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Posted: 10/9/2018 11:09:00 PM EDT
What if the 1917 revolution would have failed? What would be possible world status if the Romanovs had remained in power and Russia had never been the asshole of the east for the last 100 years?
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Days of the Monarchy were over, they would have lasted maybe another decade.
What would be interesting would be the impacts on Germany. Would the treaty of Versailles been as punitive? without the threat of communism, would the Nazis have risen to power? |
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They were assholes under the czars, too.
Nothing would have changed, except for the global support they got from communists. |
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Go further back. What if that dude hadn't shot that other dude.
No WWI. No discontent. No revolution. No Soviet Russia. No dirt poor Germans. No dickhead art student corporal. No Nazis. One bullet changed world history in ridiculously profound ways. |
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Whether it be ancient hordes of knights and their clans, Czars, Communists, or Cleptocrats, Russia has and will always suffer from this reality:
Lack of access to the sea, with no land borders to protect her from invasion, and an expansion-contraction cycle of security apparatus for the periphery, while the interior suffers economically. It's way too big of a territory to have one political entity over it because it can never support itself. Being frozen almost year-round only adds the final nail to that geopolitical coffin. |
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Wow...
So, a Russia that doesn’t war with itself, and is able to occupy Eastern Europe decades earlier? A Russia with no ideological crutch causing it to look global and support only Leftist causes, often outside of its own regional interests? A Russia successfully able to fight off Communism even as its perverse ideology pervades in Central Europe? I think I’ll take history as we know it. Too many really shitty alternate outcomes. |
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Go further back. What if that dude hadn't shot that other dude. No WWI. No discontent. No revolution. No Soviet Russia. No dirt poor Germans. No dickhead art student corporal. No Nazis. One bullet changed world history in ridiculously profound ways. View Quote |
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Whether it be ancient hordes of knights and their clans, Czars, Communists, or Cleptocrats, Russia has and will always suffer from this reality: Lack of access to the sea, with no land borders to protect her from invasion, and an expansion-contraction cycle of security apparatus for the periphery, while the interior suffers economically. It's way too big of a territory to have one political entity over it because it can never support itself. Being frozen almost year-round only adds the final nail to that geopolitical coffin. View Quote Odessa is a great port. So is St Petersburg. Then they had Crimea. Russia’s problem is that Russia can’t live beside neighbors it can’t bully. This drives the expansion, and is self-inflicted. |
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Quoted: What forces this expansion cycle? Odessa is a great port. So is St Petersburg. Then they had Crimea. Russia’s problem is that Russia can’t live beside neighbors it can’t bully. This drives the expansion, and is self-inflicted. View Quote Communism in Eastern Europe post WW2 has fuck all to do with spreading an ideological economic system to new comrades, and everything with ensuring that next time the fight with the Germans would occur somewhere other than Russia. |
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Russia will always be an angry bag of shit which is envious of the west. Regardless of the superficial label of their governmennt. Putin was a commie thug. Now he is an oligarch thug.
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Russia's problem is that it's near neighbors are German, and after two world wars and a lot of dead people they're pathologically paranoid about the Krauts. Communism in Eastern Europe post WW2 has fuck all to do with spreading an ideological economic system to new comrades, and everything with ensuring that next time the fight with the Germans would occur somewhere other than Russia. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
Quoted: What forces this expansion cycle? Odessa is a great port. So is St Petersburg. Then they had Crimea. Russia’s problem is that Russia can’t live beside neighbors it can’t bully. This drives the expansion, and is self-inflicted. Communism in Eastern Europe post WW2 has fuck all to do with spreading an ideological economic system to new comrades, and everything with ensuring that next time the fight with the Germans would occur somewhere other than Russia. |
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Go further back. What if that dude hadn't shot that other dude. No WWI. No discontent. No revolution. No Soviet Russia. No dirt poor Germans. No dickhead art student corporal. No Nazis. One bullet changed world history in ridiculously profound ways. View Quote |
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Go further back. What if that dude hadn't shot that other dude. No WWI. No discontent. No revolution. No Soviet Russia. No dirt poor Germans. No dickhead art student corporal. No Nazis. No United States to the rescue. No US rebuilding the world. One bullet changed world history in ridiculously profound ways. View Quote |
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Russia's problem is that it's near neighbors are German, and after two world wars and a lot of dead people they're pathologically paranoid about the Krauts. Communism in Eastern Europe post WW2 has fuck all to do with spreading an ideological economic system to new comrades, and everything with ensuring that next time the fight with the Germans would occur somewhere other than Russia. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
Quoted: What forces this expansion cycle? Odessa is a great port. So is St Petersburg. Then they had Crimea. Russia’s problem is that Russia can’t live beside neighbors it can’t bully. This drives the expansion, and is self-inflicted. Communism in Eastern Europe post WW2 has fuck all to do with spreading an ideological economic system to new comrades, and everything with ensuring that next time the fight with the Germans would occur somewhere other than Russia. |
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Quoted: War was inevitible, and would have kicked off one way or the other before 1920...Prencip just sped things up a bit. View Quote |
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All the great powers in Europe wanted a war, especially Germany. Germany was late to the colonization game and got left with the scraps, and thus less resources. Russia was improving its industry and railroads, so the longer the war was delayed, the worse position Germany was in. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
Quoted: War was inevitible, and would have kicked off one way or the other before 1920...Prencip just sped things up a bit. The Russians were just exercising. |
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Russia... combining the very worst aspects of Western and Eastern culture since 1547. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes |
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Correct. August 1, 1914. Germany Declares War on Russia. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes |
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If the Reds had not won then the huge industrialization of Russia would not have happened in such a compressed time frame.
