I'm guessIng not.

I'm curious to see that you believe that NK just doesn't have a card that they could play. Seems to me they have plenty of options that would ruin a lot of people's day in a hurry even if it would be a sucidal endeavor. I would think that has to be the case or i think there would have been a intervention before this (of which I know we came pretty close to one with Slick Willie in the White House back in the '90s and they didn't even have nukes back then and we had just kick the shit out of Saddams army)

I have to think that your assement of Un as simply a puppet isn't accurate. While I think there is an effort within the North Korean leadership to preserve the Confucius like symbolism of their culture, everything I have ever seen, read about or researched sugggets that any one of the Kim's were relatively omnipotent. Having said that, I was never military and wasn't given the same information that you folks have. I'm not an expert but I do pay attention ( to what's available)




Here's a scenario of which I don't see the down side for Un-

they take a pot shot at one of our planes. Whether the pilot is not down of escapes the incoming missile I think is largely irrelevant but let's play that out. We would be obligated to retaliate at the very least by removing the SAM site, correct?  Very minimum. But what have we just done in that action? Given The not so little Kim a legit excuse to go loud. He would now have the means to instead of holding a gun to the South Koreans head but threaten our bases and west coast. i would say he would outright say that any other transgressions would be the leveling of Seoul for example or maybe a nuclear detonation by a suicide sub in proximity of a navy Carrier of any of the countries minus China which in the region. All while continually building his nuclear arsenal.

And of course let's not forget China. All I know is what they say and what they do as a nation is at the very last suspect in my opinion. Really, truly I highly suspect they are give this little guy the okay to fuck around privately. Frankly who knows what they would do when the rubber it's the road....

Given the political climate right now I wonder if there would be enough political will to Do What Needs To Be Done about the Kim's. Backlash on this side would be riotous borderline mutiny by the left. I can't think for one second they would side with Trump as opposed to some communist dick suck. Militarily I think we would be isolated, not that I think a US military led by Mattis wouldn't be able overwhelm the defenses of the NKs given the green light but I wonder if the people in charge i.e. Congress, the senate have the balls and sense to allow for an exchange of that magnitude or the domestic implications for their political careers



I know this for a certainty, the NKs are a nation of brainwashed zombies living in a state of permanent fear and lead by ruthless, disgusting leadership class that will literally do anything in order to stay in charge. And people that desperate are pretty fearless and fairly innovative, at least when comes to a perceived outside threat

McMaster Says North Korea Must Accept Inspections Before Talks https://t.co/YE2afBry7l via @bpolitics

Steve Thomma  (@stevethomma) September 25, 2017

Taking out SAM sites was one of the few things left for us to do after Gulf War I.  USMC (retired) Colonel Burke did it when he was an F/A-18C driver.  He later went to Top Gun and became a Top Gun instructor, tasked with writing the Air-to-ground mission training manual of his day at the school, collaborating with many other pilots with that experience.

He later volunteered to be an ANGLICO Team Leader and deployed to Iraq, namely Ramadi, when it was intense.

He then went on to be part of the F-35B transition program for the USMC.

We just staked out a negotiation position.

My buddy "Trigger" splashed a flogger that approached tne northern no fly.  Op provide comfort

Why does anyone think we are going to strike a SAM site when we didn't do anything when they sank a SK naval vessel? Nobody on either side actually wants a hot war on that peninsula. The South Koreans and Chinese are terrified of the welfare state NK would become, the US can't afford it and really doesn't have the military for it, and Russia does not want that much US influence at their back door. China too for that matter. The only people that would benefit would be Japan, and that is only if they didn't catch a missile to the face.

You'd deliver via a Low Altitude Drogue Delivery (LADD) toss maneuver which would have you climbing at a 45 degree angle in a 4-g pull at 540 knots when the bomb released. Then immediately you would hit afterburner and turn your tail to the target with a nose down attitude, ready to "surf" the shockwave and having as much jet fuel between you and the blast to absorb the neutrons.

You'd have about 30 seconds between bomb release and detonation to get yourself into position running away.  Meanwhile the bomb would be travel up to five miles in the direction it was tossed, so you could have as much as 8 to 10 miles between you and the detonation.  Then you would increase the distance while the shockwave catches up to you.

