[ARCHIVED THREAD] - The WA HTF Economic Barometer (Page 1 of 7)
Posted: 1/11/2009 8:56:28 AM EDT
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I just opened a letter from the county Health Department, that states they are discontinuing their recreational water program due to budget restrictions. (These are the people who I've dealt with for the past decade, with monthly water samples, inspections & permits) Saves me about $4k a year.... if the state doesn't come up with a "fix". Better than nothin'  |
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Honestly, here is my opinion:
The people that are willing to work 6 days a week 12 hours a day, come home tired and sacrifice some personal and family time will be OK in the long run. Atleast that is what I am telling myself. The people that have to take 2 days off a week, only will work 35-40 hours a week and bitch about not making enough money are the ones that will be expendable. Complain about long hours and short breaks, whine about the company not giving them enough, means the company may give you a nice long vacation in the long run. This is the 1st time in my career that I feel totally confident in my job security, I am great at what I do and I actually have had some fairly good offers from outside companies the last few days to leave my company and join theirs. |
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I think the Kenyan will create a large stimulus package that
on the outside will look good and we will rebound. Temporarily. The runanway train of psuedo stability followed by bursting bubbles will continue. At some point there will be no fixing it. That's where I think Ron Paul was correct. The only thing that can be done now is to break the trend of borrowing/creating money and get on a sound monetary policy actually backed by something. Call me a Paulbot if you must but the guy was spot on IMHO. |
The Fed's Bubble TroublePeter Schiff Jan 10, 2009 A few weeks ago when the Fed announced a strategy designed to bring down long-term interest and home mortgage rates through unlimited Treasury bond purchases, government debt staged a spectacular rally. To the unschooled market observer, the spike may be difficult to understand. After all, why would the value of Treasury bonds rise while their underlying credit quality is deteriorating faster than Bernie Madoff's social schedule? The move is actually a perfect illustration of the tried and true Wall Street strategy of "buy the rumor and sell the fact". If it is well known that the Fed will be a big purchaser of Treasuries, those buying now will be positioned to unload their holdings when the buying spree begins. If the Fed pays higher prices in the future, traders can earn riskless speculative profits. If the traders lever up their positions, as many are likely doing, even small profits can turn unto huge windfalls. The downside of course, is that all of the demand for Treasuries is artificial. Treasuries are now in the hands of speculators looking to sell, not investors looking to hold. These players are analogous to the mid-decade condo-flippers who flocked to new developments for quick profits. They did not intend to occupy their properties, but rather flip them to future buyers. Once these properties came back on the market, condo prices collapsed, as developers were forced to compete for new sales with their former customers. This is precisely what will happen with Treasuries. Just as the U.S. government issues mountains of new debt to finance the multi-trillion annual deficits planned by the Obama Administration, speculative holders of existing debt will be offering their bonds for sale as well. In order to prevent a complete collapse in the bond prices the Fed will be forced to significantly increase its buying. However, since the only way the Fed can buy bonds is by printing money, the more bonds they buy the more inflation they will create. As inflation diminishes the investment value of low-yielding Treasuries, such a scenario will kick off a downward spiral. But the more active the Fed becomes in their quest to prop up bond prices, the bigger the incentive to hit the Fed's bid. The result will be that all Treasuries sold will be purchased by the Fed. But with the resulting frenzy in the Treasury market, and with inflation kicking into high gear, we can expect that demand for other debt classes that the Fed is not backstopping, such as corporate, municipal and agency debt, to fall through the floor, pushing up interest rates across the board. In order to "save" the economy from these high rates the Fed will then have to expand its purchases to include all forms of debt. If that happens, run-away inflation will quickly turn into hyper-inflation, and our currency will be worthless and our economy left in ruins. To avoid this nightmare scenario, the Fed should pull out of the bond market before it's too late and let prices fall to where real buyers, those willing to hold to maturity, re-enter the market. Given how high inflation will likely be by the time this happens, my guess is that long-term Treasury yields will have to rise well into the double digits to clear the market. The grim reality of course is that when the real estate bubble burst the Government was able to "bail-out" private parties. However, when the bond market bubble bursts, it will be the U.S. Government itself that will be in need of the mother of all bailouts. If U.S. taxpayers or foreign creditors are unwilling or unable to pony up, and if the nightmare hyper-inflation scenario is to be avoided, default will be the only option. If misery really does love company, Bernie Madoff's clients might finally find some comfort. |
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The Fed's Bubble TroublePeter Schiff
Jan 10, 2009 A few weeks ago when the Fed announced a strategy designed to bring down long-term interest and home mortgage rates through unlimited Treasury bond purchases, government debt staged a spectacular rally. To the unschooled market observer, the spike may be difficult to understand. After all, why would the value of Treasury bonds rise while their underlying credit quality is deteriorating faster than Bernie Madoff's social schedule? The move is actually a perfect illustration of the tried and true Wall Street strategy of "buy the rumor and sell the fact".