Russia would have remained an undeveloped agrarian country for decades to come. It was the Commies that ripped, at great cost in life, Russia into the 20th Century. The Germans and Soviets would not have had a secret pact in 1922, and the Germans would have been unable to do all their secret testing and training in the Soviet Union between 1922 and 1933. None of the concepts for armored warfare would have been developed the way they were, and all the German officers who later commanded Panzer Divisions would not have been able to train in the Soviet Union. Perhaps most importantly, military grade radios capable of surviving inside armored vehicles would not have been able to be tested and refined as they were by the Germans in the Soviet Union. This was incredibly important to Blitzkrieg......It would have cost the German military a great deal and they would have had to continue working secretly with Sweden, but were very limited in what they could do. Without the industrialization of the Communists the Russians would not have been able to fend the Japanese off in the 1930s so easily, if at all. There might have been a repeat of 1904/05 and things might have been very different with Japanese expansion. will add more in a minute |
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Muslim countries fight for their religion.
Most countries fight for their expansion or preservation. Russia is a drunk asshole that wants to fight for any or no reason. |
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Muslim countries fight for their religion. Most countries fight for their expansion or preservation. Russia is a drunk asshole that wants to fight for any or no reason. View Quote Colonial days than the Russians were. |
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Go further back. What if that dude hadn't shot that other dude. No WWI. No discontent. No revolution. No Soviet Russia. No dirt poor Germans. No dickhead art student corporal. No Nazis. One bullet changed world history in ridiculously profound ways. View Quote |
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What if the 1917 revolution would have failed? What would be possible world status if the Romanovs had remained in power and Russia had never been the asshole of the east for the last 100 years? View Quote Staying on the question at hand, if the 1917 revolution had failed, another would have happened. There were several uprisings before that, and the war was going really badly for Russia. |
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If the Reds had lost the Civil War then Russia would not have emerged as a great power in 1945 and
would never have been a threat to the US. The huge Soviet war machine would have never existed. If Russia had not turned Communist than Hitler would not have turned away so quickly from England in 1941. He would have finished what he had started. The Royal Navy, not yet learning the abilities of aircraft against Capital ships (Prince of Wales and Repulse) would have been lured out during the invasion of England and sunk in the channel. The invasion, and losses of Crete would not have yet happened and so you would have seen mass use of paratroopers on England followed up by invasion from the sea. England would have been flattened and Churchill and the King would have moved to Canada. On the flip side, the great purges of the Russian officers would not have happened in the 1930s which eliminated the best and brightest. The idea of maneuver warfare (Deep Battle) would not have been lost the way it was to the Russians due to the purges. They just would not have had the industrialization to make such use of it. If the Commies had not come into power the US would have played a major roll in rebuilding Russia in the post World War I years. Huge investments would likely have been made by US industry. Ties between the US and Russia, following the US intervention in Russia with the AEF fighting against the Reds in 1918/1919, would likely have been very good. Remington would not have faced financial ruin due to the Russians not paying for arms supplied during the war. There likely would have been huge sales of American agriculture equipment to Russia. All the sacrifices of the US 339th Infantry (Polar Bears) and other US Army and Naval Units would not be forgotten and there would be a proper US military cemetery in Russia for our war dead. |
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Doctor Who could've killed off the daleks right at their origin but the brainwashed, weak-willed pussy was afraid of committing genocide. It's usually a liberal with a screwed up moral compass that screws things up.
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I don't think the Romanovs could have stayed in power, Tsar Nicholas II made some huge mistakes when he
took command of the Army, and in doing so bore the blame for the military defeats. He was forever tarnished by this. It was a serious error on his part. While he was a reformer to a degree, the living conditions of the peasant class in Russia in 1917-1919 was incredibly bad. American soldiers' accounts of life in Russia in 1918/1919 was exceedingly bleak. American POWs shipped to Moscow painted an exceedingly dire picture of starvation on the streets and the lack of food. Nicholas didn't have it in him to lift the people out of such poverty. The Communists did it through a herculean effort which cost the lives of millions. It is likely the only way Russia could have been lifted out of it would have been through US aid, support and industrialization. You would have needed people like Henry Ford (a Nazi sympathizer but he knew factories and manufacturing) and other forward thinking men of the time to make huge investments and an exchange of technology. |
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It's possible Rasputin was trying to convince the Czar to sue for a separate peace in 1916.
