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Posted: 7/31/2020 1:50:02 PM EDT
[#1]
Looks like today is a sell the news day. Lots of red.
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Posted: 7/31/2020 2:54:00 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Looks like today is a sell the news day. Lots of red. Even split (red/green), its Christmas in July! 
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Posted: 7/31/2020 3:58:54 PM EDT
[#3]
Aapl setting to close up 10.5%. Wow.
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Posted: 7/31/2020 4:09:08 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Aapl setting to close up 10.5%. Wow. That’s pop bottles returns! |
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Posted: 7/31/2020 8:28:37 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Large cap agressive growth, not selling what I buy now for 20 years. Remember I’m long term retail investor, not a trader. I’ll have a talk with money mgmt firm about how much tech I have and how they will best invest it for me. Otherwise the auto buy happens weekly as always. I just gotta figure out what to do with my new found cash. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Maybe the guy that morgaged his house will go all in and stop trying to time the market. Oh wait, he said he doesn't time the market. You don't have to look hard to find great companies yielding those kinds of numbers. His maneuver only looks smart if you understand money.  How do banks make money? Leverage. These are golden times to make money. Tech is blowing up. We lost 30% on indicies to quickly recover in a matter of weeks. Those scared to buy during the crash are kicking themselves. Those sitting on cash missed out on the opportunity of a life time and continue to lose money everyday waiting on the next crash they so firmly believe is coming. Don’t mix emotions and money. It’s just business. So where are you putting your money, we're arguably buying in at the top of a market that is shaky at best. I'm not all cash but I did move to more cash, we're talking 5% to 10% so I'm looking for value or under valued....there may be some small cap opportunity but that is going to be a roller coaster in the near term  Large cap agressive growth, not selling what I buy now for 20 years. Remember I’m long term retail investor, not a trader. I’ll have a talk with money mgmt firm about how much tech I have and how they will best invest it for me. Otherwise the auto buy happens weekly as always. I just gotta figure out what to do with my new found cash. Slightly different time horizons....for me, I would like 10-12, but I could do 15-17 years. That said the bulk of what is in the market is in Tech, biotech/pharma, large cap and large cap growth. |
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Posted: 7/31/2020 9:04:58 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Slightly different time horizons....for me, I would like 10-12, but I could do 15-17 years. That said the bulk of what is in the market is in Tech, biotech/pharma, large cap and large cap growth. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Maybe the guy that morgaged his house will go all in and stop trying to time the market. Oh wait, he said he doesn't time the market. You don't have to look hard to find great companies yielding those kinds of numbers. His maneuver only looks smart if you understand money. How do banks make money? Leverage. These are golden times to make money. Tech is blowing up. We lost 30% on indicies to quickly recover in a matter of weeks. Those scared to buy during the crash are kicking themselves. Those sitting on cash missed out on the opportunity of a life time and continue to lose money everyday waiting on the next crash they so firmly believe is coming. Don’t mix emotions and money. It’s just business. So where are you putting your money, we're arguably buying in at the top of a market that is shaky at best. I'm not all cash but I did move to more cash, we're talking 5% to 10% so I'm looking for value or under valued....there may be some small cap opportunity but that is going to be a roller coaster in the near term Large cap agressive growth, not selling what I buy now for 20 years. Remember I’m long term retail investor, not a trader. I’ll have a talk with money mgmt firm about how much tech I have and how they will best invest it for me. Otherwise the auto buy happens weekly as always. I just gotta figure out what to do with my new found cash. Slightly different time horizons....for me, I would like 10-12, but I could do 15-17 years. That said the bulk of what is in the market is in Tech, biotech/pharma, large cap and large cap growth. Well I want to be clear. When I retire in 5 years I won’t sell everything to income low risk products. It’s a rolling rebalance selling stocks that I’ve held for 20-30 years into safe income stuff. Oh aapl how I love thee. So the long term growth stuff I’ve held long term rolls into income stuff year by year. That means what I buy this year won’t be sold for 20 years even though I’m retiring in 5. Even in retirement you need growth. The disagreement comes from the split of growth to stable income ratio/balance. That still depend on income goals and risk tolerance. You don’t just move all growth to all income/cap preservation. The growth feeds the income products. Over time risk goes down. But it’s not an all or nothing deal. It’s a constant rebalance. This is what the target date funds do, but imho they’re too conservative. Example I’m retiring at 55. The brokerage stuff will feed a rolling rebalance to income stuff, but 401k, 457, ira will stay 100% growth because I won’t be selling that for 10 years. This is why tax planning/minimization and bracket filling needs professional advice. |
