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USA
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Posted: 3/3/2021 4:53:30 PM EDT
[#1]
If you look at any stocks chart for the past month, it looks like an ECG. There is only so long that it can bounce up and down like that before "pop!"
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Posted: 3/3/2021 4:53:59 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By whoanelly: In line with both RE prices and the real cost of consumer goods? Okay. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By whoanelly: Originally Posted By spidey07: Originally Posted By whoanelly: Originally Posted By ben123: I don’t believe a crash will happen. That implies the dollar will have more buying power. I expect the opposite, mortgages to go up and cost of living to to go up For both mortgages and cost of living to go up, wages would also have to increase. That's not happening. We're planning on selling within a month, and will probably move right into a rental house to ride this out. Wages are absolutely going up. In line with both RE prices and the real cost of consumer goods? Okay. Obviously so given demand for RE along with consumer spending. |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 4:54:21 PM EDT
[#3]
 Case of the Mondays |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 4:55:46 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Ronin72: If you look at any stocks chart for the past month, it looks like an ECG. There is only so long that it can bounce up and down like that before "pop!" Can you compare volatility to historic norms? Volatility is actually tracked, you can look it up. |
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MI, USA
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Posted: 3/3/2021 4:55:56 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Seph: Been saying this for over a year now and everyone seemed to think another crash was impossible If we never addressed the root cause of the last crash, another one is just a matter of time. The thing is, people assume that when an economy crashes, wealth is lost and destroyed. It isn't. Fortunes just move from one set of parties to another in direct wealth transfer and there are additional frictional losses along the way that punish individual investors to boot. Fortunes were made in the Great Depression, always remember that, Folks. We live in a world where a ruling class simply sees us as a crop to be managed in the way that a farmer or beekeeper does. They grow the crops and hives and take just enough of the honey and wheat to not kill the farmer or starve the hive. Sometimes they mismanage their crops and the crops perform poorly and harvests fail, causing the farms to fail. It happens like this every day. |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 4:58:01 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Rhinowso96: You'll enjoy it when that house is going for $125K...  Hopefully I can sell it and go rural about a week before the crash. 
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TX, USA
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Posted: 3/3/2021 5:02:24 PM EDT
[#7]
When you look at margin debt you get an idea of how far it can fall once the dominoes start toppling. Personally I think the current SPAC craze will end up turning into .com 2.0 and precipitate the next market come apart.
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AZE
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Posted: 3/3/2021 5:12:32 PM EDT
[#8]
There won't be another residential real estate collapse. In 08 lots of foreclosures created lots of available housing which drove prices down. Then laws changed to stop the so called deflation. Banks are allowed to own properties now, Berkshire was removing properties for sale to increase prices and/or give to our newly imported citizens. Now the government printed trillions in a second to buy any available properties, cause y'all will own nothing...Not about money anymore but power and they have both.
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MI, USA
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Posted: 3/3/2021 5:16:54 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By cosmo05: Housing prices are inflated because of low interest rates. Lenders are encouraging people to take out equity loans. Interest rates spike, housing prices go down, again, like before, people will be holding a mortgage for a house worth less than what they owe. Biden will collapse the economy big time, between inflation, illegal aliens flooding the country, rice rabies lock downs and an interest spike and taxes, yea we are fucked.  They are incentivizing people to equity strip their homes to buy shit they don't need to keep the economy limping along just that little bit longer. This isn't a Biden thing, it's a puppetmaster thing. Biden is just the useful idiot figurehead. |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 5:23:20 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By FistPeso: The rules will get changed if needed, the system will not be allowed to break, so I wouldn't get too excited. That’s my concern. They will change the rules and in doing so delete more, if not all, of our freedoms. |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 5:23:55 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By FunYun1983: That is the current situation, there is no current explanation other than naked shorting, which is already illegal. It’s actually not. There are certain rules regarding it. |
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MI, USA