Imagine Russia out of the war in 1916, no Bolsheviks and most likely a German victory on the western front. No Hitler no Stalin if the mad monk lived. |
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There were two Russian revolutions in 1917.
A better question is what if Nicholas II had a pair of balls and executed communists like his father, instead of light jail sentences or exile? No Lenin grooming himself in Switzerland, no Trotsky acting like a playboy in NYC. |
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More than likely, Finland would have not declared independence at all in the manner they did. They would have
likely regained their autonomous stature, lost in 1901, and perhaps been given independence. If given independence they would have likely maintained good relations with Russia. If they had declared their independence in the same manner as they did, without Stalin's purges, the Russian military, when Russia moved to reclaim the Grand Duchy of Finland, a rightful part of Russia since 1809, the Russians would have likely been successful, depending upon the time period. |
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It's possible Rasputin was trying to convince the Czar to sue for a separate peace in 1916. Imagine Russia out of the war in 1916, no Bolsheviks and most likely a German victory on the western front. No Hitler no Stalin if the mad monk lived. View Quote units waving the Red Banner. There were Bolsheviks in Finland. There had been a mutiny by the Russian Navy in 1905. The disease was in Europe, but it was the Germans who weaponized it...... |
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What forces this expansion cycle? Odessa is a great port. So is St Petersburg. Then they had Crimea. Russia’s problem is that Russia can’t live beside neighbors it can’t bully. This drives the expansion, and is self-inflicted. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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Whether it be ancient hordes of knights and their clans, Czars, Communists, or Cleptocrats, Russia has and will always suffer from this reality: Lack of access to the sea, with no land borders to protect her from invasion, and an expansion-contraction cycle of security apparatus for the periphery, while the interior suffers economically. It's way too big of a territory to have one political entity over it because it can never support itself. Being frozen almost year-round only adds the final nail to that geopolitical coffin. Odessa is a great port. So is St Petersburg. Then they had Crimea. Russia’s problem is that Russia can’t live beside neighbors it can’t bully. This drives the expansion, and is self-inflicted. Mongols Tatars Persians Turks Swedes French Japanese Germans When any of the above skirmishes over border regions, they then have to take the economic capital and spend it on security in those regions. Odessa, Sainkt Petersburg, and Krim are all great, as long as they don't get any ambitions past: Turks (Odessa/Krim) Finns/Estonians/Swedes/Danes/Dutch/Brits (Sainkt Petersburg) Japs (Vladivostok) They are effectively land-locked, and the critical pan-Eurasian trade routes largely bypass them with sea traffic into actual useful ports that don't come with all the baggage of negotiating with Russians. You ever negotiate with a Russian? |
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It's possible Rasputin was trying to convince the Czar to sue for a separate peace in 1916. Imagine Russia out of the war in 1916, no Bolsheviks and most likely a German victory on the western front. No Hitler no Stalin if the mad monk lived. View Quote Verdun might well have fallen. The French Army might have broken a year earlier than it did. The entire war in the West could have been changed dramatically. It would have had a huge impact on the Austro-Hungarian Dual Monarchy as well. It would have placed the Italians in a very bad spot. Even if the French had been defeated and the British had to bravely run away as they did in 1940, I doubt the Germans would have had the capacity to follow them. The Royal Navy was still unchallenged. The English might have sued for peace or they might have continued strangling the Germans by sinking all shipping bound for Germany. The map of Europe would have looked dramatically different, especially in the East. Also, one thing most don't think about, the great ideas of maneuver warfare might not have taken root. While the Western Front was a stalemate of trenches, there were great sweeping battles on the Eastern Front during World War I. It was the fighting in the East which taught the lessons which led to both the German Blitzkrieg and the Russian Deep Battle concepts. This type of thinking was totally lost on the French because it was not their experience during the war. The French learned a different lesson from World War I, due to what the Western Front was like.....so its possible the concept of Blitzkrieg and Deep Battle might not have taken root at all if the war had ended in 1916 with Russia......think about that.... |
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More of a what-if is if the whites had won.
