Explain to me how ACORN's registrations effecting the polling? - Page 3

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Posted: 10/17/2008 1:31:11 PM EDT

[#1]

Quoted:

Quoted:

When you register a bunch of duplicate persons, or a bunch of people that won't/can't vote and they are registered as Democrats, you inaccurately skew the voter rolls to appear to be a higher Democratic % than it really is. Thus the % of Democrats polled by the pollsters will also be inaccurately increased a well.
.

Again, from the polling methodology article that I posted, the numbers they use for Democrats vs. Republicans has been static since 1984.

If this is not the case and you have data showing that pollsters are changing their numbers based on the party identifier criteria, I'd like to see them because I find this subject very interesting.

AP/YAHOO Poll of 873 Democrats; 650 Republicans shows OBAMA 44%, MCCAIN 42%...

Kind of scary for Dems if you ask me.

That's kind of a weird poll. No independents polled at all?

No,it's kind of weird that you don't want to talk about the list of polls I just posted.
All the print & network media polls are very different from the professional polls.
Why is that? lets see if you can tell me with out looked up the talking points.

Posted: 10/17/2008 1:31:39 PM EDT

[#2]

Quoted:

Quoted:

When you register a bunch of duplicate persons, or a bunch of people that won't/can't vote and they are registered as Democrats, you inaccurately skew the voter rolls to appear to be a higher Democratic % than it really is. Thus the % of Democrats polled by the pollsters will also be inaccurately increased a well.
.

Again, from the polling methodology article that I posted, the numbers they use for Democrats vs. Republicans has been static since 1984.

If this is not the case and you have data showing that pollsters are changing their numbers based on the party identifier criteria, I'd like to see them because I find this subject very interesting.

AP/YAHOO Poll of 873 Democrats; 650 Republicans shows OBAMA 44%, MCCAIN 42%...

Kind of scary for Dems if you ask me. Imagine if they would have polled 650 dems vs 650 republicans.

15% more Dems polled than Republicans.

Nope... no oversampling or "expanded methodology" here.

Yeah I don't get how that poll means squat without even including independents.

Posted: 10/17/2008 1:33:07 PM EDT

[#3]

Quoted:

Quoted:
Little Denver rich boy, Mummy & Daddy's money financed a trip to Germany to buy a new bimmer, Dan Teh TROLL

www.e90post.com/forums/showthread.php?t=23895

Predictable… had all the earmarks of a spoiled kid.

Amazing the inferences you guys make with absolutely no information.

So give us some concrete info then, like are you or have you ever been a registered member over at Democratic Underground?

Posted: 10/17/2008 1:33:20 PM EDT

[#4]

Quoted:

Quoted:

When you register a bunch of duplicate persons, or a bunch of people that won't/can't vote and they are registered as Democrats, you inaccurately skew the voter rolls to appear to be a higher Democratic % than it really is. Thus the % of Democrats polled by the pollsters will also be inaccurately increased a well.
.

Again, from the polling methodology article that I posted, the numbers they use for Democrats vs. Republicans has been static since 1984.

If this is not the case and you have data showing that pollsters are changing their numbers based on the party identifier criteria, I'd like to see them because I find this subject very interesting.

AP/YAHOO Poll of 873 Democrats; 650 Republicans shows OBAMA 44%, MCCAIN 42%...

Kind of scary for Dems if you ask me. Imagine if they would have polled 650 dems vs 650 republicans.

15% more Dems polled than Republicans.

Nope... no oversampling or "expanded methodology" here.

Yeah I don't get how that poll means squat without even including independents.

There are next no independents.
It's a media myth.

Posted: 10/17/2008 1:34:28 PM EDT

[#5]

Quoted:

Yeah I don't get how that poll means squat without even including independents.

Guys don't let him do this, don't let him change the subject.

Posted: 10/17/2008 1:34:55 PM EDT

[#6]

Quoted:

Quoted:

When you register a bunch of duplicate persons, or a bunch of people that won't/can't vote and they are registered as Democrats, you inaccurately skew the voter rolls to appear to be a higher Democratic % than it really is. Thus the % of Democrats polled by the pollsters will also be inaccurately increased a well.
.

Again, from the polling methodology article that I posted, the numbers they use for Democrats vs. Republicans has been static since 1984.

If this is not the case and you have data showing that pollsters are changing their numbers based on the party identifier criteria, I'd like to see them because I find this subject very interesting.

AP/YAHOO Poll of 873 Democrats; 650 Republicans shows OBAMA 44%, MCCAIN 42%...

Kind of scary for Dems if you ask me.

That's kind of a weird poll. No independents polled at all?

No,it's kind of weird that you don't want to talk about the list of polls I just posted.
All the print & network media polls are very different from the professional polls.
Why is that? lets see if you can tell me with out looked up the talking points.

