Moderate/Strong La Nina winter prediction - Page 2

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Posted: 9/5/2010 8:05:07 PM EDT

[#1]

Quoted:
Last year was a bitch. It wasn't all that cold and the amount of snow we got wasn't bad... it was just that winter lasted 6 fucking months.

Another one of those and they can take me to a nice rubber lined room.

We had the opposite. Ice-out on the Lake Winnepesauke was March 24th, the earliest since they've been recording ice-outs (1888). We had very little snow so hopefully the deer season this fall will be pretty good.

Posted: 9/5/2010 11:27:44 PM EDT

[#2]

Quoted:
I wouldn't worry about that prediction. Farmers Almanac says different and they are usually right.http://www.farmersalmanac.com/weather/2010/08/29/2011-winter-outlook-the-wait-is-over/

The Farmers Almanac is a joke and is usually wrong - actually it's complete bullshit, they even refuse to say how they make their "predictions". They have to print their publication before any scientific data regarding the potential weather pattern even exists. The ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) for the most part, dictates the weather in the northern hemispheres winter. In a strong El Nino the east coast gets more snow, the south and southwest get wet weather (the southwest gets great precipitation, even flooding in a strong El Nino) and the northwest gets mild temps and rain (per usual). then there's the middle ground; no real El Nino, no La Nina - average winter. In a La Nina the northwest gets hammered, the south is warmer and dry and the east is a little warmer and the southwest is the opposite of El Nino - VERY DRY. There are other factors obviously, but if there's a strong La Nina or El Nino the weather has a distinct pattern. The Almanac is predicting an El Nino type winter. Well, they're full of shit per usual. We're well on the way to a strong/moderate La Nina. Facts is facts, look at that big assed band of cold water south of Baja extending nearly to Australia - Thats a La Nina. Put down the "Fools Almanac" and Google ENSO, or La Nina 2010-2011...

Posted: 9/5/2010 11:34:56 PM EDT

[#3]

i hate the north east...

Posted: 9/5/2010 11:38:16 PM EDT

[#4]

Quoted:

I have noticed that its been unusually cold at night and far earlier than usual for this time of year in my area(western wa)

That's because of the Global Warming.

Posted: 9/5/2010 11:41:56 PM EDT

[#5]

That sucks

Posted: 9/5/2010 11:43:57 PM EDT

[#6]

My guys plowed the whole City on 31 different days from Halloween to March, 2007-08.
We plowed damned near every day from Thanksgiving until the first week of January, 2008-09. Then it stopped.
2009-10, we plowed once. Once. In December. We didn't get enough snow under 3500' to stay over 48 hours. Broke records for winter rainfall.

An old Panhandle homily: the difference between a damned fool and a weather forecaster? Forecaster gets paid for it.

Posted: 9/5/2010 11:48:33 PM EDT

[#7]

Quoted:
My guys plowed the whole City on 31 different days from Halloween to March, 2007-08.
We plowed damned near every day from Thanksgiving until the first week of January, 2008-09. Then it stopped.
2009-10, we plowed once. Once. In December. We didn't get enough snow under 3500' to stay over 48 hours. Broke records for winter rainfall.

An old Panhandle homily: the difference between a damned fool and a weather forecaster? Forecaster gets paid for it.

2007-2008 was a La Nina year - Northwest and midwest get pretty cold temps and a lot of precipitation which = a shit ton of snow....Day to day weatherguessing is relatively subjective- microclimates are a bitch and it's all a hypothesis, but a larger global event that you can see developing like the ENSO is a good gauge as to what regions will experience whate types of weather.

Posted: 9/6/2010 12:23:48 AM EDT

[#8]

Quoted:
Good. I'm tired of these wet Christmas mornings.

Bring me a blizzard, damnit!

+1

I totally agree...Before I moved here––I heard WA got tons of snow..I get here––fucking nothing.. A bitch ass rainy Christmas and Christmas Eve...I sawy bring it on––I wanna sled in my driveway!!

I knew there was a reason I like you Evil..

Posted: 9/6/2010 12:39:21 AM EDT

[#9]

Quoted:

Good. I'm tired of these wet Christmas mornings.

Bring me a blizzard, damnit!

FUCK THAT!

Brown Christmas, FTW...

If I never, ever see a single flake of snow on my property, for the rest of my life, that will be PERFECT!

(I grew up in WI, and besides... People don't know how to drive in the snow here - they can barely handle the rain!)

Posted: 9/6/2010 12:41:12 AM EDT

[#10]

Quoted:

Quoted:
Good. I'm tired of these wet Christmas mornings.

Bring me a blizzard, damnit!

FUCK THAT!

