Wouldn't it be better to feed them to the hogs, then eat the hogs later on?

Yep, I own/run a small machine shop. Almost entirely oil related work. We have been busy for about a year and a half, but at the end of 2021 things slowed unexpectedly. Everyone was running out of money. Late payments, changing terms. The work was there, but the money to pay for it wasnt. A coupe of weeks into 2022 and back to the way it was before Oct.

Aluminum and steel through the roof, its often taking 4-5 vendors before I find the bar/tube I need, and often have to buy sizes that are not ideal ( more machine time ).
Getting pretty ridiculous

Can you elaborate on this? I’m trying to build a small house.

Fuel and asphalt.


Bids went out for contracts a while ago. Especially larger projects. If you bid fuel at 3-4 a gallon 2 years ago.  And it’s going to be 5 now… that’s a rough time.  

Asphalt is the same way. You bid your costs. It’s sky rocketed in price.

Heavy machinery runs on diesel.  All materials are transported using diesel.

You will pay more.  Any relief we've seen in bldg material costs is about to be erased.

Grading contractors I know can't bid a job due to the rising cost of diesel and they are having to go back to the owner on current big jobs to get more money to cover the fuel costs.  Construction has been rocking, but it's about to come to a halt from the effects of fuel prices and interest rates.

For sale, 2003 Kawasaki 125. 80 MPG, $23,500, CASH ONLY. I know what I have.

Garden is almost done, just a few more plants to put in. I am not going to pay what veggies are going to cost later this year.

We aren't going to make it to 2024 elections.

Upstate NY yesterday was over 70 day time high, night time low was 36 deg F.  My basement zone is the only heat zone still on.

If this sno balls like it has the potential to, I am guessing the hate against OBiden may triple when people cannot get their good and services.  

Mid terms should be glorious (despite the Roe V Wade issue).  

I'd go even further. Supply chain issues/ product availability and sky rocketing prices for everything. James Hardie closed they Multi-Family Department. Sourcing Hardie Siding for current and future projects is just about non-existent. Some paint products, shingles, steel, appliances, etc., require huge lead times. Same with electrical panels, switch gear. On and on.

Schindler elevators just notified us last Thursday that the (2) elevator for my current project, scheduled to be delivered in early July are now early September for (1) elevator. Project was to be completed 100% end of August. Now looking at sometime late October or early November.

$5.79/gallon for home heating oil today. I do not miss my 275 gallon tank in my last house. I also had a big woodstove in the basement next to it that I burned about 5ish cord of wood each year, but I still filled the tank twice a year to for the hot water and when you needed the heat to take the chill off. I can not imagine what it will cost to heat these home around here with oil next winter. I know some families that will burn a tank every two months to keep their old house warm. Pellets have gone up and NG has gne up too, but not like oil.

I was just going on the two big basics of fuel and asphalt.

Everything else that is petrochemical related is of course fucked.  Asphalt goes directly into the shingle production as well. So that’s going to sky rocket along with road material.  

Definitely not a “new normal” I want.

Crew cab 4x4?  I will
Buy it

Build better back/ green new deal

Just great, as if we don't have enough to deal with already

It's going to be tough in trucking. We are a high revenue, low margin business. With the truck shortage for the last year and a half, equipment prices have doubled and parts are hard to find. Labor is demanding huge wages, if you can even find someone insurable. Add in dollar a mile plus fuel and my break even is huge. A lot of small and large trucking companies aren't going to survive this.

I'm still running my wood stove late nights/early mornings to take the chill out of the house. It's high 50's to low 60's when I wake up. I turned my oil burning off april 1 because I couldn't stomach paying for oil.

I'm currently sitting on about 3 cords of wood, that will get me through next winter but I will still burn 1-2 tanks of oil while I'm at work and can't feed the stove. I wont be turning the oil burner on until after Halloween, most likely closer to turkey day..

Before the rest of the country gets it’s caught up in being worried about this:

The *potential* shortage is restricted to EIA padd 1 area.

What is that?

PADD stands for petroleum administration defense districts.




I’m right on the edge of PADD 1, but actually in PADD 2.

I can see pricing from essentially the east coast, to Chicago.  As fuel is shipped both east to west, and west to east, through my area.

The further west you go, the cheaper fuel gets on the wholesale market.

Now. Who’s making money off this?

Refineries.  Refineries currently are making record profits - approximately $60 a barrel, so if it costs them ~$120bbl after transport costs, they’re selling the end product for $180/bbl. Currently.

Most refineries right now are geared for the 3:2:1 crack spread. Which means for every 3 barrels of crude oil they’re bringing in, they’re making 2 barrels of gasoline and 1 barrel of distillates (diesel / jet fuel / kerosene.)


They can retool the refinery to make 2:1:1, or 5:3:2, which is currently happening with the maintenance turn arounds and such. But it’s going to take sometime for the refineries to adjust, as well as the market to adjust.  


As for drilling - we are up 257 rigs year over year already, nearly 300 rigs, if you include Canadian drilling. Which brings us to a total of nearly 800 rigs running.  Could we be drilling more? Absolutely. But, investors are very cautious due to political winds shifting rapidly.  It’s also hard to get the supplies to drill, get the equipment out of moth ball, and also - get the crews back into gear/hired back up.  We could go back to around 1200-1300 rigs which is when we peaked in 2012-2014 iirc. I’d have to look at the data. But, under current administration… it’s going to be a tough sell to spend that level of money.


Increases in production are coming. But that’s the longest cycle. And without a solid political footing on drilling by the current administration… large producers are going to be very hesitant to drop billions into a 2-5 year drilling capex map.  


Add in the federal reserve, inflation, more shit than I care to type on my phone, as you get my point… this is economically the perfect storm for consumers.

