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Posted: 4/21/2021 12:55:04 AM EDT
[#1]
When supply catches up with demand!
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Posted: 4/21/2021 1:00:16 AM EDT
[#2]
It will never go back
Politics aside, companies are seeing they can get 80cpr instead of 30cpr for 9mm and 223, 25cpr instead of 5cpr for 22lr, and $1000 for a $400 gun. Why would the 3 companies making most of the ammo decide to forgo profits |
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Posted: 4/21/2021 1:18:57 AM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It will never go back Politics aside, companies are seeing they can get 80cpr instead of 30cpr for 9mm and 223, 25cpr instead of 5cpr for 22lr, and $1000 for a $400 gun. Why would the 3 companies making most of the ammo decide to forgo profits Basic Keynsian economics, prices are flexible going up but sticky coming down. Wholesale prices haven't changed nearly as much as retail. Retailers are making up for a lack of sales by increasing margins on ammo. The market is out of equilibrium at the moment with the shift in demand due to civil unrest and a lack of confidence in the government. By September prices will stabilize and store shelves will start to have product again. Plants are producing as fast as they can, but filling back orders for now, which at the moment is at least 3 months out. |
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Posted: 4/21/2021 1:26:13 AM EDT
[#4]
Quoted:. When will I be able to buy a box of 357 Magnum or some primers and powders to load my own? Is this just the Biden effect combined with rioting or, are there other factors at play I'm missing? Depending on how politics go, anywhere from 4 years to never. Look at how long things took after sandy hook. And that didn't involve covid, plant shutdown, etc.. |
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Posted: 4/21/2021 1:32:07 AM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It will never go back Politics aside, companies are seeing they can get 80cpr instead of 30cpr for 9mm and 223, 25cpr instead of 5cpr for 22lr, and $1000 for a $400 gun. Why would the 3 companies making most of the ammo decide to forgo profits I've seen the increase in ammo prices but other than than EE I still see glock 17s for their 550-600 price. |
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Posted: 4/21/2021 1:38:30 AM EDT
[#6]
I believe recent events have extended the drought even further.
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Posted: 4/21/2021 2:55:37 AM EDT
[#7]
I get supply and demand but, how many people need thousands of rounds of ammo?
Seriously, how many rounds does a normal hunter need per year? 20? 40? Now, for the rioter and civil unrest fear purchases, how much do they need? 2 boxes? 4 boxes? And yes, current pricing I think is mainly driven by retailers and to a certain extent wholesalers. With Remington, Norma, Fiocchi, etc., how long do you think it will take producing ammo 24 hours a day to catch up to demand? Sure metals prices are a bit higher so, it does cost more to produce but, not 100x. In terms of giving up profits, if rifle ammo stays at ~$3 or more per round with handgun ammo being $1~$2 per round, at some point, people will buy a reloading press and roll their own if they shoot more than a couple of boxes a year. I expect ammo to follow the toilet paper shortage scares. When was the last time you had trouble finding toilet paper? Ammo should follow a similar path. The question is when will it come back to reality with reasonable supplies at the normal points of sale? As for price gouging by end-user retailers, that is a different topic. When Atwoods (farm and ranch store) has ammo, it is priced like normal. Similar to Walmart with slight inflation on rimfire ammunition. This suggests to me that the wholesale price to retailers really hasn't changed much, if at all. |
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Posted: 4/21/2021 3:54:42 AM EDT
[#8]
How about never? Is never a good time for you?
Seriously...things will never go back to the salad days much less endless inventories or "low prices". |
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Posted: 4/21/2021 4:15:11 AM EDT
[#9]
Nope never.
