Posted: 4/4/2026 8:22:35 AM EDT
 REWIND: Revisiting the 1973 oil crisis Obviously it is different circumstances but the affects seem similar as far as prices etc. We haven't seen the shortages...yet. |
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Quoted: Yes. I said that yesterday. Worse crisis since the oil embargo's. Potentially lining up to be even worse than those. We didn't have nearly as much of a globally diverse production capability, nor did we have such a large domestic production capability at that time. I'm not trying to be snarky. Your words tend to have iron in them. I'm just curious how you're seeing this turn into lines at the pump again? I'm busy stocking up on specialty lubricants for race cars and motorcycles. |
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Quoted: I wasn't alive for the first one, but how is this going to be worse? We didn't have nearly as much of a globally diverse production capability, nor did we have such a large domestic production capability at that time. I'm not trying to be snarky. Your words tend to have iron in them. I'm just curious how you're seeing this turn into lines at the pump again? I'm busy stocking up on specialty lubricants for race cars and motorcycles. Quoted: Quoted: Yes. I said that yesterday. Worse crisis since the oil embargo's. Potentially lining up to be even worse than those. We didn't have nearly as much of a globally diverse production capability, nor did we have such a large domestic production capability at that time. I'm not trying to be snarky. Your words tend to have iron in them. I'm just curious how you're seeing this turn into lines at the pump again? I'm busy stocking up on specialty lubricants for race cars and motorcycles. Here’s the catch. It’s not going to be lines at the pumps. Sure, the U.S. makes plenty of fuel. That’s easy. It’s specialty chemicals. It’s lubricants. It’s plastics. It’s going to cause demand destruction. Data centers? Unable to get PG for their cooling. Power plants? Not able to get turbine oils. Jets? Unable to get oil for their engines. Semi conductor manufacturing? Being cut back. Want something food wise that’s out of season, or not grown locally? You won’t be able to get it. Shipping costs, lack of plastics. Fertilizer is going to be too expensive, so you’re going to see less food grown. Which means food prices are going to go up, or simply not going to be grown. There’s so many dominos that are coming in the next 10-20 days till the end of the year now, in terms of global shock. We live in a much more complicated world than 1973. That requires niche products and systems to operate. Those systems are now going to be tested. Manufacturing, construction, etc. all going to be hit with this wave. Which will directly affect employment. |
| Electric cars, Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi and Iraq have oil pipelines. Lot of oil producers had been holding back production over low price. Venezuela oil. There are oil tankers ignoring Iran and going through anyway. Remember everytime Iran lauches anything they have high chance those doing the lauching die. Iran not blocking their own oil tankers. China has a oil reserve so they are not going to be in a rush to buy up over priced oil. Lot of the oil price screaming is California which has high gas taxes and got rid of their refineries. |
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Quoted: I get the impression everyone starting and posting these doom-threads was born this century. And didn't live thru. Invasion of Kuwait 9/11 Invasion of Iraq I get the impression that people that post shit like this and “har har i drive a Tesla” or “I don’t care about gas prices.” Has, zero clue about the petroleum industry. |
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Quoted: I get the impression that people that post shit like this and “har har i drive a Tesla” or “I don’t care about gas prices.” Has, zero clue about the petroleum industry. Are you making the argument the petrol industry is less advanced than it was in the 70's, or 80's, or 90's, or 00's, or 10's?. FFS. |
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Quoted: Are you making the argument the petrol industry is less advanced than it was in the 70's, or 80's, or 90's, or 00's, or 10's?. FFS. Quoted: Quoted: I get the impression that people that post shit like this and “har har i drive a Tesla” or “I don’t care about gas prices.” Has, zero clue about the petroleum industry. Are you making the argument the petrol industry is less advanced than it was in the 70's, or 80's, or 90's, or 00's, or 10's?. FFS. How did you take that out of what I said? The petroleum industry is far more advanced. But with the advancement… it’s far more nuanced. Which means there’s not a back up plan. And if you knew about the petroleum industry. You would know this. |
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Quoted: Not even close. ETA - Now: pull up to pump. Fill up. Price higher. Bitch and moan. Then: wait in line based on license plate. Might get fuel, might not. “THEN: tempers were frickin’ short and there were LONG lines of cars and fistfights for cutting in at the pumps and even a few gunfights and killings. Police were routinely called to gas stations to keep order. Times seemed a bit like:  Now: Much different. No gas lines and the higher prices have not induced the same violence between or among those seeking gas. |
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https://www.dollartimes.com/inflation/items/price-of-a-gallon-of-gas-in-1973 But DOOM is still possible |
Nothing bad has happened to me personally yet, therefore it’s a big nothing burger?  1) The oil products, not crude oil, imported into the US from the gulf countries are critically important to US industry and are not easily replaced. 2) The west coast of the US imports gasoline from Asia. Shortages there mean there will not be exports to the US. We don’t have the refining and shipping capacity to make up for this shortfall. 3) The US depends on products made in countries that get their energy from the gulf. Auto parts, steel, electronics, consumer goods, etc will all be affected. 4) Prices on everything will rise with energy prices. This general inflation hasn’t even been felt yet because it takes time for price discovery to work its way down to consumers. It’s like half of arfcom can’t see, or chooses to ignore, the obvious consequences of a world wide energy shortage. |
