Interest rates go up..............

People can afford "less house", because they are looking at monthly payments.
Prices stay the same as it is more difficult to afford a house
Sales go down, as people that don't have to move will stay put, if their financing is better than current rates.

Interest rates go down..............

People can afford more house, because they are looking at monthly payments, not the toatl price.
Prices go up, because people can finance more the house, upgrading from the current to the next rung is easier.
Sales go up, as people that couldn't previously afford a house get into the market, and people with current mortgages, refinance by buying bigger.

I'm at 5.25 on my mortgage, I bought at 5.75 and refinanced, if I had the 5.25 from the outset, I would have bought more house - I bought new from a builder

If I tried to get the same house now, I'm not sure I could afford it since I would be looking at 7.75 or more for a rate.

Quoted: If I tried to get the same house now, I'm not sure I could afford it since I would be looking at 7.75 or more for a rate.

where do you get that rate?

jumbo 30 yr fixed loans are still below 6.5%

A no doc loan?

Since I live in Western NY, there was no housing boom, so there is no new housing bust here.  It's been broken here for a long time.  Got my house new in 1986 for $88,000.  Real estate agent recently told me it is worth $134,000.  This includes a $32,000 addition we put on a few years ago.  Add inflation, interest and property taxes ($4,000/year) and it has been one big money pit for me.  

For those in the business it is a 1,940 sq. ft colonial on a treed lot on a cul-de-sac.   It also has a non-heated (to keep taxes down) 300 sq.ft. four season sunroom.  Permanently heating the sun room would have increased the square footage and hence the property taxes.  Space heaters do fine.

Quoted: Since I live in Western NY, there was no housing boom, so there is no new housing bust here.  It's been broken here for a long time.  Got my house new in 1986 for $88,000.  Real estate agent recently told me it is worth $134,000.  This includes a $32,000 addition we put on a few years ago.  Add inflation, interest and property taxes ($4,000/year) and it has been one big money pit for me.   For those in the business it is a 1,940 sq. ft colonial on a treed lot on a cul-de-sac.   It also has a non-heated (to keep taxes down) 300 sq.ft. four season sunroom.  Permanently heating the sun room would have increased the square footage and hence the property taxes.  Space heaters do fine.

Let's see 88K+32K=120K house is worth 134K, you are 14K ahead.

4,000 per year in interest and taxes, so $350+principal (guessing $300) per month to live there

$650 per month to live in a 2000 sq ft+ house, on a treed lot, on a cul-de-sac.

Yeah that's tough.

If you all need any more proof of a serious problem in parts of Florida, check this out!  This is the result of an auction in Naples for several houses.  AFAIK the houses did sell at the prices listed (all but 15 or so that didn't get a bid!)

Naples Auction Results

in the last 4 months i have seen asking prices for LA area condos go from the high 900s to the mid 700s. units that started at 699 in long beach off pine ave are asking for low to mid 400s. for those that think you won't see a large dip because you live in middle america you will. CA, FL, NV started this realestate scam it is just starting to turn here you will also feel it.

now that there is no 25% a year increase the people that were buying over the last 6 years are not buying anymore. if you bought in the last 2 years in any of those states you are already upside down. call your sleeze bag morgatge broker and ask why they won't/can't refi you now that you owe more than your house is valued at.

PLS PLS PLS KEEP COMING DOWN!!!!!



Fall baby fall!!

Quoted: Quoted: Since I live in Western NY, there was no housing boom, so there is no new housing bust here.  It's been broken here for a long time.  Got my house new in 1986 for $88,000.  Real estate agent recently told me it is worth $134,000.  This includes a $32,000 addition we put on a few years ago.  Add inflation, interest and property taxes ($4,000/year) and it has been one big money pit for me.   For those in the business it is a 1,940 sq. ft colonial on a treed lot on a cul-de-sac.   It also has a non-heated (to keep taxes down) 300 sq.ft. four season sunroom.  Permanently heating the sun room would have increased the square footage and hence the property taxes.  Space heaters do fine. Let's see 88K+32K=120K house is worth 134K, you are 14K ahead. 4,000 per year in interest and taxes, so $350+principal (guessing $300) per month to live there $650 per month to live in a 2000 sq ft+ house, on a treed lot, on a cul-de-sac. Yeah that's tough.