If it is well known that theFed will be a big purchaser of Treasuries, those buying now will be positioned to unload their holdings when the buying spree begins. If the Fed pays higher prices in the future, traders can earn riskless speculative profits. If the traders lever up their positions, as many are likely doing, even small profits can turn unto huge windfalls.
The downside of course, is that all of the demand for Treasuries is artificial. Treasuries are now in the hands of speculators looking to sell, not investors looking to hold. These players are analogous to the mid-decade condo-flippers who flocked to new developments for quick profits. They did not intend to occupy their properties, but rather flip them to future buyers. Once these properties came back on the market, condo prices collapsed, as developers were forced to compete for new sales with their former customers.
This is precisely what will happen with Treasuries. Just as the U.S. government issues mountains of new debt to finance the multi-trillion annual deficits planned by the Obama Administration, speculative holders of existing debt will be offering their bonds for sale as well. In order to prevent a complete collapse in the bond prices the Fed will be forced to significantly increase its buying.
However, since the only way the Fed can buy bonds is by printing money, the more bonds they buy the more inflation they will create. As inflation diminishes the investment value of low-yielding Treasuries, such a scenario will kick off a downward spiral. But the more active the Fed becomes in their quest to prop up bond prices, the bigger the incentive to hit the Fed's bid. The result will be that all Treasuries sold will be purchased by the Fed. But with the resulting frenzy in the Treasury market, and with inflation kicking into high gear, we can expect that demand for other debt classes that the Fed is not backstopping, such as corporate, municipal and agency debt, to fall through the floor, pushing up interest rates across the board.
In order to "save" the economy from these high rates the Fed will then have to expand its purchases to include all forms of debt. If that happens, run-away inflation will quickly turn into hyper-inflation, and our currency will be worthless and our economy left in ruins.
To avoid this nightmare scenario, the Fed should pull out of the bond market before it's too late and let prices fall to where real buyers, those willing to hold to maturity, re-enter the market. Given how high inflation will likely be by the time this happens, my guess is that long-term Treasury yields will have to rise well into the double digits to clear the market.
The grim reality of course is that when the real estate bubble burst the Government was able to "bail-out" private parties. However, when the bond market bubble bursts, it will be the U.S. Government itself that will be in need of the mother of all bailouts. If U.S. taxpayers or foreign creditors are unwilling or unable to pony up, and if the nightmare hyper-inflation scenario is to be avoided, default will be the only option. If misery really does love company, Bernie Madoff's clients might finally find some comfort.
This is damned beautiful. Lots of opportunity coming. |
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The Fed's Bubble Trouble[div]Peter SchiffJan 10, 2009 Peter Schiff is pretty smart but I truly hope he is wrong. I have read a lot of what he has said lately and it is very depressing. He talks about this country being in worse shape than the great depression in the very near future. |
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Quoted: The Fed's Bubble Trouble[div]Peter SchiffJan 10, 2009 Peter Schiff is pretty smart but I truly hope he is wrong. I have read a lot of what he has said lately and it is very depressing. He talks about this country being in worse shape than the great depression in the very near future. |
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Honestly, here is my opinion: The people that are willing to work 6 days a week 12 hours a day, come home tired and sacrifice some personal and family time will be OK in the long run. Atleast that is what I am telling myself. The people that have to take 2 days off a week, only will work 35-40 hours a week and bitch about not making enough money are the ones that will be expendable. Complain about long hours and short breaks, whine about the company not giving them enough, means the company may give you a nice long vacation in the long run. This is the 1st time in my career that I feel totally confident in my job security, I am great at what I do and I actually have had some fairly good offers from outside companies the last few days to leave my company and join theirs. And to think that just a few short weeks ago you were on the verge of bankruptcy and financial ruin. 
