[ARCHIVED THREAD] - Planning for Retirement (Page 1 of 2)
Posted: 9/17/2008 5:52:03 PM EDT
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Ok, Here is a topic that may or may not impact some of here who frequent the WA HTF. Strat, this one is for you. I appreciate your intelect but do not always agree. So in light of what is happening in the financial markets this week, I have a couple of questions I would like to ask of you. Run for cover or step up, it's your choice. How many of you young ARFcoms have a job that allows you to plan for your future. I mean being able to really support your family and plan for retirement...someday ? How many of you regular posters actually have a job ? Are not any of you rifle toters wondering if your local bank will survive the next week and will the "hundreds" of dollars you have there...still be there next week ? All of the gun training that your hero Gumby can provide will not save you from financial ruin. So, let's see... I want to buy a car, but I have no muny ! My wife and I would love to buy a small house and begin to raise our family in an area that has a school district which would help our children thrive. The new interest rate on my student loan has got me suicidal, I'll never be able to pay it back. I just went on strike and now my company says that China and India are a cheaper place to assemble these aircraft. These are just a few senarios that are real time issues. Hey, I'm old, I own the place I live outright...no mortgage...I got a lot of investments that are now worth 10 cents on the dollar. For you guys just starting out and thinking about buying a new car, and perhaps your first house, andraising a family, My best wishes are with you. |
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I think you have hit the nail on the head LCR1. I work for a good company with a decent retirement plan. Yet I do not feel this is the time to start buying into stock options (some would say it is). I save a lot on the side and am ready to start turning money into gold, before the I think it is inevitable that we will hit a severe financial crisis in the next two years. I don’t have a house, but got good rates (at the last second) on my car loan and student loan. Though single, the thought of having a family seems out of the question at this time. I just feel things are about to get really really bad and it is time to invest in things that will help me the impending shit storm. |
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Now is most definitely the time to buy stock. They are low and will eventually go higher. Put as much money as you can in a 401k or IRA. It's a cycle of the market and economy. It happened around 9/11 if you remember and we rebounded for a while. Now is just a tough time. But it will get better. FDIC deposits are insured up to $100,000, I believe. So unless you have over that in a savings account you should be ok. |
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Timely topic LCR!. Over the last 3 days I have lost 12% of my 401K. I can't retire right now because if I did I would lose medical, and it is at least 600 a month for health coverage. Upshot is I gotta keep working untill I get that 12% back + more. I will probably work untill I die at this rate. 
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Good thread, I've been thinking about this a lot lately, I guess age 40 does that to ya.. I have three cars, all paid for, 6-8 months income in CD's, couple of Ira accounts and 401K's, and plenty of equity in my house, no matter how much the market may decline, I'm a looooong way from being upside down. I'd actually like to find more real estate to invest in, but it's damm hard trying to find something that pencil's out to my satisfaction. |
If another dozen banks go under, will the FDIC have the funds to cover them? Even if the government steps in to cover them, it will just devalue the dollar even more. The market might be a good idea, but buying in now might be a bit premature? Gold is a good idea, but priced a bit high now because of the oil price spike this year. So what do we do? Put money into foreign currency? I'm as lost as everyone else I guess. |
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Great thread!!! My house payment is my only monthly payment. My cars, truck and motorcycle are all paid for. I also own a commercial property which is for sale. I hope to buy a couple of condo's when I sell it. If it doesn't sell, I'm going to open a packing/shipping store since it's right on the Canadian border. I currently put 15% of my gross pay into my Thrift Savings Account and manage an IRA for myself and one for my wife from old jobs. We both also have retirement plans where we work. I have also been buying stocks for the last few days, it's a good time. Tomorrow I'm closing out our WAMU savings account and putting it in a local bank. I retire in 9 years and hope to be debt free when I do. |
