a grave risk to mankind. While the harms of global warming increasingly dominate the news, the equally dangerous yet more immediate threat of nuclear weapons has been largely forgotten. |
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Posted: 10/29/2019 8:15:07 PM EDT
[#42]
Rubble, gravel, or dust.
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Posted: 10/29/2019 8:15:29 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Think the coolest thing about silos is that they are far enough from one another to require a nuk each to destroy, but close enough that the blast from one might take out other incoming, forcing the opponent to either be extremely timely, or wait between hits for the dust to clear. Dont know if this is true. 
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Posted: 10/29/2019 8:18:20 PM EDT
[#44]
WOPR has to learn
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Posted: 10/29/2019 8:18:42 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
September, 1983. Russian system problem. There was no Reforger connection that I'm aware of. |
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Posted: 10/29/2019 8:20:09 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Yep, thats the one. Thanks! I'm positive I remember reading that Reforger had some influence on the politics of the event...just raised tensions/concerns/higher threat levels or something along those lines, but couldn't remember offhand if we were in the middle of it. Quote HistoryQuoted:
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September, 1983. Russian system problem. There was no Reforger connection that I'm aware of. Reforger is something the Sovs set their watches by. No drama. Plenty of snoop bait for the SMLM guys. Sovs didn't get worked up by them. The scenarios were repetitive. |
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Posted: 10/29/2019 8:20:10 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
THAT'S the type of cool shit I'm curious about. Quote HistoryQuoted:
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Think the coolest thing about silos is that they are far enough from one another to require a nuk each to destroy, but close enough that the blast from one might take out other incoming, forcing the opponent to either be extremely timely, or wait between hits for the dust to clear. Dont know if this is true. |
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Posted: 10/29/2019 8:23:19 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I've never heard of or known anyone to believe in such a "turn it over" approach. Even in the most difficult time crunch. Quote HistoryQuoted:
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Okay, I respect where you're coming from. I get it. I'm less curious about the day to day, but the ideas of what to do when it's time. Broad theories. Annnnnnnd go! Moderate response or nuke the shit out of everything? That's really all I'm curious about With warning and confirmation, 10 minutes. Max. Use it or lose it. |
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Posted: 10/29/2019 8:24:53 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I'm fascinated by this kinda stuff too. I really want to make it to the tourable silos eventually. Quote HistoryQuoted:
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Think the coolest thing about silos is that they are far enough from one another to require a nuk each to destroy, but close enough that the blast from one might take out other incoming, forcing the opponent to either be extremely timely, or wait between hits for the dust to clear. Dont know if this is true. I think NK might have launched on HI and that "mistake" wasn't one, but our countermeasures worked correctly. |
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Posted: 10/29/2019 8:26:11 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Multiple SLBM warheads are inbound to DC. With warning and confirmation, 10 minutes. Max. Use it or lose it. 
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