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Posted: 7/31/2020 9:33:16 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Well I want to be clear. When I retire in 5 years I won’t sell everything to income low risk products. It’s a rolling rebalance selling stocks that I’ve held for 20-30 years into safe income stuff. Oh aapl how I love thee. So the long term growth stuff I’ve held long term rolls into income stuff year by year. That means what I buy this year won’t be sold for 20 years even though I’m retiring in 5. Even in retirement you need growth. The disagreement comes from the split of growth to stable income ratio/balance. That still depend on income goals and risk tolerance. You don’t just move all growth to all income/cap preservation. The growth feeds the income products. Over time risk goes down. But it’s not an all or nothing deal. It’s a constant rebalance. This is what the target date funds do, but imho they’re too conservative. Example I’m retiring at 55. The brokerage stuff will feed a rolling rebalance to income stuff, but 401k, 457, ira will stay 100% growth because I won’t be selling that for 10 years. This is why tax planning/minimization and bracket filling needs professional advice. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Maybe the guy that morgaged his house will go all in and stop trying to time the market. Oh wait, he said he doesn't time the market. You don't have to look hard to find great companies yielding those kinds of numbers. His maneuver only looks smart if you understand money. How do banks make money? Leverage. These are golden times to make money. Tech is blowing up. We lost 30% on indicies to quickly recover in a matter of weeks. Those scared to buy during the crash are kicking themselves. Those sitting on cash missed out on the opportunity of a life time and continue to lose money everyday waiting on the next crash they so firmly believe is coming. Don’t mix emotions and money. It’s just business. So where are you putting your money, we're arguably buying in at the top of a market that is shaky at best. I'm not all cash but I did move to more cash, we're talking 5% to 10% so I'm looking for value or under valued....there may be some small cap opportunity but that is going to be a roller coaster in the near term Large cap agressive growth, not selling what I buy now for 20 years. Remember I’m long term retail investor, not a trader. I’ll have a talk with money mgmt firm about how much tech I have and how they will best invest it for me. Otherwise the auto buy happens weekly as always. I just gotta figure out what to do with my new found cash. Slightly different time horizons....for me, I would like 10-12, but I could do 15-17 years. That said the bulk of what is in the market is in Tech, biotech/pharma, large cap and large cap growth. Well I want to be clear. When I retire in 5 years I won’t sell everything to income low risk products. It’s a rolling rebalance selling stocks that I’ve held for 20-30 years into safe income stuff. Oh aapl how I love thee. So the long term growth stuff I’ve held long term rolls into income stuff year by year. That means what I buy this year won’t be sold for 20 years even though I’m retiring in 5. Even in retirement you need growth. The disagreement comes from the split of growth to stable income ratio/balance. That still depend on income goals and risk tolerance. You don’t just move all growth to all income/cap preservation. The growth feeds the income products. Over time risk goes down. But it’s not an all or nothing deal. It’s a constant rebalance. This is what the target date funds do, but imho they’re too conservative. Example I’m retiring at 55. The brokerage stuff will feed a rolling rebalance to income stuff, but 401k, 457, ira will stay 100% growth because I won’t be selling that for 10 years. This is why tax planning/minimization and bracket filling needs professional advice. That's where I screwed up most of my investments are in tax deferred, this should be a lesson to all the guys under 30. Keep a mix of taxable and tax deferred. |
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Posted: 7/31/2020 10:02:27 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That's where I screwed up most of my investments are in tax deferred, this should be a lesson to all the guys under 30. Keep a mix of taxable and tax deferred. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Maybe the guy that morgaged his house will go all in and stop trying to time the market. Oh wait, he said he doesn't time the market. You don't have to look hard to find great companies yielding those kinds of numbers. His maneuver only looks smart if you understand money. How do banks make money? Leverage. These are golden times to make money. Tech is blowing up. We lost 30% on indicies to quickly recover in a matter of weeks. Those scared to buy during the crash are kicking themselves. Those sitting on cash missed out on the opportunity of a life time and continue to lose money everyday waiting on the next crash they so firmly believe is coming. Don’t mix emotions and money. It’s just business. So where are you putting your money, we're arguably buying in at the top of a market that is shaky at best. I'm not all cash but I did move to more cash, we're talking 5% to 10% so I'm looking for value or under valued....there may be some small cap opportunity but that is going to be a roller coaster in the near term Large cap agressive growth, not selling what I buy now for 20 years. Remember I’m long term retail investor, not a trader. I’ll have a talk with money mgmt firm about how much tech I have and how they will best invest it for me. Otherwise the auto buy happens weekly as always. I just gotta figure out what to do with my new found cash. Slightly different time horizons....for me, I would like 10-12, but I could do 15-17 years. That said the bulk of what is in the market is in Tech, biotech/pharma, large cap and large cap growth. Well I want to be clear. When I retire in 5 years I won’t sell everything to income low risk products. It’s a rolling rebalance selling stocks that I’ve held for 20-30 years into safe income stuff. Oh aapl how I love thee. So the long term growth stuff I’ve held long term rolls into income stuff year by year. That means what I buy this year won’t be sold for 20 years even though I’m retiring in 5. Even in retirement you need growth. The disagreement comes from the split of growth to stable income ratio/balance. That still depend on income goals and risk tolerance. You don’t just move all growth to all income/cap preservation. The growth feeds the income products. Over time risk goes down. But it’s not an all or nothing deal. It’s a constant rebalance. This is what the target date funds do, but imho they’re too conservative. Example I’m retiring at 55. The brokerage stuff will feed a rolling rebalance to income stuff, but 401k, 457, ira will stay 100% growth because I won’t be selling that for 10 years. This is why tax planning/minimization and bracket filling needs professional advice. That's where I screwed up most of my investments are in tax deferred, this should be a lesson to all the guys under 30. Keep a mix of taxable and tax deferred. The tax implications get real complicated real fast depending on your goals, age you want to stop working, income requirements, etc. no fucking way could I do it on my own. There is no one size fits all. Fuck, I think I understand tax code pretty well but my money firm CPA has me doing stuff that doesn’t make sense, especially the bracket filling stuff and gain/loss carryover. But I pay them to minimize taxes and financial plan so I follow their direction and try to understand. Taxes are money that goes poof. Gone. Every year. For young guys at least do 401k up to company match, free money and lower taxable income...no brainer. Then the tax direction gets complicated and should be tailored to goals/income, etc. it’s when you reach “I don’t know what to do with my money” that a fee based advisor should be involved. At least get a plan. |
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Posted: 8/1/2020 1:00:52 AM EDT
[#9]
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Posted: 8/3/2020 10:23:51 AM EDT
[#10]
Aapl 441. Wow. Nasdaq on pace for another record creeping up to 11k
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Posted: 8/3/2020 2:35:24 PM EDT
[#11]
Sp500 at 3300. Almost fully recovered. Run bull!
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Posted: 8/3/2020 7:44:31 PM EDT
[#12]
Nice day for AAPL, MSFT, ZM, NVDA, NVAX, LVGO, NIO, CHGG, DOCU, and ROKU.
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Posted: 8/3/2020 7:52:14 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Nice day for AAPL, MSFT, ZM, NVDA, NVAX, LVGO, NIO, CHGG, DOCU, and ROKU. But the next crash is just around the corner, market is over priced, I’m going to wait to “get back in” Dumbasses. You missed the historic buy opportunity of a lifetime based on emotion. Never mix emotions and money. |
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Posted: 8/3/2020 7:59:27 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted: But the next crash is just around the corner, market is over priced, I’m going to wait to “get back in” Dumbasses. You missed the historic buy opportunity of a lifetime based on emotion. Never mix emotions and money. I still think you will get another one soon. I haven't seen the housing market be as crazy as it is since 2009. Prices shot up. People fighting over new houses. So many bubbles. |
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Posted: 8/3/2020 8:05:07 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I still think you will get another one soon. The best part about our markets is that you can make money on the way up, and on the way down. |
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Posted: 8/3/2020 8:05:27 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted: But the next crash is just around the corner, market is over priced, I’m going to wait to “get back in” Dumbasses. You missed the historic buy opportunity of a lifetime based on emotion. Never mix emotions and money. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Nice day for AAPL, MSFT, ZM, NVDA, NVAX, LVGO, NIO, CHGG, DOCU, and ROKU. But the next crash is just around the corner, market is over priced, I’m going to wait to “get back in” Dumbasses. You missed the historic buy opportunity of a lifetime based on emotion. Never mix emotions and money.  I don’t think this is going to age well.
