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Link Posted: 8/9/2014 12:47:51 PM EDT
[#1]
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Shinseki's numbers were better than what we did. He probably knew there was no way he would get what he wanted, so he did what all negotiators do, he started with a high number. Even if we did send too many, what is the big deal? Too many available re-enforcements? Is it cheaper to send 150,000-200,000 for 10 years, and fail, or send 400,000 and succeed? Not to mention casualties. After the surge got control of things, the amount of men and material lost dropped dramatically. Imagine if we had the required resources from the start. There may be hundreds if not thousands of our men killed and wounded alive and well today.

We actually did send more troops to Iraq (eventually). Because they were needed. They were actually needed much earlier. We had a pretty dam good General named Tommy Franks. But like almost all the good Generals of his generation, he quit early because Rumsfeld was one of the worst Sec Defs in the history of this country. Naturally, no talented general was looking to take charge of that disaster. Anyone with half a brain could see it wasn't going well and Rumsfeld backed by Bush was the root of the problem. Not until Gates replaced Rumsfeld, did we get another good general to sign up for it. Sure the Army wasn't prepared for a COIN fight against two factions wanting a civil war. All of that might have been avoided if we had the troop numbers we needed from the start, and if Paul Bremer had listened to another good retired General named Jay Garner who told him to not disband the Army, and create more enemies than we already had.
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Unless you are someone who wants to ignorantly argue that it is because boosh just wanted a war, you have to accept that we probably should have sent more guys to start with. There is something to be said about fighting decisively from the start. Going in light doesn't support that.



Numbers matter when compared to strategy and desired outcome. If we have a bad strategy then more troops will not help it. Think of your home defense analogy with a .22. If your choice is a .22 and a .44 magnum and the .44 will not hit the target then the .22 is actually superior.

As far as the actual troop numbers for desert storm the strategy was to drive the Iraqis out of Kuwait and then leave a division minus in Kuwait until the locals got back on their feet, We probably had enough or slightly to many troops to the task. I say to many because there were whole armored brigades not employed because there wasn't the logistics or room to support them.

If your talking about occupying without using local forces then there are no amount of troops we can field that will win it. 10 divisions in Iraq would have been just as ineffective from '0-4 to '07 as 5 divisions or 1 division.

Shinseki's 400'000 number was just made up and has no statistical or doctrinal logic behind it. Why didn't Korea require 400'000 in 1954 ? Why didn't Japan require a million troops in  1945? Why were we able to draw down so fast in Italy or in Germany?  There are a million factors and off the cuff remarks (Shinseki's) were tactics, troops and end states don't align are like 44 magnums that wont hit anyone.

  We shouldn't have sent more troops to Iraq, we should have sent better generals

Shinseki's numbers were better than what we did. He probably knew there was no way he would get what he wanted, so he did what all negotiators do, he started with a high number. Even if we did send too many, what is the big deal? Too many available re-enforcements? Is it cheaper to send 150,000-200,000 for 10 years, and fail, or send 400,000 and succeed? Not to mention casualties. After the surge got control of things, the amount of men and material lost dropped dramatically. Imagine if we had the required resources from the start. There may be hundreds if not thousands of our men killed and wounded alive and well today.

We actually did send more troops to Iraq (eventually). Because they were needed. They were actually needed much earlier. We had a pretty dam good General named Tommy Franks. But like almost all the good Generals of his generation, he quit early because Rumsfeld was one of the worst Sec Defs in the history of this country. Naturally, no talented general was looking to take charge of that disaster. Anyone with half a brain could see it wasn't going well and Rumsfeld backed by Bush was the root of the problem. Not until Gates replaced Rumsfeld, did we get another good general to sign up for it. Sure the Army wasn't prepared for a COIN fight against two factions wanting a civil war. All of that might have been avoided if we had the troop numbers we needed from the start, and if Paul Bremer had listened to another good retired General named Jay Garner who told him to not disband the Army, and create more enemies than we already had.



  Can you explain why you think Franks was a great general?