Are they? I really have only been watching pollster, zogby, gallup and rasmussen.

If they are very different, I can't claim to have any idea why. If you say it's bias, maybe you're right. I honestly have not done any reading on the subject and I don't really care.

The question of this thread is posed to those who think ACORN is screwing up the polling. It still has yet to be proved to me how they are doing it.

Posted: 10/17/2008 1:35:08 PM EDT

[#7]

Quoted:

Yeah I don't get how that poll means squat without even including independents.

When you have an agenda, methodolgy can easily be twisted to serve it.

Independats could have swayed it in a way they didn't like, so they removed them and got what they wanted.

But that poll still gets rolled into the averages.

Posted: 10/17/2008 1:36:07 PM EDT

[#8]

Quoted:

Quoted:

When you register a bunch of duplicate persons, or a bunch of people that won't/can't vote and they are registered as Democrats, you inaccurately skew the voter rolls to appear to be a higher Democratic % than it really is. Thus the % of Democrats polled by the pollsters will also be inaccurately increased a well.
.

Again, from the polling methodology article that I posted, the numbers they use for Democrats vs. Republicans has been static since 1984.

If this is not the case and you have data showing that pollsters are changing their numbers based on the party identifier criteria, I'd like to see them because I find this subject very interesting.

AP/YAHOO Poll of 873 Democrats; 650 Republicans shows OBAMA 44%, MCCAIN 42%...

Kind of scary for Dems if you ask me. Imagine if they would have polled 650 dems vs 650 republicans.

15% more Dems polled than Republicans.

Nope... no oversampling or "expanded methodology" here.

Yeah I don't get how that poll means squat without even including independents.

There are next no independents.
It's a media myth.

If you are talking voter registration, there most certainly are. They make up about 26% of the population.

Posted: 10/17/2008 1:36:59 PM EDT

[#9]

Quoted:

Quoted:
Little Denver rich boy, Mummy & Daddy's money financed a trip to Germany to buy a new bimmer, Dan Teh TROLL

www.e90post.com/forums/showthread.php?t=23895

Predictable… had all the earmarks of a spoiled kid.

Amazing the inferences you guys make with absolutely no information.

So give us some concrete info... like are you or have you ever been a registered member over at Democratic Underground?

Maybe this spoiled kid should be getting the same treatment a working man like Joe the Plummer is getting.

Posted: 10/17/2008 1:38:10 PM EDT

[#10]

Quoted:

Quoted:
Little Denver rich boy, Mummy & Daddy's money financed a trip to Germany to buy a new bimmer, Dan Teh TROLL

www.e90post.com/forums/showthread.php?t=23895

Predictable… had all the earmarks of a spoiled kid.

Amazing the inferences you guys make with absolutely no information.

So give us some concrete info... like are you or have you ever been a registered member over at Democratic Underground?

LOL yes. I registered there 4 years ago after I heard about it on arfcom. You'll notice that my registration here is March of '04 and there is May of '04.

I have posted twice there and not once since May '04. I forgot that I had even signed up and have no idea what my password is. I have not logged in ot that site in over 4 years.

Is that enough info?

Posted: 10/17/2008 1:39:01 PM EDT

[#11]

Quoted:

Quoted:

Yeah I don't get how that poll means squat without even including independents.

When you have an agenda, methodolgy can easily be twisted to serve it.

Independats could have swayed it in a way they didn't like, so they removed them and got what they wanted.

But that poll still gets rolled into the averages.

See now that is a travesty.

Posted: 10/17/2008 1:39:44 PM EDT

[#12]

Quoted:

Quoted:

When you register a bunch of duplicate persons, or a bunch of people that won't/can't vote and they are registered as Democrats, you inaccurately skew the voter rolls to appear to be a higher Democratic % than it really is. Thus the % of Democrats polled by the pollsters will also be inaccurately increased a well.
.

Again, from the polling methodology article that I posted, the numbers they use for Democrats vs. Republicans has been static since 1984.

If this is not the case and you have data showing that pollsters are changing their numbers based on the party identifier criteria, I'd like to see them because I find this subject very interesting.

AP/YAHOO Poll of 873 Democrats; 650 Republicans shows OBAMA 44%, MCCAIN 42%...

Kind of scary for Dems if you ask me.

That's kind of a weird poll. No independents polled at all?

No,it's kind of weird that you don't want to talk about the list of polls I just posted.
All the print & network media polls are very different from the professional polls.
Why is that? lets see if you can tell me with out looked up the talking points.

Are they? I really have only been watching pollster, zogby, gallup and rasmussen.

If they are very different, I can't claim to have any idea why. If you say it's bias, maybe you're right. I honestly have not done any reading on the subject and I don't really care.

