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Posted: 5/31/2022 10:10:46 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By wookie1562: How did the powers avoid a reversion to the mean? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By wookie1562: Originally Posted By FALARAK: Even in 2008 there was no reversion to the mean. That's not a realistic nor relevant thing. The Fed bought the worthless mortgages (MBS) and held them on their balance sheet until this day. Either they sell them and prices come down hard, or let them mature, effectively transferring the loss to everyone via inflation (monetizing debt). |
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Posted: 5/31/2022 10:12:29 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By exponentialpi: QT starts tomorrow.
  
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Posted: 5/31/2022 11:54:14 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Gatorcountry]
[#3]
I've got my SPY chart going back to 2009 ready to go - this ain't the first go around with QT but I'm expecting this to be one heck of a ride. Can't wait for the market to open in the morning - just got to love this volatility and range in the market
 The channel is suggesting 15% down - reversion is about to become a real thing for SPY. Amazing how the top of the channel runs right into my bottom long term support line (are we about to see support become resistance - could it be happening  ) Please don't take any of this as financial advice - but I'm about to have some serious fun with options  Dang had to edit - just noticed this channel has been running strong for 13 years (some might just call this a trend). |
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Posted: 6/1/2022 12:09:00 AM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By exponentialpi: Quantitative Tightening. Instead of the Fed buying assets, it will start offloading them. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/200878/D8343D9C-C504-4090-B942-508BDF25B829_jpe-2403704.JPG Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By exponentialpi: Originally Posted By laxman09: What does QT mean? What should one look to see happening? Quantitative Tightening. Instead of the Fed buying assets, it will start offloading them. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/200878/D8343D9C-C504-4090-B942-508BDF25B829_jpe-2403704.JPG To who tho? 
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Posted: 6/1/2022 12:10:48 AM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Gatorcountry: I've got my SPY chart going back to 2009 ready to go - this ain't the first go around with QT but I'm expecting this to be one heck of a ride. Can't wait for the market to open in the morning - just got to love this volatility and range in the market The channel is suggesting 15% down - reversion is about to become a real thing for SPY. Amazing how the top of the channel runs right into my bottom long term support line (are we about to see support become resistance - could it be happening ) Please don't take any of this as financial advice - but I'm about to have some serious fun with options Dang had to edit - just noticed this channel has been running strong for 13 years (some might just call this a trend).https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/88037/Capture_JPG-2403832.jpg I might have to move some funds into my taxable account. Looks like volatility is in deck again. |
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USA
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Posted: 6/1/2022 12:11:09 AM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By VooDoo3dfx: To who tho? At the right discount someone will take them. A 3% $100,000 mortgage note sounds like a bad deal unless someone sells it to you for $50,000... then it's a pretty good deal. |
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Posted: 6/1/2022 12:11:49 AM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Gatorcountry: I've got my SPY chart going back to 2009 ready to go - this ain't the first go around with QT but I'm expecting this to be one heck of a ride. Can't wait for the market to open in the morning - just got to love this volatility and range in the market The channel is suggesting 15% down - reversion is about to become a real thing for SPY. Amazing how the top of the channel runs right into my bottom long term support line (are we about to see support become resistance - could it be happening ) Please don't take any of this as financial advice - but I'm about to have some serious fun with options Dang had to edit - just noticed this channel has been running strong for 13 years (some might just call this a trend).https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/88037/Capture_JPG-2403832.jpg Them selling QT has been known for a bit. Are they shocked by this to sell? |
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Posted: 6/1/2022 12:14:07 AM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By HIMARS13A: At the right discount someone will take them. A 3% $100,000 mortgage note sounds like a bad deal unless someone sells it to you for $50,000... then it's a pretty good deal. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By HIMARS13A: Originally Posted By VooDoo3dfx: To who tho? At the right discount someone will take them. A 3% $100,000 mortgage note sounds like a bad deal unless someone sells it to you for $50,000... then it's a pretty good deal.  Margin Call (2011) - Fire Sale of Mortgage Bonds (Wall Street Investment Bank Trading) [HD 1080p] |
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Posted: 6/1/2022 1:12:10 AM EDT
[Last Edit: HDGator]
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By VooDoo3dfx: Them selling QT has been known for a bit. Are they shocked by this to sell? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By VooDoo3dfx: Originally Posted By Gatorcountry: I've got my SPY chart going back to 2009 ready to go - this ain't the first go around with QT but I'm expecting this to be one heck of a ride. Can't wait for the market to open in the morning - just got to love this volatility and range in the market The channel is suggesting 15% down - reversion is about to become a real thing for SPY. Amazing how the top of the channel runs right into my bottom long term support line (are we about to see support become resistance - could it be happening ) Please don't take any of this as financial advice - but I'm about to have some serious fun with options Dang had to edit - just noticed this channel has been running strong for 13 years (some might just call this a trend).https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/88037/Capture_JPG-2403832.jpg Them selling QT has been known for a bit. Are they shocked by this to sell? I'll give my opinion. The Fed tries to set expectations and achieve results in