  What was the plan to handle Iraq after we got to Baghdad. Seriously why do you think he was a great general? What great battles or campaigns did he win? What is the standard for being  a great general? Surely you have to win, something, at some point to make  the title great General. It cant all be posing and posturing and P.T.....


 The plan for after Baghdad (or lack thereof) was Franks job, not the Sec Def. Franks reports to the president not the Sec Def. Franks had a staff full of highly trained military planners and his failure to plan is solely his responsibility.

  What's the deal with numbers? That's sort of like asking what's the deal with strategy, or end states, or commanders intent.

  Numbers, having lots of troops doesn't mean you'll succeed.

 
Sure the Army wasn't prepared for a COIN fight against two factions wanting a civil war. All of that might have been avoided if we had the troop numbers we needed from the start
 

  So even if were not prepared and we don't have a plan we can still win if we just have "more" troops then the original plan? Cool what is the magic ration? Should the next CENTCOM commander just reflexively double the number of troops needed and skip planning altogether?

  General Garner, was a great General, totally got the call on what to do in Iraq and really should have been in charge. Ive heard he had problems with Powel and Franks and that was why Bremmer was brought in.



 
Link Posted: 8/9/2014 12:55:04 PM EDT
[#2]
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ISIS wouldn't have made it 10 miles past the border without local support. ISIS in Iraq at this point is all the Sunnis pissed off at the Central government. Why should we back the inept Shia's who've systematically excluded them from the process at the behest of Iran since we left? You are essentially advocating air striking Peter to save Paul at this point so to speak.

Arming and supporting the Yzedi and Kurds is probably the best and safest bet at this point. It is also smart of the admin to be claiming it is to prevent genocide. If we claim or are seen as supporting an independent Kurdistan, that opens up another huge shitstorm and pisses off a lot more people, including some pretty powerful NATO allies.

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The problem with boots on the ground, no matter how many of them you send, is eventually they have to return home. Iraq was in pretty stable condition when the last of our forces left there. We could no doubt go in with another 100,000 troops and clear out this ISIS rabble. But someday those troops would have to be brought home. At some point, the locals there are going to have to take control of their own destiny. They can't and will never learn to do that if we do everything for them. I am all for offering them whatever support they need to defeat ISIS. But it will have to be Iraqis themselves doing the lifting on the ground.


They are doing that now. Don't like it? Well you are going to have to send someone to change things.

A perfumed prince in the sky at 20,000 feet dropping ordinance is a mainly uneducated manner is not as convincing as GD thinks.


Would the Kurds and Iraqi Army benefit greatly if they just had US air support and maybe some intel (and in the case of the Kurds, heavier weapons)? Nobody is saying that dropping bombs from aircraft alone is going to decisively defeat ISIS. But having that level of support would give them a much better chance of getting this situation under control than they would have otherwise. I don't think the locals can hold against ISIS without assistance. But with US air support, I think their odds of doing just that go way up.


ISIS wouldn't have made it 10 miles past the border without local support. ISIS in Iraq at this point is all the Sunnis pissed off at the Central government. Why should we back the inept Shia's who've systematically excluded them from the process at the behest of Iran since we left? You are essentially advocating air striking Peter to save Paul at this point so to speak.

Arming and supporting the Yzedi and Kurds is probably the best and safest bet at this point. It is also smart of the admin to be claiming it is to prevent genocide. If we claim or are seen as supporting an independent Kurdistan, that opens up another huge shitstorm and pisses off a lot more people, including some pretty powerful NATO allies.



  Obviously you've never met any of these guys. I am adamantly opposed to genocide but the Yezidis are shit eating devil worshipers (seriously) and after centuries of inbreeding have serious physical/psychological issues that make them entirely unsuitable for training. The Peshmerga on the other hand would clean ISIS clock if they the equipment and didn't think Maliki would stab them in the back and try to re take Kirkuk while they were out fighting in the west.