The question of this thread is posed to those who think ACORN is screwing up the polling. It still has yet to be proved to me how they are doing it.

Judge: Mr. KUpolo, are you ready to give your summation?

KUpolo: [ stepping out] It's just "KUpolo", your Honor.. and, yes, I'm ready...

Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, I'm just a caveman. I fell on some ice and later got thawed out by some of your scientists. Your world frightens and confuses me! Sometimes the honking horns of your traffic make me want to get out of my BMW.. and run off into the hills, or wherever.. Sometimes when I get a message on my fax machine, I wonder: "Did little demons get inside and type it?" I don't know!

My primitive mind can't grasp these concepts. But there is one thing I do know - there is no evidence that artificially inflated registration rolls can be translated into skewed poll numbers. Thank you.

Posted: 10/17/2008 1:40:11 PM EDT

[#13]

Quoted:

Quoted:
Little Denver rich boy, Mummy & Daddy's money financed a trip to Germany to buy a new bimmer, Dan Teh TROLL

www.e90post.com/forums/showthread.php?t=23895

Predictable… had all the earmarks of a spoiled kid.

Amazing the inferences you guys make with absolutely no information.

So give us some concrete info... like are you or have you ever been a registered member over at Democratic Underground?

Maybe this spoiled kid should be getting the same treatment a working man like Joe the Plummer is getting.

I graduated college 8 years ago. I don't really think of myself as a kid.

Posted: 10/17/2008 1:40:19 PM EDT

[#14]

Quoted:

Quoted:

When you register a bunch of duplicate persons, or a bunch of people that won't/can't vote and they are registered as Democrats, you inaccurately skew the voter rolls to appear to be a higher Democratic % than it really is. Thus the % of Democrats polled by the pollsters will also be inaccurately increased a well.
.

Again, from the polling methodology article that I posted, the numbers they use for Democrats vs. Republicans has been static since 1984.

If this is not the case and you have data showing that pollsters are changing their numbers based on the party identifier criteria, I'd like to see them because I find this subject very interesting.

AP/YAHOO Poll of 873 Democrats; 650 Republicans shows OBAMA 44%, MCCAIN 42%...

Kind of scary for Dems if you ask me.

That's kind of a weird poll. No independents polled at all?

No,it's kind of weird that you don't want to talk about the list of polls I just posted.
All the print & network media polls are very different from the professional polls.
Why is that? lets see if you can tell me with out looked up the talking points.

Are they? I really have only been watching pollster, zogby, gallup and rasmussen.

If they are very different, I can't claim to have any idea why. If you say it's bias, maybe you're right. I honestly have not done any reading on the subject and I don't really care.

The question of this thread is posed to those who think ACORN is screwing up the polling. It still has yet to be proved to me how they are doing it.

Your right that was the question,so I told you and you said.

I understand that. What I am asking is people keep saying that the polls are showing an Obama lead because of ACORN's fraud. I do not understand how their fraud is skewing the current polling data.

So who is saying the lead is due to ACORN?
Don't chage the subject.

Posted: 10/17/2008 1:42:52 PM EDT

[#15]

Quoted:

I graduated college 8 years ago. I don't really think of myself as a kid.

Christ! ~~Seven~~ Eight years of college down the drain. Might as well join the fucking Peace Corps.

Posted: 10/17/2008 1:43:46 PM EDT

[#16]

Hello!?!? whats the hold up?
Are you tolling more than one site at a time?

Who said ACORN is messing with the polls?

Posted: 10/17/2008 1:47:14 PM EDT

[#17]

Quoted:
Hello!?!? whats the hold up?
Are you tolling more than one site at a time?

Who said ACORN is messing with the polls?

Easy killer. I'm actually trying to get some real work done too.

This was the post that got me thinking about it today. I know I've seen more references, but I don't have the search function because I'm too cheap to pay.

www.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?b=1&f=5&t=772509

Posted: 10/17/2008 1:47:59 PM EDT

[#18]

Quoted:

Quoted:

I graduated college 8 years ago. I don't really think of myself as a kid.

Christ! ~~Seven~~ Eight years of college down the drain. Might as well join the fucking Peace Corps.

I wasn't in college for 8 years although man that would have been fun.

Posted: 10/17/2008 2:02:47 PM EDT

[#19]

Quoted:

Quoted:
Handing in fraudulent voter registrations is illegal. That's all anyone needs to know.

Yeah I get that but how does it affect polling?

Read the thread, dumbass.

Thanks for the name calling. No one has responded to the counterpoint I made. I assume you must have some new information???

PEOPLE HAVE EXPLAINED TO YOU HOW FRAUDULENT VOTER REGISTRATIONS SKEW THE POLLS

Posted: 10/17/2008 2:03:32 PM EDT

[#20]

Quoted:

Quoted:
Hello!?!? whats the hold up?
Are you tolling more than one site at a time?