Real estate is not the investment that real estate agents like to tell us it is around where I live.  Extremely high property taxes lowers the value of our houses in a very real way.   I know people in similar houses that pay over $6,000/year in property taxes.  A friend of mine with a house re-assessed at $240,000 has to now pay $9,000/year in property taxes.  18 years ago he purchased an old beater farm house and spent 15 years fixing it up.  Now his property taxes alone consume almost 20% of his pay.  What a joke.  He is going to have to sell the house and 15 years labor and find a place that he can afford.  This runaway property tax increase is because the State of New York mandates plenty of welfare and healthcare programs without providing the counties funding to pay for them.  The only way they can raise revenue is through sales taxes or property taxes.  

Not included in any of our property taxes is sewers, water or trash collection.  These are all separate bills, as they should be.  

I have lived in this house for 20 years.   1st mortgage is paid off.  Factor in 20 years of inflation, taxes, repairs, interest and it has cost me quite a bit to live in this house.  What I am saying is that  where I live, there never was a housing boom to go bust.  Just on the inflation factor alone, my house would have to be worth about $175,000, not including the additon, to have held it's real value.  

Now if I don't fork over $4,000/year to the local government for my government owned house, I get evicted.  I have come to the belief that the government owns all of our houses.  Just don't pay your real estate taxes and see how long you are allowed to "own" it.  On top of they they can now confiscate your property for any reason whatsoever.  

Quoted: I have lived in this house for 20 years.   1st mortgage is paid off.  Factor in 20 years of inflation, taxes, repairs, interest and it has cost me quite a bit to live in this house.  What I am saying is that  where I live, there never was a housing boom to go bust.  Just on the inflation factor alone, my house would have to be worth about $175,000, not including the additon, to have held it's real value.

How much do you think it would cost you to rent a 2000 sq ft house for the last 20 years?

Not to mention you OWN a 134K asset.

It's not just an investment, it's where you live. Most everyone wants someplace to live.  This is just another cost associated with living.

I live in Northern NJ.  I get a kick out of you guys talking abouit buying a nice house for 150-200k!!!

Starter houses in my area start at 250-300k and they are dumps.  50-75 years old on small lots.

I'm 20 years old and own my own business.  I have no idea when i will be able to afford a house unless i start making a 100k a year or more real soon.

Matt

Quoted: I live in Northern NJ.  I get a kick out of you guys talking abouit buying a nice house for 150-200k!!! Starter houses in my area start at 250-300k and they are dumps.  50-75 years old on small lots. I'm 20 years old and own my own business.  I have no idea when i will be able to afford a house unless i start making a 100k a year or more real soon. Matt

Housing up here is inexpensive but taxes are out of sight.  My son lives in a house in Deleware that is worth 50% more than mine is and pays only 1/7 of what I pay in property taxes.  See the relationship?  High taxes = low house values.    At least where he is, after the house is paid off, he is not stuck with property taxes that will be higher than his mortgage payments were initially.

Havent you gotten out of there yet?

Quoted: Quoted: Since I live in Western NY, there was no housing boom, so there is no new housing bust here.  It's been broken here for a long time.  Got my house new in 1986 for $88,000.  Real estate agent recently told me it is worth $134,000.  This includes a $32,000 addition we put on a few years ago.  Add inflation, interest and property taxes ($4,000/year) and it has been one big money pit for me.   For those in the business it is a 1,940 sq. ft colonial on a treed lot on a cul-de-sac.   It also has a non-heated (to keep taxes down) 300 sq.ft. four season sunroom.  Permanently heating the sun room would have increased the square footage and hence the property taxes.  Space heaters do fine. Let's see 88K+32K=120K house is worth 134K, you are 14K ahead. 4,000 per year in interest and taxes, so $350+principal (guessing $300) per month to live there $650 per month to live in a 2000 sq ft+ house, on a treed lot, on a cul-de-sac. Yeah that's tough.

How much would he have if he had put 88k into the stock market starting in 1986??  A bazillion dollars?  

I have been watching particular houses in Sacramento Ca and suburban MD over the last four months because I am thinking of taking jobs in those cities.  

In both markets the individual (NOT similar) houses have dropped in asking price from near $700k-800k in June to about $500k-$600k today in each market on the realty websites I review.  One new house in MD went from an asking price of $700k to $500k in that time period.  

Ask me if I'm glad I didn't buy in June.  

Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Since I live in Western NY, there was no housing boom, so there is no new housing bust here.  It's been broken here for a long time.  Got my house new in 1986 for $88,000.  Real estate agent recently told me it is worth $134,000.  This includes a $32,000 addition we put on a few years ago.  Add inflation, interest and property taxes ($4,000/year) and it has been one big money pit for me.   For those in the business it is a 1,940 sq. ft colonial on a treed lot on a cul-de-sac.   It also has a non-heated (to keep taxes down) 300 sq.ft. four season sunroom.  Permanently heating the sun room would have increased the square footage and hence the property taxes.  Space heaters do fine. Let's see 88K+32K=120K house is worth 134K, you are 14K ahead. 4,000 per year in interest and taxes, so $350+principal (guessing $300) per month to live there $650 per month to live in a 2000 sq ft+ house, on a treed lot, on a cul-de-sac. Yeah that's tough. How much would he have if he had put 88k into the stock market starting in 1986??  A bazillion dollars?

I suppose it depends what stock he bought.
It also depends on the fees the stock brokers charge.
Let's also not forget, he didn't have 88K in 1986, he borrowed 88K. What do you suppose the interest rate for 88K in investing money would be?

He would still also have to pay for a place to live.

Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Since I live in Western NY, there was no housing boom, so there is no new housing bust here.  It's been broken here for a long time.  Got my house new in 1986 for $88,000.  Real estate agent recently told me it is worth $134,000.  This includes a $32,000 addition we put on a few years ago.  Add inflation, interest and property taxes ($4,000/year) and it has been one big money pit for me.   For those in the business it is a 1,940 sq. ft colonial on a treed lot on a cul-de-sac.   It also has a non-heated (to keep taxes down) 300 sq.ft. four season sunroom.  Permanently heating the sun room would have increased the square footage and hence the property taxes.  Space heaters do fine. Let's see 88K+32K=120K house is worth 134K, you are 14K ahead. 4,000 per year in interest and taxes, so $350+principal (guessing $300) per month to live there $650 per month to live in a 2000 sq ft+ house, on a treed lot, on a cul-de-sac. Yeah that's tough. How much would he have if he had put 88k into the stock market starting in 1986??  A bazillion dollars?   I suppose it depends what stock he bought. It also depends on the fees the stock brokers charge. Let's also not forget, he didn't have 88K in 1986, he borrowed 88K. What do you suppose the interest rate for 88K in investing money would be? He would still also have to pay for a place to live.

I'm posing a real question here.  Could someone familiar with market prices help here?  Hard to do, but presume that he put about $16k down payment and $750 or $800 a month into a spider or some kind of broad index fund that rode the wave from Dow 2000 in 1986 or whatever to Dow 12000 last week, then subtract the $130000 he has "made" since 1986 on the house value, and that is your opportunity cost of owning a house?  
I'm just comparing his housing "investment" to a real investment.

Quoted: I'm posing a real question here.  Could someone familiar with market prices help here?  Hard to do, but presume that he put about $16k down payment and $750 or $800 a month into a spider or some kind of broad index fund that rode the wave from Dow 2000 in 1986 or whatever to Dow 12000 last week, then subtract the $130000 he has "made" since 1986 on the house value, and that is your opportunity cost of owning a house?   I'm just comparing his housing "investment" to a real investment.

What if he invested poorly and ends up with bupkiss?

Please tell the developers here that so they will stop taking top farm land, and building housing complexes.

So...is this the right time to re-finance my interest-only mort.?





Sheep

Quoted: So...is this the right time to re-finance my interest-only mort.? Sheep

The time to refinace was before you signed

I live on 85 acres of family land with several relatives and their homes.  We aint going anywhere... so lower the damn value of this whole neighborhood and keep our taxes down.




- BG

Quoted: I live in Northern NJ.  I get a kick out of you guys talking abouit buying a nice house for 150-200k!!! Starter houses in my area start at 250-300k and they are dumps.  50-75 years old on small lots. I'm 20 years old and own my own business.  I have no idea when i will be able to afford a house unless i start making a 100k a year or more real soon. Matt

i get a kick out of all of you . average price on oahu is $635,000 .


bought the house 5 years ago for $204,000 , today bottom line is $750,000 . try payin taxes on that .
688

Quoted: You will know when the housing market is crashing.  But you won't care because the rest of the economy will be in the shitter and the housing market will be the least of your worries.

3rd quarter GDP=1.6%

Should I panic yet?

I cannot imagine paying the house property taxes that some of you do. I pay about $750 a year and I bitch about that. One reason I won't move right now, property assessment are locked to the rate of inflation or 1% till it's sold.