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Posted: 8/3/2020 8:06:01 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The best part about our markets is that you can make money on the way up, and on the way down. Yes. I edited my post as to why I think it will not be good soon. |
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Posted: 8/3/2020 8:16:26 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Yes. I edited my post as to why I think it will not be good soon. I’m not claiming to have any answers, I’m just along for the ride. But I also don’t think I’ve seen you be right once this whole thread. Millenials are the largest generation the world has ever seen, and they want houses. And all the boomers and beyond are living longer than ever. My personal opinion is we haven’t seen shit for housing prices yet. They may come down some when people get back to listing regularly and the inventory isn’t AS dried up as it is right now. But overall, supply isn’t going to catch up with demand anytime soon, if ever. |
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Posted: 8/3/2020 8:17:17 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Yes. I edited my post as to why I think it will not be good soon. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: The best part about our markets is that you can make money on the way up, and on the way down. Yes. I edited my post as to why I think it will not be good soon. Bubbles everywhere. There is an entire generation of asset managers who only think stonks only go up.  Attached File |
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Posted: 8/3/2020 8:18:50 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I’m not claiming to have any answers, I’m just along for the ride. But I also don’t think I’ve seen you be right once this whole thread. Millenials are the largest generation the world has ever seen, and they want houses. And all the boomers and beyond are living longer than ever. My personal opinion is we haven’t seen shit for housing prices yet. They may come down some when people get back to listing regularly and the inventory isn’t AS dried up as it is right now. But overall, supply isn’t going to catch up with demand anytime soon, if ever. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Yes. I edited my post as to why I think it will not be good soon. I’m not claiming to have any answers, I’m just along for the ride. But I also don’t think I’ve seen you be right once this whole thread. Millenials are the largest generation the world has ever seen, and they want houses. And all the boomers and beyond are living longer than ever. My personal opinion is we haven’t seen shit for housing prices yet. They may come down some when people get back to listing regularly and the inventory isn’t AS dried up as it is right now. But overall, supply isn’t going to catch up with demand anytime soon, if ever. Millennials also have the largest amount of college debt on record. But no worries, money printer go brrrr. I can weigh in on this. I am a millennial. |
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Posted: 8/3/2020 8:40:11 PM EDT
[#21]
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Posted: 8/3/2020 8:42:00 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Millennials also have the largest amount of college debt on record. But no worries, money printer go brrrr. I can weigh in on this. I am a millennial. What percentage of millenials own that debt? Also a millenial. No student loan debt. |
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Posted: 8/3/2020 8:42:10 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted: But the next crash is just around the corner, market is over priced, I’m going to wait to “get back in” Dumbasses. You missed the historic buy opportunity of a lifetime based on emotion. Never mix emotions and money. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Nice day for AAPL, MSFT, ZM, NVDA, NVAX, LVGO, NIO, CHGG, DOCU, and ROKU. But the next crash is just around the corner, market is over priced, I’m going to wait to “get back in” Dumbasses. You missed the historic buy opportunity of a lifetime based on emotion. Never mix emotions and money. Hey Dumbass, did you ever think some people are financial set, and they don't need to refi their house to invest in the Ponzi? |
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Posted: 8/3/2020 8:54:31 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted: What percentage of millenials own that debt? Also a millenial. No student loan debt. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Millennials also have the largest amount of college debt on record. But no worries, money printer go brrrr. I can weigh in on this. I am a millennial. What percentage of millenials own that debt? Also a millenial. No student loan debt. Enough that it is a problem. It grew from 50% for early millennials to over 60% for the young-ins.  Attached FileI got my BS and MS with no debt. Work paid for most of my certification. |
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Posted: 8/3/2020 8:59:19 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Hey Dumbass, did you ever think some people are financial set, and they don't need to refi their house to invest in the Ponzi? Shit, those people aren't serious investors. To them, stocks are just another diversification and it's not going to make or break em. I bet they sit up and like to play during times like these tho. |
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Posted: 8/3/2020 9:00:01 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Hey Dumbass, did you ever think some people are financial set, and they don't need to refi their house to invest in the Ponzi? Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Nice day for AAPL, MSFT, ZM, NVDA, NVAX, LVGO, NIO, CHGG, DOCU, and ROKU. But the next crash is just around the corner, market is over priced, I’m going to wait to “get back in” Dumbasses. You missed the historic buy opportunity of a lifetime based on emotion. Never mix emotions and money. Hey Dumbass, did you ever think some people are financial set, and they don't need to refi their house to invest in the Ponzi? Meh. I always want more. I have my goals and I’ll use the free money. I could stop working today. But I want more. |
