In February 2021, a winter storm that swept through Texas caused one of the most severe power crises in American history. The cold weather created shockingly high electricity demands as people tried to keep their homes warm. But it also caused problems with the power supply because power plants themselves and their supporting infrastructure weren't adequately protected against freezing weather. The result was that Texas couldn't generate enough power to meet demand. Instead they would have to disconnect customers to reduce demands down to  manageable levels. But before grid operators could shed enough load from the system, the frequency of the alternating current dropped as the remaining generators were bogged down, falling below 59.4 hertz for over 4 minutes.

It might not seem like much, but that is a critical threshold in grid operations. It's 1% below nominal. Power plants have relays that keep track of grid frequency and disconnect equipment if anything goes awry to prevent serious damage. If the grid frequency drops below 59.4 hertz, the clock starts ticking. And if it doesn't return to the nominal frequency within 9 minutes, the relays trip! That means the Texas grid came within a bathroom break from total collapse. If a few more large power plants tripped offline or too few customers were shed from the system in time, it's likely that the frequency would have continued to drop until every single generator on the grid was disconnected.

Thankfully, that nightmare scenario was avoided. Still, despite operators preventing a total collapse, the 2021 power crisis was one of the most expensive and deadly disasters in Texas history. If those four minutes had gone differently, it's almost impossible to imagine how serious the consequences would be. Let's put ourselves in the theoretical boots of someone waking up after that frigid February night in Texas, assuming the grid did collapse, and find out. I'm Grady, and this is Practical Engineering. In today's episode, we're talking about the impacts of blackouts on other infrastructure.

Every so often some loud noise wakes you from your sleep: a truck backfiring on the street outside, a baby crying, a cat knocking something off a shelf. But it's a very different thing altogether to be awoken by silence, your unconscious mind telling you that the sounds you should be hearing are gone. It only takes a groggy minute to piece it together. The refrigerator is silent, no air is flowing through the heating register, the ceiling fan above your head is slowly coming to a stop. The power is out. You check your phone. It's 4AM. Nothing you can really do but go back to sleep and hope they get it fixed by daylight.

Most of us have experienced a power outage at some point, but they're usually short (lasting on the order of minutes or hours) and they're mostly local (affecting a small area at a time). A wide area interconnection - that's the technical term for a power grid - is designed that way on purpose. It has redundancies, multiple paths that power can take to get to the same destination, and power users and producers are spread out, reducing the chance that they could be impacted all at once. But having everyone interconnected is a vulnerability too, because if things go very wrong, everyone is affected. We're in the midst of a deep dive series on wide scale outages to the power grid, and a mismatch between supply and demand (like what happened in Texas) is only one of the many reasons that could cause a major blackout. Natural disasters, engineering errors, and deliberate attacks can all completely collapse a grid, and - at least for the first few hours of an outage - you might not even know that what you're experiencing is any more serious than a wayward tree branch tripping the fuse on the transformer outside your house.

You wake up 3 hours later, cold, sunlight peeking in through your bedroom window. The power is still off. You grab your cell phone to try and figure out what's going on. It has a full battery from charging overnight, and you have a strong signal too. You try to call a friend, but the call won't go through. You try a few more times, but still, nothing more than a friendly voice saying "All Circuits Are Busy."

There is a vast array of pathways that information flows between people across the globe, and they all use grid power to function. Fiber networks use switches and optical terminals distributed throughout the service area. Cable TV and DSL networks have nodes that service around 500 to 1000 customers each that require power. Cellular networks use base stations mounted on towers or rooftops. Major telecommunications facilities are usually on prioritized grid circuits and may even have redundant power feeds from multiple substations, but even during a blackout where the entire grid is completely disabled, you might still have service. That's because most telecommunication facilities are equipped with backup batteries that can keep them running during a power outage for 4 to 8 hours. Critical facilities like cellular base stations and data-centers often have an on-site backup generator. These generators have enough fuel to extend the resiliency beyond 24 to 48 hours. That said, major emergencies create huge demands on telecommunication services as everyone is trying to find and share information at once, so you might not be able to get through even if the services are still available. In the US, the federal government works with telecommunications providers to create priority channels so that 911 calls, emergency management communications, and other matters related to public safety can get through even when the networks are congested.

