Federal Reserve – interest rate announcement

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Posted: 6/16/2019 6:20:02 PM EDT

If the Fed delays beyond the summer, the Dems will say that the cut was a political attempt to influence the 2020 elections.

Posted: 6/16/2019 6:21:50 PM EDT

[#1]

Will cut and then cut again.

Posted: 6/16/2019 6:26:44 PM EDT

[#2]

They might. The yield curve inverted a few weeks ago so a correction is in the future. To stave that off the Fed might reduce rates. Bad for savers, good for investors. With luck the correction will come after the election.

Posted: 6/16/2019 6:27:54 PM EDT

[#3]

Probably stay level for the rest of the year.

Posted: 6/16/2019 6:32:26 PM EDT

[#4]

Quoted:
If the Fed delays beyond the summer, the Dems will say that the cut was a political attempt to influence the 2020 elections.

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IIRC, Fed did not seem to mind jacking up rates last Fall prior to the 2018 elections. Then immediately after rolling them back. Not sure why Fed wants to help Dems, but swamp got to swamp.

Posted: 6/16/2019 6:35:19 PM EDT

[#5]

I’m proud that the bottom selection is winning so far.

Posted: 6/16/2019 6:36:14 PM EDT

[#6]

Quoted:
If the Fed delays beyond the summer, the Dems will say that the cut was a political attempt to influence the 2020 elections.

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Posted: 6/16/2019 8:34:49 PM EDT

[#7]

87% chance of a rate cut by July 31. Odds rise to 97% by September 18.
https://wallethub.com/edu/fed-rate-cut-survey/63826/

Posted: 6/16/2019 8:36:18 PM EDT

[#8]

Quote History

Quoted:
Probably stay level for the rest of the year.

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Or increase

Posted: 6/17/2019 1:23:03 PM EDT

[#9]

Markets are up a bit in the past week. Looks like people are betting on a rate cut.

Posted: 6/17/2019 1:27:35 PM EDT

[#10]

2 to 3 cuts are now priced in. Any less than 2 and the markets will drop.

Posted: 6/17/2019 1:55:53 PM EDT

[#11]

Quote History

Quoted:

IIRC, Fed did not seem to mind jacking up rates last Fall prior to the 2018 elections. Then immediately after rolling them back. Not sure why Fed wants to help Dems, but swamp got to swamp.

View Quote

Huh?

Recent Rake Hikes: The Federal Reserve has increased its target rate nine times since December 2015, with no decreases.

Posted: 6/17/2019 8:11:46 PM EDT

[#12]

Quote History

Quoted:
Huh?

Recent Rake Hikes: The Federal Reserve has increased its target rate nine times since December 2015, with no decreases.

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Quote History

Quoted:

Quoted:

IIRC, Fed did not seem to mind jacking up rates last Fall prior to the 2018 elections. Then immediately after rolling them back. Not sure why Fed wants to help Dems, but swamp got to swamp.

Huh?

Recent Rake Hikes: The Federal Reserve has increased its target rate nine times since December 2015, with no decreases.

Posted: 6/17/2019 8:16:25 PM EDT

[#13]

Quote History

Quoted:
Markets are up a bit in the past week. Looks like people are betting on a rate cut.

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They're betting on as many as four rate cuts.

The market made the Fed it's bitch a very long time ago.

Posted: 6/18/2019 9:59:46 AM EDT

[#14]

Housing starts declined in May. The market is popping -- investors think this will justify a rate cut.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-housing-starts-declined-in-may-11560861140

Posted: 6/18/2019 10:10:20 AM EDT

[#15]

Interest rates reflect the cost of credit.

Price down = demand down
Price up = demand up

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS

The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds (balances held at Federal Reserve Banks) with each other overnight. When a depository institution has surplus balances in its reserve account, it lends to other banks in need of larger balances. In simpler terms, a bank with excess cash, which is often referred to as liquidity, will lend to another bank that needs to quickly raise liquidity. (1) The rate that the borrowing institution pays to the lending institution is determined between the two banks; the weighted average rate for all of these types of negotiations is called the effective federal funds rate.(2) The effective federal funds rate is essentially determined by the market but is influenced by the Federal Reserve through open market operations to reach the federal funds rate target.(2)

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The Federal Funds Rate is a "target" rate. The FOMC has to move their target because of the market. The FOMC can only push the market at the very edges.

The quantity of money, or liquidity as many like to describe it, is driven by the expansion (edit: and contraction) of credit which includes both private and public credit issuance.

The reason the entire world has not devolved into chaos since 2008 is that the US Treasury is running trillion dollar annual deficits to sustain and increase the quantity of money in the system. If the US Treasury did not run a deficit, interest rates would go NEGATIVE as mega money would be happy to pay a few percent to have the IRS and Pentagon protect their wealth in the form of US Treasury obligations.

Posted: 6/18/2019 10:23:28 AM EDT

[#16]

Mittens is super gay

Posted: 6/18/2019 10:44:23 AM EDT

[#17]

first or second.

Ain't no one raising interest rates until after the 'loo.

Posted: 6/18/2019 10:59:28 AM EDT

[#18]

I hope they do. I'm closing on a house in September, and I'm waiting to lock in a rate in hopes the rate is cut.

Posted: 6/18/2019 10:59:52 AM EDT

[#19]

Quote History

Quoted:
first or second.

Ain't no one raising interest rates until after the 'loo.

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Posted: 6/18/2019 11:08:33 AM EDT

[#20]

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

Posted: 6/18/2019 11:18:20 AM EDT

[#21]

Quote History

Quoted:
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

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This contract only has relevance for large financial institutions that need to square their books as lending market participants.

What I posted above was an explanation for why it doesn't matter what the FOMC decides.

TLDR - The FOMC does not set interest rates; the Fed follows what the market does.

Posted: 6/19/2019 11:43:32 AM EDT

[#22]

Formal announcement will be made this afternoon.
Markets are flat today, awaiting the Fed statement.

Posted: 6/19/2019 1:48:05 PM EDT

[#23]

Federal Reserve is livestreaming guitar music - Here's a link to the June announcement.

Failed To Load Title

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CrzHfhZncC0

Posted: 6/19/2019 1:55:12 PM EDT

[#24]

GDP under Trump probably would have been 1% higher if the Fed had kept rates at the Obama levels

Posted: 6/19/2019 2:03:55 PM EDT

[#25]

Quoted:
If the Fed delays beyond the summer, the Dems will say that the cut was a political attempt to influence the 2020 elections.

View Quote

Who GAF?

It won't sway one voter one way or the other.

But a kicked up economy will!

Posted: 6/19/2019 2:04:13 PM EDT

[#26]

Of course it'll be cut... Closing on home loan tomorrow.

Posted: 6/19/2019 2:09:03 PM EDT

[#27]

No rate cut this month.

While the median forecast continues to see steady rates this year at a 2.4% fed-funds target rate, eight central bankers submitted expectations of cuts this year. One central banker sees a single move this year, while seven see two easings.
The Fed's median forecast for 2020 predicts two easings to a funds-rate target of 2.1%, from 2.6% in the March projections. The Fed median long-range rate forecast also moved lower, to 2.5%, from the 2.8% forecast in March.