several different ways. They first try to change expectations and affect monetary issues with what they say they will do, secondly they start to do something while continuing to threaten further action, thirdly they actually follow through to some level then back off and adjust their future jawboning. Their largest problems right now are inflation and their balance sheet since they can only have a real, primary effect on monetary issues. They began to raise interest rates while saying they were committed to continue the course. At the same time, they said they would reduce their balance sheet (QT-Quantitative Tightening). In simple terms QT means they will take bonds (Treasuries and MBS) that they bought with money printed out of thin air and sell them back into the market in order to re-absorb that printed money and avoid inflationary effects. There has been a lot of sidebar discussions in the all roses and sunshine financial media that given the downturn in the market, concerns about recession, and supply chain issues that they would start easing on future rate increases and QT. But they've stayed the course and are headed towards 0.5% rate increases in each of the next two months along with starting QT on June 1. When it comes to QT, I don't think there's any way on God's green earth that they will be able to remove over $7 trillion off their balance sheet in the next year and a half while simultaneously pulling over $7 trillion out of circulation worldwide. But they're still projecting to the public that they will which is incredibly deflationary on asset and bond prices. We'll see how this crazy train works out; but we're in completely uncharted waters. They've never tried anything like this before. Those equipped to earn off of volatility may be the winners while literally everyone else loses in whatever bucket they put their money. I don't have the answers and can only comment on what I see. |
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Posted: 6/1/2022 1:50:43 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Gatorcountry]
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By HDGator: I'll give my opinion. The Fed tries to set expectations and achieve results in several different ways. They first try to change expectations and affect monetary issues with what they say they will do, secondly they start to do something while continuing to threaten further action, thirdly they actually follow through to some level then back off and adjust their future jawboning. Their largest problems right now are inflation and their balance sheet since they can only have a real, primary effect on monetary issues. They began to raise interest rates while saying they were committed to continue the course. At the same time, they said they would reduce their balance sheet (QT-Quantitative Tightening). In simple terms QT means they will take bonds (Treasuries and MBS) that they bought with money printed out of thin air and sell them back into the market in order to re-absorb that printed money and avoid inflationary effects. There has been a lot of sidebar discussions in the all roses and sunshine financial media that given the downturn in the market, concerns about recession, and supply chain issues that they would start easing on future rate increases and QT. But they've stayed the course and are headed towards 0.5% rate increases in each of the next two months along with starting QT on June 1. When it comes to QT, I don't think there's any way on God's green earth that they will be able to remove over $7 trillion off their balance sheet in the next year and a half while simultaneously pulling over $7 trillion out of circulation worldwide. But they're still projecting to the public that they will which is incredibly deflationary on asset and bond prices. We'll see how this crazy train works out; but we're in completely uncharted waters. They've never tried anything like this before. Those equipped to earn off of volatility may be the winners while literally everyone else loses in whatever bucket they put their money. I don't have the answers and can only comment on what I see. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By HDGator: Originally Posted By VooDoo3dfx: Originally Posted By Gatorcountry: I've got my SPY chart going back to 2009 ready to go - this ain't the first go around with QT but I'm expecting this to be one heck of a ride. Can't wait for the market to open in the morning - just got to love this volatility and range in the market The channel is suggesting 15% down - reversion is about to become a real thing for SPY. Amazing how the top of the channel runs right into my bottom long term support line (are we about to see support become resistance - could it be happening ) Please don't take any of this as financial advice - but I'm about to have some serious fun with options Dang had to edit - just noticed this channel has been running strong for 13 years (some might just call this a trend).https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/88037/Capture_JPG-2403832.jpg Them selling QT has been known for a bit. Are they shocked by this to sell? I'll give my opinion. The Fed tries to set expectations and achieve results in several different ways. They first try to change expectations and affect monetary issues with what they say they will do, secondly they start to do something while continuing to threaten further action, thirdly they actually follow through to some level then back off and adjust their future jawboning. Their largest problems right now are inflation and their balance sheet since they can only have a real, primary effect on monetary issues. They began to raise interest rates while saying they were committed to continue the course. At the same time, they said they would reduce their balance sheet (QT-Quantitative Tightening). In simple terms QT means they will take bonds (Treasuries and MBS) that they bought with money printed out of thin air and sell them back into the market in order to re-absorb that printed money and avoid inflationary effects. There has been a lot of sidebar discussions in the all roses and sunshine financial media that given the downturn in the market, concerns about recession, and supply chain issues that they would start easing on future rate increases and QT. But they've stayed the course and are headed towards 0.5% rate increases in each of the next two months along with starting QT on June 1. When it comes to QT, I don't think there's any way on God's green earth that they will be able to remove over $7 trillion off their balance sheet in the next year and a half while simultaneously pulling over $7 trillion out of circulation worldwide. But they're still projecting to the public that they will which is incredibly deflationary on asset and bond prices. We'll see how this crazy train works out; but we're in completely