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All I can say is  !
I hope bigscrun's right about those of us who work our asses off with no time off, bein' okay in the long run. That's what I'm tryin' ta do. Those of you who've hung out with me can attest to this.
Hard to say what direction things will take. I think we're at a point where an upturn may be in the near future, but it's a fragile balance that could be influenced by a myriad of outside or unplanned factors, such as attacks by our enemies or natural disasters. |
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I think the Kenyan will create a large stimulus package that on the outside will look good and we will rebound. Temporarily. The runanway train of psuedo stability followed by bursting bubbles will continue. At some point there will be no fixing it. That's where I think Ron Paul was correct. The only thing that can be done now is to break the trend of borrowing/creating money and get on a sound monetary policy actually backed by something. Call me a Paulbot if you must but the guy was spot on IMHO. I'm with you on this. He's a bit on the cagey side but the guy was/is right IMO. Bailouts and stimulus packages are what got got us here in the first place. The land of milk and honey is turning into the land of regulation and financial suicide. |
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Agreed. I'd be tickled shitless if he was wrong. But so far, he's one of the few who've been extremely accurate.
Peter Schiff is pretty smart but I truly hope he is wrong. I have read a lot of what he has said lately and it is very depressing. He talks about this country being in worse shape than the great depression in the very near future. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Guess we'll see. |
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Quoted: Quoted: I think the Kenyan will create a large stimulus package that on the outside will look good and we will rebound. Temporarily. The runanway train of psuedo stability followed by bursting bubbles will continue. At some point there will be no fixing it. That's where I think Ron Paul was correct. The only thing that can be done now is to break the trend of borrowing/creating money and get on a sound monetary policy actually backed by something. Call me a Paulbot if you must but the guy was spot on IMHO. I'm with you on this. He's a bit on the cagey side but the guy was/is right IMO. Bailouts and stimulus packages are what got got us here in the first place. The land of milk and honey is turning into the land of regulation and financial suicide. Schiff & Paul both saw what others wouldn't. |
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I think the Kenyan will create a large stimulus package that on the outside will look good and we will rebound. Temporarily. The runanway train of psuedo stability followed by bursting bubbles will continue. At some point there will be no fixing it. That's where I think Ron Paul was correct. The only thing that can be done now is to break the trend of borrowing/creating money and get on a sound monetary policy actually backed by something. Call me a Paulbot if you must but the guy was spot on IMHO. I'm with you on this. He's a bit on the cagey side but the guy was/is right IMO. Bailouts and stimulus packages are what got got us here in the first place. The land of milk and honey is turning into the land of regulation and financial suicide. Schiff & Paul both saw what others wouldn't.  SF I bet is getting hit hard these days. I'm going to go out on a limb here and say we have 3 years under the chosen one to have our individual houses in order before the bell tolls. We will see temporary recovery with the printing presses smoking. Make the best of it.
I'm pessimistic by nature but I'm trying real hard to find some optimism in all of this. New Deal II is coming and when it does expect to see the individual and collective rights of Americans go out the window in the process. History repeats itself yet again. |
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Honestly, here is my opinion: The people that are willing to work 6 days a week 12 hours a day, come home tired and sacrifice some personal and family time will be OK in the long run. Atleast that is what I am telling myself. I count myself lucky that I can work as much O.T. as I want. It is a huge help. If you already do... please keep buying Georgia Pacific paper products....Thank God people have to wipe their asses. 
