October 17 Electoral Map - Page 2

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[ARCHIVED THREAD] - October 17 Electoral Map (Page 2 of 2)

Posted: 10/17/2004 1:52:50 PM EDT

[#1]

Quoted:
Quoted:
...and the map moves again as Kerry loses a point in the ABC/WaPo tracking poll today at 5:00PM. Kerry ticks slightly lover. Bush now has a 4 point lead on average.

LOL... it has been a great weekend... now if the Yankees sweep the Botox tonight, life will be grand!

agreed, though i was kinda hoping for a Houston-Boston World Series right before the election.

Posted: 10/17/2004 2:10:08 PM EDT

[#2]

And if Boston had won? No thanks! I'll take a NY-Houston world series with Bush sitting in the Mayor's box with Rudy, Pataki and Bloomberg... the 9-11 Crew and the current mayor of NY who says we need Bush to keep the City safe from another 9-11. Right on the NJ border where we are so close to a major upset... Yup, we need heavy penetration into the NY/NJ/PA media market with the entire crew on camera constantly.

Posted: 10/17/2004 2:11:16 PM EDT

[#3]

Quoted:
I'll take a NY-Houston world series with Bush sitting in the Mayor's box with Rudy, Pataki and Bloomberg... the 9-11 Crew and the current mayor of NY who says we need Bush to keep the City safe from another 9-11. Right on the NJ border where we are so close to a major upset... Yup, we need heavy penetration into the NY/NJ/PA media market with the entire crew on camera constantly.

that will be great press

Posted: 10/17/2004 2:18:09 PM EDT

[#4]

Quoted:
Quoted:
I'll take a NY-Houston world series with Bush sitting in the Mayor's box with Rudy, Pataki and Bloomberg... the 9-11 Crew and the current mayor of NY who says we need Bush to keep the City safe from another 9-11. Right on the NJ border where we are so close to a major upset... Yup, we need heavy penetration into the NY/NJ/PA media market with the entire crew on camera constantly.
that will be great press

This young padawan is why you need to pay close attention... you must find the political upside in any event.

Posted: 10/17/2004 2:46:43 PM EDT

[#5]

Like I read over on DUh, the only poll to worry about is the one on 11/2.

wganz
¶

Posted: 10/17/2004 2:58:06 PM EDT

[#6]

Quoted:
Like I read over on DUh, the only poll to worry about is the one on 11/2.

wganz
¶

Ummmm, actually thats a bullshit line... the only ones that will decide the day are the 50 state polls on November 2. HOWEVER, if you don't think polls play a vital role in campaigns and for issue identification, message crafting, fund raising and voter mobilization... well, you are sadly mistaken. Polls just need to be put into context.

DUh is singing that line now because NONE of the polls are going their way.

Posted: 10/17/2004 3:31:00 PM EDT

[#7]

Required reading for today:

www.nationalreview.com/kerry/kerry200410140840.asp

Posted: 10/17/2004 4:31:35 PM EDT

[#8]

Required reading for today:

www.nationalreview.com/kerry/kerry200410140840.asp

I agree with that article. The polls out now are more than likely not telling the full story. Which way though will it swing?? Is there enough hatred of Bush out there to inspire people to vote for Kerry????

I don't think so. Remeber during the primaries when the dems were saying they were having a record turnout? Rember the dems said this was because the Dems were united against Bush?? When all was said and done I heard the primary turnout was actually below the 2000 numbers.

This could be good news for Bush.

Whomever wins I believe will do so by a substantial margin in the neighbor hood of 4 to 6 points. Lets hope it's Bush. I think it will be Bush and I hope to hell I'm not wrong.

The one really good news for us is that all of the polls are trending our way.

Posted: 10/17/2004 5:14:48 PM EDT

[#9]

Bush opens up 5 point lead in Oregon

New Oregon poll: Bush, Wu, Measures 34 & 36 win
President Bush has opened a five-point lead on Democratic rival John Kerry in Oregon in the closing weeks before Election Day, according to a new poll of likely statewide voters conducted by a prominent Portland pollster. The results released this weekend by Riley Research Associates show Bush is favored 48 percent to Kerry’s 43 percent. The poll also surveyed voters on Oregon's 1st Congressional District race as well as ballot Measure 34 on forest conservation and Measure 36 banning gay marriage.