Brown Christmas, FTW...

If I never, ever see a single flake of snow on my property, for the rest of my life, that will be PERFECT!

(I grew up in WI, and besides... People don't know how to drive in the snow here - they can barely handle the rain!)

Dave––Dammit...Don't you ruin this for me..I have wanted snow forever..

Posted: 9/6/2010 12:45:19 AM EDT

[#11]

Quoted:

Quoted:
Good. I'm tired of these wet Christmas mornings.

Bring me a blizzard, damnit!

FUCK THAT!

Brown Christmas, FTW...

If I never, ever see a single flake of snow on my property, for the rest of my life, that will be PERFECT!

(I grew up in WI, and besides... People don't know how to drive in the snow here - they can barely handle the rain!)

While I understand your frustrations with snow - are you on a private well, or a water district system? And if a district, is it sourced via surface or ground water? Snowload, rainfall and runoff all have substantial impacts upon not just quantity, but also quality.

Posted: 9/6/2010 12:47:09 AM EDT

[#12]

Quoted:

Quoted:

i'm predicting 72 degrees and sunny for the entire winter in PA

Good luck with that, dude.

you tryin' to crush my fantasy?

Posted: 9/6/2010 12:48:57 AM EDT

[#13]

Quoted:

Quoted:

i'm predicting 72 degrees and sunny for the entire winter in PA

Good luck with that, dude.

you tryin' to crush my fantasies?

Dave is trying to crush mine..

Posted: 9/6/2010 3:28:29 AM EDT

[#14]

My wife won't like this news. We had 24" on Christmas Day and I had weekend duty.

At least this year I'm prepared with a 24" snowblower. As long as we don't suffer any power outages we'll be fine.

Posted: 9/6/2010 3:38:14 AM EDT

[#15]

Quoted:

What's their track record with such predictions?

Who is they anyway?

Posted: 9/6/2010 3:59:12 AM EDT

[#16]

Quoted:
Last year was a bitch. It wasn't all that cold and the amount of snow we got wasn't bad... it was just that winter lasted 6 fucking months.

Another one of those and they can take me to a nice rubber lined room.

Last year was a mild winter. I am still waiting for the week long 40 below

.

Posted: 9/6/2010 4:08:53 AM EDT

[#17]

Hottest summer ever recorded here this year , last year was the wettest year in recorded history.........wonder what's next !?!?

Posted: 9/6/2010 5:05:56 AM EDT

[#18]

Quoted:
Last year was a bitch. It wasn't all that cold and the amount of snow we got wasn't bad... it was just that winter lasted 6 fucking months.

Another one of those and they can take me to a nice rubber lined room.

I don't remember it being that bad. We had a good 16" around Christmas that stayed the rest of the year, but my lake was ice free before April. That's a good 2 weeks earlier than normal.

Posted: 9/6/2010 5:19:05 AM EDT

[#19]

Farmer's Almanac is saying the same thing for the NE: a cold, less-snowy winter. I was just thinking of looking for some sort of confirmation.

Posted: 9/6/2010 5:20:02 AM EDT

[#20]

I am El Niiiiinnnoooo which is Spanish for The Niiiiinnnoooo.

Posted: 9/6/2010 5:22:32 AM EDT

[#21]

Quoted:

Quoted:
We've had some mornings in the 40s lately. Though it got up to 90 or so today, the next few days are only supposed to hit the low 70s. We've had some bushes and trees showing some color already. This is Colorado at 6K ft elevation. I've heard that aspen in the high country are turning as well.

I'm starting to see some change of color here in MT (3,000 feet) but only in a few trees. A few leaves on the ground. Temps have been all over the chart. 80's the past couple of days to 50's and rain today. Low 60's and rain in the forecast for the next week. We've had a couple of winter storm watches/warnings for above 6,500 in the past few weeks.

Last year it was like someone threw a switch. Went from normal fall to all the leaves dropping off the trees within a week or so the first week of October.

I'm also keeping an eye on the 2 street cats that hang around my place. So far no real change in fur growth on either of them and I've still got flowers on some of the plants in the yard.

Same thing here in Maine. I live at sea level, and the maples started turning two weeks ago. Even along the coast, we've started seeing some nighttime temps in the 50s.

Posted: 9/6/2010 5:24:30 AM EDT

[#22]

Quoted:

What's their track record with such predictions?

It's pretty solid.

Posted: 9/6/2010 5:32:01 AM EDT

[#23]

Quoted:

Quoted:

i'm predicting 72 degrees and sunny for the entire winter in PA

Good luck with that, dude.

you tryin' to crush my fantasies?

Dave is trying to crush mine..