WW1 was inevitable. The tsar regime collapsing was just a matter of time as well. He had massive domestic issues before you add in the war. Now, the tsar and his family is executed, a civil war erupts just like it did, except the communists aren't able to seize power. There was a time when Russia looked to the US system for their future and let's just say it happened. No red menace for Hitler to harangue about, not that it would have stopped him. Living space and all that. However, no purges. The Russians would likely have not ignored the military buildup on its border, or German rearmament, or been as "friendly" as they were to them. No division of Poland, perhaps they would have actually guaranteed Poland along with England and France. Then there's the long term effects. Cold war? Nuclear weapons? Ww2 as we know it would have been vastly different |
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Go further back. What if that dude hadn't shot that other dude. No WWI. No discontent. No revolution. No Soviet Russia. No dirt poor Germans. No dickhead art student corporal. No Nazis. One bullet changed world history in ridiculously profound ways. View Quote |
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When they focus on the interior, their borders look weak to hordes of: Mongols Tatars Persians Turks Swedes French Japanese Germans When any of the above skirmishes over border regions, they then have to take the economic capital and spend it on security in those regions. Odessa, Sainkt Petersburg, and Krim are all great, as long as they don't get any ambitions past: Turks (Odessa/Krim) Finns/Estonians/Swedes/Danes/Dutch/Brits (Sainkt Petersburg) Japs (Vladivostok) They are effectively land-locked, and the critical pan-Eurasian trade routes largely bypass them with sea traffic into actual useful ports that don't come with all the baggage of negotiating with Russians. You ever negotiate with a Russian? View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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Whether it be ancient hordes of knights and their clans, Czars, Communists, or Cleptocrats, Russia has and will always suffer from this reality: Lack of access to the sea, with no land borders to protect her from invasion, and an expansion-contraction cycle of security apparatus for the periphery, while the interior suffers economically. It's way too big of a territory to have one political entity over it because it can never support itself. Being frozen almost year-round only adds the final nail to that geopolitical coffin. Odessa is a great port. So is St Petersburg. Then they had Crimea. Russia’s problem is that Russia can’t live beside neighbors it can’t bully. This drives the expansion, and is self-inflicted. Mongols Tatars Persians Turks Swedes French Japanese Germans When any of the above skirmishes over border regions, they then have to take the economic capital and spend it on security in those regions. Odessa, Sainkt Petersburg, and Krim are all great, as long as they don't get any ambitions past: Turks (Odessa/Krim) Finns/Estonians/Swedes/Danes/Dutch/Brits (Sainkt Petersburg) Japs (Vladivostok) They are effectively land-locked, and the critical pan-Eurasian trade routes largely bypass them with sea traffic into actual useful ports that don't come with all the baggage of negotiating with Russians. You ever negotiate with a Russian? |
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Russia would have found another reason to pick a fight with Austria over Serbia. It was itching for a fight. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
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Go further back. What if that dude hadn't shot that other dude. No WWI. No discontent. No revolution. No Soviet Russia. No dirt poor Germans. No dickhead art student corporal. No Nazis. One bullet changed world history in ridiculously profound ways. Maybe a war not on the scale of WW1, but almost certainly Crimean War level in scale. Add in the new technology mixed with the Napoleonic tactics of the early years of WW1, and you're easily looking at a few million dead. |
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Been thinking more about the Armenian Question leading towards an alternate beginning to WW1...
It really comes down to a question if France, Britain, Austria-Hungary, and lesser extent Germany would be cool with Russia expanding its influence in the Black Sea and Caucuses at the expense of the Ottoman Empire. Britain didn't really care about the Caucuses. They had already accepted Russian hegemony well south of Tehran with the 1907 Anglo-Russo agreement. But the Brits were more apprehensive of Russian influence in the Black Sea down to the the Bosphorus marked and out to the Dardanelles. The British support of Greece send Bulgaria during the Balkan Wars shows this. France had no real interests in the Caucuses, aside from concern about the Ottoman treatment of Armenians as well as other Christians in the Ottoman Empire, as seen in the 1856 Treaty of Paris. France also had told Russia that France would not get involved in a war between Russia and Austria-Hungary, essentially showing that France did not have a unconditional view of Triple Entente. However, the fact that France didn't show this support to Russia might have been indicative of the French's feelings towards their own military readiness compared to Germany. France was still bitter about losing Alsace-Lorraine 40 building years earlier, so that would have been a reason to go to war with Germany, if the Germans intervened to help A-H. Any Russian gains in the Black Sea and Caucuses would have been immediate concern to Austria-Hungary. Austria-Hungary even supported the Ottomans during the First Balkan War because of their worries about the rise of Nationalism from their Slavic populations and Russia's self appointed title of defender of all things Slav. I can easily see Austria-Hungary allying with the Ottomans again if Russia were to launch a ground war to gain the Armenian areas of Anatolia. The