EDIT for typing while wiping my ass... |
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Quoted: I'm afraid you may be very right.I'm pessimistic by nature but I'm trying real hard to find some optimism in all of this. New Deal II is coming and when it does expect to see the individual and collective rights of Americans go out the window in the process. History repeats itself yet again. Here's another guy who has chosen not to drink the koolaid; Paul Van Eeden Wish he'd been wrong too. |
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I think the Kenyan will create a large stimulus package that on the outside will look good and we will rebound. Temporarily. The runanway train of psuedo stability followed by bursting bubbles will continue. At some point there will be no fixing it. That's where I think Ron Paul was correct. The only thing that can be done now is to break the trend of borrowing/creating money and get on a sound monetary policy actually backed by something. Call me a Paulbot if you must but the guy was spot on IMHO. I'm with you on this. He's a bit on the cagey side but the guy was/is right IMO. Bailouts and stimulus packages are what got got us here in the first place. The land of milk and honey is turning into the land of regulation and financial suicide. Schiff & Paul both saw what others wouldn't. Vanguard, Prudential, Fidelity, etc all offer inflation-protected mutual-funds that would do very well in a hyperinflationary economic environment. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) would also be a safe bet. Precious metals, Gold ETF's, precious and industrial metals mining stocks would also do well as metals prices would skyrocket due to a tanking dollar. Would also tank the markets...so shorting the markets by going long with inverse index funds (RYAIX) and bear-funds (BEARX) would also make some pretty decent money. I remember when I was a kid...my grandfather lectured me on the days of the Great Depression and how bad it had gotten in Germany. Hyperinflation rates of over 50% per month...same phenomenon was experienced in countries like Argentina about ten years ago or so. Still, if one got defensive and took advantage of various opportunities...one could come out the other side in pretty decent shape. |
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Quoted: Sure, there will be and are opportunities for those cagey & diverse enough to still have the tools when the right time comes along. But the winners merely offset the losers.... no real "wealth" can be created out of thin air, (unless you're .gov. Vanguard, Prudential, Fidelity, etc all offer inflation-protected mutual-funds that would do very well in a hyperinflationary economic environment. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) would also be a safe bet. Precious metals, Gold ETF's, precious and industrial metals mining stocks would also do well as metals prices would skyrocket due to a tanking dollar. Would also tank the markets...so shorting the markets by going long with inverse index funds (RYAIX) and bear-funds (BEARX) would also make some pretty decent money. I remember when I was a kid...my grandfather lectured me on the days of the Great Depression and how bad it had gotten in Germany. Hyperinflation rates of over 50% per month...same phenomenon was experienced in countries like Argentina about ten years ago or so. Still, if one got defensive and took advantage of various opportunities...one could come out the other side in pretty decent shape. ), only moved in to different hands. That's not a recovery, that's a shift of wealth.... same problem that got us here.But it's all about timing, right? Should I sell my home & biz now, and then buy it back when it's worth 30% less? Or will my dollars fall by 30% in the same time? And how many more Madoffs are left to be discovered in those opportunities above? Maybe wealth protection will become more important than wealth creation to Americans over the next few years. If that's the case, opportunities will become more rare, and reserved for the wealthy few. No argument mind you. I agree with much of your post. But there will be less players in the game IMO. |
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Unless there is a biological event we will be okay.
They will "reset" what ever they need and we have to enough resources to deal with the rest of the world. There are enough indicators for me to feel like there is another World War type event ready to happen. And this would definitely prime the economic pump. |
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Personally...and this is just a hunch more than anything else.
[tinfoil hat] This sub-prime mortgage default crisis was nothing more than a surreptitiously manufactured event orchestrated by people like Sen Barney Frank and his cronies in the Senate Ways and Means Committee and Fannie/Freddie. It was created so as to pressure the American people to vote their pocketbook instead of their conscience...something that B. Hussein Obama could take advantage of. Notice the timing of it all with respect to the national elections...the whole thing simply seems entirely too fortuitous so as to be regarded as a "spontaneous" event. Once the dominoes (mortgage defaults) started falling and housing prices stopped appreciating...many people saw that they weren't going to make large profits in 2-3 years) from their homes and allowed themselves to fall into foreclosure en mass. Then it all began to snowball...spreading into many other facets of financials. This was a phenomenon that 'ol Barney and his pals didn't foresee... Now look where we are. [/tinfoil hat] Of course...this is just my little opinion...and I realize that being one of the little people means that my opinion doesn't matter. |
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Personally...and this is just a hunch more than anything else. [tinfoil hat] This sub-prime mortgage default crisis was nothing more than a surreptitiously manufactured event orchestrated by people like Sen Barney Frank and his cronies in the Senate Ways and Means Committee and Fannie/Freddie. It was created so as to pressure the American people to vote their pocketbook instead of their conscience...something that B. Hussein Obama could take advantage of. Notice the timing of it all with respect to the national elections...the whole thing simply seems entirely too fortuitous so as to be regarded as a "spontaneous" event. Once the dominoes (mortgage defaults) started falling and housing prices stopped appreciating...many people saw that they weren't going to make large profits in 2-3 years) from their homes and allowed themselves to fall into foreclosure en mass. Then it all began to snowball...spreading into many other facets of financials. This was a phenomenon that 'ol Barney and his pals didn't foresee... Now look where we are. [/tinfoil hat] Of course...this is just my little opinion...and I realize that being one of the little people means that my opinion doesn't matter. Sound theory.........except.............Barney Franke can't even tie his own shoes............... But it could've been orchestrated by other, less retarded folks................