Who said ACORN is messing with the polls?

Easy killer. I'm actually trying to get some real work done too.

This was the post that got me thinking about it today. I know I've seen more references, but I don't have the search function because I'm too cheap to pay.

www.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?b=1&f=5&t=772509

Quoted:

Quoted:
How is ACORN doing in Missouri?

How would ACORN's registrations effect the polling?

Nobody clamed ACORN is doing anything to the polls taken by pollsters and media.

The polling place is being manipulated by ACORN in the ways I already told you and the media is manipulating their polls.
I have the polls you named right in front of me and Obama has no clear lead.
So what are you even talking about.
You fail at propaganda!

Posted: 10/17/2008 2:10:07 PM EDT

[#21]

Quoted:

Nobody clamed ACORN is doing anything to the polls taken by pollsters and media.

It was the second post of the Missouri thread that led to this thread.

Posted: 10/17/2008 2:13:37 PM EDT

[#22]

Quoted:

Nobody clamed ACORN is doing anything to the polls taken by pollsters and media.

Quoted:
Polls weight their results according to percentages of democrats and republicans registered.

ACORN's false democrat registrations make it appear that more dems are registered than actually are.

Therefore, the polls are more heavily weighted toward dems, thus skewing results.

Quoted:

Even though you're a fucking troll, this isn't that hard.

When they do polls, they "adjust" the results to make sure their sample is adjusted to what they believe will be voter turn out.

One of the tools they use to make these adjustments is called "voter identification"

One of the sources of the adjustment for "voter identification" comes from information about the NUMBER of registered voters in an area, including the DELTA in such registrations over a period of time.

Ironically, the ACORN people's piles of fraudulent registrations result in the poll people over adjusting (in Dem favor) the voter identifications hashed against poll percentages.

This makes the polls all show Nobama way ahead of where he likely really is. The polls think there are more total democrats going to vote than there actually are.

This is designed to get the polls showing a bump lead, to dissuade the other side from bothering.

Plus the Acorn guys are now trying to actually cast VOTES using the fraudulent cards.

Ergo: Bad shit.

Now quit fucking trolling.

I refuted these posts and never heard back.

Posted: 10/17/2008 2:39:54 PM EDT

[#23]

Quoted:

Quoted:

Nobody clamed ACORN is doing anything to the polls taken by pollsters and media.

Quoted:
Polls weight their results according to percentages of democrats and republicans registered.

ACORN's false democrat registrations make it appear that more dems are registered than actually are.

Therefore, the polls are more heavily weighted toward dems, thus skewing results.

Quoted:

Even though you're a fucking troll, this isn't that hard.

When they do polls, they "adjust" the results to make sure their sample is adjusted to what they believe will be voter turn out.

One of the tools they use to make these adjustments is called "voter identification"

One of the sources of the adjustment for "voter identification" comes from information about the NUMBER of registered voters in an area, including the DELTA in such registrations over a period of time.

Ironically, the ACORN people's piles of fraudulent registrations result in the poll people over adjusting (in Dem favor) the voter identifications hashed against poll percentages.

This makes the polls all show Nobama way ahead of where he likely really is. The polls think there are more total democrats going to vote than there actually are.

This is designed to get the polls showing a bump lead, to dissuade the other side from bothering.

Plus the Acorn guys are now trying to actually cast VOTES using the fraudulent cards.

Ergo: Bad shit.

Now quit fucking trolling.

I refuted these posts and never heard back.

Again nobody is saying ACORN is doing anythng to polls taken by pollsters and the media.
These guy are speculating that fraudulent voter cards could create a bad sample but pollsters poll "likely voters" and newly registered voters are not likely voters.
ACORN's fraud with not take effect that fast.

For the 3rd time....

ACORN's job is to create fraudulent voter registrations that can be used in many ways.
You asked how ACORN is effecting the polling because you thought it was a weak argument you could manipulate to make a point.

You know what ACORN is doing and you know why.
You can muddy the waters but we know what we are dealing with and asking loaded questions is why people call you a troll.

Posted: 10/17/2008 2:43:10 PM EDT

[#24]

Quoted:

Quoted:

Nobody clamed ACORN is doing anything to the polls taken by pollsters and media.

Quoted:
Polls weight their results according to percentages of democrats and republicans registered.

ACORN's false democrat registrations make it appear that more dems are registered than actually are.

Therefore, the polls are more heavily weighted toward dems, thus skewing results.

Quoted:

Even though you're a fucking troll, this isn't that hard.

When they do polls, they "adjust" the results to make sure their sample is adjusted to what they believe will be voter turn out.