German-AH alliance would have almost certainly pulled Germany into the fight to support Austria-Hungary. Austria-Hungary regularly got their dicks smashed when fighting the Russians until mid-1915 when Germany started running the show for the empire's military. The other Central Power - Italy (Lol) - would have probably stayed on the sidelines until promised something by one of the great powers. I guess Russia could have promised the same things the Allies promised Italy in 1915 on the condition that Austria-Hungary was defeated. I don't really see the Brits entering the war to support Russia without a German invasion of Belgium. Britain wasn't really sold on the prospect of war in 1914 until the German ultimatum to Belgium. The real question is does France commit to helping Russia in a conflict against the Ottomans and Austria-Hungary (along with German support)? The staggering amount of Russian casualties mixed in with the Germans very savvy use of stirring internal unrest within Russia almost assures that the House of the Romanovs falls during a war. Would George V have stood idly and watched his cousin be overthrown as the result of a war? I think that a post-Romanov state without the influence of Communism could have taken shape many different ways, but unless there is a strong nation-state on its western borders, then Russia gonna Russia. The Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth did this and I think Jozef Pilsudski's proposed Intermarium would have accomplished that as well, but without Austria-Hungary and Germany being defeated that would have never even been possible. |
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Been thinking more about the Armenian Question leading towards an alternate beginning to WW1... It really comes down to a question if France, Britain, Austria-Hungary, and lesser extent Germany would be cool with Russia expanding its influence in the Black Sea and Caucuses at the expense of the Ottoman Empire. Britain didn't really care about the Caucuses. They had already accepted Russian hegemony well south of Tehran with the 1907 Anglo-Russo agreement. But the Brits were more apprehensive of Russian influence in the Black Sea down to the the Bosphorus marked and out to the Dardanelles. The British support of Greece send Bulgaria during the Balkan Wars shows this. France had no real interests in the Caucuses, aside from concern about the Ottoman treatment of Armenians as well as other Christians in the Ottoman Empire, as seen in the 1856 Treaty of Paris. France also had told Russia that France would not get involved in a war between Russia and Austria-Hungary, essentially showing that France did not have a unconditional view of Triple Entente. However, the fact that France didn't show this support to Russia might have been indicative of the French's feelings towards their own military readiness compared to Germany. France was still bitter about losing Alsace-Lorraine 40 building years earlier, so that would have been a reason to go to war with Germany, if the Germans intervened to help A-H. Any Russian gains in the Black Sea and Caucuses would have been immediate concern to Austria-Hungary. Austria-Hungary even supported the Ottomans during the First Balkan War because of their worries about the rise of Nationalism from their Slavic populations and Russia's self appointed title of defender of all things Slav. I can easily see Austria-Hungary allying with the Ottomans again if Russia were to launch a ground war to gain the Armenian areas of Anatolia. The German-AH alliance would have almost certainly pulled Germany into the fight to support Austria-Hungary. Austria-Hungary regularly got their dicks smashed when fighting the Russians until mid-1915 when Germany started running the show for the empire's military. The other Central Power - Italy (Lol) - would have probably stayed on the sidelines until promised something by one of the great powers. I guess Russia could have promised the same things the Allies promised Italy in 1915 on the condition that Austria-Hungary was defeated. I don't really see the Brits entering the war to support Russia without a German invasion of Belgium. Britain wasn't really sold on the prospect of war in 1914 until the German ultimatum to Belgium. The real question is does France commit to helping Russia in a conflict against the Ottomans and Austria-Hungary (along with German support)? The staggering amount of Russian casualties mixed in with the Germans very savvy use of stirring internal unrest within Russia almost assures that the House of the Romanovs falls during a war. Would George V have stood idly and watched his cousin be overthrown as the result of a war? I think that a post-Romanov state without the influence of Communism could have taken shape many different ways, but unless there is a strong nation-state on its western borders, then Russia gonna Russia. The Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth did this and I think Jozef Pilsudski's proposed Intermarium would have accomplished that as well, but without Austria-Hungary and Germany being defeated that would have never even been possible. View Quote |
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Russia completely missed the Renaissance and they got left behind. They have never recovered.
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@axl
Click To View Spoiler Let's presume that Bolsheviks and Mensheviks lost civil war, it would have resulted in huge number of discrimination, purges, expulsions, and executions - huge. Kerensky was useless. It probably would have been regular army general, Diktator, which managed to defeat communists and socialists. I think Russia needs monarch too. I don't think Nicholas was intellectually up to task of managing Russia’s problems even if WW1 never happened. That is not slight against Nicholas, Russia faced majorly difficult issues before start of war. If Nicholas was exiled or "retired" there would be series of follow on civil wars as Diktator inevitably lost his political momentum.