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Posted: 3/3/2021 5:25:53 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By tbonifie: Crash? Sure. Bailout? Not sure what they can do that isn't already being done in that regard... have you seen the last three "stimulus" bills. They are attempting to bail out everything. It's not going to work the way they think (or maybe that's actually the plan? <- more likely, IMO). How did we solve the last Depression? We went to war. Is it really a surprise we are seeing Iran stepping out of line with Drone and missile attacks that are hard to prove they did it? Been an awful, awful lot of talk in the last few days about their nuclear program and noncompliance and how they are meddling in syria and how we and the Israelis are starting to engage them militarily. |
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TN, USA
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Posted: 3/3/2021 5:27:09 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By rod727: Not sure another 2008 will play out but yeah I’m feeling something Jeremy Grantham, GMO founder, thinks the next crash will be much worse. PE values are at similar levels to 1929. 10 year treasury yields are now more then the average S&P 500 dividend. Grantham points out the Fed is making poor decisions similar to what happened during the Nixon administration, which led to double digit inflation in the 70's. They were able to raise interest rates back then to curb inflation. I don't think that tool is available today due to the sheer level of gov't debt. And then we have a run up in housing like occurred in the mid 2000's. Banks are back to their old lending habits and people are taking out HELOC's in order to fund toy purchases. What can go wrong? |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 5:29:06 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By tbonifie: Crash? Sure. Bailout? Not sure what they can do that isn't already being done in that regard... have you seen the last three "stimulus" bills. They are attempting to bail out everything. It's not going to work the way they think (or maybe that's actually the plan? <- more likely, IMO). I don’t think you understand what I’m saying.....the word stimulus and the amount vs the bailout will be so different. I truly see multi trillion dollars. |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 5:31:55 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Strizzo: When you look at margin debt you get an idea of how far it can fall once the dominoes start toppling. Personally I think the current SPAC craze will end up turning into .com 2.0 and precipitate the next market come apart. https://www.advisorperspectives.com/images/content_image/data/a3/a30a850ee50d4197a0f2ae25a7946163.png Stimulus money go brrrrrrrrr. |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 5:32:26 PM EDT
[#16]
I agree with the title of your post.
But disagree that it has anything to do with GME. GME is not a drop in the bucket compared to across the board inflated valuations and asset pricing bubbles. Also overleveraged governments, companies, and consumers. Could GME be a catalyst? Perhaps. But the catalyst could also be any of 1,000 other things. |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 5:32:45 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BBTC_MH: That’s my concern. They will change the rules and in doing so delete more, if not all, of our freedoms. Yup, you can bank on it. |
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KY, USA
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Posted: 3/3/2021 5:33:12 PM EDT
[#18]
Remember October 1929 crash was about 25% of the way down in the first week, the rest over 9 month's or so to hit bottem.
It sawtoothed up a little and down more, there was some big old money that was out before the crash and jumped in on a small up movement and then lost there money on the next bigger down. The smarter old money stayed out for a year. And then were picking up deals when people needed the money to live on. |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 5:39:20 PM EDT
[Last Edit: spidey07]
[#19]
Ok doomers, when is this huge crash coming? Y’all been predicting it for a decade. You could become a multi millionaire easy. Play it right and you could make 10s of millions.
So when is it coming and what are you doing to make millions upon millions? |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 5:43:46 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 999monkeys: I agree with the title of your post. But disagree that it has anything to do with GME. GME is not a drop in the bucket compared to across the board inflated valuations and asset pricing bubbles. Also overleveraged governments, companies, and consumers. Could GME be a catalyst? Perhaps. But the catalyst could also be any of 1,000 other things. Oh, we agree it’s a host of other things......I just think $GME is the match that lights the keg. My gut says it lights off by April (GME that is) |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 5:46:05 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spidey07: Ok doomers, when is this huge crash coming? Y’all been predicting it for a decade. You could become a multi millionaire easy. Play it right and you could make 10s of millions. So when is it coming and what are you doing to make millions upon millions? Betting against the HF’s that are over leveraged and have shorted more than 65-75% of any float. (Some estimates have certain stocks shorted nearly 100% of the float). |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 5:47:19 PM EDT
[#22]
Shit, between leveraged companies (not just hedge funds), covid bailouts, massive federal and state deficit spending, supply chain disruptions, and ongoing political turmoil, we're poised for something worse than 2008.
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MO, USA
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Posted: 3/3/2021 5:48:15 PM EDT
[#23]
Can you give me an exact date so I can pull everything out of the market?