Ya got vista holdings holding probably 87% of US production. Federal put out a flyer that May 1st they will be a price increase straight from the production line. Do the math and that means some ammo will see a 100% price increase by the time it hits retail. OH and primers are going up 25% right at the factory. The people that waited or are new to this are going to need to shut up and empty their pockets for anything firearms related or find a new hobby. No longer is shooting a recreational sport for the poor's. You can always tell who was not stocked, poor, or new to guns by these types of threads.  The Karen's and Nancy's need to hike up their skirts, adjust their bras and get over it. They good ole days were here and gone. Some missed them, some enjoyed them, some saw them right there in front of their faces and piled it on by buying cheap & stacking deep. I'll be forced to buy reloading supplies one day with the way I waste ammo thankfully that day is a few years off. Might as well just buy all the ammo you think you need now. As far as primers forget it. After they make ammo the surplus components hit the market so it's gonna be while for primers even at the 25% price increase. I've not seen a influx of wolf or other import primers like I did in 08 and 13 either. I'm still loading those wolf primers i bought then. They must imported a few shipping tankers of them as they were 300 for 30 K then. |
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Posted: 4/21/2021 4:37:19 AM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I get supply and demand but, how many people need thousands of rounds of ammo? Seriously, how many rounds does a normal hunter need per year? 20? 40? Now, for the rioter and civil unrest fear purchases, how much do they need? 2 boxes? 4 boxes? And yes, current pricing I think is mainly driven by retailers and to a certain extent wholesalers. With Remington, Norma, Fiocchi, etc., how long do you think it will take producing ammo 24 hours a day to catch up to demand? Sure metals prices are a bit higher so, it does cost more to produce but, not 100x. In terms of giving up profits, if rifle ammo stays at ~$3 or more per round with handgun ammo being $1~$2 per round, at some point, people will buy a reloading press and roll their own if they shoot more than a couple of boxes a year. I expect ammo to follow the toilet paper shortage scares. When was the last time you had trouble finding toilet paper? Ammo should follow a similar path. The question is when will it come back to reality with reasonable supplies at the normal points of sale? As for price gouging by end-user retailers, that is a different topic. When Atwoods (farm and ranch store) has ammo, it is priced like normal. Similar to Walmart with slight inflation on rimfire ammunition. This suggests to me that the wholesale price to retailers really hasn't changed much, if at all. The shortage will only end when demand decreases to levels that can be supplied. With people fearing a shortage buying a case instead of a box, that represents a 20x increase in demand. When everyone does it within a few weeks of each other, that's more like a 100x increase in demand, and will sell out every store shelf and warehouse in short order, becauses stores and manufacturers don't keep 20 to 100 weeks worth of stock on hand at a time. Even if ammo companies run triple shifts, it'll be a year or more before 3x production eats into the deficits caused by a 20x to 100x spike in demand. As for price? Once the scarcity hits, resellers get into the game, as with any commodity. If some foolish retailer wants to sell for $20 what a buyer can resell for $50 or $100 in a week or two, then the neckbearders will buy all they possibly can... and why wouldn't they? There are more of them than you, and reselling's just become their job, basically, so you've got to get up early to compete, or check back often and hope one day you get to the $20 retailer before they do. |
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Posted: 4/21/2021 7:26:21 AM EDT
[#11]
Not until everyone has too much ammo.
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Posted: 4/21/2021 7:54:35 AM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted: . . . Why would the 3 companies making most of the ammo decide to forgo profits IMPORTS. That’s why. Bonus Q.: what is the most sought after imported .22 ammunition, due to high quality and accuracy? Wolf. |
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Posted: 4/21/2021 7:58:01 AM EDT
[#13]
I keep thinking we have to be hiting a the top but then it just keeps on chugging. I have a suppressor in jail and cannot get my hands on any subs.
