The market makes no sense.  I see no reason why everything should be continuously going up, and yet indexes are just trucking like the economy is super great.

Seems like maybe dump everything into indexes, and keep adjusting stop losses to sell if it drops a certain percentage?

The realization that Trump will win is pushing it imo.

This right here.  You can also count on Biden pulling all the levers of fiscal policy to pump money into the economy as all incumbent Presidents do when running for reelection.

Wall Street has been completely detached from Main Street for years now.

If any one major institution begins to fail they will just bail them out with our money. What's not to rally around?

If your portfolio was guaranteed with other people's money you would likely gamble like no tomorrow too.

Markets track with inflation. I think Venezuela has done the same thing if I’m not mistaken.

This.  The number of shares of a company is fixed.  If the company does a split or issues new shares, existing shares are devalued(just like the dollar is devalued when .gov prints more of them).

So when a dollar is worth less (ie inflation due to printing more money) it takes more dollars to buy a share.  

The key is how the market performs when you adjust share prices for inflation.  
An 8% market gain when inflation is 2% is much better than an 8% market gain when inflation is 8%.

that’s called investing.
You can get 5% on cash now, but once you account for inflation 5% interest means your cash is barely holding its value.

Just when I was feeling ok with a couple cd's at 5% you reminded me how little I am actually making.  Sometimes I feel like a hamster in a wheel running and getting nowhere, then finally getting tossed out.

The impact of the government reaction to COVID is even deeper than many of us had suspected.  

I don't know what to make of it that higher interest rates haven't push things over a reality cliff yet.  I honestly thought we'd be there 3 to 6 months ago.

That said, we've done this half a dozen times since I've been alive.  The reckoning never comes on any particular schedule.  

Everyone gives Michael Burry all sorts of credit for predicting the housing market crash but people forget that he lost his ass for a couple years being early.  Even he couldn't believe it took until 2008 to finally get pushed over the edge.  That's what makes trading this kind of thing so hard.

If your tired of trying to "understand" and would like to just follow the data and make money I highly recommend becoming a subscriber to Hedgeye products.  Get the Macro Show, Early Look, and real time alerts at a minimum.  It will take you a while to deprogram from the Wall Street narrative bullshit.  All they do is data-driven, back-tested ect and time-stamped.  They have integrity and aren't running their book so they have a vested interest in you doing it well yourself.  
Since I found them a few years ago, I'm doing quite well.  Its been a hell of a ride learning to go short, long and back short again depending on the cycle.  We invest all over the world...right now Spain, Germany, India, China, Commodities, precious metals, you name it.  The CEO says if it ticks he doesnt care what it is, if its bullish trade, trend and tail, he'll buy it.
Good Luck.

I have a trial sub to Early Look and agree they're pretty good.  I do my own research and look to them for confirmation as I don't examine volatility like they do (don't want to pay for that data).  I also don't blindly follow their recommendations but consider modifying my positions based on their picks when I feel the risk/reward is in line with my comfort level.  A good example is I won't go long a stock that has never turned a profit, even after many years of operation.  To me that's a fundamentally flawed business model and there are better ways to make money.

I highly recommend catching the macro show when it’s free.  The Quad Model….growth inflation and policy information is critical.  The risk range product is also very good.  I’m way up since I started to unlearn headline story telling bs and onboarded his models.

A few thoughts on your last sentence.  Perhaps some back testing might be in order to understand the tax implications of you plan (assuming your not referring only to qualified assets).  Most people who attempt to time market bottoms fail.  This then can cause them to buy back in at the wrong time as well.  There are many behavior finance books written on this subject.

Depending on your age,  and assuming you are invested in broadly diversified mutual funds or etfs, a better approach might be to just let the market do it's thing.  Sit back and enjoy the ride.  By doing so, you stack the odds in your favor.  Now if you are a short timer you may want to consider de-risking your portfolio.  That should be do anyway and should not be market dependent.

Those of us who have been around the block can attest, you will be ok if you simply focus on a long term plan.  Here is what I've had to deal with an still haven't sold anything significant.  (yes I'm that old)

1.  survived the crash of 1987
2.  survived to Dot-Com. bubble
3.  survived the Housing crisis of 2008-2009
4.  survived the Covid correction
5.  survived 15% interest rates and 1% interest rates
6.  survived Vietnam, Gulf War 1, Gulf War 2, Countless other international incidents.
7.  survived the oil embargo, global warming, oil futures trading in the negative, stagflation, deflation, inflation, recessions, irrational exuberance, Enron

and the list goes on.


I wish you good luck in your journey.

Brought back old memories! Thanks for the trip down memory lane.

Don't even try to understand it. The market is complicated. Unless you are a business owner yourself—in that case, you definitely need to grasp it. One useful tip for business owners is learning how to text from a different number using your personal phone https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-text-from-different-number-clerk-chat-i7lbe. This allows you to manage business communications without carrying multiple phones. This tool simplifies your communication, allowing you to keep personal and business messages separate while maintaining professionalism and efficiency.

The libtards vehemently disagree. The economy is doing great! Low unemployment, stock market going up! That's the only economic gauge people need to care about. They don't need to know of all the other levers available, nor how unemployment is calculated, or what inflation means.

Remember, the President controls the price of gas! JoJo from Jersey says so!

The quick and dirty definition of inflation should be: Everything goes up, except wages.