  Also the situation with Turkey and the Kurds have changed substantially over the years. The Kurds in Turkey make up a strong voting block with the current government and Turkey has signed an agreement with the KRG over oil.
Link Posted: 8/9/2014 12:56:37 PM EDT
[#3]
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There was strategy?

Remove ROEs and win a war against stone age opponent with AKs. Otherwise stay home.
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Agreed.

This world is run by ignoramuses and tyrants.
Link Posted: 8/9/2014 1:03:37 PM EDT
[#4]
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Agreed.

This world is run by ignoramuses and tyrants.
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There was strategy?

Remove ROEs and win a war against stone age opponent with AKs. Otherwise stay home.

Agreed.

This world is run by ignoramuses and tyrants.


 It surely will be if we cant handle a bunch of unwashed, latently gay, murder monkeys from setting up their own country and striking out at us.

  Bomb them any place they mass in the north, and then any place they mass in the south once the Iraqi government dumps Maliki.
Link Posted: 8/9/2014 1:05:33 PM EDT
[#5]
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Yay, more wars.
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More boots are on the ground in Iraq right now than at the start of Afghanistan.
Link Posted: 8/9/2014 1:15:41 PM EDT
[#6]

Quoted:


It seems that might be the best way to go. Work with the Kurds like we did the Northern Alliance. Provide them with air support, advisors and people to help them coordinate fire support. Do likewise with any other groups in Iraq who are actually willing to fight back against ISIS. There are only what, about 10,000 ISIS fighters in Iraq? It doesn't seem like it would require that much manpower to crush this bunch of goons provided they have ample backing from us. You don't need to start sending in BCTs to do that. I'm not talking about nation building here either. I'm simply talking about causing enough attrition among this bunch to make them impotent, then leaving.
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Absolutely.  We were highly effective in Afghanistan with just CIA/Special Ops running the show.  Things didn't start going to shit until State and Pentagon brass started getting their claws into it.



Every single dead jihadi is a victory for us and it comes at minimal risk.



 
Link Posted: 8/9/2014 1:16:47 PM EDT
[#7]
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Things in Afghanistan didn't start turning to shit until we started bringing in large numbers of regular ground troops and setting up FOBs everywhere. The initial strategy used in late 2001 rolled up the Taliban/Al-Qaeda pretty quickly and with low casualties on our side. The mistake was staying there beyond that point trying to turn Afghanistan into another little American-like society.
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Exactly. It was pretty effective to use foreign fighters backed by our airpower to take out our combined enemies, but it was fucking retarded to try and nation build.

We should have just stuck to smaller SF units based in areas where we were supported by the locals let the locals do the heavy lifting (regardless of their moral system), give them some air support when needed and then separately have our SF troops go out only at night to murder our own high value targets.

We are not and should not be a colonial power, as fucked up as the local belief systems could be we should not try to enforce our beliefs on them (their country their rules), we should have been there for only one reason to kill our enemies (Bin Laden, Al Qaeda), not to spread democracy.
Link Posted: 8/9/2014 1:17:01 PM EDT
[#8]
ISIS is bringing total war. Thus in return they should get it.

Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile
Link Posted: 8/9/2014 1:56:28 PM EDT
[#9]
If all you want to do is help the indigenous forces win tactical and operational victories, it works fine.  The advisors increase their confidence so they don't break and run; to be successful the enemy must form in a conventional formation and in turn the USAF can bomb them as they are easily targeted.

If you are supporting a guerrilla band, like the Northern Alliance in 2001-2002, it works well...up to the point when you want them to do something they don't want to do...like capture Osama Bin Laden at Tora Bora. Then it fails completely and you will wish you had US boots on the ground.  

If you have a government and an army on your side, and if they generally share the same goals as you, yes, it works.

In the 1972 Easter Offensive the NVA tried to overrun South Vietnam. The South Vietnamese Army, the ARVN, held up...okay...just long enough for US advisors to help call in very big airstrikes and pound the NVA to dust.

The NVA tried it again in 1975 and with no US Advisors and no airpower the ARVN folded.

