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Posted: 5/13/2021 9:22:12 AM EDT
 Attached FileI'd be surprised if it kept going on the current parabolic trend line. Looking at the major indice's futures over the past couple days, there has finally been a big dislocation. |
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Posted: 5/13/2021 9:27:00 AM EDT
[#1]
That’s just because people don’t have any gas in their cars to drive to Home Depot to pay $87 for a 2x4
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Posted: 5/13/2021 9:27:07 AM EDT
[#2]
Two data points makes a trend , on that chart?
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Posted: 5/13/2021 9:28:29 AM EDT
[#3]
In the lumber industry.
Mills are still taking whatever trash Is sent and paying stupid money for it. |
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Posted: 5/13/2021 9:29:11 AM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Two data points makes a trend , on that chart? A deviation like that marks a change in the markets. Nothing definitive, but a strong enough deviation to support an argumemt for the end of a trend. |
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Posted: 5/13/2021 9:29:15 AM EDT
[#5]
We will see.
Paid $38 3 weeks ago for 7/16 OSB for a home. Yesterday it was at $52 and my salesman said they expected close to $60 sheet within the next week or so. |
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Posted: 5/13/2021 9:29:38 AM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Two data points makes a trend , on that chart? I will certainly hold out longer to see if it continues, but around me all the big box stores are BULGING with lumber that is not selling. |
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Posted: 5/13/2021 9:30:34 AM EDT
[#7]
Tell that to the lumber brokers and saw mills. There is jack shit available with no one seeing a change anytime soon.
I am asking for the inside reasons for this monstrosity and the answer is they don’t have the manpower to get it done. One mill has millions and millions of board feet ready to come out of the woods and just can’t get it done and cut. It’s a big mill too not some backyard Wood Mizer. |
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Posted: 5/13/2021 9:31:03 AM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Two data points makes a trend , on that chart? you do see the left hand side of a head and shoulders pattern dont you? And there are a slew of data points, the left of a H&S pattern, the mean line, i.e. eventually mean reversion will occur, fibonachi retracement, etc |
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Posted: 5/13/2021 9:31:22 AM EDT
[#9]
Construction is going to hit the wall by the time summer sets in. Way too much uncertainty to drop major dough on that shit. There's a "what's next" mentality is all that's building for the foreseeable future.
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Posted: 5/13/2021 9:31:33 AM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted: A deviation like that marks a change in the markets. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Two data points makes a trend , on that chart? A deviation like that marks a change in the markets. People don't think my quant skills be like they do |
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Posted: 5/13/2021 9:31:55 AM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Tell that to the lumber brokers and saw mills. There is jack shit available with no one seeing a change anytime soon. I am asking for the inside reasons for this monstrosity and the answer is they don’t have the manpower to get it done. One mill has millions and millions of board feet ready to come out of the woods and just can’t get it done and cut. It’s a big mill too not some backyard Wood Mizer. you do realize FUTURES are forward looking, that's why they are called FUTURES |
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Posted: 5/13/2021 9:32:38 AM EDT
[#12]
I hope it does become a trend. Talking to people in the construction industry and we've already reached the denial point. Developers cannot build at this price point. Enough stagnation and you have to assume supply will catch up?
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Posted: 5/13/2021 9:32:39 AM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Two data points makes a trend , on that chart? Depends If he's right and lumber continues to fall, then of course it indicated a trend, much smarts If he's wrong, well this just goes away and people forget, que the next event People said the same thing mid-April, right before it continued to the moon Lots of guys make their whole career doing stuff like this Including myself 
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Posted: 5/13/2021 9:33:28 AM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That's just because people don't have any gas in their cars to drive to Home Depot to pay $87 for a 2x4 |
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Posted: 5/13/2021 9:34:42 AM EDT
[#15]
About damned time. Our cost to build went up $40/S.F. over the last 12 months.