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Posted: 8/3/2020 9:07:14 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I’m not claiming to have any answers, I’m just along for the ride. But I also don’t think I’ve seen you be right once this whole thread. Millenials are the largest generation the world has ever seen, and they want houses. And all the boomers and beyond are living longer than ever. My personal opinion is we haven’t seen shit for housing prices yet. They may come down some when people get back to listing regularly and the inventory isn’t AS dried up as it is right now. But overall, supply isn’t going to catch up with demand anytime soon, if ever. I build and sell houses. I hope I'm wrong. But I've seen this before. And I'm seeing a lot of supply hitting the market. I'll admit I didn't think the FED would go completely money printer go, and crazy employment benefits. But here we are. And that looks like it's coming to an end. We will see what happens. |
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Posted: 8/3/2020 9:15:21 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I build and sell houses. I hope I'm wrong. But I've seen this before. And I'm seeing a lot of supply hitting the market. I'll admit I didn't think the FED would go completely money printer go, and crazy employment benefits. But here we are. And that looks like it's coming to an end. We will see what happens. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I’m not claiming to have any answers, I’m just along for the ride. But I also don’t think I’ve seen you be right once this whole thread. Millenials are the largest generation the world has ever seen, and they want houses. And all the boomers and beyond are living longer than ever. My personal opinion is we haven’t seen shit for housing prices yet. They may come down some when people get back to listing regularly and the inventory isn’t AS dried up as it is right now. But overall, supply isn’t going to catch up with demand anytime soon, if ever. I build and sell houses. I hope I'm wrong. But I've seen this before. And I'm seeing a lot of supply hitting the market. I'll admit I didn't think the FED would go completely money printer go, and crazy employment benefits. But here we are. And that looks like it's coming to an end. We will see what happens. Given your line of work what does supply/demand look like? Seems like undersupply and over demand. Mortgage rates at historic lows driving that. I member 2008-2012. Developers couldn’t give homes away, but they were too deep into capital. They were stuck. I bought fall 2011.
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Posted: 8/3/2020 9:19:28 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Enough that it is a problem. It grew from 50% for early millennials to over 60% for the young-ins. https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/200878/1062B2D8-6CEB-486F-B0DC-CDC4F0EF4D50_jpe-1531850.JPG I got my BS and MS with no debt. Work paid for most of my certification. Don’t know if it’s a coincidence or if you got that chart from this same article. But before that chart is referenced, a few paragraphs up there is this:  Attached FileIf you take the 15m+8m(assuming under age 24 is a millennial, I don’t know where the line is drawn), even if assuming they missed a couple million in their data, that means hardly 1/4 of the 84+ million millennials have that debt. So 3/4 of the largest generation isn’t hampered by student loan debt at all, and averaged out amongst the 1/4 that do, their debt is $33k. Big fucking whoop. Student loan debt crisis is a concern manufactured by those who had to end the party and go to work and don’t want to come to grips with that reality. Nevermind the housing market isn’t composed of simply millennials, it is already crowded by all the generations before. Nevermind the vast majority of homes were built for/by the baby boomer generation or before. Not only will homes be in short supply, non-aged (even if just in appearance) homes ready to be moved into will be at a premium. So the age of those homes and the millennials thirst for nice and appealing things will nearly perpetually drive growth in HD. Just look at what just happened. The world was supposed to have just ended and all everybody did was buy out TP and fix up their houses. What are your degrees in? Just curious. |
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Posted: 8/3/2020 9:21:31 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Given your line of work what does supply/demand look like? Seems like undersupply and over demand. Mortgage rates at historic lows driving that. I member 2008-2012. Developers couldn’t give homes away, but they were too deep into capital. They were stuck. I bought fall 2011. I don't think we are there yet. But I've seen prices sky rocket. I had people fighting over the last house we put on the market. And we had to stop building more because of Corona. There was demand waiting to hit the market while houses being built slowed down. Now, I see an entire neighborhood popping up next to my neighborhood. Every where I look new houses are being built. Now the problem is the jobs market here isn't that big. I'm not sure how these people are going to pay for them. And that's when the problem starts. |
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Posted: 8/3/2020 9:26:59 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I build and sell houses. I hope I'm wrong. But I've seen this before. And I'm seeing a lot of supply hitting the market. I'll admit I didn't think the FED would go completely money printer go, and crazy employment benefits. But here we are. And that looks like it's coming to an end. We will see what happens. What part of Somalia are you seeing an oversupply of new houses in? Serious question, though, if you don’t mind answering, where are you? I’m certain this is all regionally dependent to a degree. Nobody around here is building homes worth less that $400,000, and most millennials, even those without student loan debt, aren’t jumping right into that. The majority of the first millennials are just getting to their mid thirties where they’d even be looking at those second/third or forever homes. 