If Nicholas II was retained as Tsar (and it had to be him while he was alive) he would have been turned into puppet that had to scheme for his and his successor's independence. That scheming would have to be done wery deftly or Russia will be left exposed to reignition of civil war. Nicholas wasn't smart enough to do this (again this is not slight, it was just that damn precarious). Maybe Diktator is smart enough to keep Tsar Nicholas on tight leash. Anti-Bolsheviks were out of their league, they had no one near as crafty as devious as Bolsheviks had. Hopefully they could have reformed into free market, wery wery limited democratik constitutional monarchy that still retained much power in hands of Tsar. Russian nobility lived sinfully extravagant lives in murderous country, but sins of Tsarist Russia paled in comparison to sins of communism, especially Bolshevism and Stalinism. Preventing Bolshevik conquest of Russian Empire will lead to suffering, and unjust persecution, but better, more gentle, and less horrific world will emerge, world with far less dead. Destroying Bolshevik movement in Russia prevents purges, Holodomor, Great Leap Forward, Viet'Nam War, Killing Fields of Khmer Rouge, and probably prevents Afrikan Bush Wars. To start with, in August 1917 royal family was imprisoned by Keresnky Government in mansion secluded in Ural Mountains. Later, in April 1918, royal family would be moved to "house of special purpose" in Yekaterinburg. We shall presume General Lavr Kornilov moved towards St. Petersburg in September 1917, encouraged rumors of dissipation, yet kept small core of his army united and staged successfully rescue of various Romanovs in 1917 especially: Grand Duke Nicholas Mikhailovich, and Grand Duke Dmitri Konstantinovich. Those two seemed to have clue about what was happening, and what needed to happen. General Mikhail Alekseyev was in charge of Stavka for Kerensky Government, and we shall suppose that he did not arrest General Kornilov. Alekseyev, and others escape to General Alexey Kaledin's Don Cossacks. General Kornilov eventually reunites. These men work together under General Anton Denikin's White Army project, and build strong front of resistance in south of western Russia. Vladimir Lenin concludes Treaty of Brest-Litovsk in March of 1918, bringing peace between Germania and Russia. Admiral Aleksandr Kolchak, in deepest Siberia, decides he has had enough of everyone's shit and declares All Russia Government, "No, minorities, you are not getting uppity. No, half hearted liberals, you get bullet too. All Bolsheviks must die." Czechoslovak Legion had started as volunteers aiding Imperial Russia against Austro-Hungarians, now they were trapped, and Bolsheviks meant to do them in. Czechoslovak Legion, emboldened by Kornilov’s success, quickly moved into Yekaterinburg, and took custody of Royal Family – big surprise. Czechoslovaks also got Russia’s gold, weird but true. Czechoslovaks are in western Russia, but need to be in Vladivostok, frail Alexeii will not survive this trip. Czechoslovaks arrive in Ohmsk, big PR boost, rallying point for All Russia Government. Nicholas tells Admiral Aleksandr Kolchak to knock his shit off or Czechoslovaks are going to fuck everything up - Admiral Kolchak abides. This is great turning point for previously doomed anti-Bolshevik effort in Siberia. Amerikan and Nipponese troops welcomed by Czechoslovaks at Vladivostok, “Howdy Buckeroos, Wilson sent us to rescue you, and bring you back to Vladivostok.” Bedraggled Tsar pops head from around corner: “please get my family out of here.” Czechoslovaks go back home, Royal Family goes to visit small Russian community in Alaska Territory. Britannia admits Tsarina and daughters into Kanada, Nicholas makes his way back to western Russia. Secretary of Commerce Herbert Hoover continued his relief program in Europe by organizing to deliver food aid to anti-Bolshevik forces in west too. Murmansk-Arkhangelsk Expedition is withdrawn as lost cause (too damn cold, Siberia is warmer) but Wilson, Harding, and Coolidge administrations continue to support anti-Bolshevik forces through Vladivostok. By time Nicholas returned to western Russia, General Pyotr Wrankel had become predominant anti-Bolshevik leader in western Russia. Pyotr encourages Nicholas to reclaim throne he renounced. After consideration I have identified four descendents of Tsar Nicholas I which had potential to be great heirs to Nicholas II: Grand Duke Kirill Vladimirovich, veteran sailor who fled to Finland to escape Revolution. Prince Ioann Konstantinovich, religious man who served in army, and had one very young son. Prince Konstantin Konstantinovich, brother of Ioann, good man, and war hero. Grand Duke Alexander Mikhailovich, somewhat intelligent man that argued against his children being compelled to marry their cousins. Of these options, I think that Ioann, great grandson of Tsar Nicholas I and second cousin to Tsar Nicholas II, would be most stable selection for throne, so we suppose Ioann was rescued by General Kornilov. Not now, but later Ioann is named as successor, and eventually his son Vsevolod (who will be raised better with living father and not be screw up). Nicholas acknowledges independence of Finland, Baltics, Georgia, and Poland. General Wrankel is likeliest candidate to be Diktator. Ukraine is integrated at this point. Finland eventually helps White Army to destroy Bolshevik power in Russia by mid 1920s. New Poland is super dick country, and would probably try to conquer some peripheral territories even if no Communists in Russia – of grumblings there are many. After domestic situation began to stabilize, Russia’s economy would be wery much helped if it has solid access to Mediterranean Sea. If Diktator could somehow get Russia's act together quickly enough, it might be good idea to help Greeks in Turkey. You wouldn't necessarily need to go to extent of Treaty of Sevres, but if Greeks could get Thrace and Ionia/Smyrna in exchange for Russian strip on south coast of Marmara - spasibo. This is tall order though, and Russia would be well advised to avoid foreign adventures – so