User Panel
He just might be right. I just got laid off yesterday. |
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sorry to hear that, what were you doing? |
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And that, young Skywalker, is why you fail. |
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ZERO
didn't sell any stock so far this year-until I sell its just a paper loss. Most of the time I don't even open the monthly statements from my broker. I did purchase some stock for some new companies that should do well this year.... the paper loss in in the five figures, but I'm getting more stock for the money right now. You sell in a panic, I purchase with a smile. |
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Market is closed Monday. Good luck with that. Maybe you can buy some foreign stocks if you believe in de-coupling theory. |
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If you held tight in 1929 it only took 20 or more years to regain what it lost from there. I think we'll bounce back fairly soon on the Dow, but something to think about. The Nasdaq has yet to even approach the highs of 1999-2000. So those of you hanging on to your Pets.com stock might want to call your broker for a strategy session. |
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I've made about $500 since the first of the year, I've been lucky
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Yup, selling at the bottom isn't a good thing to do. People should be buying now. I am. The markets are being driven by pure emotion right now. That's why you are seeing the indicators wildly bouncing up and down. When people are freaking out, it's time to buy. Reading this thread sure indicates people are freaking out. |
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I don't even check . The funds I have in the market have been there for
15-20 years and are not going anywhere for another 15 years minimum . In fact . I'll more then likely never touch them . Instead it will be my kids who will do with them as they see fit after I'm dead . |
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Oversold? Maybe. Selling in anticipation of further deterioration of earnings and increases in bankruptcies and defaults and further deterioration of the availability of credit? Probably. We are due for a big up day, maybe, but we could be about to be hit by a fairly good sized recession. Caveat emptor. |
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20 years is nothing - and it regained what it lost - like you said. In other words, people who kept buying into the fall and throughout the depression made money equal to what others had lost - within less than 20 years. It kept going up from there. People who sold out of panic lost a LOT. Are you seriously comparing "pets.com" to solid blue chip investments? Other than a sock puppet and a catchy commercial, did they have any real assets? |
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Over the last couple of months I am down around 10k.
Not to worry though, the market will come back, it is just a matter of time and I have at least 12 years to go. |
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not much............I got out of it relatively ok, and plan to invest my money in something a little safer
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It's all about opportunity costs. You may gain it back in 20 years, but if you had been in, say, crappy government bonds at the top and had made just 3% per annum for twenty years, you'd have done much better than even-steven. ETA: Pets.com is an extreme example, admittedly, but even blue chips have to contend with the economy, if it does well or poorly. |
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I'm down about 4k. But I'm not sellling. You have to look at the really long-term picture.
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A comforting thought, but not entirely accurate. It sometimes takes 20 or 30 years for the stock market to recover it's losses. Even if you do have a long enough term before retirement to weather the downturn, your investments will have lost value through inflation by the time they return to present value. Short answer: Yes, people can and do lose money in the market, even when they "buy and hold". |
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Even steven? We're talking about continuing to buy as opposed to selling off at a loss. People who continued to buy in 1930 didn't wind up "even steven" 20 years later - far from it. Yeah, it would be better to time the market, and sell at the peaks, buy at the lows. Timing that is tricky, however. |
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I get a big kick out of some of you "market timers". You do realize trying to market time has been proven time and again to not work (you lose more money than not trying to time), right?
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In your worst case scenario - the worst economic disaster our country has been in - it turned around in 20 years. What people may have lost to inflation from that time they surely would have made up for - by far - by continuing to invest during the depression itself. Only when I am unemployed, and forced to sell at a loss, will I have "lost money" |
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This is arfcom - where every poster is irresistable to the ladies, expert with all weapons, packing an 8" plus penis, and a self-made millionnaire genius. |
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I seem to recall reading a report that said people who did that had to wait until about the mid-50's before they broke even, when accounting for inflation. |
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Lost more than I'd like to talk about. It comes back through time...