A very small amount of US advisors with lots of air support would have stopped ISIS early in their attacks.  The problem, clearly, is that stopping the ISIS doesn't necessarily mean Maliki and the ISF will do what you want, but it is probably better then having your allies fold like wet cardboard...unless you completely don't give a damn at all what happens.

If you really really really want to use force to coerce and control  the people on the ground to do exactly what you want, then that is the time for conventional forces.  Do so when the cost is worth it to you. Because it will be high.
Link Posted: 8/9/2014 2:07:48 PM EDT
[#10]
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Every single dead jihadi is a victory for us and it comes at minimal risk.
 
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Bullshit.

Every dead jihadi is three more we indirectly create.
Link Posted: 8/9/2014 2:09:22 PM EDT
[#11]
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ISIS is bringing total war. Thus in return they should get it.

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Give me the BE numbers.
Link Posted: 8/9/2014 2:10:02 PM EDT
[#12]
Let's just turn the middle east into a glass scar on the face of the earth.



Islam is too evil to be of any use to modern civilization.
Link Posted: 8/9/2014 2:12:48 PM EDT
[#13]
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Let's just turn the middle east into a glass scar on the face of the earth.

Islam is too evil to be of any use to modern civilization.
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Can't be done for a thousand good reasons...

What is the plan B?
Link Posted: 8/9/2014 2:18:27 PM EDT
[#14]

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Can't be done for a thousand good reasons...



What is the plan B?
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Quoted:

Let's just turn the middle east into a glass scar on the face of the earth.



Islam is too evil to be of any use to modern civilization.





Can't be done for a thousand good reasons...



What is the plan B?
Send soldiers over there and tie their hands in engagements so they are big walking targets.

 



Call "mission accomplished" when enough towns are turned into smouldering fuckholes.
Link Posted: 8/9/2014 2:21:54 PM EDT
[#15]
We should just step back and give the Kurds a tactical nuke, but tell the world we gave them a dozen.

They turn ISIS to glass, and no one fucks with them again, thinking they have 11 more.
Link Posted: 8/9/2014 2:23:43 PM EDT
[#16]
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Send soldiers over there and tie their hands in engagements so they are big walking targets.  

Call "mission accomplished" when enough towns are turned into smouldering fuckholes.
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They already are smoldering fuck holes.

What can we destroy that will tell them to stop?

The Mosul Dam?
Link Posted: 8/9/2014 2:40:10 PM EDT
[#17]

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Bullshit.



Every dead jihadi is three more we indirectly create.
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Quoted:



Every single dead jihadi is a victory for us and it comes at minimal risk.

 




Bullshit.



Every dead jihadi is three more we indirectly create.


Bullshit.



The people you speak of are already salafis who are just waiting for an opportunity/excuse.  If the 'jihadis' are alive, they are actively recruiting.  If they are dead, they are recruiting from beyond the grave.  The only answer is to keep their capabilities minimal through attrition.
 
Link Posted: 8/9/2014 2:49:09 PM EDT
[#18]
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Bullshit.

The people you speak of are already salafis who are just waiting for an opportunity/excuse.  If the 'jihadis' are alive, they are actively recruiting.  If they are dead, they are recruiting from beyond the grave.  The only answer is to keep their capabilities minimal through attrition.




 
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Quoted:
Quoted:

Every single dead jihadi is a victory for us and it comes at minimal risk.
 


Bullshit.

Every dead jihadi is three more we indirectly create.

Bullshit.

The people you speak of are already salafis who are just waiting for an opportunity/excuse.  If the 'jihadis' are alive, they are actively recruiting.  If they are dead, they are recruiting from beyond the grave.  The only answer is to keep their capabilities minimal through attrition.




 



Oh...attrition warfare is the plan?

How many $200 Rent-a-hajis do we smoke that equals one Humvee with four Joes in it?