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Posted: 4/21/2021 8:00:42 AM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I get supply and demand but, how many people need thousands of rounds of ammo? Seriously, how many rounds does a normal hunter need per year? 20? 40? Now, for the rioter and civil unrest fear purchases, how much do they need? 2 boxes? 4 boxes? Didnt GD, and every other gun forum and YTber always say every patriot needs at least 1000 rounds per common caliber to start, then enough to train for X years, then enough to pass on to their grandkids? That is literally tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of rounds. And that is just in reserve, on top of replenishing thousands of rounds of ammo shot. I remember multi-day pistol and carbine courses literally saying folks should bring a case of rifle and pistol ammo. We did this to ourselves. Hunting rounds? Hunters maybe used to have just a box or two of ammo for each of their dozen(s) hunting rifles, but with past panics and especially this one, they probably decided they should have hundreds of rounds on hand. Add stimmy checks for millions of people plus talk of gun control in an commie administration and many of those people will spend the extra money on overpriced ammo |
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Posted: 4/21/2021 11:22:41 AM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It will never go back Politics aside, companies are seeing they can get 80cpr instead of 30cpr for 9mm and 223, 25cpr instead of 5cpr for 22lr, and $1000 for a $400 gun. Why would the 3 companies making most of the ammo decide to forgo profits That's what everyone says every time this happens. Guess what? Things calm down and prices fall as inventory builds and manufacturers need to move product. I personally have lived through 5 panics and each time everyone acted like it was the end of the world. Each time prices came back down to normal and a couple times hit historic lows counting for inflation. After the Y2K panic subsided there was an absolute glut of ammo on the market as vast stores of ammo was released simultaneously from South Africa, South America, Turkey, and the former Soviet Bloc. 5.56 was 10-15 cents everywhere without having to even look hard. 7.62 NATO was 15-20 cents thanks to vast imports from South Africa. 7.62x39 was as low as 6 cents cash and carry or 8 cents shipped. 7.62x54r was about the same. 9mm and 7.62x25 was almost sold at scrap prices. 8mm Mauser was sold at scrap prices! You could shoot the ammo and sell the brass for what the ammo had cost! I stacked it deep during this time as I realized it was the second wave of surplus not rivaled since after WW2 and before the GCA of 1968. Similar circumstances happened during the "Trump Slump" between 2017 and early 2020. Ammo and guns were readily available and ammo was at record lows accounting for inflation. Thanks to rebates and great sales I again stocked my ammo stash that had been depleted during the Obama years. Things always come back around. Gun and ammo demand is cyclical. Buy the dips and sell or shoot comfortably on the highs! |
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Posted: 4/21/2021 11:40:18 AM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That's what everyone says every time this happens. Guess what? Things calm down and prices fall as inventory builds and manufacturers need to move product. I personally have lived through 5 panics and each time everyone acted like it was the end of the world. Each time prices came back down to normal and a couple times hit historic lows counting for inflation. After the Y2K panic subsided there was an absolute glut of ammo on the market as vast stores of ammo was released simultaneously from South Africa, South America, Turkey, and the former Soviet Bloc. 5.56 was 10-15 cents everywhere without having to even look hard. 7.62 NATO was 15-20 cents thanks to vast imports from South Africa. 7.62x39 was as low as 6 cents cash and carry or 8 cents shipped. 7.62x54r was about the same. 9mm and 7.62x25 was almost sold at scrap prices. 8mm Mauser was sold at scrap prices! You could shoot the ammo and sell the brass for what the ammo had cost! I stacked it deep during this time as I realized it was the second wave of surplus not rivaled since after WW2 and before the GCA of 1968. Similar circumstances happened during the "Trump Slump" between 2017 and early 2020. Ammo and guns were readily available and ammo was at record lows accounting for inflation. Thanks to rebates and great sales I again stocked my ammo stash that had been depleted during the Obama years. Things always come back around. Gun and ammo demand is cyclical. Buy the dips and sell or shoot comfortably on the highs! Your words are comforting to me. On the other hand, a few older folks I know who have lived through the last 5 panics are not as optimistic |
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Posted: 4/21/2021 1:30:54 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I get supply and demand but, how many people need thousands of rounds of ammo? This is weapons-grade derp. How many rounds do you go through if you take your family shooting with .22s? It's pretty easy to break 1k in an afternoon. If you're working on pistol skills, you can do several hundred to 1k in an afternoon. Even doing long-range stuff, you can do a hundred or more in an afternoon. Multiply those numbers by, say, 10 outings per year, suddenly you're in the 10k-20k rounds per year category. I mean, if all you do is pull the rifle out once a year to hunt, you don't need much. But anyone that actually shoots as a hobby, you go through the ammo. |
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Posted: 4/21/2021 2:46:23 PM EDT
[#18]
I'm trying to think positive. A) Orangeman is out of office and not sending any mean tweets. B) Other than the Portland crazies, we aren't seeing regular rioting. C) I think there are going to be less vibrant youth shootings & D) Once the kung flu hysteria levels off, raw materials production will increase.