I spent close to 16 years seeing crews do that in F-4E simulators and doing it myself as well.  330kt might scorch the paint on the ass end of the jet, but the Phantom was very capable of delivering such a weapon (likely a B-28 bomb).

I suspect the MIG could detect it at close range, but if the Norks follow Soviet tactical doctrine they'll likely rely much more on GCI than onboard radars.

Those options of their's are only valid in a total war scenario. In the 1990s, minus nukes, the NK regime would likely have survived such a war. In 2017, they're all dead meat. They are #1 target, beyond strategic weapons. If they do shit, they die. Let me repeat that, If North Korea does shit, their leader and the ministers are all dead men, their families will be destitute, their possessions will be gone, any few that survive are fucked. That alone is a very great reason not to fight, when doing so means suicide. Kim aint suicidal, neither are the OGD, neither are the rest of the ministers running NK.

If you pay attention to the Kim family a few things stand out:

Kim Il Sung created North Korea. He was a commie stooge who early aligned with the Soviets and with their support fought the Japanese. Later, post war, their support allowed him to take charge of North Korea and to create it into the state we all know and love today. He ruled from 1945 to 1994.
Kim Jung Il was his father's right hand man for 34 years before dad died and he took over. That's a very long time to be #2 man, and he was balls deep in everything and basically running things in the later years when Kim Il Sung was dying. He then ruled for 17 years. The later years of his reign were particularly challenging as China attempted to force their way into the North Korean regime as "patrons", thereby making NK a puppet regime.
See a pattern? Its called experience, which drives ability, cements power, networking capability. Neither of them were neophytes.
Kim Jung Un was 26 years old when he took over. He had under two years of preparation, most of the time his father was still running things through his death bed. Kim Jung Un had zero preparation to become president of the DPRK. He was not even first choice, his eldest brother was until he pissed off Dad and the OGD (created by dad). Kim had no background to prepare and yet he stepped in and immediately started acting like a Kim. Because he was a genius? Fuck no, because the OGD's exact role in their govt was to ensure a Kim was in charge.

This is like saying "I have a pistol, my enemy has a pistol, neither of us are going to pull our guns because if we do one, if not both of us are going to die. So instead I'll pull my piece and wing him in the shoulder." Its suicide. If North Korea does anything they start the war, we finish the war. See? Can they cause pain and suffering? Yes. Will they all die crushed by rubble or on fire? Yes. See? Not good choices. If Kim acts even the slightest bit in a truely aggressive manner it can escalate into the conflict that neither he nor the rest of his puppeteers want.

They want: Power, respect, pussy, money, booze, video collections, love of the people.
Things they don't want: To die

Trump knows. Yep, as much as his haters wont acknowledge it, the deal has been done. All that tariff talk pre and post election, guess what that was? That was Trump setting the Chinese up for eventually allying with the US against NK. The deal is done, since August China has utterly betrayed NK in nearly every meaningful way. They've cut off trade, they cut off most oil imports, they are cutting off banking, and most of all they voted FOR the UN sanctions, which is as open as it can get when it comes to turning their back on NK. They could have vetoed it, they could even have abstained from voting, they did neither. Because Trump made a deal with Xi in Key Largo.

War isn't happening. Right now you have two dudes out front of a bar shit talking about kicking each other's asses. Problem is that both are carrying pistols and both know it. If someone pulls, someone is dying and it most likely isn't the US. We don't want war, they don't want war. Neither side can say that openly, because now is not the time for calm reactions, now is the time for shit talking. Which is what we're seeing now. Kim's only choices are meaningless threats, most of which he can't perform, lots of saber rattling rhetoric. The best reaction to that isn't to be the bigger man and ignore it, nor is it to respond as if the threats are serious, which we know for a fact they aren't. If Kelly, Mattis, McMaster, and Dunford thought he was serious about carrying out the threat then Trump would have already cooked something up as justification to attack. But they haven't, because this is just shit talking, which is why Trump is doing the right thing by constantly calling the fat puppet fucker on his bluffs.

I've used poker analogies in the past, NK has something but not a strong hand. The US has the stronger hand but isn't willing to go all in just yet, its still too risky. But we know Kim doesn't have a royal flush, which is how he's trying to play it. And Kim does know that we do have a very strong hand, though not an impossible hand.