Posted: 10/17/2004 5:35:17 PM EDT

[#10]

I am sure electoral-projection will ignore this tommorow.

Posted: 10/17/2004 5:40:25 PM EDT

[#11]

Count on them ignoring it... that's fine, let the Dems get complacent. We know the truth. Threads like this generate input like this from our eyes and ears all over the nation.

Posted: 10/17/2004 5:46:41 PM EDT

[#12]

EDITED: Adding link: denbeste.nu/special/polltrends.shtml

REQUIRED READING:

This analysis of the polls by Stephen Den Beste.

If you don't follow bloggers, this guy's so intelligent that I expect that if one were to meet him in person, the first thing you'd notice would be the lightning bolts arcing about his cranium.

His bottom line: The Polls are being purposefully skewed to engineer a "kerry comeback" and create a bandwagon effect onto which the undecideds can jump.

Posted: 10/17/2004 5:50:16 PM EDT

[#13]

"kerry comeback" and create a bandwagon effect onto which the undecideds can jump.

I can't imagine that the pollsters have all got together for some great conspiracy to create a story so Kerry will win. I think he is creating an excuse should Bush loose.

I try not to subscribe to tinfoil hats and conspiracy theories.

Posted: 10/17/2004 5:55:12 PM EDT

[#14]

Read the link I added above, particularly the interesting comment that the bulk of the pollsters abruptly changed "sampling" methods right after the 1st debate. If you change the "methodology" right at the point of the independent variable you are trying to measure (i.e., the effect of the debates) then you fuck up the whole purpose of the endeavor.

Posted: 10/17/2004 6:00:10 PM EDT

[#15]

The data for September, however, is clearly an anomaly

This comes from his page. I don't see this as an anomaly. The Swift Vets had been out for a month and Bush was coming off of a very good convention in which he delivered a very good speach. For the enire month of August the main topic of discussion on all of the cable news shows was the swift vets. Even the democrats admit that the SBV had hurt Kerry.

Posted: 10/17/2004 6:06:55 PM EDT

[#16]

I think it is a mix of both... the methodologies were cleearly changed midstream in a way that benefitted Kerry and the SBVFT did do damage.

Posted: 10/17/2004 6:10:32 PM EDT

[#17]

Also he shows a massive drop off at the end of september. The end of september was when Bush had his first debate. After that debate I called a good friend totally mortified and told him Bush just lost the election. I'm thinking I overreacted.

I think bush is slowly building back his support.

Posted: 10/17/2004 6:37:44 PM EDT

[#18]

Quoted:
Also he shows a massive drop off at the end of september. The end of september was when Bush had his first debate. After that debate I called a good friend totally mortified and told him Bush just lost the election. I'm thinking I overreacted. I think bush is slowly building back his support.

the President never lost his support, the media just soiled themselves hyping kerry up b/c he did good in the debates. anytime a candidate gets 24/7 good press from the big 3 and CNN, it's going to give him an artificial bump in the polls.

Posted: 10/17/2004 6:42:12 PM EDT

[#19]

Quoted:
Also he shows a massive drop off at the end of september. The end of september was when Bush had his first debate. After that debate I called a good friend totally mortified and told him Bush just lost the election. I'm thinking I overreacted. I think bush is slowly building back his support.

You just proved my point. The OTHER thing that happened at the end of September was that the pollsters all abruptly changed their sampling mechanism. Actually a couple of the biggies did first, then the "rest" went with the flow. The sampling change (a major reduction in the weighting of republicans) created an upward spike for Kerry.

Bottom line, polls suck. Electoral-college.com is a fuckwad manipulation effort, and we need to get out the vote and just go with it.

Posted: 10/17/2004 7:09:19 PM EDT

[#20]

Bottom line, polls suck. Electoral-college.com is a fuckwad manipulation effort, and we need to get out the vote and just go with it.

I agree. It's going to be harder and harder over the next few days for EC.com to cherry pick his polls. I can't wait to watch the meltdown later in the week at DU.

[ARCHIVED THREAD] - October 17 Electoral Map (Page 2 of 2)

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