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We recently got to see the rebound effects from a 9% drop in global oil consumption. The knock-on effects were significant. We've had other periods of decreased consumption, but those weren't the step change that we saw a few years ago. 2026 is another step change thrown into the equation, more isolated than what we saw in 2020, but a step change nonetheless. Strictly with respect to oil, this could very well be a more drastic step than anything seen in the '70s. |
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Quoted: Not even close. ETA - Now: pull up to pump. Fill up. Price higher. Bitch and moan. Then: wait in line based on license plate. Might get fuel, might not. Now: nation of pussies. This 100% correct. This generation has never known hard times. They are soft, weak and pathetic and will throw in the towel at the first sign of resistance while crying about some irrational bullshit that has no basis in reality. Then need to realize that they are pussies and shut the fuck up. I would tell them to harden the fuck up, but they are so entitled they wouldn’t understand what that means. |
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Quoted: Here’s the catch. It’s not going to be lines at the pumps. Sure, the U.S. makes plenty of fuel. That’s easy. It’s specialty chemicals. It’s lubricants. It’s plastics. It’s going to cause demand destruction. Data centers? Unable to get PG for their cooling. Power plants? Not able to get turbine oils. Jets? Unable to get oil for their engines. Semi conductor manufacturing? Being cut back. Want something food wise that’s out of season, or not grown locally? You won’t be able to get it. Shipping costs, lack of plastics. Fertilizer is going to be too expensive, so you’re going to see less food grown. Which means food prices are going to go up, or simply not going to be grown. There’s so many dominos that are coming in the next 10-20 days till the end of the year now, in terms of global shock. We live in a much more complicated world than 1973. That requires niche products and systems to operate. Those systems are now going to be tested. Manufacturing, construction, etc. all going to be hit with this wave. Which will directly affect employment. I'm not convinced that there's going to be a huge shortage of nitrogen based fertilizer in the US. The latest figures I can find is that we only import 6-13% of supply. The rest is made domestically. Of that 6-13% that's imported only a small fraction of that comes from the Gulf region. A larger fraction of that small amount comes from Canada. (And may or may not still be buying some from Russia.) Price is going to depend on how much pressure is put on domestic natural gas feed stock. And that pressure can only really come from increased export demand for LNG. It's pretty much the only way gas can leave the country in any quantity. |
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Quoted:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YMb_hbt1NLw|15Obviously it is different circumstances but the affects seem similar as far as prices etc. We haven't seen the shortages...yet. Obviously, they are not the same. I remember paying 25 cents a gallon one night and then the price skyrocketed. To this day, we see the effects of OPEC's greed. We whine but submit to the shakedown. Iran will soon be extinct, and all cowardly fear will focus on something else. |
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Quoted: I'm not convinced that there's going to be a huge shortage of nitrogen based fertilizer in the US. The latest figures I can find is that we only import 6-13% of supply. The rest is made domestically. Of that 6-13% that's imported only a small fraction of that comes from the Gulf region. A larger fraction of that small amount comes from Canada. (And may or may not still be buying some from Russia.) Price is going to depend on how much pressure is put on domestic natural gas feed stock. And that pressure can only really come from increased export demand for LNG. It's pretty much the only way gas can leave the country in any quantity. Quoted: Quoted: Here’s the catch. It’s not going to be lines at the pumps. Sure, the U.S. makes plenty of fuel. That’s easy. It’s specialty chemicals. It’s lubricants. It’s plastics. It’s going to cause demand destruction. Data centers? Unable to get PG for their cooling. Power plants? Not able to get turbine oils. Jets? Unable to get oil for their engines. Semi conductor manufacturing? Being cut back. Want something food wise that’s out of season, or not grown locally? You won’t be able to get it. Shipping costs, lack of plastics. Fertilizer is going to be too expensive, so you’re going to see less food grown. Which means food prices are going to go up, or simply not going to be grown. There’s so many dominos that are coming in the next 10-20 days till the end of the year now, in terms of global shock. We live in a much more complicated world than 1973. That requires niche products and systems to operate. Those systems are now going to be tested. Manufacturing, construction, etc. all going to be hit with this wave. Which will directly affect employment. I'm not convinced that there's going to be a huge shortage of nitrogen based fertilizer in the US. The latest figures I can find is that we only import 6-13% of supply. The rest is made domestically. Of that 6-13% that's imported only a small fraction of that comes from the Gulf region. A larger fraction of that small amount comes from Canada. (And may or may not still be buying some from Russia.) Price is going to depend on how much pressure is put on domestic natural gas feed stock. And that pressure can only really come from increased export demand for LNG. It's pretty much the only way gas can leave the country in any quantity. Granulated urea exports are a thing. The supply chain is going to shift from Asia, to the U.S. which will put more demand on our products. It already has. That’s why the WTI pricing has gone nutty over Brent. The Asian market is already shifting to buy crude from the U.S. Fertilizer will be no different over the next year. So prices will continue to be high. As well as the increase in demand of urea product through DEF, for transportation and power generation. Add in regional outages in facilities because they’re seemingly managed by crackheads. But that’s my personal opinion on them. “Unexpected” maintenance at peak season… when the world is fucked. Yeah, okay. Oh and it’s going to take longer than planned. Smooth move. |