You're describing the peasants, the industrial workers, the soldiers. Ie., the nobodies. They don't matter, they're unfortunately fodder to all sides, pawns. What matters is the leadership class. They have a rising standard of living, cars, large houses, servants, mistresses, Macao gambling trips, DVD collections, porn collections, their kids teeth are straight, everyone is well fed, and their idiot nephew is guaranteed a great job that they will ensure happens. That is what they have, that is why they want power, and everything they do is based on that end state.

War is only the answer when they have no recourse. They have one, abandon nukes. They do that, the sanctions and embargoes end, the threats end, everything de-escalates. But if they do that, Kim Jung Un's faction playing puppeteer, the OGD, they are all fucked because that is their mission. So they will have to go, other ministers will end up turning on them, Kim will remain in power and a middling faction will take over as puppeteer after they liquidate the OGD.

Or else war. And if that happens, they all die. Every last one of them will die, especially if they try to go heavy handed. They aren't the Soviet Union nor China, both of whom have some sort of parity on the US in manpower or whatever. North Korea has ZERO chance of even hurting us badly, at worst they will cause some devastation that we'll forget about like we did 9/11. Meanwhile, Kim dies, the ministers die, their family's starve, and somebody else runs North Korea who isn't named Kim.

Turks in an F-16C shot down a Russian Su-24M Fencer in 2015.

The Su-24's best chance against an F-16C is to sweep the wings back and go full throttle to try to get out of his WEZ in advance, and to never get anywhere near WVR of the F-16C or the F-16C's BVR AMRAAM engagement envelope.  Su-24M is late 1970s tech.  It was a 1960s program with a similar mission profile to what the US F-111A had.  Looks like a rough copy of the F-111, only a bit smaller, nowhere near as aerodynamic, but was their first strike aircraft with more advanced navigation and targeting, which is why it's still in service.  They put US-made civilian GPS receivers in the cockpit in wooden mounts though.

No one wants a war but who was president then?
None of our allies wanted a war when he was there because they knew they could not trust him to be there if they needed us.

Did we do the propaganda video of them shooting dowd a B1b f35 and nuking a carrier.

Why is it US air doctrine to fly B1 lancers straight in to some what looks like a nork ballistic missles  

Trump knows. Yep, as much as his haters wont acknowledge it, the deal has been done. All that tariff talk pre and post election, guess what that was? That was Trump setting the Chinese up for eventually allying with the US against NK. The deal is done, since August China has utterly betrayed NK in nearly every meaningful way. They've cut off trade, they cut off most oil imports, they are cutting off banking, and most of all they voted FOR the UN sanctions, which is as open as it can get when it comes to turning their back on NK. They could have vetoed it, they could even have abstained from voting, they did neither. Because Trump made a deal with Xi in Key Largo.

@steinhab

What are you suggesting in this paragraph?

That FOing is a real option?

Frankly I think we painted ourselves in a corner ( the North Koreans more than us) with our doctrine of the Rules of Engagement , but in another paragraph you say it wouldn't likely happen.

I know our guys are in a tough spot.

Kind of like the pope having the same authority as God when it comes to religious doctrine. One is failble but the Word of a God is infallible, yet their word is equal.
A paradox

Not really a religious guy so forgive the ham handed analogy but I thought it had roots

I'd think using the best available equipment would be ideal.

Bring it fat boy!

Oh Noez!!!  If there is anything that I am really afraid of, it is the North Korean air force and air defenses.

Hahaha your avatar!

We're not acting to overthrow NK and replace his regime, that day is long past. Trump is exercising one last hoorah to try to stop North Korea from being a legitimate nuclear power. So first things first, that's the mission, everything we do or don't do evolves around the necessity of preventing North Korea from possessing nuclear weapons, as a regime they are simply too aggressive to possess them. So that leaves us with two options to stop it from happening. Diplomatic and military.

Military is out. North Korea isn't the strongest military by far but it does possess a couple strategic weapons that will make attacking them a bit too painful, political suicide if done without provocation. Limited nuclear missiles tech, WMDs in the form of bio and chem weapons, the artillery/rocket threat on Seoul, etc. If we attack them, they attack everyone they can, lots of people die, we win in the end, Kim dies, as well as tens, if not hundreds of thousands of ROK, Japanese, and possibly American citizens.