Link Posted: 8/9/2014 4:34:06 PM EDT
[#19]
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Really? If the Taliban were so defeated in 2001, then why do they still exist as a legitimate threat to re-take the government of afghanistan?
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because they weren't concerned with national borders, and crossed into pakistan with impunity.  And the pakistanis didn't do much to stop much less crush them.  There might have been some US military operations into pakistan, but it was little different that what happened in the vietnam war, with not being able to move large concentrations of forces and bomb with impunity to destroy the enemy no matter where it ran.

This is the way things will be from now on fighting the islamists, until some future leader sees that the enemy sees no distinction between national borders, there is only islam.

This would have been a perfect opportunity to use some form of germ/biological warfare...contaminate a few enemy fighters, they exfiltrate into pakistan, and soon the whole village that is harboring them is dead, or nearly wiped out.  Repeat until there is a de facto exclusionary zone so deep and so feared no one will cross it.
Do you want to play nice or save western civilization?
Link Posted: 8/9/2014 4:57:38 PM EDT
[#20]
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  Obviously you've never met any of these guys. I am adamantly opposed to genocide but the Yezidis are shit eating devil worshipers (seriously) and after centuries of inbreeding have serious physical/psychological issues that make them entirely unsuitable for training. The Peshmerga on the other hand would clean ISIS clock if they the equipment and didn't think Maliki would stab them in the back and try to re take Kirkuk while they were out fighting in the west.

  Also the situation with Turkey and the Kurds have changed substantially over the years. The Kurds in Turkey make up a strong voting block with the current government and Turkey has signed an agreement with the KRG over oil.
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The problem with boots on the ground, no matter how many of them you send, is eventually they have to return home. Iraq was in pretty stable condition when the last of our forces left there. We could no doubt go in with another 100,000 troops and clear out this ISIS rabble. But someday those troops would have to be brought home. At some point, the locals there are going to have to take control of their own destiny. They can't and will never learn to do that if we do everything for them. I am all for offering them whatever support they need to defeat ISIS. But it will have to be Iraqis themselves doing the lifting on the ground.


They are doing that now. Don't like it? Well you are going to have to send someone to change things.

A perfumed prince in the sky at 20,000 feet dropping ordinance is a mainly uneducated manner is not as convincing as GD thinks.


Would the Kurds and Iraqi Army benefit greatly if they just had US air support and maybe some intel (and in the case of the Kurds, heavier weapons)? Nobody is saying that dropping bombs from aircraft alone is going to decisively defeat ISIS. But having that level of support would give them a much better chance of getting this situation under control than they would have otherwise. I don't think the locals can hold against ISIS without assistance. But with US air support, I think their odds of doing just that go way up.


ISIS wouldn't have made it 10 miles past the border without local support. ISIS in Iraq at this point is all the Sunnis pissed off at the Central government. Why should we back the inept Shia's who've systematically excluded them from the process at the behest of Iran since we left? You are essentially advocating air striking Peter to save Paul at this point so to speak.

Arming and supporting the Yzedi and Kurds is probably the best and safest bet at this point. It is also smart of the admin to be claiming it is to prevent genocide. If we claim or are seen as supporting an independent Kurdistan, that opens up another huge shitstorm and pisses off a lot more people, including some pretty powerful NATO allies.



  Obviously you've never met any of these guys. I am adamantly opposed to genocide but the Yezidis are shit eating devil worshipers (seriously) and after centuries of inbreeding have serious physical/psychological issues that make them entirely unsuitable for training. The Peshmerga on the other hand would clean ISIS clock if they the equipment and didn't think Maliki would stab them in the back and try to re take Kirkuk while they were out fighting in the west.

  Also the situation with Turkey and the Kurds have changed substantially over the years. The Kurds in Turkey make up a strong voting block with the current government and Turkey has signed an agreement with the KRG over oil.


Actually yes, I have met many of the Yzedis. My interpreter was a Yzedi, and I spent about 3 months in Sinjar and 12 months in the surrounding area. They don't inbreed anymore than any of the rest of those goat herders. Actually, I found it was the Turkoman who were the biggest fans of man love Thursday and marrying first cousins. I'm pretty sure the Yzedi aren't actually devil worshipers. That's just what the Muslims think... They also think we are the devil. So according to them the Yzedi worship us?

