I'll repeat again, you have the choice between losing 5% or losing 10%, would you rather lose 5% or 10%?

He's going to beat the market and take -10%

Did you see JPow's statements from Friday? No flinch, it's going to get painful.

Exactly. They aren't keeping any secrets. Fed expects unemployment and market pains and so should everyone.

https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-the-meaning-of-dont-fight-the-fed-2466886

Been beating the market for over 2 decades. Again, beating inflation is what you need to do. Not losing much is still losing. If you're not beating inflation, inflation is beating you. That simple.

Inflation is beating everyone who owns a dollar. Inflation isn't a competitor in the market and you aren't going to beat it. This is why the fed is moving swiftly and decisively to get it under control. You might beat others in the market but it'll require significant risk in a world where the fed is dumping securities while acknowledging they will certainly exacerbate recession characteristics.

Actually, yes, inflation is a competitor in the market if by market you mean the purchasing power of your dollar. Why do you think people look at returns in "real" terms. The Fed is neither moving swiftly or decisively. If they were, rates would already be more than double what they are currently. The Fed and the profligate spenders in Congress have boxed everybody into a corner. If the Fed raises rates to what they should be to combat inflation, the .gov can't afford to service the debt. If they continue to enable the crack whore spending levels by printing more money and ZIRP, then inflation destroys everybody. This is what is so infuriating.

Sounds like you'll be the next Michael Burry.

You got sumpin goin on ahIght.    One day you workin a hotel desk, the next day, buying SUVs and BigBoats.

Sadly, I just see problems in DC and the Fed being sloughed off while kicking the can down the road. Eventually, this particular road they've taken dead ends and there's no place left to kick the can. And there's very little I can do about it.

That's right, don't give up you are the brink of a miracle.

It's called having 10 years of work finally pay off.

Already have.

The OP started this thread with an observation of the technical price action of the S&P 500.
He correctly pointed out the bullish nature of that price action.

The thread seems to have evolved more into a macroeconomic discussion, which doesn't
necessarily have anything to do with the price action of the market. This can be very frustrating
to investors, but is expected by traders.

Subject to change, we are still technically looking bullish, even after Fridays and todays pullback.

The S&P has pulled back from it's bullish breach of the 50% retracement level, but is still above it's
rising 50 day moving average. The Nasdaq as well.

Until the 50dma is violated, I'm going to continue to trade on the long side. Both day trades and short
swings.

Today, I bought OTM AAPL Sept 2 170 calls at 16 cents. I only have until the end of the week, but I
figure we should get a healthy bounce before then.

If you are feeling bearish, please post your trade for today and your reasoning.

Congrats man.  Good stuff.    I kinda have that going on too.   ‘Cept it’s 33 years. Nice to get a little ROI before we’re

Inflation is not a competitor. It’s a constant. It’s known, always there.

No, it isn't a constant, there can be deflation as well. Problem is the Fed is bound and determined not to allow deflation under any circumstances. This destroys the ebb and flow of a free-market economy. Like I said, if the Fed continues to enable profligate spending and debasing our currency in the process, we're all screwed.

Long term it is a well known and expected constant.

I think they have kicked the can to the end of this road and found a concrete wall at the end.

The entire premise is it wasn’t your money because your borrowed it to start. Only the ROI is yours.

They are going to swing too hard. Deleveraging is going to be ugly and is deflationary.

while i respect your enthusiasm and optimism, while generally disagreeing, that is by far the dumbest thing you've said.

considering the past year of the biden admin and fed denying it, calling it transitory, etc, etc, it's beyond stupid to argue that it's either well-known or constant when it is clearly neither.   if it were constant, the market wouldn't wait anxiously each month for the CPI numbers to be released.  duh

What I said was true. Inflation is a constant. Don’t think about it as a numerical constant that never changes.

Long term this variable constant can be planned for.  Even used to one’s advantage.  It is well known. Given all of history. There is always inflation long term. It’s a constant.

Think in 30 year chunks.

Long term it is neither well known nor expected since it changes constantly. The problem is the Fed wants to always keep inflation positive and that destroys the deflationary parts of the business cycle which have to happen from time to time.

No, long term it cannot. That's part of the problem. Inflation can skyrocket and deflation can occur (in spite of the Fed). Over the long term, the volatility kills economies.

That doesn't account for risk, I'm afraid. For example, the market goes down 80% and doesn't recover for years. You need the money now, on account of the crashed economy. You are forced to sell your stocks for 20 cents on the dollar that you paid from your mortgage money. You have lost 80%, plus 3% per year on the interest over 30 years...

Whereas if you have cash (which is a bad idea in a recessionary environment), say you lose 10% to inflation. The stock market goes down 80%. You buy stocks paying 15% dividends at a PE ratio of 4. The 10% you lost to inflation gets demolished by those 15% dividend payments.