Just got a price increase in drywall, and there's another one coming June 1. |
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Posted: 5/13/2021 9:35:37 AM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Depends If he's right and lumber continues to fall, then of course it indicated a trend, much smarts If he's wrong, well this just goes away and people forget, que the next event People said the same thing mid-April, right before it continued to the moon Lots of guys make their whole career doing stuff like this Including myself Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Two data points makes a trend , on that chart? Depends If he's right and lumber continues to fall, then of course it indicated a trend, much smarts If he's wrong, well this just goes away and people forget, que the next event People said the same thing mid-April, right before it continued to the moon Lots of guys make their whole career doing stuff like this Including myself mid april's dip wasn't enough of a retracement to mean anything, then you also couple that with still having orders for new homes on the books, I didn't expect it to reverse back then. |
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Posted: 5/13/2021 9:45:43 AM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted: We will see. Paid $38 3 weeks ago for 7/16 OSB for a home. Yesterday it was at $52 and my salesman said they expected close to $60 sheet within the next week or so. Makes me wonder what standard marine grade exterior plywood? |
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Posted: 5/13/2021 9:55:11 AM EDT
[#18]
Well, crypto is going down, gas is flowing, ammo coming back, the lumber shit is ending too
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Posted: 5/13/2021 10:00:05 AM EDT
[#19]
I hope it goes back to last years prices. I really want to build my deck this summer.
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Posted: 5/13/2021 10:08:14 AM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I hope it goes back to last years prices. I really want to build my deck this summer. It's a "next year" project now. That's what I'm doing. Punting. Not worth it now. |
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Posted: 5/13/2021 10:11:58 AM EDT
[#21]
I order trucks of lumber and panels weekly. Last year 2x4 6'-16' was around $500/m. Now it's pushing $2000/m
1/2" plywood was $400-500/m and now is $1800-$2000/m. The price could get cut in half and still be double of this time last year |
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Posted: 5/13/2021 10:16:17 AM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted: People don't think my quant skills be like they do  The Big Short Clip - That's My Quant 
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Posted: 5/13/2021 10:16:19 AM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I order trucks of lumber and panels weekly. Last year 2x4 6'-16' was around $500/m. Now it's pushing $2000/m 1/2" plywood was $400-500/m and now is $1800-$2000/m. The price could get cut in half and still be double of this time last year The thing about commodities going parabolic is that the down swing often has very similar velocity to the upswing and sometimes even more so. Just look at historical crude oil prices. |
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Posted: 5/13/2021 10:16:40 AM EDT
[#24]
Just a guess...the lumber situation hasn't improved, but new construction buyers are walking away from the table when they see the time and cost estimate for that house they want...especially given the probability that the trend line resumes it's march upwards when Biden's work force continues to prefer being paid for napping on the couch to sweating in a loud and dangerous sawmill.
It's happening a lot here. We have multiple friends who've shelved projects. |
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Posted: 5/13/2021 10:17:16 AM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: People don't think my quant skills be like they do  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FoYC_8cutb0one of the best parts of the movie
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Posted: 5/13/2021 10:19:05 AM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Just a guess...the lumber situation hasn't improved, but new construction buyers are walking away from the table when they see the time and cost estimate for that house they want...especially given the probability that the trend line resumes it's march upwards when Biden's work force continues to prefer being paid for napping on the couch to sweating in a loud and dangerous sawmill. It's happening a lot here. We have multiple friends who've shelved projects. The mills have no incentive to increase production at the moment because they have fat margins, as those margins shrink, they will have to increase production, as production increases, margins will shrink more, then keep shrinking until homeostasis is reached. I highly doubt the mills are managed by people who posses the skill to understand how commodity demand curves work and how this is going to bite them in the ass. |
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Posted: 5/13/2021 10:22:53 AM EDT
[#27]
Any ideas on the effect of rising materials/construction costs on land prices? Seems if people are being priced out of new construction, land isn't as attractive right now. Of course that's the short-term view.
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Posted: 5/13/2021 10:24:49 AM EDT
[#28]
the lumber mills stopped accepting bitcoin for payment
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Posted: 5/13/2021 10:25:35 AM EDT
[#29]
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Posted: 5/13/2021 10:27:24 AM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Any ideas on the effect of rising materials/construction costs on land prices? Seems if people are being priced out of new construction, land isn't as attractive right now. Of course that's the short-term view. The one thing I have learned over the years about people who buy land to speculate with is that unless the bank is forcing them to sell because they are in a serious bind, people will sit on land for 100 years until they feel they are getting a good price for it. henceforth why the only real time you actually saw land prices plummet was in 2007/8 because everyone was so levered, all those positions had to unwind. You buy a 1,000,000 piece of land with cash, you then can use it as collateral to then buy other pieces of land and so on and so forth. |
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Posted: 5/13/2021 10:36:58 AM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted: We will see. Paid $38 3 weeks ago for 7/16 OSB for a home. Yesterday it was at $52 and my salesman said they expected close to $60 sheet within the next week or so. Jesus fucking Christ. |
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Posted: 5/13/2021 10:37:29 AM EDT
[#32]
FPNI
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Posted: 5/13/2021 10:37:30 AM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It's a "next year" project now. That's what I'm doing. Punting. Not worth it now. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I hope it goes back to last years prices. I really want to build my deck this summer. It's a "next year" project now. That's what I'm doing. Punting. Not worth it now. |
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Posted: 5/13/2021 10:39:28 AM EDT
[#34]
When the crash hits...not if but when....there will be a ton of overpriced lumber sitting in yards and on job sites. Glad I decided to mostly sit this year out of the business.