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Again, you are acting as if the idea here is that someone bought all of their stock at the peak, one ONE DAY, then bought nothing throughout the next 20+ years. That is just absurd. A better example woul dbe to take a young 20 year old man, home from the war in 1918, investing NN% of his income a month for the next 30 years. Heck, you can start him in 1927 if you'd like. As long as he was able to keep a job and invest, I can think of few scenarios where it would take 20+ years just to "break even." Few scenarios, that is, except for a guy buying thousands of shares the day before the crash, then buying nothing else until the market caught back up some 20 years later. |
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I was only a temporary working at an automotive manufacturer. They told us several weeks in advance, so we'd be ready. We were also told we would be called back to work in April(seasonal decrease and increase in the line speed). However, if the economy hits a recession, I doubt they'll call us back. |
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I misread you statement. The article I read (if I recall correctly) said that most people had to wait until the mid-50's before they broke even. Now, weather that's because they were stupid and stopped investing after they lost a lot, or if it was because they couldn't invest anymore for a while after being wiped out, I don't know. I was just making a statement, but in retrospect see that it didn't quite apply to what you were saying. |
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That's a fact. Buy low sell high easier said than done. |
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Links? |
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You too? |
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Sorry to hear that. I hope you are ok. |
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Only 8"? Did you happen to catch the Arfcom height thread? I swear at least half the people there were claiming they were over 6'4" |
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Don't you know that if you do anything but buy, hold, and buy more on the dips, you're a gambling market timer! How DARE you pay attention to the indicators and adjust your strategy accordingly. |
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I didn't sell any of my stocks or mutual funds this week, so I didn't lose a dime. The value of my portfolio took a dive, but that's all just so many numbers on the computer monitor until I have to sell. It'll come back to me tenfold long before that time comes.
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Pick up a book on investing. Trying to market time doesn't work. |
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"how much you lose?"
Nothing. It's really a simple concept. I still own every share I owned two weeks ago, and I won't sell until I can get a good price for them. My funds might be worth less now, but I'm not (yet) relying on them to pay the bills. |
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... Well, the "value" of my stocks have declined, but I didn't "lose" money
... I am however investing more in real estate nowadays, there are some fantastic bargains out there now. ... The kinds you always hear people say, "Dang, I wish I had purchased that piece of property when it was $$ instead of $$$" |
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thats absurd. It may not work for the median investor, but that doesn't mean you can't do it. I'm only 26 so my portfolio isn't too big, but I got both of my parents out when the Dow hit its double peak in very early October. Both have them have wanted to get back in every time its dropped 300 points, but I've convinced them otherwise. We've still got a ways to go before I give them the all clear. |
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There have been plenty of studies that prove that market timing doesn't work. Look it up. |
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My 401 make a nominal gain, so no loss there.
My options plays have me down $750 (sevenhundredfifty) since 1/1/08 (AAPL crucified me, thank God I owned the call options and not the stocks!) I like options, I can limit my risk & play for big profits in a bull or bear market. |
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Ok. The books I read tell me to move out of the way of a train when I see it about to hit me. |
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A google search really isn't that hard... Edit: If you love market timing so much, why is dollar cost averaging so popular? |
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Loose?
I pulled my money out when it was at 13,800 in June. I am way a head of the game. I know what's going to happen and I am profiting from it. Don't ask, I just know and I've been correct with my predictions. |
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but, but, that's impossible. No one can do that correctly. Books have proven this. |
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The studies that shoot down market timing analyze the performance of lots of strategies over lots of portfolios for lots of people, and the result is that the average performance is below that of the market itself. True enough.
But -- the statistics also totally discount individual exceptions to the "rule." So, if you think you're one of the exceptions, go for it. I do, and I have. Worked for me in 2000 when I went to cash for a year and didn't lose any money and I'm in cash now and haven't lost any again. Sometimes the most important thing is simply not to lose any money because at my level (small time) it's too hard to replace. Market pros and 401K managers don't like people to do a lot of fund transfers because it plays havoc with their ability to follow their plans. If everyone did it they would have a hell of a time managing their stock investments. I don't care about their difficulties so I rebalance my funds whenever market conditions warrant a change. Usually this is only once or twice a year, but done correctly, you can save yourself a ton of grief by doing so. That's why the common wisdom from all the financial folks tries to discourage market timing -- they sure wouldn't want anyone thinking for themselves! Kind of like owning a firearm vs letting only the "trained professionals" have them. Right now, I'm staying in cash. When I start seeing financial articles with phrases like "Is it capitulation yet?" or "Have we hit the bottom?" then I'll know it's time to get back in. (No, that's not exactly how I'm "timing" it but it'll do for an ARF-explanation.) When the market is going up, all you risk by being is cash in that you don't make as much money. When the market is tanking and you're in cash, you stay safe. If you're in the market when conditions are ripe for bad surprises, then the downside risk is very high and could take years to recover portfolio value. |
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5 seconds with a google search: www.businessweek.com/1998/10/b3568136.htm Another: www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2007/20070824.html Here's some info from an ING study: |
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I don't understand that graph. Where are the people who missed the worst 10 days, the worst 20 days and so on, but were in for the best days.. The problem here, is that your were speaking (writing) in absolutes. Clearly, the median investor probably can't time the market, that does not mean certain people aren't capable of such a thing. |
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The point of the graph is that if you miss just a few of the upside days, your earnings plunge. Do you know when the upside days are going to be? No one does. A balanced portfolio takes much of the risk away and does much better for long term investing (3+ years). |
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Long term investing is a low pass filter, ignore the little ups and downs, keep it in the market.
In 20-25 years you will be set. |
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