Since you're trying to make a personal call and you aren't enrolled in the Telecommunications Service Priority program, you're not getting through. Just then, an emergency alert appears on your screen. It says that there's a power grid failure and to prepare for an extended outage. The reality of the situation is just starting to set in. Since most people have a cell phone, wireless emergency alerts have become an important addition to the Emergency Alert System that connects various levels of government to tv, radio, satellite, and telephone companies to disseminate public warnings and alerts. During a blackout, sharing information isn't just for likes on social media. It's how we keep people safe, connect them with resources, and maintain social order. Two-way communications like cell phones and the internet might not last long during a grid outage, so one-way networks like radio and television broadcasts are essential to keep people informed. These facilities are often equipped with more backup fuel reserves and even emergency provisions for the staff so that they can continue to operate during a blackout for weeks if necessary.

moar

i reckon merica will go full mad max within 87 hours of the grid collapsing.

what say you?

Not one evening

Three meals from anarchy

I believe in the golden hoard theory. With no communication, it's going to take a bit. People will start communicating when the power doesn't come back up and no governmental agency has assured them of support. Then the general public is going to get fidgety. The smart ones have already put 2 and 2 together and now they are realizing that all bets are off and it's everyone for themselves.

Then every store and Wal-Mart gets looted and everyone is bunkering up. Til the golden hoard comes. Once it shows up, fixed fortifications become tombs.

To answer your question, op, my estimate is that, by Day 4, the facade is off and the soccer mom harems are starting to take shape.

Society begins to break down after three days without food. Total grid collapse? In a month, it'd be bedlam.

The power is on now.

Not staying in the "civilized" direction now.

3 months and it's mad max.

Attached File

I think that after about 3 days, most people would recognize their sole focus will be survival.  Without power to move food or water for 350 million people, it will get spicy extraordinarily fast.

One cell phone battery life of time for society to begin the collapse.  Because the realization that no more social media because your cell phone is dead and not recharging.

It’ll last a lot longer in Rosendale WI than in Milwaukee WI.

whose cah we gonna take?

Y'all are slippin' 87 seconds.
No two weeks.
A long weekend?

Less than a week before panic sets in and polite society evaporates.

You’d want to be out of any large city as soon as possible, I would imagine they would be flirting with disaster inside of 72 hours.

If you’re within a reasonable day’s walk of a large city, I’d expect problems within a week.

Outside of that, people are going to be pretty hungry after two weeks and without supplies, strong leadership, and a plan and vision for the future, specifically how to produce or acquire food, things would get unpleasant.

We’ll take mine.

  The average household in America has about three days worth of food. Without electricity and trucks delivering food, most people will go feral within a week. The really stupid ones will die of dehydration or water borne illness within that week.  Most people who are on maintenance meds have 30 days or less while a lucky few will have, at best, a 90 day supply
  People will abandon cities in mass and country folk will defend their meager supplies with varying degrees of success. Not many people are self sufficient enough to make a go at it. I'd rate my chances to survive a year as above average due to location and preps but still pretty grim.
A month in and Mad Max would be right at home.  

Funny thing about squirrels in the city.  They walk right up to you.   Dinner is served!


After working Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans and being there before after and then for Rita slamming through as well you can survive pretty long if you have enough MRE's and water. I was there for 3 months and we didn't use generators. Everything was charged out of 12 volt on the vehicles.    Society on the other hand is fukced and the grocery store only has enough canned food for about 10 families on the shelf.  The looting would empty the stores and doors would start getting kicked in real soon.

It's amazing standing in a major U.S. city as the sun goes down and the only sounds you hear are the waves slapping the side of the banks of the Mississippi River and the occasional helicopter flying off in the distance. Not even many dogs barking either.  Made me think of the days before gas powered engines and steam trains and just how quiet it all would be.

Blue cities will start to erupt within a week.

Suburbs would be good for weeks until the gennys run out of gas, the fridge is empty... and realization sets in. The friendly knocks on the neighbors door will start to turn into banging on windows and shouted demands to "share"... then you will see isolated fights and violence, which will blow up in the full scale war once the rest realize no police showed up to stop it.

Rural folks will be fine much longer...

  And just how long do you think that'll last?

DOOM!!

We had a 5 day outage last December and it was peaceful, but then we don’t live near the city.

Ever seen "The Road"?

Squirrels, fish, crawfish, crabs and a good net.   Country boys can survive.  City folk are Fukced.

Fon Du Lac has its share of predators and Rosendale is within striking distance. Any city sized area will be a threat.