Wildcard = That Keebler Elf Fauci. |
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Posted: 4/21/2021 3:18:19 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Your words are comforting to me. On the other hand, a few older folks I know who have lived through the last 5 panics are not as optimistic That's probably because they're the guys that are always "not as optimistic" whenever it happens. Its really pretty simple. When people stop buying ammo for whatever stupid price a seller slaps on it, sellers will be sitting on inventory that isnt moving and shelves will become full again. When the shelves are full of ammo that no one will buy because its too expensive, the price will be lowered to make them want to buy it. The sellers wont restock inventory if there isn't enough profit in it for them, so the suppliers will lower their prices to the sellers as well and things will even out again. I know that's a bit of an over simplification, and there are other factors involved in pricing, but the biggest factor is the customer. |
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Posted: 4/21/2021 4:43:13 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Basic Keynsian economics, prices are flexible going up but sticky coming down. Wholesale prices haven't changed nearly as much as retail. Retailers are making up for a lack of sales by increasing margins on ammo. The market is out of equilibrium at the moment with the shift in demand due to civil unrest and a lack of confidence in the government. By September prices will stabilize and store shelves will start to have product again. Plants are producing as fast as they can, but filling back orders for now, which at the moment is at least 3 months out. You have an intersection of new people buying their first gun AND realizing that it could be their last gun if they don’t buy moar now and the .gov putting cash in their hands for impulse buys. That’s an unusual combination of factors. I don’t see why the new guy who was willing to buy 9mm at $1 per round and still couldn’t find any on the shelf in April at that price is suddenly going to think $1 per round is just too damn high and leave it sitting on the shelf in September. We have a new generation of gun owners who have EXPERIENCED ammo shortages and excessive pricing as their first foray into guns. You think they’re suddenly going to wake up one day and remember the good ole days of $8 boxes of 9mm that they didn’t ever experience and bank on those days returning? No way in heck. The only thing that’s going to stop this roll is for manufacturers to ramp up production in an effort to profit off of the as-yet-unsatisfied demand and then accidentally surpass it. Once they do, so long as it’s profitable, they’ll keep on producing at those levels rather than to self-limit sales just to inflate per unit profit margins. The market always works in these pendulum swings. There is no perfect static balance. If I’m selling x boxes at y price and selling them all, I’m going to try to sell x boxes at y+1 or x+1 boxes at y price until the market teaches me that I can’t. The intoxicating desire for “moar profit” perpetually drives both innovation and experimentation. |
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Posted: 4/21/2021 4:47:51 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I've seen the increase in ammo prices but other than than EE I still see glock 17s for their 550-600 price. Locally, stores are starting to restock guns but prices haven’t retracted at all. But guns aren’t ammo. Ammo is consumable. And cheaper on a per unit basis. People who can’t afford a new $500 gun can afford a new box of 9mm for $50. So the supply and demand pressure on guns and ammo isn’t really apples to apples. |
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Posted: 4/21/2021 4:55:25 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I get supply and demand but, how many people need thousands of rounds of ammo? Seriously, how many rounds does a normal hunter need per year? 20? 40? Now, for the rioter and civil unrest fear purchases, how much do they need? 2 boxes? 4 boxes? And yes, current pricing I think is mainly driven by retailers and to a certain extent wholesalers. With Remington, Norma, Fiocchi, etc., how long do you think it will take producing ammo 24 hours a day to catch up to demand? Sure metals prices are a bit higher so, it does cost more to produce but, not 100x. In terms of giving up profits, if rifle ammo stays at ~$3 or more per round with handgun ammo being $1~$2 per round, at some point, people will buy a reloading press and roll their own if they shoot more than a couple of boxes a year. I expect ammo to follow the toilet paper shortage scares. When was the last time you had trouble finding toilet paper? Ammo should follow a similar path. The question is when will it come back to reality with reasonable supplies at the normal points of sale? As for price gouging by end-user retailers, that is a different topic. When Atwoods (farm and ranch store) has ammo, it is priced like normal. Similar