uncharted waters. They've never tried anything like this before. Those equipped to earn off of volatility may be the winners while literally everyone else loses in whatever bucket they put their money. I don't have the answers and can only comment on what I see. The QT the Fed pulled in 2018-2019 didn't go well for the market (you can see on the chart we got about a 6% drop). That QT never exceed $50B per month, where as this time the Fed is talking up to $95B per month. Inflation was also much different last time as well (CPI of 8.5% vs 2.75%). Nothing like this has ever been tried before so no one is exactly sure what the impact is going to be. As HDGator said we can only go by what we see so I'll dig a little deeper into the TA I'm using. My confirmation on SPY is watching for an entry back into the channel. On the monthly chart I posted, you can see the last green candle wick right down to the yellow line (34 SMA), which is sitting on top of the channel. No surprise here as the 34 SMA has been riding the channel for a bit now. If and it's just an if for now, SPY loses the 34 SMA and drops into the channel we could see it hit the bottom line on the channel (about a 15% drop). Where things get dicey is if (another if) it loses that lower line on the channel (which is has done a few times since 2009). Next stop is that blue line on the chart which is the 89 SMA - this is a very strong long term support level. Now this would be a much larger drop but the chart shows it's possible. None of this will happen overnight - remember the chart I posted was a monthly chart going back 13 years. Going forward I'll be spending everyday playing the volatility game - the market should be providing a lot of intraday range. |
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Posted: 6/1/2022 2:56:24 AM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Lapidary: New page Just signed a purchase agreement. Owner had to come down over $100k. Looks like sales have been slowing in the rural midwest. Its just demand being pulled forward 
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HI, USA
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Posted: 6/1/2022 3:12:50 AM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By HDGator: I'll give my opinion. The Fed tries to set expectations and achieve results in several different ways. They first try to change expectations and affect monetary issues with what they say they will do, secondly they start to do something while continuing to threaten further action, thirdly they actually follow through to some level then back off and adjust their future jawboning. Their largest problems right now are inflation and their balance sheet since they can only have a real, primary effect on monetary issues. They began to raise interest rates while saying they were committed to continue the course. At the same time, they said they would reduce their balance sheet (QT-Quantitative Tightening). In simple terms QT means they will take bonds (Treasuries and MBS) that they bought with money printed out of thin air and sell them back into the market in order to re-absorb that printed money and avoid inflationary effects. There has been a lot of sidebar discussions in the all roses and sunshine financial media that given the downturn in the market, concerns about recession, and supply chain issues that they would start easing on future rate increases and QT. But they've stayed the course and are headed towards 0.5% rate increases in each of the next two months along with starting QT on June 1. When it comes to QT, I don't think there's any way on God's green earth that they will be able to remove over $7 trillion off their balance sheet in the next year and a half while simultaneously pulling over $7 trillion out of circulation worldwide. But they're still projecting to the public that they will which is incredibly deflationary on asset and bond prices. We'll see how this crazy train works out; but we're in completely uncharted waters. They've never tried anything like this before. Those equipped to earn off of volatility may be the winners while literally everyone else loses in whatever bucket they put their money. I don't have the answers and can only comment on what I see. I don't believe your view of QT is correct. They are going to let a portion of their holdings mature and not replace them, thereby reducing the balance sheet that way, and it will be implemented in stages, per Wolf Richter https://wolfstreet.com/2022/05/04/powell-confident-in-softish-landing-for-the-economy-but-we-may-keep-inflation-markets-can-figure-out-their-own-landing/ In effect, the Fed is slowly getting out of setting risk and letting the market (us) decide what things should sell for. This will definitely get interesting. Another data point from a relative today: a real estate agent in Ventura, CA he knows says business is down 80% and what few buyers left are putting only 3% down. This is on new homes, so there have to be incentives being handed out like crazy which undercuts buyers from 6 months ago. Stuff like this is why I keep cash in treasury only money markets - there has to be a ton of garbage, mbs, cmbs and abs (autos) stuffed into every bond and CD issued in the past 2-3 years. Pensions are probably loaded to the gills with this crap. It's why last year I took my pension in a lump sum and rolled it over into a self directed IRA. Assholes that run pension funds are the kind that decide to boycott oil when it's just starting to take off, buy RE at the top, and I've read some are even considering crypto, albeit a small allocation. I sleep a lot better having that money under my control
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Posted: 6/1/2022 3:44:29 AM EDT
[Last Edit: HDGator]
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Cataly5t: I don't believe your view of QT is correct. They are going to let a portion of their holdings mature and not replace them, thereby reducing the balance sheet that way, and it will be implemented in stages, per Wolf Richter https://wolfstreet.com/2022/05/04/powell-confident-in-softish-landing-for-the-economy-but-we-may-keep-inflation-markets-can-figure-out-their-own-landing/ In effect, the Fed is slowly getting out of setting risk and letting the market (us) decide what things should sell for. This will definitely get interesting. Another data point from a relative today: a real estate agent in Ventura, CA he knows says business is down 80% and what few buyers left are putting only 3% down. This is on new homes, so there have to be incentives being handed out like crazy which undercuts buyers from 6 months ago. Stuff like this is why I keep cash in treasury only money markets - there has to be a ton of garbage, mbs, cmbs and abs (autos) stuffed into every bond and CD issued in the past 2-3 years. Pensions are probably loaded to the gills