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Quoted: I get the impression that people that post shit like this and “har har i drive a Tesla” or “I don’t care about gas prices.” Has, zero clue about the petroleum industry. 6,000 major products come from petroleum. From the fibers in your clothes to the parmecuticals in your last prescription, we use oil for damn near everything these days. Transportation fuel is just one. Wright is worried the markets will burn out if the worst case plays out. I was speaking with Dan Hancu last week and he pretty much agrees. They are really worried about national security and secondary market effects at this point. This is a very serious situation. Was also in a meeting with Continental and then Chord, they are not Increasing drilling in the Bakken at this time. They feel the timing is too risky. They are are predicting the price will cause sharp demand retraction and a expect significant economic recession and don't want to be holding the burning bag of dogshit when it all stops. No new drilling rigs in the Bakken and while I don't have the direct knowledge I suspect there is a similar sentiment in the Permian. I was also just told we are laying off approximately 25% of our staff in 2 weeks as a result of the deteriorating situation in the energy sector. This is not internet hearsay or doom posting. This is reality. |
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Quoted: Granulated urea exports are a thing. The supply chain is going to shift from Asia, to the U.S. which will put more demand on our products. It already has. That’s why the WTI pricing has gone nutty over Brent. The Asian market is already shifting to buy crude from the U.S. Fertilizer will be no different over the next year. So prices will continue to be high. As well as the increase in demand of urea product through DEF, for transportation and power generation. Add in regional outages in facilities because they’re seemingly managed by crackheads. But that’s my personal opinion on them. “Unexpected” maintenance at peak season… when the world is fucked. Yeah, okay. Oh and it’s going to take longer than planned. Smooth move. Do you have access to this months export data on nitrogen based fertilizer ? Honest question. I don't. I remember the "fertilizer panic" when Russia first invaded Ukraine. There was a lot of pearl clutching, pillow biting and hand wringing everyone is going to starve news bites. |
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Quoted: Well, If Foxtrot is concerned, then I certainly am too. This is not good. Same - dude knows his shit and his market. He’s worried? I’m worried. I feel it’s gonna be pretty fuckin’ bad. And I’m still waiting to figure out what we’ve no shit actually accomplished for the average American with this latest bumblefuck into the ME. |
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Wasn't alive, but my dad says it was worse back then. Also not buying the doom. With all respect to Foxtrot, all I see is oil price doom, to be followed by AI doom, to be followed by the country going bankrupt doom. If I have faith in one thing, its that the people who run the world will find a way to make their money, even if they have to import a million slaves to build a pipeline at gunpoint. Also, maybe hinging the entire world economy on Iran being nice was a bad idea. |
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Quoted: Do you have access to this months export data on nitrogen based fertilizer ? Honest question. I don't. I remember the "fertilizer panic" when Russia first invaded Ukraine. There was a lot of pearl clutching, pillow biting and hand wringing everyone is going to starve news bites. Quoted: Quoted: Granulated urea exports are a thing. The supply chain is going to shift from Asia, to the U.S. which will put more demand on our products. It already has. That’s why the WTI pricing has gone nutty over Brent. The Asian market is already shifting to buy crude from the U.S. Fertilizer will be no different over the next year. So prices will continue to be high. As well as the increase in demand of urea product through DEF, for transportation and power generation. Add in regional outages in facilities because they’re seemingly managed by crackheads. But that’s my personal opinion on them. “Unexpected” maintenance at peak season… when the world is fucked. Yeah, okay. Oh and it’s going to take longer than planned. Smooth move. Do you have access to this months export data on nitrogen based fertilizer ? Honest question. I don't. I remember the "fertilizer panic" when Russia first invaded Ukraine. There was a lot of pearl clutching, pillow biting and hand wringing everyone is going to starve news bites. There was a huge increase in DEF prices then. My cost was almost $1.80 / gallon then. But, no. I don’t get export data. I just get the NOLA index movements. Which are going to be pretty wild for May I believe. |
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Quoted: Until now the greatest transfer of wealth based on mass propaganda was Covid...and the run by the globalist elite... A foreign nation is the heart of this one in conjunction with the globalist elite... This one is designed to break us. imo The Greatest Transfer of Wealth was the West purchasing Middle East Oil . Those fabulously incredibly wealthy petro states got super rich selling the Black Juice to the West. Bigger_Hammer  |