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Posted: 8/3/2020 9:34:09 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I don't think we are there yet. But I've seen prices sky rocket. I had people fighting over the last house we put on the market. And we had to stop building more because of Corona. There was demand waiting to hit the market while houses being built slowed down. Now, I see an entire neighborhood popping up next to my neighborhood. Every where I look new houses are being built. Now the problem is the jobs market here isn't that big. I'm not sure how these people are going to pay for them. And that's when the problem starts. Same issue here in my area of WV. Very few high paying jobs, and yet houses stay on the market just a few days before being sold. A nice quality house here would cost $225k, and that is newish and move-in ready. There are a ton of $100k houses that need $50k worth of work before they could be livable. Around 15 minutes away, where my sister lives, there are brand new subdivisions popping up all over the place and those houses are $300k. Keep in mind, most of the jobs here are in the medical field or service industry, very few blue collar factory jobs left here. Who is buying all of these houses, I have no idea. |
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Posted: 8/3/2020 9:34:15 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted: What part of Somalia are you seeing an oversupply of new houses in? Serious question, though, if you don’t mind answering, where are you? I’m certain this is all regionally dependent to a degree. Nobody around here is building homes worth less that $400,000, and most millennials, even those without student loan debt, aren’t jumping right into that. The majority of the first millennials are just getting to their mid thirties where they’d even be looking at those second/third or forever homes. Coast of MS. Dont move here it's awful. Last house I sold was 1415 Sqft. 172k. It's in a swamp and flood zone but built high enough to meet FEMA flood requirements. |
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Posted: 8/3/2020 9:35:49 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Same issue here in my area of WV. Very few high paying jobs, and yet houses stay on the market just a few days before being sold. A nice quality house here would cost $225k, and that is newish and move-in ready. There are a ton of $100k houses that need $50k worth of work before they could be livable. Around 15 minutes away, where my sister lives, there are brand new subdivisions popping up all over the place and those houses are $300k. Keep in mind, most of the jobs here are in the medical field or service industry, very few blue collar factory jobs left here. Who is buying all of these houses, I have no idea. I'm hitting the low end new house market here with my houses. I would much rather build a bunch of these than have to deal with custom home builds. |
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Posted: 8/3/2020 9:38:24 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I don't think we are there yet. But I've seen prices sky rocket. I had people fighting over the last house we put on the market. And we had to stop building more because of Corona. There was demand waiting to hit the market while houses being built slowed down. Now, I see an entire neighborhood popping up next to my neighborhood. Every where I look new houses are being built. Now the problem is the jobs market here isn't that big. I'm not sure how these people are going to pay for them. And that's when the problem starts. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Given your line of work what does supply/demand look like? Seems like undersupply and over demand. Mortgage rates at historic lows driving that. I member 2008-2012. Developers couldn’t give homes away, but they were too deep into capital. They were stuck. I bought fall 2011. I don't think we are there yet. But I've seen prices sky rocket. I had people fighting over the last house we put on the market. And we had to stop building more because of Corona. There was demand waiting to hit the market while houses being built slowed down. Now, I see an entire neighborhood popping up next to my neighborhood. Every where I look new houses are being built. Now the problem is the jobs market here isn't that big. I'm not sure how these people are going to pay for them. And that's when the problem starts. I’ve been following the new home building news. I think there is even an index for that. Still seems strong, new housing starts. |
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Posted: 8/3/2020 9:45:32 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That's where I screwed up most of my investments are in tax deferred, this should be a lesson to all the guys under 30. Keep a mix of taxable and tax deferred. I say do ALL tax deferred if you can. Especially the ROTH. If you put $6k a year in from 25-50 you have $150k in Basis you can withdrawal from 50-59.5 not one red cent owed in taxes. $300k if you marry someone who does similar. Tax deferred is a whole lot simpler when buy and sell within and don’t have to worry about implications of dividends and capital gains in the account. if your employer allows mega back door roth (after tax 401k with in service conversions) you can sneak up to another $30k a year into your Roth IRA!!!! So with that option available I’d never use an taxable account. Consider too your tax advantages retirement accounts are not counted against you come college (FAFSA) time. |
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Posted: 8/3/2020 9:52:05 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I’ve been following the new home building news. I think there is even an index for that. Still seems strong, new housing starts. I'm going to keep building. But I've had the bottom fall out before and this is what it was like before that. |
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Posted: 8/3/2020 9:57:33 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'm going to keep building. But I've had the bottom fall out before and this is what it was like before that. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I’ve been following the new home building news. I think there is even an index for that. Still seems strong, new housing starts. I'm going to keep building. But I've had the bottom fall out before and this is what it was like before that. The sun is shining so make hay. I’m just trying to take advantage of opportunity. |
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Posted: 8/3/2020 10:03:06 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The sun is shining so make hay. I’m just trying to take advantage of opportunity. I'm going to build until I can't sell and then keep building rentals.