  That wasn't a total collapse.  People had hope.  Take away that hope and multiply by nationwide and it will be a different story.

Nightfall.
They mostly come out at night, mostly.

A week? During the '77 Blackout, the looting in NYC began within an hour of the lights going out.
It was the same here in FL a few years back when the lights went out in some areas during a hurricane.
Within an hour, someone posted video to Twitter of a Foot Locker being looted.

Until the goon squads come.

Lots of dead beats in the rural areas too.  They will be a problem for the less prepared people.  And I don't mean less prepared supply wise.   I mean prepared with the ability to size up a situation quickly and the willingness to apply overwhelming violence when needed.   Plenty of good people just aren't wired like that.

87 hours it begins, 87 days breakdown is complete.

Not long, from what I have seen after bad hurricanes.

Tl;Dr that wall of text.

Read this instead. Selco says it happens quick.

https://ia801005.us.archive.org/34/items/TheSHTFAnthologySelco/The%20SHTF%20Anthology%20-%20Selco.pdf

2 days. Arfcom folks to pussy to eat a room temp meat,

In 2014 we had an ice storm that knocked out almost 70% of the county and many people were without power for 4-6 days. It was winter and cold so not a lot of people going outside anyway. I drove around to scope it out and some people had generators running, most houses were just dark. I still went to work, they had power.  It was just like everything paused a few days. But everyone knew it was coming back. If people didn’t know whether power was ever coming back they might have been more antsy. I think society would last a while, people will make it work. Some areas might be worse.

I went shooting at a church sponsored event and out of 15 people only 4 were competent, including me and my son and a cop. Everyone else couldn't hit a 12" steel at 30' or if they did it took a full mag.

It was eye opening.

30 days

I know that feeling. When relatively minor Wilma hit Broward county it was the same. I climbed up on my roof that night and there were almost no lights on. Downtown Ft. Lauderdale was dark. The next evening I made a run to Ormond and it was dark until I got out of Palm Beach County. It was surreal and disturbing when I thought of what was brewing in that darkness.

I can only Imagine how the sounds of generators will draw those folks like moths to a lamp. “Hey, I hear your generator, can I plug my phone in and charge it?”

Big democratic urban areas?  Sauve qui peu! (save yourself or every man for himself)  I fill sand bags, hunker down and stay alert.

I'm in the country so it's much better here.  When the winds knocked down over 70 power poles, lights went for six day for me and for the folks further down the valley went for two weeks.  Nobody rioted, broke into houses for food or panicked.

Rich & Vibrant Urban Areas wouldn't last a day

it would take a few weeks for it to reach rural america

then it would take a few more weeks for rural america to find burial spaces for all the urban yoots who strayed into rural areas looking to expand their instant reparations

then a few more weeks to find those bodies

We had an ice storm about 30 years ago, no power for almost 4 days, we lit up a neon beer sign in the window, nobody stopped by.

The most disappointing aspect of a complete system collapse is we won't be able to watch it happen on TV.

Seriously though, no one will have a clue what is happening beyond personal line of sight, and no way find out.  The rate of information exchange will go from instant to glacial in a matter of hours.  The whole concept of not having instant access/mobility is something many people will have never experienced before in their lives.  That alone will have people all fucked up.

Never mind what follows when tummies start rumbling and fuel tanks hit E.

Exactly
Here’s an example for those folks that think they’ll just live off the land.

There are approximately 30 million whitetail deer in the US. There are approximately 350 million people. If just 10% of the population shoots 1 deer they are virtually extinct. Use that on any wildlife species. Bad plan.

And the people who say; “I’ll just plant a garden”. LOL. There’s a huge learning curve to that. And you’ll stave before you get any harvest whatsoever.

Truth. While the second half of Wilma was still blowing a little I drove up 441 in Ft. Lauderdale from Davie Blvd. to check on a friend who lived in a camper on Commercial Blvd. During that short trip I saw dozens of a certain demographic climbing in and out of business windows. At Sunrise and 441 four of them had the intersection set up for car jacking. Thankfully I spotted them under the bridge before I had a problem.

The storm wasn't even over.

It’s not just about the acquisition of food.
What about all the ppl on mood altering meds?
What about the addicts?
What about the ppl who need refrigeration for their medicine?
What about the health hazard from our waste?  And then, from the dead bodies?
What about the diseases that will be everywhere, due to water and food contamination?

It would suck for the vast majority.