There WOULD be a revolution if most people really understood to total percentage they are forced to pay to the state and feds.                                          

Quoted: Please tell the developers here that so they will stop taking top farm land, and building housing complexes.

Same thing happening here. Won't happen until the local market finally really crashes out and the banks stop lending money to "wanna be" homeowners who really can't afford it and the "wanna be" developers that will never be able to unload their crap built houses.

Once it reaches the point (if ever) locally where a bunch of 'developers' lose their ass and shut down then you'll have the sorting out of the situation and a more realistic building pace that will match the market.

You'll know when all the local TV stations start doing the "expose's" on the shoddily built houses falling apart, the builders that are long bankrupt and untouchable, the pay offs to the building inspectors to sign the sheets, and the bankers that claim they were just providing a service to their customers and it's no ones fault but the buyer for not having a clue.

At least that's the way it went the last time around here.

Uh, the housing market is nOT crashing. It is simply correcting from the crazy increases of the past couple of years. Nothing to see here....move along.

Quoted: Quoted: Fucking SNOOZE.  Prices have gone down between 2% and 9% but the number of PURCHASES of new homes is holding and/or going up.   The market is NOT crashing, it is readjusting its prices to reflect what the goddamn house is WORTH not what some yuppie idiot with too much credit THINKS it is worth. I own a house in GA that is ~160k.  In NJ the same house would be $350K-$400K. In the "right" neighborhood in CA it would be worth $800 to 1 MIL.  (plus I have over a third of an acre in a nice subdivision.   The price of my house was ~ $100 per square foot. Would YOU be willing to spend $500 per square foot for a 20 year old house??????? NO!!  Because no matter what the "MARKET" says.. IT IS NOT WORTH THAT, thus it is overinflated.  Eventually CREDIT will run out and the skyrocketing prices will fall back to Earth and that will allow MORE people to own homes, THUS INCREASING THE ACTUAL "WEALTH" of the population at large.   Renters do NOT make for a healthy economy. Price is the agreement between supply and demand. If you had a lot of people making shitloads of money who wanted to live where you  live, you'd have to pay shitloads of money for your land. End of story. The price isn't what you happen to be willing to pay, it's what the market will bear. Nobody wants to pay top dollar for a house.

Ahh HA!!!  So all these idiots that paid for their homes with interest only loans.......   The MARKET IS NOT GOING TO BEAR THAT!!!   This is where the market is going to turn down....  In these "hot markets"  I am willing to bet we see a 40%-50% drop in housing prices  or a jump in sales of lower priced housing... or "get both" and have a market that balances back out into not being over-valued.

Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Fucking SNOOZE.  Prices have gone down between 2% and 9% but the number of PURCHASES of new homes is holding and/or going up.   The market is NOT crashing, it is readjusting its prices to reflect what the goddamn house is WORTH not what some yuppie idiot with too much credit THINKS it is worth. I own a house in GA that is ~160k.  In NJ the same house would be $350K-$400K. In the "right" neighborhood in CA it would be worth $800 to 1 MIL.  (plus I have over a third of an acre in a nice subdivision.   The price of my house was ~ $100 per square foot. Would YOU be willing to spend $500 per square foot for a 20 year old house??????? NO!!  Because no matter what the "MARKET" says.. IT IS NOT WORTH THAT, thus it is overinflated. Eventually CREDIT will run out and the skyrocketing prices will fall back to Earth and that will allow MORE people to own homes, THUS INCREASING THE ACTUAL "WEALTH" of the population at large.   Renters do NOT make for a healthy economy. Price is the agreement between supply and demand. If you had a lot of people making shitloads of money who wanted to live where you  live, you'd have to pay shitloads of money for your land. End of story. The price isn't what you happen to be willing to pay, it's what the market will bear. Nobody wants to pay top dollar for a house. Ahh HA!!!  So all these idiots that paid for their homes with interest only loans.......   The MARKET IS NOT GOING TO BEAR THAT!!!   This is where the market is going to turn down....  In these "hot markets"  I am willing to bet we see a 40%-50% drop in housing prices  or a jump in sales of lower priced housing... or "get both" and have a market that balances back out into not being over-valued.

And there it is.........a loosening of credit situation, really.  Some have been calling it the "credit bubble."  
The money we have been borrowing from the Chinese to buy their shit and build our houses and pay for our .gov spending will have to be paid back with interest.  The party may be over, in many ways.