Now say you are sitting in Gold. It's at near all time lows compared to the price of the S&P. When the market crashes, everyone runs with their money. They don't want to endure 10% inflation. They pile into gold. Within a couple of years, you gain 2x (and are on your way to 17x, which is what happened from 1970 to 1980). You start don't have perfect timing, so you start selling your gold, and buying those low PE stocks, and make about 10x from sitting in gold (although you lose 2x to inflation). If we look at the 1970s, stocks didn't really do anything (except lose value to inflation) until 1981 when Regan took office and the democrats stopped destroying the economy. Gold went crazy, and then did nothing from 1981 to 2000 except drop to all time lows (inflation adjusted). Then it went crazy again from 2000 to 2021. Now it's sitting about where it was in 1970 (compared to the price of the S&P 500).

My point with all of this is that history is a lot crazier than people like Spidey make it sound. Bear markets are typically no big deal as long as the government does not get involved. Now ask yourself what just happened over the covid years.

Ask yourself what happened since 2008. Ask yourself what's happening in Japan over the last 30 years due to their demographic implosion. Now ask yourself what is about to happen in countries like China, Russia, and most of Europe with their looming demographic implosions. Now ask yourself what happens when 20% of SP500 companies declare bankruptcy due to rising interest rates. Now ask yourself what happens when the remaining 80% lose 20% of revenues from foreign countries that are imploding demographically. Now ask yourself what happens when American's have to cut discretionary spending to the bone due to inflation.

Anyway, I'm asking myself these questions and I don't have a whole lot of good answers to those questions.

That is a LOT of assumption.

Assuming you must sell.
Assuming the market drops 80%.
Assuming a stock pays 15%.
Assuming gold doubles because people park money in it. (It hasn't been a good hedge against 3% inflation, never mind 8-10%).
Assume that 20% go bankrupt without being traded for other companies.

There are possible outcomes for a bunch of completely failing possibilities. But your situations are end of the economic world. I'm more of the 20-30% off the top of companies that are trading at PE of 70+.

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Almost anything can be a direct competitor to stocks. How that works is extremely simple. Buy something that declines less than stocks. Buy something that appreciates more than stocks. Sell it and get into stocks at the appropriate time.  

Inflation is not a constant. It's not well known, that's the whole point of it. And, deflation has been going on for hundreds of years, you just have to hold one of the assets that gets to enjoy it (gold, oil, real estate bought with debt). In the 1800s, deflation was running at about 5% a year. Who knows what deflation is like now, but I know you can buy way more and better stuff with an ounce of gold now as compared to 1800.

thanks man, you too!

Yeah tell me about it. I almost just shit canned my biz in 2018, but I doubled down and it paid off.

Tuesday RALLY!

This is where we were yesterday..

All your moneys belong to me.


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Gaps filled. Chop chop.

What is the value of those Apple calls now?

The rally was short lived lol

oops


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booooo

I am going SPXL at the open tomorrow!

For a quickie ?

Shut up and buy the dip faggots

Anybody regularly investing in tax deferred or taxable accounts are doing so.

Spidey will never admit he might have actually been wrong on any or one of his forecasts.

Buy! Buy! Buy!

Duh! You will win, eventually. Probably. The market always recovers.



Spidey, I am only half kidding. Have you EVER been wrong in you entire life? Or misstaken about ANYTHING?

Where else you gonna build wealth with pretty much guaranteed success?

ETA: Guaranteed was back then, this is now. Sadly.

Watch out, he may run to the mods if you cut too close to the bone.  Good thing is, you have to get through many layers of ______ to get there

Variable constant, is this that new math I've been hearing about?

Been hiking, mountain biking, paddling and fishing around the PNW the past month, while being short.  All the gains against me pretty much got wiped out on Friday as I was flying back - maybe I should take up a fund to keep me on the road so the markets will stay up?  Anyway, added to short position of a mortgage company Monday that had horrendous earnings and outlook while I was out, but the stock price remains unphased.  Crashed earlier in the year and caught that, expecting round two.  Also a happy short of chewy, just announced the usual crap results and is down ~10% after hours.  Pet related along with phony housing bubble companies are going to die.  I'm not as sure as I was prior that we're going into a severe recession - job market looks strong out there.  But I have no doubt pedo joe will fk things up whenever and wherever possible.

All the time.

Most all of my money mgmt and investing posts come from the huge mistakes I made earlier in life. And to combat all the doomerism with sunshine.

Hindsight is a bitch.  And that hindsight allows me to not be emotional with money.

Why did you reply twice to one comment? Did you reevaluate?

No one is perfect, and I would like to believe that also includes you. I do want to believe things will improve, but where is the confidence?

I told pops in July that I was pretty sure that by the EOY (December 31) that the market would still be down from then. Time will tell.

Let's let things just play out and let the cards fall where they may. As needed, make the call out when the time comes.