One of the tools they use to make these adjustments is called "voter identification"

One of the sources of the adjustment for "voter identification" comes from information about the NUMBER of registered voters in an area, including the DELTA in such registrations over a period of time.

Ironically, the ACORN people's piles of fraudulent registrations result in the poll people over adjusting (in Dem favor) the voter identifications hashed against poll percentages.

This makes the polls all show Nobama way ahead of where he likely really is. The polls think there are more total democrats going to vote than there actually are.

This is designed to get the polls showing a bump lead, to dissuade the other side from bothering.

Plus the Acorn guys are now trying to actually cast VOTES using the fraudulent cards.

Ergo: Bad shit.

Now quit fucking trolling.

I refuted these posts and never heard back.

Again nobody is saying ACORN is doing anythng to polls taken by pollsters and the media.
These guy are speculating that fraudulent voter cards could create a bad sample but pollsters poll "likely voters" and newly registered voters are not likely voters.
ACORN's fraud with not take effect that fast.

For the 3rd time....

ACORN's job is to create fraudulent voter registrations that can be used in many ways.
You asked how ACORN is effecting the polling because you thought it was a weak argument you could manipulate to make a point.

You know what ACORN is doing and you know why.
You can muddy the waters but we know what we are dealing with and asking loaded questions is why people call you a troll.

I think we're having a communication error. I'm not saying that anyone has accused ACORN of knowingly or purposely influencing the polls. What people are arguing and what I am attempting to refute is the notion that ACORN's mischief is having an effect on the polls.

Posted: 10/17/2008 2:48:20 PM EDT

[#25]

Posted: 10/18/2008 5:09:56 AM EDT

[#26]

Quoted:
I think we're having a communication error. I'm not saying that anyone has accused ACORN of knowingly or purposely influencing the polls. What people are arguing and what I am attempting to refute is the notion that ACORN's mischief is having an effect on the polls.

It has been spelled out for you, mathematically. Simply put, skewing the number of registered voters in one party skews the poll results.

Not that it really matters. Throwing off the polls is not nearly as big of a problem as voting fraud. It seems to me that you're trying to refute a pretty minor side issue to distract from the real issue at hand.

Posted: 10/18/2008 7:29:44 AM EDT

[#27]

Quoted:

Quoted:
I think we're having a communication error. I'm not saying that anyone has accused ACORN of knowingly or purposely influencing the polls. What people are arguing and what I am attempting to refute is the notion that ACORN's mischief is having an effect on the polls.

It has been spelled out for you, mathematically. Simply put, skewing the number of registered voters in one party skews the poll results.

Not that it really matters. Throwing off the polls is not nearly as big of a problem as voting fraud. It seems to me that you're trying to refute a pretty minor side issue to distract from the real issue at hand.

The scenario that he provided mathematically is not how polling works. I showed that. They use a fixed percentage for the parties.

Posted: 10/18/2008 7:56:31 AM EDT

[#28]

It is spam. They are spamming the election. Fill the registry with bunches of registrants, some obvious frauds, some not, and soon there will be too many to verify in a timely manner. Some will get through. Make people waste time looking for the obvious frauds and they will not scrutinize the less obvious ones as much.

Posted: 10/18/2008 8:00:32 AM EDT

[#29]

Quoted:
The question of this thread is posed to those who think ACORN is screwing up the polling. It still has yet to be proved to me how they are doing it.

Can you prove for me the Central Limit Theorem?

Posted: 10/18/2008 8:04:55 AM EDT

[#30]

Quoted:
Polls weight their results according to percentages of democrats and republicans registered.

ACORN's false democrat registrations make it appear that more dems are registered than actually are.

Therefore, the polls are more heavily weighted toward dems, thus skewing results.

Also, polling places in democratically controlled swing states can fill in the blank registrations as there is often no connection with the roll and the ballot. As long as the number of ballots does not exceed that of the rolls they may get away with it.

Posted: 10/18/2008 8:05:58 AM EDT

[#31]

Easy. The in some cases in many states in many counties will run the polling places. At the end of the night they take the folks that haven't voted and vote them for Obama. Nobody to question since you'll never get something confirming in the mail that you voted or who you voted for.

Not to mention some states don't require an ID to vote. You just show-up claim you are someone on their list (ACORN has a list of those they have registered) and go vote. Hell you can go from county to county or from polling station to polling station doing that and probably get away with doing it multiple times over.

Then there is the fact that you've flooded the system with so many bad registrations that it makes it more difficult to find you.

Posted: 10/18/2008 8:15:31 AM EDT

[#32]

Quoted:

Quoted:
upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/03/Trolling_drawing.jpg/800px-Trolling_drawing.jpg

By the way this is the best troll picture yet. You should get a prize.

Nah; second best.