with this crap. It's why last year I took my pension in a lump sum and rolled it over into a self directed IRA. Assholes that run pension funds are the kind that decide to boycott oil when it's just starting to take off, buy RE at the top, and I've read some are even considering crypto, albeit a small allocation. I sleep a lot better having that money under my control Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Cataly5t: Originally Posted By HDGator: I'll give my opinion. The Fed tries to set expectations and achieve results in several different ways. They first try to change expectations and affect monetary issues with what they say they will do, secondly they start to do something while continuing to threaten further action, thirdly they actually follow through to some level then back off and adjust their future jawboning. Their largest problems right now are inflation and their balance sheet since they can only have a real, primary effect on monetary issues. They began to raise interest rates while saying they were committed to continue the course. At the same time, they said they would reduce their balance sheet (QT-Quantitative Tightening). In simple terms QT means they will take bonds (Treasuries and MBS) that they bought with money printed out of thin air and sell them back into the market in order to re-absorb that printed money and avoid inflationary effects. There has been a lot of sidebar discussions in the all roses and sunshine financial media that given the downturn in the market, concerns about recession, and supply chain issues that they would start easing on future rate increases and QT. But they've stayed the course and are headed towards 0.5% rate increases in each of the next two months along with starting QT on June 1. When it comes to QT, I don't think there's any way on God's green earth that they will be able to remove over $7 trillion off their balance sheet in the next year and a half while simultaneously pulling over $7 trillion out of circulation worldwide. But they're still projecting to the public that they will which is incredibly deflationary on asset and bond prices. We'll see how this crazy train works out; but we're in completely uncharted waters. They've never tried anything like this before. Those equipped to earn off of volatility may be the winners while literally everyone else loses in whatever bucket they put their money. I don't have the answers and can only comment on what I see. I don't believe your view of QT is correct. They are going to let a portion of their holdings mature and not replace them, thereby reducing the balance sheet that way, and it will be implemented in stages, per Wolf Richter https://wolfstreet.com/2022/05/04/powell-confident-in-softish-landing-for-the-economy-but-we-may-keep-inflation-markets-can-figure-out-their-own-landing/ In effect, the Fed is slowly getting out of setting risk and letting the market (us) decide what things should sell for. This will definitely get interesting. Another data point from a relative today: a real estate agent in Ventura, CA he knows says business is down 80% and what few buyers left are putting only 3% down. This is on new homes, so there have to be incentives being handed out like crazy which undercuts buyers from 6 months ago. Stuff like this is why I keep cash in treasury only money markets - there has to be a ton of garbage, mbs, cmbs and abs (autos) stuffed into every bond and CD issued in the past 2-3 years. Pensions are probably loaded to the gills with this crap. It's why last year I took my pension in a lump sum and rolled it over into a self directed IRA. Assholes that run pension funds are the kind that decide to boycott oil when it's just starting to take off, buy RE at the top, and I've read some are even considering crypto, albeit a small allocation. I sleep a lot better having that money under my control Thank you. I agree with your observations. When you look at QT, it's difficult to explain in one or two sentences that are digestible on arfcom. The Fed is definitely hoping to unwind a big chunk of their balance sheet by holding to maturity and subsequently not repurchasing the assets on the open market. They hold T-Bills that may have as short as a 4 week maturity all the way up to Treasury Bonds that can have 30 year maturities. I don't have any info on the maturity distribution they're holding; but it's probably out there. My understanding is that they have been focusing on holding shorter durations and I could be wrong. Anything they hold that matures in the next 18 months, they could collect the payout in $ from the US Treasury and mark it off the books essentially eliminating that currency from circulation into thin air. The US Government however is operating at a huge deficit now and there's no plans to reverse course anytime soon. That means that short term Treasuries that are paid out to the Fed (which disappear into thin air) now need to be re-auctioned in the short term market to support the US Gov's expenditures. The big difference is that the Fed (with its bottomless pit of printable wealth) is no longer a bidder on those Treasuries. That creates falling bond prices and its conjugate rising interest rates. So the lack of participation of the Fed in bidding for the re-auctioning of short term US debt will lower the sale price of the debt and increase interest rates. The Fed didn't directly sell into the market; but the net result is the same as long as the the US Gov doesn't reduce its budget deficit or even try to reduce debt. |
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Posted: 6/1/2022 3:53:58 AM EDT
[Last Edit: HDGator]
[#14]
double tap
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USA
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Posted: 6/1/2022 4:40:23 AM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By HDGator: Thank you. I agree with your observations. When you look at QT, it's difficult to explain in one or two sentences that are digestible on arfcom. The Fed is definitely hoping to unwind a big chunk of their balance sheet by holding to maturity and subsequently not repurchasing the assets on the open market. They hold T-Bills that may have as short as a 4 week maturity all the way up to Treasury Bonds that can have 30 year maturities. I don't have any info on the maturity distribution they're holding; but it's probably out there. My understanding is that they have been focusing on holding shorter durations and I could be wrong. Anything they hold that matures in the next 18 months, they could collect the payout in $ from the US Treasury and mark it off the books essentially eliminating that currency from circulation into thin air. The US Government however is operating at a huge deficit now and there's no plans to reverse course anytime soon. That means that short term Treasuries that are paid out to the Fed (which disappear into thin air) now need to be re-auctioned in the short term market to support the US Gov's expenditures. The big difference is that the Fed (with its bottomless pit of printable wealth) is no longer a bidder on those Treasuries. That creates falling bond prices and its conjugate rising interest rates. So the lack of participation of the Fed in bidding for the re-auctioning of short term US debt will lower the sale price of the debt and increase interest rates. The Fed didn't directly sell into the market; but the net result is the same as long as the the US Gov doesn't reduce its budget deficit or even try to reduce debt. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By HDGator: Originally Posted By Cataly5t: Originally Posted By HDGator: I'll give my opinion. The Fed tries to set expectations and achieve results in several different ways. They first try to change expectations and affect monetary issues with what they say they will do, secondly they start to do something while continuing to threaten further action, thirdly they actually follow through to some level then back off and adjust their future jawboning. Their largest problems right now are inflation and their balance sheet since they can only have a real, primary effect on monetary issues. They began to raise interest rates while saying they were committed to continue the course. At the same time, they said they would reduce their balance sheet (QT-Quantitative Tightening). In simple terms QT means they will take bonds (Treasuries and MBS) that they bought with money printed out of thin air and sell them back into the market in order to re-absorb that printed money and avoid inflationary effects. There has been a lot of sidebar discussions in the all roses and sunshine financial media that given the downturn in the market, concerns about recession, and supply chain issues that they would start easing on future rate increases and QT. But they've stayed the course and are headed towards 0.5% rate increases in each of the next two months along with starting QT on June 1. When it comes to QT, I don't think there's any way on God's green earth that they will be able to remove over $7 trillion off their balance sheet in the next year and a half while simultaneously pulling over $7 trillion out of circulation worldwide. But they're still projecting to the public that they will which is incredibly deflationary on asset and bond prices. We'll see how this crazy train works out; but we're in completely uncharted waters. They've never tried anything like this before. Those equipped to earn off of volatility may be the winners while literally everyone else loses in whatever bucket they put their money. I don't have the answers and can only comment on what I see. I don't believe your view of QT is correct. They are going to let a portion of their holdings mature and not replace them, thereby reducing the balance sheet that way, and it will be implemented in stages, per Wolf Richter https://wolfstreet.com/2022/05/04/powell-confident-in-softish-landing-for-the-economy-but-we-may-keep-inflation-markets-can-figure-out-their-own-landing/ In effect, the Fed is slowly getting out of setting risk and letting the market (us) decide what things should sell for. This will definitely get interesting. Another data point from a relative today: a real estate agent in Ventura, CA he knows says business is down 80% and what few buyers left are putting only 3% down. This is on new homes, so there have to be incentives being handed out like crazy which undercuts buyers from 6 months ago. Stuff like this is why I keep cash in treasury only money markets - there has to be a ton of garbage, mbs, cmbs and abs (autos) stuffed into every bond and CD issued in the past 2-3 years. Pensions are probably loaded to the gills with this crap. It's why last year I took my pension in a lump sum and rolled it over into a self directed IRA. Assholes that run pension funds are the kind that decide to boycott oil when it's just starting to take off, buy RE at the top, and I've read some are even considering crypto, albeit a small allocation. I sleep a lot better having that money under my control Thank you. I agree with your observations. When you look at QT, it's difficult to explain in one or two sentences that are digestible on arfcom. The Fed is definitely hoping to unwind a big chunk of their balance sheet by holding to maturity and subsequently not repurchasing the assets on the open market. They hold T-Bills that may have as short as a 4 week maturity all the way up to Treasury Bonds that can have 30 year maturities. I don't have any info on the maturity distribution they're holding; but it's probably out there. My understanding is that they have been focusing on holding shorter durations and I could be wrong. Anything they hold that matures in the next 18 months, they could collect the payout in $ from the US Treasury and mark it off the books essentially eliminating that currency from circulation into thin air. The US Government however is operating at a huge deficit now and there's no plans to reverse course anytime soon. That means that short term Treasuries that are paid out to the Fed (which disappear into thin air) now need to be re-auctioned in the short term market to support the US Gov's expenditures. The big difference is that the Fed (with its bottomless pit of printable wealth) is no longer a bidder on those Treasuries. That creates falling bond prices and its conjugate rising interest rates. So the lack of participation of the Fed in bidding for the re-auctioning of short term US debt will lower the sale price of the debt and increase interest rates. The Fed didn't directly sell into the market; but the net result is the same as long as the the US Gov doesn't reduce its budget deficit or even try to reduce debt. You’re very good at explaining this stuff. A lot of it is counter intuitive, even to those of us who put forth the effort to understand. Please keep it up. |
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Posted: 6/1/2022 7:10:15 AM EDT
[#16]
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Posted: 6/1/2022 8:47:29 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Gatorcountry]
[#17]
Here's some more food for thought - myself and a lot of other analysts are closely watching the price of oil. On the chart once again we see some strong trends going back to 2008. On the support side, the nominal price of oil has had strong support at $32.42. In fact, price has only opened and closed below this support once in 14 years. Now we are pushing up towards the 2008 all time nominal high of $147.18. The 2022 inflation adjusted all time high is $165.98. Using these numbers I ran a Fib retrace from the adjusted all time high down to the nominal low (a bit wonky but the nominal low has such small drift it won't change much).