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Posted: 8/3/2020 10:08:02 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'm going to build until I can't sell and then keep building rentals. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: The sun is shining so make hay. I’m just trying to take advantage of opportunity. I'm going to build until I can't sell and then keep building rentals. I think we both get risk. No guts, no glory. |
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Posted: 8/3/2020 10:28:58 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Don’t know if it’s a coincidence or if you got that chart from this same article. But before that chart is referenced, a few paragraphs up there is this: https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/252780/0065D2AC-1313-41AE-9446-9A9DB9543DA9_jpe-1531874.JPG If you take the 15m+8m(assuming under age 24 is a millennial, I don’t know where the line is drawn), even if assuming they missed a couple million in their data, that means hardly 1/4 of the 84+ million millennials have that debt. So 3/4 of the largest generation isn’t hampered by student loan debt at all, and averaged out amongst the 1/4 that do, their debt is $33k. Big fucking whoop. Student loan debt crisis is a concern manufactured by those who had to end the party and go to work and don’t want to come to grips with that reality. Nevermind the housing market isn’t composed of simply millennials, it is already crowded by all the generations before. Nevermind the vast majority of homes were built for/by the baby boomer generation or before. Not only will homes be in short supply, non-aged (even if just in appearance) homes ready to be moved into will be at a premium. So the age of those homes and the millennials thirst for nice and appealing things will nearly perpetually drive growth in HD. Just look at what just happened. The world was supposed to have just ended and all everybody did was buy out TP and fix up their houses. What are your degrees in? Just curious. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Enough that it is a problem. It grew from 50% for early millennials to over 60% for the young-ins. https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/200878/1062B2D8-6CEB-486F-B0DC-CDC4F0EF4D50_jpe-1531850.JPG I got my BS and MS with no debt. Work paid for most of my certification. Don’t know if it’s a coincidence or if you got that chart from this same article. But before that chart is referenced, a few paragraphs up there is this: https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/252780/0065D2AC-1313-41AE-9446-9A9DB9543DA9_jpe-1531874.JPG If you take the 15m+8m(assuming under age 24 is a millennial, I don’t know where the line is drawn), even if assuming they missed a couple million in their data, that means hardly 1/4 of the 84+ million millennials have that debt. So 3/4 of the largest generation isn’t hampered by student loan debt at all, and averaged out amongst the 1/4 that do, their debt is $33k. Big fucking whoop. Student loan debt crisis is a concern manufactured by those who had to end the party and go to work and don’t want to come to grips with that reality. Nevermind the housing market isn’t composed of simply millennials, it is already crowded by all the generations before. Nevermind the vast majority of homes were built for/by the baby boomer generation or before. Not only will homes be in short supply, non-aged (even if just in appearance) homes ready to be moved into will be at a premium. So the age of those homes and the millennials thirst for nice and appealing things will nearly perpetually drive growth in HD. Just look at what just happened. The world was supposed to have just ended and all everybody did was buy out TP and fix up their houses. What are your degrees in? Just curious. I have degrees in mathematics and work in finance. As for the world ending and everything seeming to look okay, there is an interesting lagging effect in how long it takes the iceberg to surface. Look at 13 years ago today. The Bear Stearns story was just unfolding. |
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Posted: 8/3/2020 10:32:20 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Coast of MS. Dont move here it's awful. Last house I sold was 1415 Sqft. 172k. It's in a swamp and flood zone but built high enough to meet FEMA flood requirements. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: What part of Somalia are you seeing an oversupply of new houses in? Serious question, though, if you don’t mind answering, where are you? I’m certain this is all regionally dependent to a degree. Nobody around here is building homes worth less that $400,000, and most millennials, even those without student loan debt, aren’t jumping right into that. The majority of the first millennials are just getting to their mid thirties where they’d even be looking at those second/third or forever homes. Coast of MS. Dont move here it's awful. Last house I sold was 1415 Sqft. 172k. It's in a swamp and flood zone but built high enough to meet FEMA flood requirements. I've lived on the West Coast. I don't think $172K would even get you a lot these days. 