The screen shot of you posting on DU after you lied about it here and said you'd never even been to DU was even better.

Posted: 10/18/2008 8:25:10 AM EDT

[#33]

Quoted:

Quoted:

Nobody clamed ACORN is doing anything to the polls taken by pollsters and media.

Quoted:
Polls weight their results according to percentages of democrats and republicans registered.

ACORN's false democrat registrations make it appear that more dems are registered than actually are.

Therefore, the polls are more heavily weighted toward dems, thus skewing results.

Quoted:

Even though you're a fucking troll, this isn't that hard.

When they do polls, they "adjust" the results to make sure their sample is adjusted to what they believe will be voter turn out.

One of the tools they use to make these adjustments is called "voter identification"

One of the sources of the adjustment for "voter identification" comes from information about the NUMBER of registered voters in an area, including the DELTA in such registrations over a period of time.

Ironically, the ACORN people's piles of fraudulent registrations result in the poll people over adjusting (in Dem favor) the voter identifications hashed against poll percentages.

This makes the polls all show Nobama way ahead of where he likely really is. The polls think there are more total democrats going to vote than there actually are.

This is designed to get the polls showing a bump lead, to dissuade the other side from bothering.

Plus the Acorn guys are now trying to actually cast VOTES using the fraudulent cards.

Ergo: Bad shit.

Now quit fucking trolling.

I refuted these posts and never heard back.

Again nobody is saying ACORN is doing anythng to polls taken by pollsters and the media.
These guy are speculating that fraudulent voter cards could create a bad sample but pollsters poll "likely voters" and newly registered voters are not likely voters.
ACORN's fraud with not take effect that fast.

For the 3rd time....

ACORN's job is to create fraudulent voter registrations that can be used in many ways.
You asked how ACORN is effecting the polling because you thought it was a weak argument you could manipulate to make a point.

You know what ACORN is doing and you know why.
You can muddy the waters but we know what we are dealing with and asking loaded questions is why people call you a troll.

I think we're having a communication error. I'm not saying that anyone has accused ACORN of knowingly or purposely influencing the polls. What people are arguing and what I am attempting to refute is the notion that ACORN's mischief is having an effect on the polls.

Damn right there is a communication error.
For the last time.

ACORN has a job,people like you have a job and the media have a job.

The Media's job is to misinform people and discourage the right.
ACORNs job is to rig the vote in all of the ways I have spelled out.
You,DU,the Daily Kos,MoveOn.org,bravenew PAC,ect all engage in sciops and help to generate talking points.

Now you know everbodie's role so stop trolling.

Posted: 10/18/2008 8:26:54 AM EDT

[#34]

Quoted:

Quoted:
Little Denver rich boy, Mummy & Daddy's money financed a trip to Germany to buy a new bimmer, Dan Teh TROLL

www.e90post.com/forums/showthread.php?t=23895

Predictable… had all the earmarks of a spoiled kid.

Amazing the inferences you guys make with absolutely no information.

So give us some concrete info... like are you or have you ever been a registered member over at Democratic Underground?

LOL yes. I registered there 4 years ago after I heard about it on arfcom. You'll notice that my registration here is March of '04 and there is May of '04.

I have posted twice there and not once since May '04. I forgot that I had even signed up and have no idea what my password is. I have not logged in ot that site in over 4 years.

Is that enough info?

Posted: 10/18/2008 8:31:01 AM EDT

[#35]

Quoted:

Quoted:
The question of this thread is posed to those who think ACORN is screwing up the polling. It still has yet to be proved to me how they are doing it.

Can you prove for me the Central Limit Theorem?

He's only a DU troll - cut him some slack on being educated

Posted: 10/18/2008 8:36:22 AM EDT

[#36]

Quoted:
I've already stated my case on why I believe that ACORN's fraudulent registrations are not going to translate to many fraudulent votes but that is a discussion for another thread.

This question is only for all of those of you who mention ACORN as the reason when they see McCain trailing in the battleground state polls.

I do not understand how the fraudulent registrations could possibly be effecting the polls. Are you guys picturing an ACORN call center that is set up and manned strictly for the purpose of answering "Obama" when pollsters call? I live in a battleground state and I have never received a polling call. The cost of setting up many phone lines and manning them for the sole purpose of skewing a poll by 1% would seem to me to be an outrageous thing to do.

Please help me understand

Because some state polls use the registration numbers as reported by the State Secretary of States office as a weight to 'calibrate' their results.

Posted: 10/18/2008 12:46:16 PM EDT

[#37]

I wonder if this will balance things out for you guys?

By Evan Halper and Michael Rothfeld, Los Angeles Times Staff Writers
October 18, 2008

SACRAMENTO -- Dozens of newly minted Republican voters say they were duped into joining the party by a GOP contractor with a trail of fraud complaints stretching across the country.

