Posted: 4/19/2008 6:18:18 AM EDT
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The Wall Street Journal April 19, 2008; Page A10 Hoosier Showdown By TIM SWARENS http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120856403057028033.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries In 2000 and again in 2004, Darlene Boatman voted for George W. Bush. Over the past 40 years, she has strayed from the Republican presidential line only twice – for Jimmy Carter in 1976 and for Ross Perot in 1992. In a normal year, she would likely be supporting John McCain. But this year, as the state's May 6 presidential primary approaches, she is answering phones, canvassing the city, and passing out leaflets for Hillary Clinton. Even as Mrs. Clinton and Barack Obama lash out at each other, they are benefiting from a confluence of events that could allow Democrats to catch Republicans napping in surprising places this fall. One of those places may be Indiana. To be sure, this is a red state. It hasn't voted for a Democrat in a presidential race since 1964, when Republican Barry Goldwater lost in a landslide to Lyndon Johnson. Four years ago, George W. Bush collected nearly 60% of the Hoosier vote. In a typical year, Indiana is about as Republican as a Bush family reunion. But this is not a typical year, and the prolonged Democratic nomination fight might be a boon for the party's eventual candidate. The reason? With the seemingly interminable primary season, both candidates have been forced to build political infrastructure, sign up volunteers, and win converts among new voters in places the party would have otherwise ignored. Much of that work can be glimpsed through isolated anecdotes in national media reports. We follow the candidates as they pack thousands of supporters into high school gyms, tour factories, and slip into small-town diners. We watch Mr. Obama drop in at Nick's English Hut in Bloomington, a hangout popular with Indiana University students. We see Mrs. Clinton, surrounded by enthusiastic supporters, down a shot of whiskey and a beer at a bar in a Crown Point. The candidates' surrogates also offer snapshots for journalists on the trail. Especially when they upstage each other. In early April, former President Bill Clinton was to speak to Indiana University students, but before he began to talk, part of his audience melted away. The students slipped off to get free Dave Matthews tickets. They were being handed out down the street for a concert to support Mr. Obama. Anecdotes and snapshots aside, there are some broad trends at work. One of them is that the candidates' campaign blitzes across the state are swelling the voter registration rolls – they are up nearly 10% since 2006. There are about 400,000 new voters, and this despite a purge by the Indiana secretary of state's office of tens of thousands of outdated registrations. About half of these new voters registered this year. They got involved after it became clear that there would be a real Democratic horse race. David Plouffe, Mr. Obama's national campaign manager, gave me this prediction while at a stop in Indianapolis recently: "We have the organization and the financial ability to stretch the map [in November]." If Mr. Plouffe is being a little presumptuous, it may only be because there is more at play in Indiana than a little excitement surrounding the two Democratic candidates. The elephant in this living room is the state's economy, and the void on the right of a central narrative of how to turn things around. The state has lost some 98,000 manufacturing jobs since 2000. And many of the replacement jobs workers are finding pay less and offer less in health care and retirement benefits than their old factory jobs. Republicans can still perform well here (as President Bush proved in 2004). After all, it is probably unrealistic to expect to hold onto old-economy jobs. But someone has to explain to those who are looking for better paying work just how the new economy will be to their benefit. Otherwise, well, I'll let Ms. Boatman, who recently retired from a $10-an-hour job, give the version that will stick with voters: "Our jobs are gone." To win, Mr. McCain needs to fill in the void that follows such a summation of the state's economy. The anxiety is real. Subprime woes can be found everywhere, but Indiana's home-foreclosure and personal-bankruptcy rates are consistently among the highest in the nation. And inflation – represented in the rise of food, gasoline and other essentials – bleeds consumers. November is still a long way off. And it is still a long shot for either Mrs. Clinton or Mr. Obama to win this state. Their liberal voting records in the Senate may be too much to overcome. Indiana tends to elect Democrats who are more conservative than the Nancy Pelosi, John Kerry wing of the party. Mr. Obama's comments about bitter small-town residents who "cling" to God and guns are likely to linger with voters into the fall campaign. Indiana is still dominated by its small-town culture – Indianapolis, the state's capital and the country's 13th largest city, even has a small-town feel to it – where God and guns are nothing to be bitter about. And it won't help Mr. Obama that he specifically mentioned Indiana in his controversial remarks. But over the past two years, voters have surprised Indiana incumbents in both parties. In 2006, Republicans took a pounding in congressional races. They had controlled seven of the state's nine seats in the House. After the Democratic wave, they held four. Last year, Indianapolis's Democratic Mayor Bart Peterson, once a shoo-in to win a third term, took the brunt of voter anger. He was ousted from office by voters incensed over sharp increases in local property and income taxes. Indiana Republican Party Chairman Murray Clark admits that the state has a "grumpy electorate." Whoever emerges as the Democratic Party's candidate will want to capitalize on that, and on all the time and money he or she has put into the state. To win, Mr. McCain will have to do more than just the one visit he has made to Indiana so far this year. Mr. Swarens is opinions editor for the Indianapolis Star. |