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Posted: 5/13/2021 10:46:48 AM EDT
[#35]
Hmm, 2x4x8 lumber was $7.65 locally 2 days ago.
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Posted: 5/13/2021 11:25:35 AM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted: In the lumber industry. Mills are still taking whatever trash Is sent and paying stupid money for it. I don't know about your AO but , around here mills ain't paying shit for logs and they only take what they want. Try sending a mill a load of shit logs and see what you get paid for them. It's not the grower that's getting rich |
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Posted: 5/13/2021 11:28:45 AM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It's a "next year" project now. That's what I'm doing. Punting. Not worth it now. |
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Posted: 5/13/2021 11:28:48 AM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It's a "next year" project now. That's what I'm doing. Punting. Not worth it now. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I hope it goes back to last years prices. I really want to build my deck this summer. It's a "next year" project now. That's what I'm doing. Punting. Not worth it now. |
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Posted: 5/13/2021 11:29:20 AM EDT
[#39]
I pass more than one mill and/or treatment plant on the way to our hunting property. Last weekend they all had more lumber than I’ve ever seen on those yards for the last 15 years.
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Posted: 5/13/2021 11:30:30 AM EDT
[#40]
I hope this continues, this amongst many other factors has made buying a house a total bastard.
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Posted: 5/13/2021 11:31:45 AM EDT
[#41]
I can't imagine what the guy building his house in a lot behind us is overpaying for lumber.
Housing prices have already reached max retardation here and this guy began building in Feb/March. I'm willing to bet hes paying 1.5M or more for something that would have listed for 600-750k less than 12 months ago. |
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Posted: 5/13/2021 11:34:45 AM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Construction is going to hit the wall by the time summer sets in. Way too much uncertainty to drop major dough on that shit. There's a "what's next" mentality is all that's building for the foreseeable future. I wonder if it is already hitting the wall. Have spoken to two different builders that have projects that are either shuttered or being delayed or scaled back due to price spikes and supply chain issues. Last time I heard noises like this in high end residential was in late 2007/early 2008 and we know how that played out. |
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Posted: 5/13/2021 11:35:19 AM EDT
[#43]
Quoted: https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/277411/lumber_5_13_PNG-1940488.JPG I'd be surprised if it kept going on the current parabolic trend line. Looking at the major indice's futures over the past couple days, there has finally been a big dislocation. Bull flag, moon time. |
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Posted: 5/13/2021 11:38:07 AM EDT
[#44]
Construction is still strong in Ohio. One builder told us his lumber packages have increased in price since priced last year $50k-120,000 for his customers. Very high end builder with almost all customers paying cash for the houses. Thats a big check to write just to get your house framed
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Posted: 5/13/2021 11:50:56 AM EDT
[#45]
At current prices I have been considering an Alaska mill.
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Posted: 5/13/2021 11:53:02 AM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted: In the lumber industry. Mills are still taking whatever trash Is sent and paying stupid money for it. |
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Posted: 5/13/2021 11:56:25 AM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I will certainly hold out longer to see if it continues, but around me all the big box stores are BULGING with lumber that is not selling. It can sit there till it rots at current prices as far as I care. Was planning on replacing my deck last fall, priced it out and figured I'd wait til prices went back to normal. Last week I just replaced a few of the really bad boards but I'm not replacing it all at these rates. |
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Posted: 5/13/2021 11:58:07 AM EDT
[#48]
Wait? Should I be shorting lumber stocks now?
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Posted: 5/13/2021 11:58:10 AM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That’s just because people don’t have any gas in their cars to drive to Home Depot to pay $87 for a 2x4  GeeDee  Gawd how this place can be epic at times. 
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Posted: 5/13/2021 11:59:31 AM EDT
[#50]
"Correlation is weakening."
Seems pretty damn correlated given what happened yesterday. |
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