Voters contacted by The Times said they were tricked into switching parties while signing what they believed were petitions for tougher penalties against child molesters. Some said they were told that they had to become Republicans to sign the petition, contrary to California initiative law. Others had no idea their registration was being changed.

"I am not a Republican," insisted Karen Ashcraft, 47, a pet-clinic manager and former Democrat from Ventura who said she was duped by a signature gatherer into joining the GOP. "I certainly . . . won't sign anything in front of a grocery store ever again."

It is a bait-and-switch scheme familiar to election experts. The firm hired by the California Republican Party -- a small company called Young Political Majors, or YPM, which operates in several states -- has been accused of using the tactic across the country.

Election officials and lawmakers have launched investigations into the activities of YPM workers in Florida and Massachusetts. In Arizona, the firm was recently a defendant in a civil rights lawsuit. Prosecutors in Los Angeles and Ventura counties say they are investigating complaints about the company.

The firm, which a Republican Party spokesman said is paid $7 to $12 for each registration it secures, has denied any wrongdoing and says it has never been charged with a crime.

The 70,000 voters YPM has registered for the Republican Party this year will help combat the public perception that it is struggling amid Democratic gains nationally, give a boost to fundraising efforts and bolster member support for party leaders, political strategists from both parties say.

Those who were formerly Democrats may stop receiving phone calls and literature from that party, perhaps affecting its get-out-the-vote efforts. They also will be given only a Republican ballot in the next primary election if they do not switch their registration back before then.

Some also report having their registration status changed to absentee without their permission; if they show up at the polls without a ballot they may be unable to vote.

The Times randomly interviewed 46 of the hundreds of voters whose election records show they were recently re-registered as Republicans by YPM, and 37 of them -- more than 80% -- said that they were misled into making the change or that it was done without their knowledge.

Lydia Laws, a Palm Springs retiree, said she was angry to find recently that her registration had been switched from Democrat to Republican.

Laws said the YPM staffer who instructed her to identify herself on a petition as a Republican assured her that it was a formality, and that her registration would not be changed. Later, a card showed up in the mail saying she had joined the GOP.

"I said, 'No, no, no. That's not right,' " Laws said.

It all sounds familiar to Beverly Hill, a Democrat and the former election supervisor in Florida's Alachua County. About 200 voters -- mostly college students -- were unwittingly registered as Republicans there in 2004 by YPM staffers using the same tactic, Hill said.

"It is just incredible that this can keep happening election after election," she said.

YPM and Republican Party officials said they were surprised by the complaints. The officials said the signature gatherers wear shirts bearing the Republican symbol, an elephant -- a contention disputed by some of the voters interviewed.

Every person registered signs an affidavit confirming they voluntarily joined the GOP, party leaders said.

"It does the state party no good to register people in a party they don't want to be in," said Hector Barajas, communications director for the California Republican Party.

The document that voters thought was an initiative petition has no legal implications at all. YPM founder Mark Jacoby said the petition was clearly labeled as a "plebiscite," which does nothing more than show public support.

He also said that plainclothes investigators for Secretary of State Debra Bowen, a Democrat, have conducted multiple spot checks and told his firm it is doing nothing improper.

"Every time, they gave us a thumbs-up," Jacoby said. "People are not being tricked."

But Nicole Winger, a spokeswoman for the secretary of state's office, said the agency "does not give an OK or seal of approval to voter registration groups."

Two years ago, Orange County Dist. Atty. Tony Rackauckas charged 12 workers for a petitioning firm hired by the local Republican Party with fraudulently registering voters as Republican.

Democratic registration drives have also caught the attention of law enforcement officials.

The Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now, or ACORN, a national nonprofit that recruits mostly Democratic voters, is being investigated by the FBI for filing fake registrations in multiple states during the current presidential campaign.

In April, eight ACORN officials in St. Louis pleaded guilty to federal election fraud for submitting false registration cards in 2006.

In California, signature-gatherers are prohibited by law from misleading voters about what they are signing.

"You can't lie to someone to procure their signature," said Richard L. Hasen, a professor at Loyola Law School in Los Angeles who specializes in election law.

Civil rights activists recently filed a lawsuit in Arizona accusing YPM of deceiving residents to get signatures for a ballot measure that would have prohibited affirmative action by that state. The lawsuit was dropped after supporters of the measure pulled it from the ballot.

In Massachusetts, former YPM worker Angela McElroy testified at a legislative hearing in 2004that she had tricked voters into signing a ballot measure to ban gay marriage. She said she told voters they were signing in favor of a measure to allow alcoholic drinks to be sold in supermarkets.

YPM's Jacoby said McElroy was on loan to another signature-gathering company at the time the alleged deception took place.