to Walmart with slight inflation on rimfire ammunition. This suggests to me that the wholesale price to retailers really hasn't changed much, if at all. People aren’t buying hunting rifles to go hunting. They’re buying hunting rifles because that was the only damn rifle they buy after the AR’s and AK’s were gone. And they are waking up to the idea of stockpiling ammo even though they are new to the scene. And they are first entering the arena as older and more mature adults with that more mature purchasing power rather than like I did as a broke-ass college kid. You literally have grandpa who remembers the race riots of the 60’s finally deciding that an AR15 and a Glock 19 might be a good thing to add to his Fudd arsenal. And he’s got the time and the spending power to camp out at Cabela’s on the mornings they restock the shelves and buy it all up as soon as the doors open. You can’t be dismissive of how impactful that shift is. |
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Posted: 4/21/2021 10:26:46 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It will never go back Politics aside, companies are seeing they can get 80cpr instead of 30cpr for 9mm and 223, 25cpr instead of 5cpr for 22lr, and $1000 for a $400 gun. Why would the 3 companies making most of the ammo decide to forgo profits Everyone said that during the Sandyhook panic. Then we had everything drop back to normal, then even lower. Remember $750 colt 6920s? Fiocchi 115gr 9mm for $160/thou, brass case 5.56 for $280/thou.... |
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Posted: 4/21/2021 10:40:15 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That's what everyone says every time this happens. Guess what? Things calm down and prices fall as inventory builds and manufacturers need to move product. I personally have lived through 5 panics and each time everyone acted like it was the end of the world. Each time prices came back down to normal and a couple times hit historic lows counting for inflation. After the Y2K panic subsided there was an absolute glut of ammo on the market as vast stores of ammo was released simultaneously from South Africa, South America, Turkey, and the former Soviet Bloc. 5.56 was 10-15 cents everywhere without having to even look hard. 7.62 NATO was 15-20 cents thanks to vast imports from South Africa. 7.62x39 was as low as 6 cents cash and carry or 8 cents shipped. 7.62x54r was about the same. 9mm and 7.62x25 was almost sold at scrap prices. 8mm Mauser was sold at scrap prices! You could shoot the ammo and sell the brass for what the ammo had cost! I stacked it deep during this time as I realized it was the second wave of surplus not rivaled since after WW2 and before the GCA of 1968. Similar circumstances happened during the "Trump Slump" between 2017 and early 2020. Ammo and guns were readily available and ammo was at record lows accounting for inflation. Thanks to rebates and great sales I again stocked my ammo stash that had been depleted during the Obama years. Things always come back around. Gun and ammo demand is cyclical. Buy the dips and sell or shoot comfortably on the highs! The post-2000 ammo deals were amazing. Port battle pack 762x51 for like 12c per round. 5.56 and 9 at amazing prices. |
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Posted: 4/22/2021 1:00:11 AM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It will never go back Politics aside, companies are seeing they can get 80cpr instead of 30cpr for 9mm and 223, 25cpr instead of 5cpr for 22lr, and $1000 for a $400 gun. Why would the 3 companies making most of the ammo decide to forgo profits It will eventually go back. I heard guys like you stating the same thing during 2008-2016. When the right time and the right President is back in office and there isn't panic stupid buying, the prices will stabilize again. It always has. It always will. When that will happen, no one knows. But it will happen. |
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Posted: 4/22/2021 1:34:48 AM EDT
[#26]
2087
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Posted: 4/22/2021 1:58:50 AM EDT
[#27]
Took 5 years for .22 LR to recover, and the recovered price, was nearly twice the price before that 5 year pause. This isn't going away any faster then that. It will take a massive influx of importation and large expansion in domestic production for this to go away. If that happened tomorrow; every bit of what that increase is, would be snatched up immediately - every day, for at least 2 years. And nobody is doing that supply growth right now.
This isn't going away for probably 5-10 years. And when it does, the new settled price for .223 will be at least 50 cents a round. |
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Posted: 4/22/2021 2:02:04 AM EDT
[#28]
Now that they've seen how much they can sell it for, what makes us think there's any incentive to sell it for less?
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Posted: 4/22/2021 9:12:17 AM EDT
[#29]
My local guy is saying his distributors are guessing one to two years.