we suppose this does not happen. By 1940s Diktator, if he was still alive, would be old. Tsar Nicholas would have consulted with Nicholas Mikhailovich on how to maintain strong monarchy within republic. Diktator's successor and new Tsar would probably have more equitable power sharing, it may even be that Diktator's successor is content to rule from shadows and they skip Mussolini-Victor Emmanuel phase. Russia would be sympathetic to Fascist causes. Bolsheviks in Britannia and Amerika would have been in exposed position, but their fate depends on different things. Let's suppose this doesn't bode well for them, though French communists probably linger on as backstabbers in waiting. I don’t think explicitly fascist or Nazi parties catch on in Amerika or Britannia (Oswald Mosley will make some hay, but not much). Germania would have still endured its communist revolution, but communism is defeated movement. Espania still goes through its idiotic communist civil war. Fascism still flourishes in Italia and Espania with Benito Mussolini and Francisco Franco. Development of Germania into war mongering state is debatable. German Worker’s Party (DAP) probably never adds “Nationalsozialistische” to it’s name. Conservative, volkisch nationalism (especially Adolf Hitler and DAP) are set to be huge political force for decades in Germania – though they may never gain majority of seats in Reichstag. Negation of repayments, remilitarization of Ruhr, and Anschluss still are things. I think Constitutional Tsarist Russia keeps Germania’s expansion away from Silesia, and satiated with Danzig and Klaipeda. Poland and Lithuania likely develop some association betwixt themselves. To quote Sylvan as best I can, “Stalinist era Russians felt naked without a boot being ground into their necks.” Constitutionalist Tsar era pulls Russia back from that condition. There will be revanchists, but victors of Civil War were reclaimers/redeemers and not conquerors – horror was so wide spread in Russia that there will be great aversion to another European war and Russian government will work to defuse approach of one. Nippon has another thing coming to it though - Second Russo Nipponese War. This may preclude Second Sino Japanese War, no Great Pacific War either. Manchuko becomes Russian protectorate. Indian Raj is broken up into confederacy of several states by Lord Halifax and Louis Battenberg. Philippines attains independence in 1945. Widespread discontent in other southeast Asian possessions. Chine stays as petty corrupt dictatorships for decades. Zionists probably create neo-Israel in 1940s or 1950s. Arab states come into fruition in this time frame to. Britannia and Italia will be much stronger with no WW2. Great Depression still happens, but with no war in Europe Robert Taft is elected for two terms as President starting in 1940. Taft walks back many of New Deal programs as Thomas Dewey (brought in as Attorney General) cleans up corrupt unions, organized crime, and communists – America recovers. President Taft, and Senator Arthur Vandenberg keep peace between Amerika and Nippon. At end of his administration, Taft makes small gestures to desegregated Federal agencies and promote some civil rights, this has affect of breaking Democrat party into Progressives and Segregationists. With no WW2 or Korean War, there is no labor shortage, and so there is much less immigration in from Mexico. 1920s immigration regime remains unchanged until 1960s. WW2, and then people like Irving Kristol (a Bolshevik Trotskyite, and "conservative" commentator Bill Kristol's father) and William Buckley broke Old Republican limited government and noninterventionist philosophy for half century. Republicans which rose to top post WW2 were men like Henry Cabot Lodge, Earl Warren, Richard Nixon, Prescott Bush, Dulles Brothers, and Nelson Rockefeller. With defeated Russian Revolution, and no WW2, Amerikan politics will be extremely different. For instance, Father Coughlin and Charles Lindbergh are never publicly disgraced. People such as Joe McCarthy and James Forrestal are not just vindicated, but energized. Eventually Joseph Kennedy Jr. becomes President, probably in 1968 or 1972, but change is so profound that it is difficult to determine where country goes even in 1950s. President Taft’s investment in military also paid dividends. While Britannia, and Germania putzed along with their nuklear device projects, Amerika started slowly but came into lead by late 40s. Russia, France, Britannia, and Germania catch up by mid or late 1950s. Japan recovers and develops its own nuklear device by late 50s or early 60s. In Persia, Reza Shah "Maxim" Pahlavi still comes into power by overthrowing Ahmad Shah Qajar. Old Maxim stays in power until his health begins to decline in 1944, where he hands power to his son Mohammed Reza Pahlavi. Reza Shah's pro-Tsarist, and Germania friendly approach gave Iran an additional degree of independence from Britannia. Mohammad Mossadegh doesn't ever gain traction, rather Haj Ali Razmara stays as Prime Minister and negotiates good deals for oil development in Iran. This helps Pahlavis slowly realize their reform ideas of White Revolution. World economy starts to look wery, wery nice in 1960s. There are still problems in world, world is not utopia, there are big problems still lurking. Even spread of Salafi/Wahabi Islam is still wery likely. Another example is South Africa - there won't be state level backed communist movements to deal with, but they will still have looming demographic expansion of Bantu population, and there was pre-communist growth of bleeding heart moralizing liberalism (and cold as steel sterilizing eugenics - talk about bipolar people) among most English people all over world. malligator: Go further back. What if that dude hadn't shot that other dude.
No WWI. No discontent. No revolution. No Soviet Russia. No dirt poor Germans. No dickhead art student corporal. No Nazis. One bullet changed world history in ridiculously profound ways. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes malligator: Go further back. What if that dude hadn't shot that other dude.