Jose Aguilera, a 48-year-old math teacher from Ventura whose registration was recently changed from Democrat to Republican, said he signed the child-molester petition outside an Albertsons supermarket.

He said he was asked to sign a second document but not told that it would change his registration.

"Somehow the guy pulled out something else and I signed it," he said.

Ashcraft, the pet-clinic manager, said she knew that she could still vote in November for whichever presidential candidate she supports -- in her case, Democrat Barack Obama.

"I just don't like being lied to," she said.

Janett Lemaire, 54, said she told a signature-gatherer in the small Riverside County town of Desert Edge, "I've been a Democrat all my life and I want to stay that way."

But the man "said this has nothing to do with changing how you are registered," Lemaire said. "Then I get a notice in the mail saying I am a Republican. . . . I was very angry."

Posted: 10/18/2008 12:48:11 PM EDT

[#38]

Quoted:

Quoted:
The question of this thread is posed to those who think ACORN is screwing up the polling. It still has yet to be proved to me how they are doing it.

Can you prove for me the Central Limit Theorem?

I'm not a statistician, but wiki has the proof. It's below.

That said, what's the point? I showed from a polling data article that the number of Dems, Repubs, and Indys remains static so increased registrations should not effect the polls.

For a theorem of such fundamental importance to statistics and applied probability, the central limit theorem has a remarkably simple proof using characteristic functions. It is similar to the proof of a (weak) law of large numbers. For any random variable, Y, with zero mean and unit variance (var(Y) = 1), the characteristic function of Y is, by Taylor's theorem,

\varphi_Y(t) = 1 - {t^2 \over 2} + o(t^2), \quad t \rightarrow 0

where o (t2 ) is "little o notation" for some function of t that goes to zero more rapidly than t2. Letting Yi be (Xi − μ)/σ, the standardized value of Xi, it is easy to see that the standardized mean of the observations X1, X2, ..., Xn is

Z_n = \frac{n\overline{X}_n-n\mu}{\sigma\sqrt{n}} = \sum_{i=1}^n {Y_i \over \sqrt{n}}.

By simple properties of characteristic functions, the characteristic function of Zn is

\left[\varphi_Y\left({t \over \sqrt{n}}\right)\right]^n = \left[ 1 - {t^2 \over 2n} + o\left({t^2 \over n}\right) \right]^n \, \rightarrow \, e^{-t^2/2}, \quad n \rightarrow \infty.

But, this limit is just the characteristic function of a standard normal distribution, N(0,1), and the central limit theorem follows from the Lévy continuity theorem, which confirms that the convergence of characteristic functions implies convergence in distribution.

Posted: 10/18/2008 12:55:20 PM EDT

[#39]

The troll is back. I thought he vanished into obscurity.

Posted: 10/18/2008 2:27:21 PM EDT

[#40]

Quoted:

Quoted:
The question of this thread is posed to those who think ACORN is screwing up the polling. It still has yet to be proved to me how they are doing it.

Can you prove for me the Central Limit Theorem?

I'm not a statistician, but wiki has the proof. It's below.

That said, what's the point? I showed from a polling data article that the number of Dems, Repubs, and Indys remains static so increased registrations should not effect the polls.

For a theorem of such fundamental importance to statistics and applied probability, the central limit theorem has a remarkably simple proof using characteristic functions. It is similar to the proof of a (weak) law of large numbers. For any random variable, Y, with zero mean and unit variance (var(Y) = 1), the characteristic function of Y is, by Taylor's theorem,

\varphi_Y(t) = 1 - {t^2 \over 2} + o(t^2), \quad t \rightarrow 0

where o (t2 ) is "little o notation" for some function of t that goes to zero more rapidly than t2. Letting Yi be (Xi − μ)/σ, the standardized value of Xi, it is easy to see that the standardized mean of the observations X1, X2, ..., Xn is

Z_n = \frac{n\overline{X}_n-n\mu}{\sigma\sqrt{n}} = \sum_{i=1}^n {Y_i \over \sqrt{n}}.

By simple properties of characteristic functions, the characteristic function of Zn is

\left[\varphi_Y\left({t \over \sqrt{n}}\right)\right]^n = \left[ 1 - {t^2 \over 2n} + o\left({t^2 \over n}\right) \right]^n \, \rightarrow \, e^{-t^2/2}, \quad n \rightarrow \infty.

But, this limit is just the characteristic function of a standard normal distribution, N(0,1), and the central limit theorem follows from the Lévy continuity theorem, which confirms that the convergence of characteristic functions implies convergence in distribution.

You are ignorant of the concept of weighting the sample.

[ARCHIVED THREAD] - Explain to me how ACORN's registrations effecting the polling? (Page 3 of 3)

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