Posted: 2/28/2013 10:09:21 AM EDT
| I seen a report on the net last week saying Kentucky had the largest increase in gun sales over the last few months. Right off hand I dont even remember where I read it at but I think it said we had something like a 53% increase and that was just reported by NICS background checks and didnt include the sales to a CCDW holders that didnt have a background check run with the sale! Anybody else see that report and rememner where it was? Anybody seen any reports on CCDW applications in Kentucky? I know they are way up, but havent seen or heard how much of an increase we have had in the State. |
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There is so much misinformation about gun sales out there right now there is no telling exactly what is going on. You have MSN running headlines like "Fewer gun buyers in mass shooting states" because the mass shooting states only saw a 30% jump in gun sales compared to other states that saw a 40% jump.
Kentucky also runs a monthly NICS check on every CCDW holder which shows up in the NICS report. People that don't understand that write news stories about how many guns are sold in Kentucky based off that number. They started doing this around July 2006 I believe and back then it jumped the monthly numbers by around 100,000. That would be a ballpark number on permits. I have no idea what the number of CCDW holders would be now. I know more people talking about getting a permit now than before but I don't know how many are following through. |
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Using the data below I came up with 175,658 CCDW holders in Kentucky at the end of 2012. Kentucky number for Nov, Dec, and January are as follows. November was inline with previous months. Remove the monthly CCDW holder NICS checks and you get the numbers below. 219,921 ----260,207 ----238,510 44,263 -----84,549 ------62,852 That gives Kentucky a 90% increase in gun sales in December 2012 and a 42% increase over November sales in January. If anyone is interested here is how I came up with the 175k CCDW holders. Back in 2006 Kentucky's NICS numbers were around 20,000 monthly. As they started doing the CCDW NICS check the number jumped to around 120,00 monthly. After that they would jump 10,000, 20,000, 30,000 in a month. There is no way that all those are gun purchases. You don't double the number of guns sold in a month. I am very sure that as old CCDW permits expired and new permits were issued those people got added to the NICS check. In fact the ATF's site on NICS Brady Exemption states "Concealed weapons permits issued on or after July 12, 2006 qualify." If everyone with a CCDW immediately got a NICS check there would be no reason for the July 2006 date. Plus the monthly numbers steadily increased month after month, year after year. That was until August 2010 when there was a drop of 40,000 in the monthly NICS checks. I would guess that is some paperwork cleanup, removal of old or expired CCDWs, or something along those lines. From 2005 through 2012, Tennessee went from 253,450 annually to 524,122 annually. That is including the December panic. That is a 107% increase over those 7 years. Applying the same increase to Kentucky. In 2005 we were at 232,589 annually, which would give us 481,459 gun purchases in 2012. The NICS check shows 2,589,358 annually. Take out the estimated gun sales gives us 2,107,899. Divide that by the 12 months that gives us 175,658 CCDW holders in 2012. Here is a link to the monthly NICS check data by state going back to 1998. http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/20130205_1998_2013_state_monthly_totals.pdf |
| I cant remember what sight it was that showed it, but they had a color coded map of the Country showing NICS checks over the last three months and they said based on the average monthly checks Kentucky was up something like 53-54% over normal and had us as the highest number of gun sales based on that information. CCDW applications must be up quit a bit, they say its taking up to 4 weeks just to get the training certificate back. |