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Posted: 3/3/2021 5:48:58 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BBTC_MH: Betting against the HF’s that are over leveraged and have shorted more than 65-75% of any float. (Some estimates have certain stocks shorted nearly 100% of the float). Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BBTC_MH: Originally Posted By spidey07: Ok doomers, when is this huge crash coming? Y’all been predicting it for a decade. You could become a multi millionaire easy. Play it right and you could make 10s of millions. So when is it coming and what are you doing to make millions upon millions? Betting against the HF’s that are over leveraged and have shorted more than 65-75% of any float. (Some estimates have certain stocks shorted nearly 100% of the float). Ok, how many millions did you make and when is the crash coming? |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 5:50:00 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Strizzo: When you look at margin debt you get an idea of how far it can fall once the dominoes start toppling. Personally I think the current SPAC craze will end up turning into .com 2.0 and precipitate the next market come apart. https://www.advisorperspectives.com/images/content_image/data/a3/a30a850ee50d4197a0f2ae25a7946163.png holy shit |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 5:50:38 PM EDT
[Last Edit: callgood]
[#26]
and after the crash..........Weimar hyperinflation FTW!  Michael Burry Warns America: Weimar Hyperinflation Is Coming 20% of all US dollars in worldwide circulation were "printed" last year. Fortunately, for the moment, velocity is low.  Attached File |
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USA
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Posted: 3/3/2021 5:51:10 PM EDT
[#27]
My fingers are crossed that the next one makes the great depression look like a cakewalk
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Posted: 3/3/2021 5:51:13 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By WoolRug: If you can't point a gun at someone and tell him to get away from IT* you don't own IT*. * Silver, gold, land, chickens... I keep my chickens in my mattress because I don't trust the coops! |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 5:52:49 PM EDT
[#29]
There was nothing backing the money printed then, and sure as hell is not there now.
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Posted: 3/3/2021 5:56:20 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Arlis: I think the 1% interest rate bump a week ago was a crack in the dam. The Fed had a payment system go offline. There were (nationwide?) credit card processing interruptions. This and possibly other events were interrelated but I am not able to find the right news sources to get a good picture of what is happening. But it’s pretty clear somebody thought that bump was worth reacting to in a big way and other defensive measures are on tap waiting for the “paste” command. When an interest increase sticks, its game over and somebody at the controls knows this and is willing to use all options at their disposal to “manage” that inevitability. I am sure that it won’t just be another 2008. Yea, Mondays tick by until they get their own name in the history books. Black Monday and Bloody Monday are taken, I wonder what this one will be called. True; we're truly a Command Economy, now, so it will indeed be different. |
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AZ, USA
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Posted: 3/3/2021 5:59:39 PM EDT
[#31]
2008 and now are totally different. In fact, we are still in the 2008 crash, the Fed just printed us out of the symptoms.
For the last ten years real money was not at play. It was not pension fund money looking for a 2% return. It was printed money that could accept a 2% return because the principal was not real money to begin with. Anyone will take 2% of real money of a pile of fake money. There will not be a 2008 crash because that was real money saying the system did not work. The current system is awash with fake money. The next crises will be inflationary. The Fed will not allow interest rates to rise and will print and print to keep them low. |
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USA
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Posted: 3/3/2021 5:59:41 PM EDT
[#32]
I don’t know about it being as bad as 2008, but definitely get ready for a bank bailout. Remember the eviction moratorium? What’s going to happen when it’s lifted and many people start foreclosing and drive values down? Banks are going to want to get bailed out too.
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Posted: 3/3/2021 5:59:49 PM EDT
[Last Edit: BlackTaco]
[#33]
Been debating the past few years to sell my very expensive house on a really nice chunk of land, and buying two nice houses on smaller lots - outright, with zero mortgage. But we love our land, and our home. But still have a big house payment even though we own 70% equity, so a tad scary.
 This thread. 
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USA
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Posted: 3/3/2021 6:00:31 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Apple123]
[#34]
What happens to the money that people have in the bank? Does it just become worthless and your poor like everyone else? Instead of saving should you have spent it? At least you would have something instead of nothing.
Should you take the money out and put in a coffee can? |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 6:02:17 PM EDT
[#35]
And how many of us will be there to SEE the see-saw come crashing down when gas prices are going up 4-7 cents a DAY. Part of the problem might be as prosaic as people unable to go to work because they can't afford to duel the car, perhaps?
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Posted: 3/3/2021 6:04:52 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Tuco22: Probably never You sound very young. I have lived through several real estate cycles where the price of RE dropped significantly, and sometimes for several years. Example: I bought a house in a nice neighborhood, desirable region, in 1989. It was just off the market peak, and it kept falling until my home was valued at about $220k, down from the $280k sales price (the "peak" price was 290-300). By my math, that's a decline of roughly 20-25%. It took 3-4 years to climb back up to the original sales price. I'm not saying it's going to happen again now, but 1989 wasn't exactly in the Pleistocene. |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 6:05:26 PM EDT
[#37]
A couple of economic gurus were sharing their views on Fox Business News this morning. Stocks GTG for the next 6 months or so, then buckle up for a wild ride.