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Personally...and this is just a hunch more than anything else. [tinfoil hat] This sub-prime mortgage default crisis was nothing more than a surreptitiously manufactured event orchestrated by people like Sen Barney Frank and his cronies in the Senate Ways and Means Committee and Fannie/Freddie. It was created so as to pressure the American people to vote their pocketbook instead of their conscience...something that B. Hussein Obama could take advantage of. Notice the timing of it all with respect to the national elections...the whole thing simply seems entirely too fortuitous so as to be regarded as a "spontaneous" event. Once the dominoes (mortgage defaults) started falling and housing prices stopped appreciating...many people saw that they weren't going to make large profits in 2-3 years) from their homes and allowed themselves to fall into foreclosure en mass. Then it all began to snowball...spreading into many other facets of financials. This was a phenomenon that 'ol Barney and his pals didn't foresee... Now look where we are. [/tinfoil hat] Of course...this is just my little opinion...and I realize that being one of the little people means that my opinion doesn't matter. Sound theory.........except.............Barney Franke can't even tie his own shoes............... But it could've been orchestrated by other, less retarded folks................
Agreed...Barney can't tie his own shoes. I am sure that there are plenty of very capable people in his sphere of influence that can. |
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Personally...and this is just a hunch more than anything else. [tinfoil hat] This sub-prime mortgage default crisis was nothing more than a surreptitiously manufactured event orchestrated by people like Sen Barney Frank and his cronies in the Senate Ways and Means Committee and Fannie/Freddie. It was created so as to pressure the American people to vote their pocketbook instead of their conscience...something that B. Hussein Obama could take advantage of. Notice the timing of it all with respect to the national elections...the whole thing simply seems entirely too fortuitous so as to be regarded as a "spontaneous" event. Once the dominoes (mortgage defaults) started falling and housing prices stopped appreciating...many people saw that they weren't going to make large profits in 2-3 years) from their homes and allowed themselves to fall into foreclosure en mass. Then it all began to snowball...spreading into many other facets of financials. This was a phenomenon that 'ol Barney and his pals didn't foresee... Now look where we are. [/tinfoil hat] Of course...this is just my little opinion...and I realize that being one of the little people means that my opinion doesn't matter. Sound theory.........except.............Barney Franke can't even tie his own shoes............... But it could've been orchestrated by other, less retarded folks................