Here are the number to watch over the next few months - For the first time since 2008, oil closed above the 61.8% retrace of $114.96 breaching this level of resistance. This morning we are at $116.61. Next price level to watch for is the 78.6% retrace at $137.40. If it tests and rolls over the 78.6% retrace then watch out for $147.18 which completes the retrace and puts it back to the 2008 nominal high. This is a strong physiological resistance level and it's the one most are watching for. Depending on how the markets react to QT, what the summer storm season brings, continuing geopolitical instability and whatever new green policy the government decides to try price may very well try to test the inflation adjusted all time high.  |
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Posted: 6/1/2022 9:38:20 AM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Gatorcountry: Here's some more food for thought - myself and a lot of other analysts are closely watching the price of oil. On the chart once again we see some strong trends going back to 2008. On the support side, the nominal price of oil has had strong support at $32.42. In fact, price has only opened and closed below this support once in 14 years. Now we are pushing up towards the 2008 all time nominal high of $147.18. The 2022 inflation adjusted all time high is $165.98. Using these numbers I ran a Fib retrace from the adjusted all time high down to the nominal low (a bit wonky but the nominal low has such small drift it won't change much). Here are the number to watch over the next few months - For the first time since 2008, oil closed above the 61.8% retrace of $114.96 breaching this level of resistance. This morning we are at $116.61. Next price level to watch for is the 78.6% retrace at $137.40. If it tests and rolls over the 78.6% retrace then watch out for $147.18 which completes the retrace and puts it back to the 2008 nominal high. This is a strong physiological resistance level and it's the one most are watching for. Depending on how the markets react to QT, what the summer storm season brings, continuing geopolitical instability and whatever new green policy the government decides to try price may very well try to test the inflation adjusted all time high. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/88037/Capture_JPG-2403994.jpg So whats the outcome here if we break through that $147 per barrel? |
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NY, USA
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Posted: 6/1/2022 9:52:04 AM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By exponentialpi: 
Not trying to be mean/rude. Is she fucking retarded? |
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Posted: 6/1/2022 11:11:21 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Gatorcountry]
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 2tired2run: So whats the outcome here if we break through that $147 per barrel? The other large factor worrying Dimon is the Ukraine war and its impact on commodities, including food and fuel. Oil "almost has to go up in price" because of disruptions caused by the worst European conflict since World War II, potentially hitting $150 or $175 a barrel, Dimon said. Jamie Dimon says 'brace yourself' for an economic hurricane caused by the Fed and Ukraine war In my chart I have an inflation adjusted high of $165.98 as the next level of resistance if there is a break through of $147 - which puts me right in the middle of his estimate. Notice he mentioned two factors I brought up - the Fed and geopolitical instability. But he didn't mention anything about the governments whacked green policies towards oil and gas. Guess he wants to keep that ESG rating up there with the big boys. |
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Posted: 6/1/2022 11:32:45 AM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Tbone-1: Not trying to be mean/rude. Is she fucking retarded? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Tbone-1: Originally Posted By exponentialpi:
Not trying to be mean/rude. Is she fucking retarded? Nope. Just a Keynesian. |
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RI, USA
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Posted: 6/1/2022 12:00:10 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GETBACKINTHEKITCHEN: Nope. Just a Keynesian. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GETBACKINTHEKITCHEN: Originally Posted By Tbone-1: Originally Posted By exponentialpi:
Not trying to be mean/rude. Is she fucking retarded? Nope. Just a Keynesian.
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Posted: 6/1/2022 12:58:04 PM EDT
[Last Edit: 2tired2run]
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Gatorcountry: According to Jamie Dimon CEO of JPMorgan Chase - ...Snip.... Notice he mentioned two factors I brought up - the Fed and geopolitical instability. But he didn't mention anything about the governments whacked green policies towards oil and gas. Guess he wants to keep that ESG rating up there with the big boys. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Gatorcountry: Originally Posted By 2tired2run: So whats the outcome here if we break through that $147 per barrel? ...Snip.... Notice he mentioned two factors I brought up - the Fed and geopolitical instability. But he didn't mention anything about the governments whacked green policies towards oil and gas. Guess he wants to keep that ESG rating up there with the big boys. It's not just concern of an image problem, many of these big banks/hedge funds have big bets on the new green economy. Unfortunately they have so much money and are so connected no one in government will touch them. |
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Posted: 6/1/2022 1:00:21 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Tbone-1: Not trying to be mean/rude. Is she fucking retarded? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Tbone-1: Originally Posted By exponentialpi:
Not trying to be mean/rude. Is she fucking retarded? Worse. Ideologically blinded. |
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Posted: 6/1/2022 3:06:28 PM EDT
[#25]
Not seeing any slow down locally.