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Posted: 4/22/2021 10:25:37 AM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted: IMPORTS. That’s why. Bonus Q.: what is the most sought after imported .22 ammunition, due to high quality and accuracy? Wolf. Imports? Hmm. An administration that wants to ban guns and throw favors to American labor unions is a safe bet to allow cheaper import ammunition and components to roll in and flood the market. |
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Posted: 4/22/2021 10:40:59 AM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That's what everyone says every time this happens. Guess what? Things calm down and prices fall as inventory builds and manufacturers need to move product. I personally have lived through 5 panics and each time everyone acted like it was the end of the world. Each time prices came back down to normal and a couple times hit historic lows counting for inflation. After the Y2K panic subsided there was an absolute glut of ammo on the market as vast stores of ammo was released simultaneously from South Africa, South America, Turkey, and the former Soviet Bloc. 5.56 was 10-15 cents everywhere without having to even look hard. 7.62 NATO was 15-20 cents thanks to vast imports from South Africa. 7.62x39 was as low as 6 cents cash and carry or 8 cents shipped. 7.62x54r was about the same. 9mm and 7.62x25 was almost sold at scrap prices. 8mm Mauser was sold at scrap prices! You could shoot the ammo and sell the brass for what the ammo had cost! I stacked it deep during this time as I realized it was the second wave of surplus not rivaled since after WW2 and before the GCA of 1968. Similar circumstances happened during the "Trump Slump" between 2017 and early 2020. Ammo and guns were readily available and ammo was at record lows accounting for inflation. Thanks to rebates and great sales I again stocked my ammo stash that had been depleted during the Obama years. Things always come back around. Gun and ammo demand is cyclical. Buy the dips and sell or shoot comfortably on the highs! Interesting. Another guy who thinks imported surplus is going to save us again. What’s been the predominant service round for the last 50 years? What is still the predominant service round? Pretending like 5.56 and 9mm prices are bound to go down because 8mm and 7.62x54 ammo used to be cheap as dirt is about as big a non sequitur as you can make. It takes a fairly large paradigm shift in the technology to create a surplus scenario in the small arms market. We don’t have one now and likely won’t for a while in terms of ammunition. And we have a administration willing to use EO’s to advance an anti gun agenda. Don’t hold your breath hoping for imports or surplus to end this problem. |
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Posted: 4/22/2021 10:51:58 AM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That's probably because they're the guys that are always "not as optimistic" whenever it happens. Its really pretty simple. When people stop buying ammo for whatever stupid price a seller slaps on it, sellers will be sitting on inventory that isnt moving and shelves will become full again. When the shelves are full of ammo that no one will buy because its too expensive, the price will be lowered to make them want to buy it. The sellers wont restock inventory if there isn't enough profit in it for them, so the suppliers will lower their prices to the sellers as well and things will even out again. I know that's a bit of an over simplification, and there are other factors involved in pricing, but the biggest factor is the customer. Which is the irony of your position... What has changed to bleed off the panic that CAUSED buyers to stockpile? This thread is literally a bunch of guys who want to stockpile ammo bitching about how they can’t stockpile ammo because too many people are stockpiling ammo. You guys are predicting that the other guy will stop stockpiling at which point you can again. So why in the heck would the other guy decide to stop stockpiling when you haven’t? This is the fallacy of “I’m the only rational actor in this situation”. Stockpiling is simply a thing that more people are doing. They woke up. To pretend that they’re all going to go back to sleep now is lunacy. |
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Posted: 4/22/2021 11:52:25 AM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Not until everyone has too much ammo. I think this. Look back at the mag shortages from a few years ago. Once everyone got their fill, mags came back and now everyone has so many that there is not even a shortage. Once everyone has what they need and stop buying from scalpers, everything will return back to normal unless some crazy legislation passes... |
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Posted: 4/22/2021 1:36:04 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The post-2000 ammo deals were amazing. Port battle pack 762x51 for like 12c per round. 5.56 and 9 at amazing prices. So where is the next round of x51 surplus coming from? From which countries is HoJo going to allow to offload millions of surplus 9mm and 5.56 rounds into the domestic civilian market? |
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Posted: 4/22/2021 1:44:40 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Took 5 years for .22 LR to recover, and the recovered price, was nearly twice the price before that 5 year pause. This isn't going away any faster then that. It will take a massive influx of importation and large expansion in domestic production for this to go away. If that happened tomorrow; every bit of what that increase is, would be snatched up immediately - every day, for at least 2 years. And nobody is doing that supply growth right now. This isn't going away for probably 5-10 years. And when it does, the new settled price for .223 will be at least 50 cents a round. This. I remember when gas was less than $2 per gallon in the early 2000’s. I remember when it got up over $4 per gallon. I remember people saying the price would eventually go “back”. It didn’t. It retracted from the crest, but it never goes back to the trough. That’s because consumer perception of value is altered. So while the idea of $3 gas was offensive to me in 2003. I sorta shrug it off in 2021 because I’m glad it isn’t $4 anymore. If you’ll buy 5.56 at 75 cents a round, you’ll buy it at 50 even though you used to be able to get it at 27. You’ll tell yourself you’re getting it for 33% off and better grab it at that price while you can. Recency bias is a bitch in that way. |
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Posted: 4/22/2021 1:48:23 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I think this. Look back at the mag shortages from a few years ago. Once everyone got their fill, mags came back and now everyone has so many that there is not even a shortage. Once everyone has what they need and stop buying from scalpers, everything will return back to normal unless some crazy legislation passes... How many mags do you burn up in a range session? How many mags have you actually worn out? How many rounds of ammo have you ever re-used? It’s apples to oranges to compare ammo to magazines. |
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Posted: 4/22/2021 1:59:40 PM EDT
[#37]
Maybe when some investors get smart and build a new factory, starting with primers only. Fuck all the big boys. If I had $5M and access to the materials needed to make my own components.... Cha Ching.