Agreed...Barney can't tie his own shoes. I am sure that there are plenty of very capable people in his sphere of influence that can. Absoluely. I'm convinced there was some wierdness goin' on. |
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I found this link the other day and it helped explain our "situation" very easily... crash course
It was also interesting to see I.O.U.S.A broadcast on CNN this weekend. I hope I'm wrong, but in my opinion, the economy is only going to get worse. There may continue to be small rallies in the market, or market reactions to stimulus BS, but I don't see any real "drivers" of recovery on the horizon. What bothers me more is that if you aren't online looking for the news, you don't get all the facts and you don't know what the fuck is coming. I've tried to wake a few of my friends and family up during the holidays, and it's almost no use. They think .Gov is going to make it all better and pull a rabbit out of a hat and fix everything. |
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Quoted: I found this link the other day and it helped explain our "situation" very easily... crash course It was also interesting to see I.O.U.S.A broadcast on CNN this weekend. I hope I'm wrong, but in my opinion, the economy is only going to get worse. There may continue to be small rallies in the market, or market reactions to stimulus BS, but I don't see any real "drivers" of recovery on the horizon. What bothers me more is that if you aren't online looking for the news, you don't get all the facts and you don't know what the fuck is coming. I've tried to wake a few of my friends and family up during the holidays, and it's almost no use. They think .Gov is going to make it all better and pull a rabbit out of a hat and fix everything. Great post. Similar viewpoint and experiences here. (didn't know about CNN allowing truth on their network though. Gotta link?) |
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Quoted: I think you're hitting on to something solid. But the subprime mess, 401k bubble, shift to services instead of REAL products.... were orchestrated and implemented before his time. (If he's more than a pawn, I'll puke.)Personally...and this is just a hunch more than anything else. [tinfoil hat] This sub-prime mortgage default crisis was nothing more than a surreptitiously manufactured event orchestrated by people like Sen Barney Frank and his cronies in the Senate Ways and Means Committee and Fannie/Freddie. It was created so as to pressure the American people to vote their pocketbook instead of their conscience...something that B. Hussein Obama could take advantage of. Notice the timing of it all with respect to the national elections...the whole thing simply seems entirely too fortuitous so as to be regarded as a "spontaneous" event. Once the dominoes (mortgage defaults) started falling and housing prices stopped appreciating...many people saw that they weren't going to make large profits in 2-3 years) from their homes and allowed themselves to fall into foreclosure en mass. Then it all began to snowball...spreading into many other facets of financials. This was a phenomenon that 'ol Barney and his pals didn't foresee... Now look where we are. [/tinfoil hat] Of course...this is just my little opinion...and I realize that being one of the little people means that my opinion doesn't matter. But only, "one of the dominoes", as you put very succinctly. JMHO too |
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IOUSA aired Saturday at 2 eastern and Sunday at 3 eastern. I recorded the program. CNN also had a moderator panel that included Peter G Peterson, Bill Bradely, and David Walker discussing certain parts of the film.
This should have been put on air prior to the election. It also bears rebroadcasting a few more times. I think the only reason this was allowed on air was because the topic fits the message .Gov wants the public to hear right now. (Things aren't good, and you must sacrifice) NOT that .Gov is going to do a damned thing about the countries real problems. All you have to do is read the actual bail out bill and see all the extra crap loaded into the bill at our expense. |
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Honestly, here is my opinion: The people that are willing to work 6 days a week 12 hours a day, come home tired and sacrifice some personal and family time will be OK in the long run. Atleast that is what I am telling myself. The people that have to take 2 days off a week, only will work 35-40 hours a week and bitch about not making enough money are the ones that will be expendable. Complain about long hours and short breaks, whine about the company not giving them enough, means the company may give you a nice long vacation in the long run. This is the 1st time in my career that I feel totally confident in my job security, I am great at what I do and I actually have had some fairly good offers from outside companies the last few days to leave my company and join theirs. And to think that just a few short weeks ago you were on the verge of bankruptcy and financial ruin.
you get a double 
The comment was a backhanded try at sarcasm due to the snow. |
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Quoted: IOUSA is a quality piece of work. (30 Minute Version)IOUSA aired Saturday at 2 eastern and Sunday at 3 eastern. I recorded the program. CNN also had a moderator panel that included Peter G Peterson, Bill Bradely, and David Walker discussing certain parts of the film. This should have been put on air prior to the election. It also bears rebroadcasting a few more times. I think the only reason this was allowed on air was because the topic fits the message .Gov wants the public to hear right now. (Things aren't good, and you must sacrifice) NOT that .Gov is going to do a damned thing about the countries real problems. All you have to do is read the actual bail out bill and see all the extra crap loaded into the bill at our expense. I didn't see it so much as meant to be influential on the election, but more as a piece of historical advice, from those who don't have anything to gain from an election. |
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My READ:
- This country is driven by retail sales - Large retailers are full of shit and are lying anytime their mouth is open - Retail sales are WAY off, even with massive discounts (no profit) - First quarter profit reports will be ugly - In April we will begin to understand how totally screwed we are - The job losses we've experienced are just a precursor - Hang on to your money, your job and your ass |
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Quoted: My READ: - This country is driven by retail sales - Large retailers are full of shit and are lying anytime their mouth is open - Retail sales are WAY off, even with massive discounts (no profit) - First quarter profit reports will be ugly - In April we will begin to understand how totally screwed we are - The job losses we've experienced are just a precursor - Hang on to your money, your job and your ass Many share your view.... ie, "We just witnessed an Xmas firesale", a 'going out of business' sale. (Samsonite Luggage will close its' Centralia location on Jan 18, according to a job application on my desk now.) |
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In Baron's from 1/5/09 cover story:
"A flight to safety has created a bubble in Treasury bonds. Better values now lie in high-yielding munis and junk." Scary stuff. My company's got about 1 year of funding. If we can't parter some IP, we're done––cause you can't raise cash with a stock offering in this market. I voted "we're screwed" for a variety of reasons. |
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I don't know why Ron Paul gets such a bad wrap from arfcommers. Everything I've heard him say or predict has been spot on.