Good, I'm hoping to buy a home soon and I'm pissed that the market has gone haywire over the past 2-3 years.


Out of the top 10 housing markets to try and buy into, I'm in like number 7 on that list.

Bakersfield Ca., it's growing so fast that nothing is really going down but rather it's holding stagnant.    I missed out 3 years ago when some stupid little 1100-1250sqft homes took off, instead of 125k or so they jumped to 170k+ and now they are holding at 200-230k dollars.

I hate the idea of throwing money away on rent for an apartment.   If it comes down a bit I may wind up selling off a few guns or atleast parting out some of the ARs and optics so I can position myself to get into a home.

Quoted: Good, I'm hoping to buy a home soon and I'm pissed that the market has gone haywire over the past 2-3 years. Out of the top 10 housing markets to try and buy into, I'm in like number 7 on that list. Bakersfield Ca., it's growing so fast that nothing is really going down but rather it's holding stagnant.    I missed out 3 years ago when some stupid little 1100-1250sqft homes took off, instead of 125k or so they jumped to 170k+ and now they are holding at 200-230k dollars. I hate the idea of throwing money away on rent for an apartment.   If it comes down a bit I may wind up selling off a few guns or atleast parting out some of the ARs and optics so I can position myself to get into a home.

How much cheaper is it to rent than to buy the same or target square footage house in that area?  If you can rent the same house for half the money it would take to make the mortgage payment, the real estate  market in your area may be over-valued, according to some.

Bakersfield? Prices should be dropping smartly there. The central valley has way too much inventory.

Quoted: Quoted: Good, I'm hoping to buy a home soon and I'm pissed that the market has gone haywire over the past 2-3 years. Out of the top 10 housing markets to try and buy into, I'm in like number 7 on that list. Bakersfield Ca., it's growing so fast that nothing is really going down but rather it's holding stagnant.    I missed out 3 years ago when some stupid little 1100-1250sqft homes took off, instead of 125k or so they jumped to 170k+ and now they are holding at 200-230k dollars. I hate the idea of throwing money away on rent for an apartment.   If it comes down a bit I may wind up selling off a few guns or atleast parting out some of the ARs and optics so I can position myself to get into a home. How much cheaper is it to rent than to buy the same or target square footage house in that area?  If you can rent the same house for half the money it would take to make the mortgage payment, the real estate  market in your area may be over-valued, according to some.

THAT IS WHERE I AM REALLY PISSED!

For a decent apartment, 900-1000sqft, in an area of town that is safe(pretty much mandatory if you've got a gun collection/safe), you are looking at 850-1k dollars a month.   Renting a home?   You might as well buy a house and rent out one of your rooms(which I am considering if I could find a worthy roommate but I'd prefer to not have to rely on rental income).

The mortgage payment on a tiny 1100-1200 sqft place is right around 1100-1400 depending on area of town and what the cost of the home is.

There is a convient shortage of apartments that makes it so that apartment rentals are almost as expensive as a mortgage payment in this area.    There are some cheaper places but if I get into one of those apartments it's in a not so great area of town and I'll have to take the gunsafe and put it at my parents place until I can get some place more safe.


And god, being an ammo whore really doesn't help with the apartment situation....


I just started a new job and it's gonna be awhile until I know just how much I can expect to bring home, hopefully once I can start grabbing some overtime in a few weeks I'll be looking at an income that will make a mortgage payment more feasible as opposed to being stuck to renting.

Quoted: Bakersfield? Prices should be dropping smartly there. The central valley has way too much inventory.

I've been watching it pretty closely the past 5 years.   We tried getting in about 3 to 3 1/2 years ago and I just barely missed out on what would of been affordable at that time with the job I was working then.

4-5 years ago it was great, buddy of mine managed to get a 1500+ sqft place with decent sized backyard for right around 128k.    A year later and his house was valued almost another 40k more.


I'm crossing my fingers on the whole housing market falling thing, but too many people from LA are willing to buy up here and commute to LA every day.    It's still VERY inflated.


I worked for UPS up until 3 weeks ago.   5  years ago the peak summer volume was around 18-19k packages a day.   This last summer?   We were looking at 24k packages a day on average with spurts of upwards of 27k once or twice a month.

People are spending like crazy but I also think it's a sign that this town is continuing to grow and isn't slowing down terribly much.   If things were truely as bad as they say it is, I think that I would have seen a trend in how people are spending money and effecting the volume coming through UPS.