That leaves diplomacy. Clinton tried that back in the 90s, he "almost" decided on a military option to stop the North Koreans from starting their nuclear weapons program but decided against it, focusing on the bullshit deal that Carter made with Kim Il Sung instead, which did nothing but guarantee that they'd get to build bombs unmolested (which essentially was duplicated in the "deal" Obama made with Iran).

However, there is still a very effective diplomatic tool left but the US doesn't really control it, China does. That is that North Korea, as isolated as they are, as self sufficient as they are, still relied on the "limited" export GDP to China, but more so they relied on Chinese importation of nearly 100% of North Korean oil. But China has never played ball with the US with NK, they like us expending political capital getting nowhere with NK, it helps their position, because if we can't muster the energy to deal with NK then we certainly aren't going to deal with China. China isn't NK's puppeteer, the execution of the DRPK Defense Minister Jang a couple years proved that. But they definitely have an alliance of a sort with them. It took a lot to break that alliance, but its clearly been broken. China has in fact turned on North Korea, they are cutting off most oil flow, they stopped buying NK products, and they are halting banking with NK. They are not doing this because their heart grew three times like the Grinch. They are doing this because Trump blackmailed them to do it. Through the threat of tariffs.

China is not nearly as strong as they think they are. Their economy is like ours, highly manipulated and always teetering on the brink of total collapse. While the US could get away with a depression and survive intact without revolution, if that happens to China they are fucking done, stick a fork in them, the Politburo will all be dead men, either killed in another revolution, or ousted by others within the Chinese Communist Party who will blame them for everything. The biggest weakness China has is that as much as they fuck with the US, they are still utterly reliant on us for trade. And the President of the USA does have the ability to enact EO trade tariffs.

Pre and post election, before the North Korean shit started, Trump made a big deal out of the disparaging trade agreements between the US and China. They fuck us with tariffs so badly its nearly impossible to import anything (and then they steal all our shit anyway, because the commie fucks wont recognize patent rights). And what does the US get out of it? Nothing, we get fucked, we lose manufacturing capabilities, people lose jobs, the only people making money are the fat cats using Chinese labor and selling cheap Chinese crap. All those comments were misinterpreted as Trump saying that he was going to legitimately place tariffs on China out of spite, or to fix shit. That's not reality. He was setting the stage for North Korea. He was aligning up the pressure early on that he was planning to exert to fix the North Korean nuke problem.

None of this is accident. Trump didn't just get a hair up his ass to fuck with North Korea because he was bored. He has strong foreign policy positions he wanted to maintain. Right now he's knocking out two birds with one stone, he's putting China in its place and making them earn their trade disparity, and he's fixing the North Korean situation, which should have been fixed by Obama, who had nothing in the way stopping him besides his own vagina. Everyone jokes about 4D chess, but Trump has been setting up North Korea by pitting China against them and nobody has even been able to figure it out until now.

The thing is Trump doesn't have the political, diplomatic, and historical background to know how to fuck North Korea over using China as the weapon instead of using a US led military attack. But Mattis, that motherfucker reads books. Mattis is always willing to offer the olive branch first and use negotiations, because he knows the truth of warfare. Once in, you're in. Mattis was one of the very first non-campaign managers that Trump approached, and then afterwards Trump hired a bunch of people purely on his recommendations. He basically runs the foreign affairs of the US govt now along with his former Iraqi 1st Marine Division chain of command, with Kelly and Dunforrd (former ADC and regimental commander subordinates), with McMaster who Mattis worked with often in the Pentagon and elsewhere, both known for being rather scholarly but highly militant individuals. Mattis sold Trump on relatively inexpensive course of action. We don't need to expend much money, no troops die, no civilians die. We just increase pressure, remain firm, force China to keep playing ball and in the end what option does North Korea have left? They can capitulate or they can go to war. If they capitulate, they abandon nukes, then they go home to fuck their mistresses, eat their kimchi, and live their good lives. If they choose war, they all die (that has been made utterly clear, we're going to decapitate their govt).