If the government doesn't start acting responsibly with OUR money, and with printing more and creating inflation, we are all kinds of fucked, folks. |
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I found this link the other day and it helped explain our "situation" very easily... crash course It was also interesting to see I.O.U.S.A broadcast on CNN this weekend. I hope I'm wrong, but in my opinion, the economy is only going to get worse. There may continue to be small rallies in the market, or market reactions to stimulus BS, but I don't see any real "drivers" of recovery on the horizon. What bothers me more is that if you aren't online looking for the news, you don't get all the facts and you don't know what the fuck is coming. I've tried to wake a few of my friends and family up during the holidays, and it's almost no use. They think .Gov is going to make it all better and pull a rabbit out of a hat and fix everything. I have a bone to pick with this guy. When he goes into peak oil, and starts discussing oil discoveries compared to production, he totally and completely glosses over that we are artificially limiting production due to environmental and political considerations. There are places with billions of barrels of oil that are off limits due to environmental scaremongering and NIMBYism, but I see no mention of this in his presentation. I am totally tracking with his presentation on fuzzy numbers and everything else I have seen to date, but I think people need to take his presentation on oil with artificially limited production figures firmly in mind. |
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I found this link the other day and it helped explain our "situation" very easily... crash course It was also interesting to see I.O.U.S.A broadcast on CNN this weekend. I hope I'm wrong, but in my opinion, the economy is only going to get worse. There may continue to be small rallies in the market, or market reactions to stimulus BS, but I don't see any real "drivers" of recovery on the horizon. What bothers me more is that if you aren't online looking for the news, you don't get all the facts and you don't know what the fuck is coming. I've tried to wake a few of my friends and family up during the holidays, and it's almost no use. They think .Gov is going to make it all better and pull a rabbit out of a hat and fix everything. I have a bone to pick with this guy. When he goes into peak oil, and starts discussing oil discoveries compared to production, he totally and completely glosses over that we are artificially limiting production due to environmental and political considerations. There are places with billions of barrels of oil that are off limits due to environmental scaremongering and NIMBYism, but I see no mention of this in his presentation. I am totally tracking with his presentation on fuzzy numbers and everything else I have seen to date, but I think people need to take his presentation on oil with artificially limited production figures firmly in mind. I agree with you on this...All you have to do is go look at all the oil shale formations in the Grand Canyon! Lots of oil in that area. As far as "where is the rally point"? The only rally I'm looking for is a Dow Rally. I've seen/heard discussions regarding a short term rally after the next stimulus (suckers rally) - then possibilities to see Dow 5800, Dow 3000 and Dow 700. Which I hope is all Bullshit. I really have no idea where to put my investments. I'm currently in AAA munis, real estate, carefully selected dividend paying stocks, t-bills, cash, gold, silver, and various arfcom type commodities.  (In order of $ commitment)
I am seriously concerned about the economy and the public's reaction to future events. All one can do is get squared away and try to be in front of the "issues". |
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Quoted: Same here. Agreed completely.I am seriously concerned about the economy and the public's reaction to future events. All one can do is get squared away and try to be in front of the "issues". I did some job interviews (replacing a part time position) this morning, and one of the applicants was from another store closing up at the Centralia Factory Outlet Mall. (PZ-something?, not the Samsonite store I mentioned earlier in this thread) The quality of applicants were all higher than in recent years, which can be interpreted as an indicator of our local labor market. Anyhow, whatever you do, don't watch Fox Business channel. Their hair is definitely on fire today!  |