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Posted: 4/22/2021 10:29:19 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Which is the irony of your position... What has changed to bleed off the panic that CAUSED buyers to stockpile? This thread is literally a bunch of guys who want to stockpile ammo bitching about how they can’t stockpile ammo because too many people are stockpiling ammo. You guys are predicting that the other guy will stop stockpiling at which point you can again. So why in the heck would the other guy decide to stop stockpiling when you haven’t? This is the fallacy of “I’m the only rational actor in this situation”. Stockpiling is simply a thing that more people are doing. They woke up. To pretend that they’re all going to go back to sleep now is lunacy. Yeah, I'm not waiting to stockpile shit. I already have mine because I didn't wait for this shit to happen AGAIN... because this isn't the first time it has happened, this isn't the first time Ive had this conversation and you aren't the first guy to act like the "rational actors" don't know what they're talking about. So if you want to throw yourself around and act like it's the end of days for the shooting world, then go for it. It's actually the guys that act like this will never end that are the ones that make it last, because they're the ones that buy up whatever they can whenever they can for however much they have to... it's not the guys like me. |
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Posted: 4/23/2021 3:16:37 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted: So where is the next round of x51 surplus coming from? From which countries is HoJo going to allow to offload millions of surplus 9mm and 5.56 rounds into the domestic civilian market? There is no more surplus! We shot most of it and hoarded the rest! What I am saying is recognize buying opportunities when they come around. I saw those cheap prices and knew it was a once in a lifetime opportunity to stock up at stupid low prices. The 2017-2020 "Trump Slump" didn't rely on surplus, but was somewhat driven by imports as IMI and the Russian Factories accepted huge contracts from American importers and distributors anticipating a Hillary victory that never materialized. When orange man won they were all like "Oh Shit" and began dumping that ammo on the market trying to at least break even before the prices crashed. That's when we saw the big Midway sales of IMI 5.56 for 25 cents and 9mm dipped into the 18 cent delivered for brass cased or 14 cents for steel cased. If you didn't stockpile then I don't know what to tell you. It was the best time to stock up since the early 2000's! |
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Posted: 4/23/2021 8:49:55 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted: This. I remember when gas was less than $2 per gallon in the early 2000’s. I remember when it got up over $4 per gallon. I remember people saying the price would eventually go “back”. It didn’t. It retracted from the crest, but it never goes back to the trough. That’s because consumer perception of value is altered. So while the idea of $3 gas was offensive to me in 2003. I sorta shrug it off in 2021 because I’m glad it isn’t $4 anymore. If you’ll buy 5.56 at 75 cents a round, you’ll buy it at 50 even though you used to be able to get it at 27. You’ll tell yourself you’re getting it for 33% off and better grab it at that price while you can. Recency bias is a bitch in that way. Actually, gas prices here got back go where they had been before the jump to $4. That also points out the fallacy of "now that they know we'll pay it, why would they sell it for less". Competition is a bitch, and drives prices down. |
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Posted: 4/23/2021 8:53:23 PM EDT
[#41]
Quoted: I get supply and demand but, how many people need thousands of rounds of ammo I’m not sure you get supply and demand. Just like every other shortage it will stop when people stop lying stupid prices for things. |
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Posted: 4/24/2021 8:49:15 AM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I’m not sure you get supply and demand. Just like every other shortage it will stop when people stop lying stupid prices for things. Exactly, it's not about "need" so much as how long will people buy these quantities at these prices. Sure, there are lots of first time gun owners, but they aren't building ammo forts. If they were we'd be seeing a run on magazines as well. Imports probably won't save us this time, but the Remington plant coming back on line will make a big difference. |
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Posted: 4/24/2021 10:15:04 PM EDT
[#43]
I’m actually more worried about increases in material cost, inflation and the overall fuckery of the supply chain tremors that well be feeling for years... Given all the goings on, I’m going to be doubling my training efforts when I can.