Kind of sucks, lot of people who were born and raised here can't afford to move out of their parents place cause outsiders are coming in with cash in hand. |
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Posted: 6/1/2022 9:01:01 PM EDT
[Last Edit: GETBACKINTHEKITCHEN]
[#26]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Gatorcountry: Here's some more food for thought - myself and a lot of other analysts are closely watching the price of oil. On the chart once again we see some strong trends going back to 2008. On the support side, the nominal price of oil has had strong support at $32.42. In fact, price has only opened and closed below this support once in 14 years. Now we are pushing up towards the 2008 all time nominal high of $147.18. The 2022 inflation adjusted all time high is $165.98. Using these numbers I ran a Fib retrace from the adjusted all time high down to the nominal low (a bit wonky but the nominal low has such small drift it won't change much). Here are the number to watch over the next few months - For the first time since 2008, oil closed above the 61.8% retrace of $114.96 breaching this level of resistance. This morning we are at $116.61. Next price level to watch for is the 78.6% retrace at $137.40. If it tests and rolls over the 78.6% retrace then watch out for $147.18 which completes the retrace and puts it back to the 2008 nominal high. This is a strong physiological resistance level and it's the one most are watching for. Depending on how the markets react to QT, what the summer storm season brings, continuing geopolitical instability and whatever new green policy the government decides to try price may very well try to test the inflation adjusted all time high. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/88037/Capture_JPG-2403994.jpg Three things have a relationship to FRNs unlike any other: Gold, Silver, and Oil. FRNs are expanding in supply bigly. |
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HI, USA
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Posted: 6/1/2022 9:46:40 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Gatorcountry: According to Jamie Dimon CEO of JPMorgan Chase - The other large factor worrying Dimon is the Ukraine war and its impact on commodities, including food and fuel. Oil "almost has to go up in price" because of disruptions caused by the worst European conflict since World War II, potentially hitting $150 or $175 a barrel, Dimon said. Jamie Dimon says 'brace yourself' for an economic hurricane caused by the Fed and Ukraine war In my chart I have an inflation adjusted high of $165.98 as the next level of resistance if there is a break through of $147 - which puts me right in the middle of his estimate. Notice he mentioned two factors I brought up - the Fed and geopolitical instability. But he didn't mention anything about the governments whacked green policies towards oil and gas. Guess he wants to keep that ESG rating up there with the big boys. Energy is really the only sector showing strength in the market at this point. I would not be surprised if the commies try to pass a windfall profits tax on energy companies. Most of the libtard states are handing out checks from the plandemic stimulus funds left over, when that runs out what are they going to buy votes with? I read today the fktards in the EU are considering it. Watching things like a hawk and plan to exit if it looks like the political vampires in this country are going to go in that direction. |
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Posted: 6/2/2022 4:17:47 AM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By VooDoo3dfx: Not seeing any slow down locally. Kind of sucks, lot of people who were born and raised here can't afford to move out of their parents place cause outsiders are coming in with cash in hand. Where is locally.. you cant say that without context. |
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Posted: 6/2/2022 8:40:06 AM EDT
[#29]
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NE, USA
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Posted: 6/2/2022 8:44:19 AM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By DVCER: It is nice. We were just flying a kite out back. Far west Colorado. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/857/74EF7363-0A8C-4CBA-B9FB-394AB655D8AE_jpe-2322899.JPG What ever else good or bad goes on in your life, in THIS aspect you sir are an absolute winner. |
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Posted: 6/2/2022 9:56:02 AM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By flynlr: Where is locally.. you cant say that without context. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By flynlr: Originally Posted By VooDoo3dfx: Not seeing any slow down locally. Kind of sucks, lot of people who were born and raised here can't afford to move out of their parents place cause outsiders are coming in with cash in hand. Where is locally.. you cant say that without context. NJ |
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Posted: 6/2/2022 9:56:35 AM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By exponentialpi: Supply may be changing. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/200878/52B9A237-1652-429B-97A2-D0229EB77B7A_jpe-2405012.JPG Well, aren't they a realtor group?
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Posted: 6/2/2022 10:05:08 AM EDT
[#33]
Gotta love a 2.75% 30 year zero-cost refi done in summer 2020. Not making a cent of extra payments on that.
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Posted: 6/2/2022 10:53:42 AM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By fxntime: People really do tend to forget about the tax increases when they start bragging about how much the value of their house has gone up over the past couple of years. Add in a couple of millage increases for stupid stuff and some people start realizing that eating may become a treat and not a necessity. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By fxntime: Originally Posted By Bubbles: Originally Posted By fxntime: Then add in the increased property taxes for most of those areas and add that into the monthly cost. For some of those areas you could add $500 to probably close to a grand in monthly costs. Speaking of property taxes the new assessments are starting to be released. Some people are seeing 20-30% increases over prior years and tax rates aren't changing to compensate. Ouch. People really do tend to forget about the tax increases when they start bragging about how much the value of their house has gone up over the past couple of years. Add in a couple of millage increases for stupid stuff and some people start realizing that eating may become a treat and not a necessity. Meh, it's a small drop in the bucket. The rise in gas prices costs me more than the increase in my property tax. At least when my property tax goes up, I have something to show for it. Gas, food, travel, and every other price increase just makes me poorer. |
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Posted: 6/2/2022 10:56:05 AM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By exponentialpi: Supply may be changing. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/200878/52B9A237-1652-429B-97A2-D0229EB77B7A_jpe-2405012.JPG Their business is dependent on people listing homes.