I have an acre I mow, Ilike to keep the front of house nice with some weed and feed, one bag will do it. $78 dollars for a bag, not this year.  needed 2 gallons of sherman william paint to touch up decks, that was $125 with a 10% discount.   Cant wait to put fuel in my boat holds 80 gallons, it will be around six at my marina , Iam guessing.

Not a train guy, but had an uncle that was since they burned coal. Correct, locomotives will not run without diesel. Their fuel usage per ton / mile is quite good but like any thing else empty tanks mean the railways are idle.

What's driving the increase in PADD1? Refinery splits or are there units down?

Or are we just exporting it to Europe cause they will pay more?

Thanks, as always, for contributing your knowledge to these threads.

That would be dumb as hell.  Trucks that good will never be made again in the US.  By anyone.

It's getting hard to tell if these crisises are intentional or a result of ineptitude. They are all running together.

Let me know when a Rav4 can tow a trailer with a 65hp tractor on it.

Primarily exports from my understanding.


There is a lack of refining capacity on the east coast now.  But that doesn’t stop it being brought in from pipelines.

However, increasing exports by 600% in essentially a month, isn’t something any industry is set up for.  And that’s basically what happened.  


We are running at about 90% utilization rate of refinery capacity.  There is another 3-5% that can be realistically squeezed out.  Before we need to say “yeah we need more refining capacity.”

But the reality is we don’t have the crude capacity to justify more refineries right now.

Also, there’s Mexican refineries and other south / Central American refineries that are exporting fuel too.

Once the pipelines switch around, I’m sure it will stabilize a bit on the east coast. But just the general energy price increases are going to kill the economy.

I wouldn’t be shocked if Biden goes down in history as the worst president ever. At least that’s what it’s shaping up to be in my opinion.  Obummer at least kept things neutral.  Biden is going to probably blow by carter as the worst.

My money is on Europe. Oil companies are not going to pass on sending oil for huge profits just to keep US prices down..it’s the opposite.

I think ole Jimmy is glad he kicked cancers ass so he could see Biden in office.  In my view Biden has already taken on the mantle as the worst in history.

Jimmy was wrong about some things but he was a bright guy at least. Rickover didn't suffer idiots.  Carter was a nuke officer in the Rickover's navy.   Biden has been an idiot his whole life, now he's a senile idiot, surrounded by true believer radicals.

It's gonna get worse before it gets better.

I'm waiting for pipeline disruptions either computer distruptions or outright sabotage, lot of actors in the world that would love to see this happen

Refinery owners in the US are not exclusively US companies.

Royal Dutch shell.  
BP.
Total.

Let alone companies like marathon, pbf/husky, Valero, etc. are all publicly traded companies.

They'll be cheap... but there's just this one thing. You'll have to drive six hundred and fifty six miles to the hot dog factory and get them since the truck that brought them to the store hasn't had fuel in two weeks. And that's just the ones already made up. Once they are gone the hot dog plant won't have any meat by products to grind up to make hot dogs and baloney with since all the cows and pigs are still at the farm because those trucks haven't run since last week Tuesday.

81,000,000 totally legitimate votes says you're wrong.

Perfect time to hack pipelines for sure. Act of war probably...especially if it was traced back to Russia, which regardless of its actual source it would be "traced back" to Russia these days.

Fuck.

It's a free market, if ze Germans are paying more that's where it goes.  

The cetane must flow

We have a lot of trucks parked because of parts shortages already. Emissions in particular, fuck DPF/SCR and everything else.

Hehe, just sold off a couple project bikes, fortunately nobody was looking at them as cheap wheels, they went cheap as they are PROJECTS not currently running.  I feel putting that in the listings cut down on the usual BS.

But I just had to gas up my daily bike, it was almost $20, I still remember the pain when a $10 bill wasn't enough to fill up my tank completely.  There's a reason I'm all bike, all the time.  Mostly because it's fun, but it's for fuel cost if my wife asks.

I'm just waiting to move to our new house to get spare tires, because those ain't going to get any cheaper, and there aren't enough made for me to be confident I might not be able to find the tires I want when I need them.  Every time someone talks about shutting down "fossil fuels" I think about all the shit we use that ISN'T fuel that depends on oil.  Best thing is all the computer world that's into green shit, but always upgrading their computers yearly, or don't realize otherwise how much we depend on oils.  And I'm seriously looking at solar/battery setups for the new place, because it's cool, and I think we'd save money long term.  Doesn't mean I don't look at the whole situation.

Or nut coal

There is a real hesitance to invest full bore right now.  But even if they doubled US rig count, people and parts wouldn’t allow it right now.  

There is going to be a recession with inflation in food and fuel not being effected do to supply constraints.  Not going to be fun around Thanksgiving and going to straight up suck for Christmas. If the Ukrainian food/fertilizer dooms day comes true we can add famine conditions in parts of the world.

What’s nut coal?

And even if the control systems of any business are airgapped, or not compromised for whatever reason, just attack the payment systems, inventory control, or any part of a business to get them to shut down.  Not like we haven't seen it recently with meat processors, or even oil pipelines...

I think you're right about this.

I've got to till up more grass and plant more food.

Is it mainly the distillates that get exported? I thought gasoline has a relatively brief shelf life.

From a non expert perspective gasoline stores better than diesel these days, or maybe diesel fuel systems are just more sensitive

The 10% number is a government number. The 20% is a reality number. Which one is the truth if you had to guess?

I think you are a little behind the times. I am pretty sure NY banned new NG connections a few years ago. That was the solution to not having enough NG pipelines.

$4.40 for 87 at the local gas station.  $5.07 for 93.

You don’t have an electric tractor, combine etc?

I think the hogs are too smart for that.