It's good that Turkey is coming along with regard to the Kurds. I hadn't heard that, but haven't been following it very closely the last few years.
Link Posted: 8/9/2014 5:09:09 PM EDT
[#21]
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Oh...attrition warfare is the plan?

How many $200 Rent-a-hajis do we smoke that equals one Humvee with four Joes in it?

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Quoted:
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Every single dead jihadi is a victory for us and it comes at minimal risk.
 


Bullshit.

Every dead jihadi is three more we indirectly create.

Bullshit.

The people you speak of are already salafis who are just waiting for an opportunity/excuse.  If the 'jihadis' are alive, they are actively recruiting.  If they are dead, they are recruiting from beyond the grave.  The only answer is to keep their capabilities minimal through attrition.




 



Oh...attrition warfare is the plan?

How many $200 Rent-a-hajis do we smoke that equals one Humvee with four Joes in it?



Never mind that. How do you effectively attrit an enemy with a small ground force supported by Air? Do you really think they will be driving around in big convoys with flags one week after the bombs start falling?

Apparently for most of GD that means you are really kicking ass and taking names. Because you dropped a few bombs, made a few cool youtube videos, and drove your enemy underground. And it was cheap and easy with minimal risk. The potus can give speeches about the big win in major combat ops.

This while your enemy hides, recruits, and waits you out for the inevitable reality that you are not committed, and won't decisively win. The minute the SF guys go home, and the planes quit bombing, you can claim another victory over America.

GD Strategy 101: Do what is easy and feels good right now, with no thought as to what comes next, or consideration for the limitations of a small force with air support.
Link Posted: 8/10/2014 5:52:08 PM EDT
[#22]

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Oh...attrition warfare is the plan?



How many $200 Rent-a-hajis do we smoke that equals one Humvee with four Joes in it?



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Quoted:


Quoted:


Quoted:



Every single dead jihadi is a victory for us and it comes at minimal risk.

 




Bullshit.



Every dead jihadi is three more we indirectly create.


Bullshit.



The people you speak of are already salafis who are just waiting for an opportunity/excuse.  If the 'jihadis' are alive, they are actively recruiting.  If they are dead, they are recruiting from beyond the grave.  The only answer is to keep their capabilities minimal through attrition.
 






Oh...attrition warfare is the plan?



How many $200 Rent-a-hajis do we smoke that equals one Humvee with four Joes in it?





As opposed to what?  The Clinton doctrine?  Sure.  Let's just ignore it and hope they don't become strong enough to bring the fight to our soil.  Worked great in the 90's.  Maybe if we're quiet enough, they'll just forget about the 'far enemy'



I said nothing about bringing in ground forces.  I'm talking about a handful of teams that are probably already in place.  A miniscule footprint.  There's risk involved in everything, especially working in special forces or CIA.  



I'm the last person that wants more involvement overseas but when a threat emerges you have to deal with it.  And the earlier, the better.  How many lives would have been saved if we had put even minimal effort into derailing the Taliban in its infancy?  The same goes for UBL and AQ.  





 
Link Posted: 8/10/2014 5:57:38 PM EDT
[#23]

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More boots are on the ground in Iraq right now than at the start of Afghanistan.
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Quoted:

Yay, more wars.




More boots are on the ground in Iraq right now than at the start of Afghanistan.
except bush's orders were: "capture or kill any AQ/Taliban by any means necessary."



they also had a SHIT TON of air cover.



 
Link Posted: 8/10/2014 6:10:56 PM EDT
[#24]

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Bullshit.



Every dead jihadi is three more we indirectly create.
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Quoted:



Every single dead jihadi is a victory for us and it comes at minimal risk.

 




Bullshit.



Every dead jihadi is three more we indirectly create.
'all our fault'  right.. gotcha.



 
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