No WWI. No discontent. No revolution. No Soviet Russia. No dirt poor Germans. No dickhead art student corporal. No Nazis. One bullet changed world history in ridiculously profound ways. Click To View Spoiler Tsar Alexander II was murdered by three proto-bolsheviks in 1880
Ignacy Hryniewiecki Ivan Yemelyanov Nikolai Rysakov Going into some Russian history; Sweden fought to keep the Russian people economically crippled by forcing their sea trade to go only though the ports it controlled on the Baltic, and as a result it ended up losing Finland. Before there was even a Suez Canal, Britain strove to keep Russia hemmed into the Black Sea. Britain did this because it feared Russia might interfere with Britain's effective monopoly on it's slave continent - India. This ridiculous behavior was rooted in the love of money. The Ottoman Empire was kept in power for far longer than it should have been, and if the European powers organized with Russia, it could have been brought down to a rump state in central Anatolia. Eastern Europe, and the minority populations of Anatolia suffered for this lack of action. The modern European countries should have learned their lessons from the Crusades, they should have been interested in restoring fellow Christian people to freedom, but they couldn't be bothered. Yes, Russia still would have been a country full of jerk conquerors. If Joseph Stalin couldn't control Yugoslavia, Tsarist Russia isn't going to control the Balkans either (well not for long). @Gunwritr Click To View Spoiler As you said, without the Soviet Union, Germany probably would not have been in as strong a position to invade France. Britain understood the power of aircraft. Germany didn't have the sealift ability to invade Britain in the early 1940s. Britain's production of airpower was increasing, the Luftwaffe was losing that fight. Britain would have used chemical weapons to defend British beaches, and have used both Chemical and Biological weapons on Germany as a response to the invasion.
Tsarist Russia was beginning to industrialize, and the potential of an industrialized Russia was one of the prime considerations of the German Empire in its involvement in WW1. As I have said before, I think America owes Tsarist Russia a debt of gratitude, and you have outlined a very clear path towards a good relationship between the two countries. I also think a defeat of the Bolsheviks would have castrated much of the potential of the Bolsheviks already in America. American liberty would benefit from a victory of the White Russians. For much of Russia and Eastern Europe's history they have had worse quality of life, living conditions, and even literacy (IIRC) than rural Blacks in the southeastern United States. @HeckThomas Click To View Spoiler The Russian army officer corp and the nobility probably would have revolted at an early peace. Pretty much all the hoity-toity Europeans of that era were pants on heads stupid. The Germans offered terms to the Russians just as bad as they got from the French and English. A Russia that was not beaten to the table would have had severe revanchist delusions. As it was, I do think that Stalin was preparing an invasion to conquer Europe. He was crazy, but he was more pragmatic than Trotsky. Trostky would have just run the Red Army right back into Poland in the late 20s or early 30s, and probably would have gotten beaten. Stalin played Hitler into wrecking France and Poland. Germany and Poland should have allied with each other to defend against the Soviets.
All that being said, I don't think WW1 was inevitable. The longer a continental war could have been delayed, the less likely it was. I know that sounds stupid because WW2 came just a few decades later, but that's what I think. @LRRPF52 Click To View Spoiler I agree with the Russian Empire being too big to effectively develop, but I think to make a better arrangement you need changes reaching back centuries in time. If you have a better proposal that you care to write out, I would be quite interested to read it.
Bedouin2W: The more I read about it, I think the Armenian Question would have caused a major conflict around the mid-1910's or early 1920's if Gavrilo Princip's .380 didn't kick things off first.
Maybe a war not on the scale of WW1, but almost certainly Crimean War level in scale. Add in the new technology mixed with the Napoleonic tactics of the early years of WW1, and you're easily looking at a few million dead. . . . Would George V have stood idly and watched his cousin be overthrown as the result of a war? . . . I think that a post-Romanov state without the influence of Communism could have taken shape many different ways, but unless there is a strong nation-state on its western borders, then Russia gonna Russia. The Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth did this and I think Jozef Pilsudski's proposed Intermarium would have accomplished that as well, but without Austria-Hungary and Germany being defeated that would have never even been possible. Click To View Spoiler This is an interesting idea. I think we saw what this would be like, basically the Greco-Turkish War.
George V did sit idly by and watch his damn near identical twin of a cousin and his cousin's extended family get butchered as a result of war. Poland is barely going to get Lithuania on board, the Intermarium is as unrealistic as late 1930s Britain forming a coalition, rearming Germany, and liberating the Soviet Union. Shame too. SaurusX: Russia completely missed the Renaissance and they got left behind. They have never recovered. Click To View Spoiler I would describe Russia as a Viking's attempt to build something with the ruined leftovers of the Hunn, Avar, Pecheneg, Bulgarian, Magyar, Gokturk, and Khazar invasions - that was then curb stomped by "Christian" Swedes and Germans, gang raped by Turco-Mongols, and starved of trade by the literal rape empire of the Ottoman Turks. They didn't just miss the Renaissance, they missed the Classical Era.
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The Romanovs were out in March 1917, over 7 months before the October coup d’etat of the Bolsheviks.
Tsar Nicholas was a dull-witted, inept, rigid autocrat who believed the Romanov dynasty was ordained by God. He would never been allowed as even a figure head and no family member wanted to succeed him. |
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