But the North Koreans don't want to except this ultimatum, which is why they are replying back with the only weapon they have left. Saber rattling shit talking. But that's all it is, they dont' want war, if they really did they'd have launched it already. They'd have done it decades ago. But they don't want war, they want peace, safety, stability. They want to keep being the dicks but without worrying about future regime change. They want to avoid going the route of Saddam and Gaddafi. But the route they choose only leads to them going the route of Saddam and Gaddafi, eventually they are going to have to realize that.

Or else we go to war. That will always be a possibility. And if that happens, we'll get hurt a bit, but North Korea will be gone. Trump will lose politically, but the US will survive for the short term (until the inevitable civil war destroys us).

One thing I've noticed though is that when China turns down the oil spigot, Russia turns it up so that North Korea is kept fed with adequate oil supply.

Russia and China entered into a military agreement after the collapse, and have only strengthened that relationship over the years.

They both watched how the US ran over the Iraqi Air Force and Army in a matter of days in one of the most lop-sided military campaigns in the entire history of warfare, and realized immediately that their technology and forces were basically targets for the US.

Every other major regime realized this as well, which is why they went asymmetric on us immediately afterward Desert Storm.

Combined with sonic energy weapons used against US diplomatic staff in Cuba, and now Iran launching ballistic missile tests, there appears to be a concerted new Axis Powers effort at destabilizing the US's global position.

Is the North Korean missile launch program part of a larger campaign, or is it organic to North Korea, without influence from Russia and China?

That IADS they showed in the propaganda video is Russian.

Or out of it.

Your outline has been my bet all along. Couple that with the antifa bullshit here and quite a few odd happenings afoot

Double tap

That deal with Cuba is one we should definitely retaliate for

Yup.

A Mig 29 is pretty much a baby seal when F15-C comes hunting.

JSF and Raptor play on a whole nother level.

Plus Iran and Venezuela are in on the show

They said the same shit about Iraq in 1990.
We know how that turned out...

Still glad you're back. I wish I could type better.

But if we meet in a bar at some point we are going to have one wicked conversation.
Drinks on me

Nailed it.

Yup.

And Trump is the type to let the Mad Dog loose to handle things his way.

It's like a nail mocking a man with a hammer that swings itself.

They were abso-da-da-damn-lutely beautiful NOV79.

Even gave us KODAK Runs.

Cmon man I'm trying here.....

My guess is the NK put up a more ferocious air battle, instead of defecting they would try and ram you. And NK can, in theory, put up hundreds of 1950s fighters which would make targeting and fighter sorts difficult at best. Much less how many AIM-120 in theatre?

The US would undoubtedly have total air superiority from Day 1. The question is how would the Norks employ their air forces. I know how I would do it if I were them.....

They MIGHT be able to intercept a B-52 if the entire command crew is asleep at the stick, maybe.

I believe it was a SU-24

As long as it doesn't have a good pilot and go WVR then tables get turned somewhat. WVR a Fulcrum with a HMS and AA-11 is a bitch if the right guy is in the seat, which thankfully is rare. Plus getting WVR with F-15s is easier said than done.

They can make an immediate mass dash to deliver the most nuke/chem/bio before they are all shot down, or they can try to hide them in shelters to do this later when desperate. Anything else results in their being shredded piecemeal, a waste for NK.

Until then, cheers!

probably not, more like "see bitches I told you we would kick your ass!"

haven't we been feeding them anyway? in exchange for them not pursuing nuclear weapons? 

hey if "to buku" works so be it

I know they have alot of these.

Attached File

Or maybe he's suggesting that we used China to stab NK in the neck while we keep their hearts pumping hard so they bleed out faster.

Elaborate, please.

Same odds as a Navy ship running into another ship?

Inspections regime.

@steinhab
@switchtanks

If it is geographically feasible I would spot the first three just to listen in [beers]

So Rocket Man just went ballistic in the idiot rocket then?

You know how I know Kim reads ARFCOM?

BREAKING: North Korea moving airplanes, boosting defense after US bomber flight - Yonhap

Breaking911  (@Breaking911) September 26, 2017

North Korea bolsters defenses after flight by U.S. bombers, rhetoric escalates https://t.co/gGGFrAx9O7

Reuters Top News  (@Reuters) September 26, 2017