So it’s not just collectors/new gun owners just driving up prices |
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Posted: 4/24/2021 10:32:54 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Nope never. Ya got vista holdings holding probably 87% of US production. Federal put out a flyer that May 1st they will be a price increase straight from the production line. Do the math and that means some ammo will see a 100% price increase by the time it hits retail. OH and primers are going up 25% right at the factory. The people that waited or are new to this are going to need to shut up and empty their pockets for anything firearms related or find a new hobby. No longer is shooting a recreational sport for the poor's. You can always tell who was not stocked, poor, or new to guns by these types of threads. https://i.ibb.co/BwSGppX/winchester-letter-jpg-1876802.jpg The Karen's and Nancy's need to hike up their skirts, adjust their bras and get over it. They good ole days were here and gone. Some missed them, some enjoyed them, some saw them right there in front of their faces and piled it on by buying cheap & stacking deep. I'll be forced to buy reloading supplies one day with the way I waste ammo thankfully that day is a few years off. Might as well just buy all the ammo you think you need now. As far as primers forget it. After they make ammo the surplus components hit the market so it's gonna be while for primers even at the 25% price increase. I've not seen a influx of wolf or other import primers like I did in 08 and 13 either. I'm still loading those wolf primers i bought then. They must imported a few shipping tankers of them as they were 300 for 30 K then. schadenfreude feels good man 
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Posted: 4/25/2021 12:49:52 AM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It will eventually go back. I heard guys like you stating the same thing during 2008-2016. When the right time and the right President is back in office and there isn't panic stupid buying, the prices will stabilize again. It always has. It always will. When that will happen, no one knows. But it will happen. If, we ever get honest elections again And who is to say, for those saying imports will drive prices down, that the administration wont ban imports? |
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Posted: 4/25/2021 12:54:03 AM EDT
[#46]
So wish I had stocked away (and had the means to do so) 40K rounds per caliber.
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Posted: 4/25/2021 5:59:39 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted: So wish I had stocked away (and had the means to do so) 40K rounds per caliber. 40k 9mm at 20cpr - $8k 40k 223 at 30cpr - $12k 40k 22lr at 5cpr - $2k For just the most common rounds you're at $22k. Seems like a lot, but that is only $550/mo for the 40 months of the Trump Slump in ammo prices (Nov'16 to Feb'20). If that's still outside of your budget, half is say $250/mo to have 60k rounds Fuck, should have been doing that myself. |
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Posted: 4/25/2021 6:03:29 PM EDT
[#48]
I have been through all these supply panics and issues in the last 30 years. This one IS different-
Unlike past panics touched off by a singular event ( fire at a powder factory, explosion in a primer plant, sandy hook, politics) This one has multiple factors contributing COVID fear initially, plant shutdowns due to COVID Civil unrest and criminal activities on a new intense scale New first time gun owners Old timers stocking up Potential political/ legal uncertainty Never has a past shortage been fueling by so many factors at once. I expect the panic / shortage to last a couple more years at least. In a recent visit to multiple gun shops in the area, some seem to be improving in regard to firearm inventory ( cannot sell guns without ammo Togo with them) |
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Posted: 4/25/2021 6:37:35 PM EDT
[#49]
Once Biden bans all imports it will never go down. Imports is what, 60-70% of our firearm and ammo market?
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Posted: 4/25/2021 7:39:43 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Once Biden bans all imports it will never go down. Imports is what, 60-70% of our firearm and ammo market? It odd to still find Tula 223 on the shelves, though now at 50cpr now, it was 35cpr a few months ago |
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