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Posted: 8/3/2020 11:04:30 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I've lived on the West Coast. I don't think $172K would even get you a lot these days. Nope. That's probably why people are moving here. They will want to turn it into the glorious mecca they left though.  |
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Posted: 8/4/2020 9:00:24 AM EDT
[#44]
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Posted: 8/4/2020 9:23:59 AM EDT
[#45]
I build and flip a house or two a year as a hobby
Building a new raised ranch on a busy road It's framed with windows, no siding and just started rough in electric, plumbing and heat Sold at over $300,000 and the buyers want to add $20-$30,000 in upgraded cabinets, flooring and trim Last one sold a year ago at $272,000 on a better road and lot, same town Crazy I'm actually considering listing a couple of my 4 families. The prices are too stupid not to cash in on |
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Posted: 8/4/2020 9:36:44 AM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I build and flip a house or two a year as a hobby Building a new raised ranch on a busy road It's framed with windows, no siding and just started rough in electric, plumbing and heat Sold at over $300,000 and the buyers want to add $20-$30,000 in upgraded cabinets, flooring and trim Last one sold a year ago at $272,000 on a better road and lot, same town Crazy I'm actually considering listing a couple of my 4 families. The prices are too stupid not to cash in on Yes. I'm about to sell some rentals. Had to wait for stupid government thing to end to get people out. |
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Posted: 8/4/2020 10:09:32 AM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I build and flip a house or two a year as a hobby Building a new raised ranch on a busy road It's framed with windows, no siding and just started rough in electric, plumbing and heat Sold at over $300,000 and the buyers want to add $20-$30,000 in upgraded cabinets, flooring and trim Last one sold a year ago at $272,000 on a better road and lot, same town Crazy I'm actually considering listing a couple of my 4 families. The prices are too stupid not to cash in on Let me guess -- they wanted it more "open concept" so they wanted to knock out some walls. The man catches butterflies for a living and the woman paints smiley faces on acorns to sell on Etsy, and they have a budget of $1.2-million. |
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Posted: 8/4/2020 10:49:23 AM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Let me guess -- they wanted it more "open concept" so they wanted to knock out some walls. The man catches butterflies for a living and the woman paints smiley faces on acorns to sell on Etsy, and they have a budget of $1.2-million. Just about. Moving from the city to the country and want cherry cabinets, crown molding, chair rail in the dining room and stone versus ceramic tile in the master bath Plus they got a credit for my basic stainless appliances so they can get their own gas stove and cabinet depth fridge |
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Posted: 8/4/2020 11:49:24 AM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I’m not claiming to have any answers, I’m just along for the ride. But I also don’t think I’ve seen you be right once this whole thread. Millenials are the largest generation the world has ever seen, and they want houses. And all the boomers and beyond are living longer than ever. My personal opinion is we haven’t seen shit for housing prices yet. They may come down some when people get back to listing regularly and the inventory isn’t AS dried up as it is right now. But overall, supply isn’t going to catch up with demand anytime soon, if ever. IDK, a good friend of mine is a VP for a construction/development company in my area. At least here, the trend was all about vertical development with condos/apartments. At least before corona, millennial's wanted fuck-all to do with a house. Minimal upkeep and they could walk/bike/whatever to work and play. That may have changed now that they got a taste of being shut in their 1000 sqft box in the sky for 3 months. |
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Posted: 8/4/2020 11:58:49 AM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It isn't just one manufactured by those who had to end the party. The inflationary track from the BLS shows college costs are on an unsustainable path and taking a larger bite out of the economy. Even those not taking loans may have parents that are hemorrhaging money for college that could be spent elsewhere. I have degrees in mathematics and work in finance. As for the world ending and everything seeming to look okay, there is an interesting lagging effect in how long it takes the iceberg to surface. Look at 13 years ago today. The Bear Stearns story was just unfolding. I think it was a decade or so ago you could get a 4 year degree from the local university for around 20 some thousand? Basically a new compact car. Not that big of a deal. Now that same school is closer to 45,000 over the span of a decade. With bottomless student loans available and no underwriting, or bankruptcy protection a lot of kids are going to be setting themselves up for failure. Granted they need to read the terms but college is pushed so damn hard anynore that kidss feel like they have to or they're going to work at McDonald's for the rest of their life. At some point something is going to have to give, and I doubt its going to be the colleges. |
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