I admit it. My fantasies involve 3 feet of snow on the ground, and 20 degrees and sunny.

Although now that I've said something, there'll be a crazy warm up in mid January and it'll be 72 degrees and sunny. There. You have your fantasies back. Happy?

Posted: 9/6/2010 5:33:45 AM EDT

[#24]

Last year ever major snowfall for eastern Hudson River valley was followed immediately by rainfall... hardly got anything over 8" that stayed. I think this year we will have earlier and more snow.

edit: last night was 47º felt just like fall, that and majority of leaves are down... noticed lots of colors changing while taking a ride through Vermont too.

Posted: 9/6/2010 5:47:27 AM EDT

[#25]

Here's somme winter forecasts from last winter . A few notes. First, the verifications are january-march. Some of the forecasts are december-february, or they are for generic "winter". Deal with it.

One difficulty in intercomparing forecasts is that they have different terms. E.G. NWS forecasts are percent chance that it will be colder/drier/warmer/wetter than usual, whereas the others might just say "cold and snowy". A forecast of "cold". . . well that's going to be true in most places in the northern half of the country, most of the time. Additionally, cold isn't a temperature, it's a "feeling". It's also very dependent on where you are from. Thus the problem with both the farmer's almanac and accuweather forecasts that i've shown is that they use generalities that have different interpretations for different people. So don't take any of these to the bank.

Farmer's Almanac:

NWS:

AccuWeather:

Results:

Posted: 9/6/2010 6:16:39 AM EDT

[#26]

Posted: 9/6/2010 3:09:41 PM EDT

[#27]

The wife wants snow.

I have a 4WD and a buddy on my shift who lives down the street has his F350 plow truck in his driveway.

I may need to catch him on a plow run @ O-dark-thirty but we'll get to the FD.

Posted: 9/6/2010 5:40:19 PM EDT

[#28]

Oh, I forgot to mention that I was reading that a La Nina brings an increased chance of hurricanes due to reduced upper level wind shear. One prediction was nearly 20 named storms for the upcoming La Nina hurricane season. Again, who knows...

Posted: 9/7/2010 11:28:09 AM EDT

[#29]

Quoted:

The leaves are already starting to change here at lower elevations and its a few weeks too early for that. Its going to be a rough winter.

I'm in the foothills of the Cascades. The leaves began to turn yellow here about three weeks ago. I sure hope that means some serious snow is coming!

Posted: 9/7/2010 11:39:15 AM EDT

[#30]

Quoted:

Quoted:
I have noticed that its been unusually cold at night and far earlier than usual for this time of year in my area(western wa)

Yep'. I am in the foothills on the pierce/lewis border and it has been cold as hell at night.

It's been pretty cold at night over here in the Cascade foothills (Issaquah). I walk my dog at 2:30 every morning, and have noticed it's gotten cold earlier than usual.

Posted: 9/7/2010 11:41:56 AM EDT

[#31]

Quoted:

Quoted:
Good. I'm tired of these wet Christmas mornings.

Bring me a blizzard, damnit!

FUCK THAT!

Brown Christmas, FTW...

If I never, ever see a single flake of snow on my property, for the rest of my life, that will be PERFECT!

(I grew up in WI, and besides... People don't know how to drive in the snow here - they can barely handle the rain!)

Quoted for truth.

Posted: 9/7/2010 12:02:18 PM EDT

[#32]

Jan 3, 2009

What it looks like without the snow

Posted: 9/7/2010 12:07:24 PM EDT

[#33]

Quoted:
Seemed like the acorns fell awfully early this year (last week).

Coincidence?

Same in NY.

And the ferns are retreating into the ground early.

And a lot of birds gathering early.

Posted: 9/7/2010 12:21:24 PM EDT

[#34]

I'm praying for another winter like last year here in SE PA

Posted: 9/7/2010 12:27:44 PM EDT

[#35]

Snow I can live with.

The ice storms are what I dread. I just hope we have a winter without a significant ice event.

Posted: 9/7/2010 12:29:41 PM EDT

[#36]

Quoted:

We had 13 fucking inches of snow in Dallas last year. Fuck that, I don't put up with 100 degree summers to deal with 13 fucking inches of snow. Damned global warming.

13 inches of snow?

Total or at once?

Posted: 9/7/2010 12:31:35 PM EDT

[#37]

I sure hope so. Last winter was testicicles-cold. We had a whole week where it dropped below freezing.

Posted: 9/7/2010 12:33:09 PM EDT

[#38]

I ain't afraid. I ran a new line from my well to the house in -20 below once because it froze in the pit (no more pit now). I'd rather deal with cold than snakes and spiders and shit.