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Posted: 3/3/2021 6:07:35 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BlackTaco: Been debating the past few years to sell my very expensive house on a really nice chunk of land, and buying two nice houses on smaller lots - outright, with zero mortgage. But we love our land, and our home. But still have a big house payment even though we own 70% equity, so a tad scary. This thread. If your jobs and income are rock solid, ride it out. You love the place so stay there. Pay it off ASAP with dollars that are declining in value. |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 6:10:53 PM EDT
[#39]
I do not believe the housing market will crash in the foreseeable future. There is a severe shortage of inventory in desirable communities in states where buyers are fleeing to. As long as interest rates stay relatively low, people will continue to buy, construction companies will continue to build and the home prices will spiral ever further upward.
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Posted: 3/3/2021 6:12:57 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By konger: I do not believe the housing market will crash in the foreseeable future. There is a severe shortage of inventory in desirable communities in states where buyers are fleeing to. As long as interest rates stay relatively low, people will continue to buy, construction companies will continue to build and the home prices will spiral ever further upward. Supply and demand, how do it work? |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 6:14:13 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By TheOtherDave: If we never addressed the root cause of the last crash, another one is just a matter of time. The thing is, people assume that when an economy crashes, wealth is lost and destroyed. It isn't. Fortunes just move from one set of parties to another in direct wealth transfer and there are additional frictional losses along the way that punish individual investors to boot. Fortunes were made in the Great Depression, always remember that, Folks. We live in a world where a ruling class simply sees us as a crop to be managed in the way that a farmer or beekeeper does. They grow the crops and hives and take just enough of the honey and wheat to not kill the farmer or starve the hive. Sometimes they mismanage their crops and the crops perform poorly and harvests fail, causing the farms to fail. It happens like this every day. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By TheOtherDave: Originally Posted By Seph: Been saying this for over a year now and everyone seemed to think another crash was impossible If we never addressed the root cause of the last crash, another one is just a matter of time. The thing is, people assume that when an economy crashes, wealth is lost and destroyed. It isn't. Fortunes just move from one set of parties to another in direct wealth transfer and there are additional frictional losses along the way that punish individual investors to boot. Fortunes were made in the Great Depression, always remember that, Folks. We live in a world where a ruling class simply sees us as a crop to be managed in the way that a farmer or beekeeper does. They grow the crops and hives and take just enough of the honey and wheat to not kill the farmer or starve the hive. Sometimes they mismanage their crops and the crops perform poorly and harvests fail, causing the farms to fail. It happens like this every day. Sometimes they go crazy and decide the best way to manage the hive is to beat it with a baseball bat for months on end, and that planting wheat in winter makes it more cold-hardy. |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 6:14:42 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By snubfan: Stop with all the negativity. If bad things were coming in America, you would first see a pattern of blatant corruption, deception, falsified documents of all types, abuse of the court system, the selective enforcement of laws, political prosecutions, and you would see a substantial security perimeter established in DC, plus attempts to control the mov't of the masses via travel restrictions; you would see jumps in gasoline prices, utility costs, food costs, medical costs, drug costs, and a move to pass substantial gun control legislation. The MSM would be delivering the news using the same verbiage on every channel to ensure the masses have the proper perspective. So comrades, there is nothing to be concerned with. I see what you did there... @snubfan |
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VA, USA
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Posted: 3/3/2021 6:15:54 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By cosmo05: Housing prices are inflated because of low interest rates. Lenders are encouraging people to take out equity loans. Interest rates spike, housing prices go down, again, like before, people will be holding a mortgage for a house worth less than what they owe. Biden will collapse the economy big time, between inflation, illegal aliens flooding the country, rice rabies lock downs and an interest spike and taxes, yea we are fucked. Agree. Can’t put a ton of stock in it, but the zillow/redfin estimates on the value of my home have gone up almost 100k in the last 10 months. Inclined to believe it though. Anything around here lately gets listed, and sold in a couple days for ~50k over asking. |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 6:16:41 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By konger: I do not believe the housing market will crash in the foreseeable future. There is a severe shortage of inventory in desirable communities in states where buyers are fleeing to. As long as interest rates stay relatively low, people will continue to buy, construction companies will continue to build and the home prices will spiral ever further upward. As soon as Californians can't sell their houses anymore, RE values in the West will crash. |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 6:19:26 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By TheOtherDave: How did we solve the last Depression? We went to war. Is it really a surprise we are seeing Iran stepping out of line with Drone and missile attacks that are hard to prove they did it? Been an awful, awful lot of talk in the last few days about their nuclear program and noncompliance and how they are meddling in syria and how we and the Israelis are starting to engage them militarily. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By TheOtherDave: Originally Posted By tbonifie: Crash? Sure. Bailout? Not sure what they can do that isn't already being done in that regard... have you seen the last three "stimulus" bills. They are attempting to bail out everything. It's not going to work the way they think (or maybe that's actually the plan? <- more likely, IMO). How did we solve the last Depression? We went to war. Is it really a surprise we are seeing Iran stepping out of line with Drone and missile attacks that are hard to prove they did it? Been an awful, awful lot of talk in the last few days about their nuclear program and noncompliance and how they are meddling in syria and how we and the Israelis are starting to engage them militarily. We didn't just "go to war," that was the distraction (and blood-sink). We also adopted a fascist command economy and denied the American public the fruits of their labor for half a decade. The Soviets also saw an economic boom when Lenin seized power & electrified the nation at gunpoint. But chickens all come home to roost, and we saw huge inflation in subsequent decades to pay off all those war bonds, and Stalin had to kill a shitload of his countrymen & enslave the remainder to keep the ride from stopping. |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 6:21:01 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By FistPeso: Stimulus money go brrrrrrrrr. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By FistPeso: Originally Posted By Strizzo: When you look at margin debt you get an idea of how far it can fall once the dominoes start toppling. Personally I think the current SPAC craze will end up turning into .com 2.0 and precipitate the next market come apart. https://www.advisorperspectives.com/images/content_image/data/a3/a30a850ee50d4197a0f2ae25a7946163.png Stimulus money go brrrrrrrrr. Zombie economy is gonna need bigger neck bolts. We done melted these ones. 
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Posted: 3/3/2021 6:21:58 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 999monkeys: I agree with the title of your post. But disagree that it has anything to do with GME. GME is not a drop in the bucket compared to across the board inflated valuations and asset pricing bubbles. Also overleveraged governments, companies, and consumers. Could GME be a catalyst? Perhaps. But the catalyst could also be any of 1,000 other things. As long as we keep it under 1500 things we should be fine... probably. |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 6:24:30 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jeepsnguns81: As soon as Californians can't sell their houses anymore, RE values in the West will crash. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jeepsnguns81: Originally Posted By konger: I do not believe the housing market will crash in the foreseeable future. There is a severe shortage of inventory in desirable communities in states where buyers are fleeing to. As long as interest rates stay relatively low, people will continue to buy, construction companies will continue to build and the home prices will spiral ever further upward. As soon as Californians can't sell their houses anymore, RE values in the West will crash. Possibly. Maybe probably. The most important thing to remember about real estate is that it's local. Community to community and street by street. A crash in California ≠ a crash in North Carolina...and so on and so forth. |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 6:28:21 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By callgood: and after the crash..........Weimar hyperinflation FTW!  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h3EU29IcFE020% of all US dollars in worldwide circulation were "printed" last year. Fortunately, for the moment, velocity is low. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/60489/debtVgdpVvel_png-1850003.JPG When a jet turbine compressor stalls, it first builds up a ton of internal pressure. As the compressor blades lose lift and stall, it all comes rushing back out the front along with lot of noise and fire until pressure falls below the stall level, then repeats at a natural frequency. What happens when you have too many dollars NOT chasing any goods? I think we're posed to experience high (not hyper) inflation and deflation --long term structural damage to the economy-- simultaneously. Like, food prices rising while entire food industries like restaurants or grocery stores disappear. |
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Posted: 3/3/2021 6:29:08 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Cherryelky305: I saw a house on .7 acres at 864sq ft. for 280k. Yeah its inflated Edit. In fucking ohio Yeah, RE has been in full retard mode lately. Literally EVERYONE from the top down is pimping real estate. Any real estate, really. Houses, acreage, condos, apartment rentals, commercial RE... every square foot no matter what it is has become a major gold rush for some reason. Call me skeptical, but I don't buy it. Something is amiss. |
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