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USA
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Posted: 6/3/2022 1:04:40 AM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Mr_Nasty99: Their business is dependent on people listing homes.Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Mr_Nasty99: Originally Posted By exponentialpi: Supply may be changing. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/200878/52B9A237-1652-429B-97A2-D0229EB77B7A_jpe-2405012.JPG Their business is dependent on people listing homes.Their commission is based on home sales price. They would benefit from people waiting if the value increased. |
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Posted: 6/3/2022 1:38:47 AM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By exponentialpi:
Jesus... can we get Mr. Irrational Exuberance back? At least he knew we were fucked before it happened. |
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Posted: 6/3/2022 2:08:27 AM EDT
[#38]
Perhaps someone in this situation should not be buying a house…
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Posted: 6/3/2022 7:17:31 AM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By broken_reticle: Their commission is based on home sales price. They would benefit from people waiting if the value increased. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By broken_reticle: Originally Posted By Mr_Nasty99: Originally Posted By exponentialpi: Supply may be changing. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/200878/52B9A237-1652-429B-97A2-D0229EB77B7A_jpe-2405012.JPG Their business is dependent on people listing homes.Their commission is based on home sales price. They would benefit from people waiting if the value increased. If they do, if the market turns and house values go down.. |
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Posted: 6/3/2022 7:30:11 AM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By VooDoo3dfx: If they do, if the market turns and house values go down.. Anecdotal, but homes by me are now sitting. People who are trying to bid over-ask aren't able to come up with financing. |
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Posted: 6/3/2022 7:38:02 AM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Mr_Nasty99: Meh, it's a small drop in the bucket. The rise in gas prices costs me more than the increase in my property tax. At least when my property tax goes up, I have something to show for it. Gas, food, travel, and every other price increase just makes me poorer. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Mr_Nasty99: Originally Posted By fxntime: Originally Posted By Bubbles: Originally Posted By fxntime: Then add in the increased property taxes for most of those areas and add that into the monthly cost. For some of those areas you could add $500 to probably close to a grand in monthly costs. Speaking of property taxes the new assessments are starting to be released. Some people are seeing 20-30% increases over prior years and tax rates aren't changing to compensate. Ouch. People really do tend to forget about the tax increases when they start bragging about how much the value of their house has gone up over the past couple of years. Add in a couple of millage increases for stupid stuff and some people start realizing that eating may become a treat and not a necessity. Meh, it's a small drop in the bucket. The rise in gas prices costs me more than the increase in my property tax. At least when my property tax goes up, I have something to show for it. Gas, food, travel, and every other price increase just makes me poorer. Everything you listed in your last sentence can be changed by the consumer making choices, changing their purchases, cancelling things like vacations, driving less, moving into a cheaper vehicle that is more fuel efficient and so on. Taxes,yeah, not so much. And you see very little cost effective things from taxes, almost all levels of governments are black holes where money disappears and results are mostly talked about but rarely actually are truthful. There are very few things local taxes should pay for. Police, fire [and those departments are usually top heavy with far to many useless employees] water, sewer, roads, schools. No one who doesn't want to get pissed off will look into how much money is dumped into hand outs, social engineering, programs, and shit that has absolutely no right to a dime of taxed dollars. And everything that is funded by local taxes should be ''just enough,'' not the Taj Mahal bullshit that it usually ends up being with cost over runs and changes that ALWAYS cost more. I always kind of keep track of what one of the ''bigger'' towns in my area dumps into ''programs'' and it's either a laugh when you hear whining about the budget [NO tends to fix budget issues] or will make you mad as hell. The second we went from using tax dollars for the ENTIRE public good and started using it for ''individuals'' instead VIA programs is when it all falls apart. All you end up with is leeches and the useless breeding out of control and destroying an area. [and that includes any type of public housing] |
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Posted: 6/3/2022 8:07:47 AM EDT
[#42]
This sounds like an incredibly bad idea which means it will probably get traction
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Posted: 6/3/2022 8:23:38 AM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Silverbulletz06: Anecdotal, but homes by me are now sitting. People who are trying to bid over-ask aren't able to come up with financing. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Silverbulletz06: Originally Posted By VooDoo3dfx: If they do, if the market turns and house values go down.. Anecdotal, but homes by me are now sitting. People who are trying to bid over-ask aren't able to come up with financing. Just saw a house go 100k over list price this past week. Definitely locally driven. |
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Posted: 6/3/2022 8:32:27 AM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Win1300: This sounds like an incredibly bad idea which means it will probably get traction
Wow that's some solid commie price fixing/central planning bullshit there. They're probably gonna try it. |
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Posted: 6/3/2022 8:51:27 AM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Win1300: This sounds like an incredibly bad idea which means it will probably get traction
That sounds like a great idea! Oh wait, THE GOVERNMENT IS BROKE! |
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Posted: 6/3/2022 8:55:16 AM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Porkchop_Sandwiches: That sounds like a great idea! Oh wait, THE GOVERNMENT IS BROKE! That's certainly never slowed them down previously
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Posted: 6/3/2022 9:35:57 AM EDT
[#47]
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Posted: 6/3/2022 10:32:48 AM EDT
[Last Edit: eesmith]
[#48]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Bohr_Adam: Worse. Ideologically blinded. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Bohr_Adam: Originally Posted By Tbone-1: Originally Posted By exponentialpi:
Not trying to be mean/rude. Is she fucking retarded? Worse. Ideologically blinded. As you might guess he's never worked a normie private sector job in his life, only in government, campaigns (Beto was the latest one) and NGOs like Center for American Progress. |
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Posted: 6/3/2022 10:46:53 AM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Firearmsenthusiast: Jesus... can we get Mr. Irrational Exuberance back? At least he knew we were fucked before it happened. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Firearmsenthusiast: Originally Posted By exponentialpi:
Jesus... can we get Mr. Irrational Exuberance back? At least he knew we were fucked before it happened. You mean the guy that dumped all of his investments right before he tanked the stock market? That fucking crook should be in jail and his wealth confiscated for insider trading. |
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Posted: 6/3/2022 10:48:16 AM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuote HistoryOriginally Posted By PeepEater: Originally Posted By HIMARS13A: Originally Posted By VooDoo3dfx: To who tho? At the right discount someone will take them. A 3% $100,000 mortgage note sounds like a bad deal unless someone sells it to you for $50,000... then it's a pretty good deal.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ch77I8xoUMs"The Big Short" gets all the love, but that was an under appreciated movie. |
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