| Self employeed so I will probably never get to retire... Last several years, I put all the money I had or didn't have and built several retal apartment buildings. Running red right now but hoping it will work out. Our primary residence is 2 years away from being paid off but wish I hadn't bought the Saleen... |
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Well I'm still young, but I have a good foot up because my parents are paying for my college! So far, I have a bit of money in CD's at a local bank with good rates, and own my own truck. I'm hoping to start a roth IRA here shortly... but thats assuming I find a job in ellensburg. |
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Andy the Banker here with some advice. Let's see if I can clear up some confusion. As far as retirement is concerned, I'll be just fine. We are actually building a home and shop, as lumber prices are down, as will be mortgage rates in the near future. If you have a choice between buying a home or a car, buy the home. Preferably a stick built home as opposed to a mfg home. Stick built homes appreciate in value over mfg homes on land in almost every case I've seen in 16 years. Cars seldom appreciate, unless you resurrect a junker 'stang. If you have a question about your bank, send me an IM and I'll give you my honest opinion over the phone. Most banks in our area are doing just fine, especially the community banks. WAMU will be sold for pennies on the dollar, as the risk associated with their sub prime doesn't make it a pallatable deal. Their deposit side is doing fine, so your FDIC insurance should be fine if you have under $100,000. Don't buy their stock, wasted money. As far as FDIC insurance is concerned, the biggest fallacy being spread by the media is that you can only get $100,000 ($100M) of FDIC insurance. Any sane persona with family can easily get a buttload of FDIC insurance. Here is how is works. Husband's account, $100M Wife's account, $100M Husband payable on death (POD) to wife, $100M, Wife's account POD to husband, $100M Husband POD to Mom & Dad, $200M Wife POD to mom & dad, $200M Husband POD to 3 kids, $300M Wife POD to 3 kids, $300M Total available to husband & wife with living parents and 3 kids = $1,400,000, and husband & wife maintain control of funds. Add in a trust or three, and you can get another $400M or more. As far as the health of the FDIC, don't worry about them failing. They are just fine, and the number of bank failures year to date is 11. There are another 19 or so on their watch list. Most of these banks are small community or regional banks with assets under $1 billion. Banks under $1 billion are reasonably small, and the banks who failed were doing some pretty stupid stuff, or got caught with too much of a concentration in development loans. Indy Mac was one of these banks and was essentially taken down by one man, Chuck Schumer, D-NY. What a fuckhead. Wrote a letter to the FDIC about the health of Indy Mac, then thought so much of it that he leaked it to the press. Press got wind of it, whipped up a panick, caused a literal run on the bank, and they folded. Had the run not occurred, they would have weathered the storm, as they were reasonably well capitalized and had sufficient liquidity before thr run. That man needs to be drawn and quartered. Similar scenario took down Bear Stearns, but it was a few brokerage houses shorting their stock, along with a few folk at MSNBC who led to their downfall. Fucktards. I'm a little better informed than most armchair economists, so if you have specific questions, fire away. My biggest piece of advice is to stop listening the the media. Don't let them bully you into a bunker mentality. They report the worst of the worst, and nothing of any good occurring. I swear that half of the econmic issues were are experiencig would be less so if thee would just stop hyping it. I am also pragmatic, as the ditch behind the house is 750 feet long, 3-4 feet deep, 6 feet wide, and has numerous twists and turns, so it will make a great fighting position. The house will have a built in gun/safe room, complete with it's own hidden exit. The crawlspaece in the house is 4 feet tall, and the vents make great firing ports and cover all parts of the property. Add in a few firearms not lost in a boating accident, 10,000 loaded rounds, and compnents for another 15,000 rounds, and I should be good. Just be sure to call before you come over.  |
So, ODT, How long are you going to have to apologize for having know-nothing assholes for friends? Not angry at you, but I thought you said you were going to take care of this shit? 
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If you dont own a home right now you can bet things will become more affordable in the future. I was talking to a custom home builder/friend of mine and he said that spec developers all over the state are srinking and drying up or moving to other states. In the long term this means nothing but for now I think things will get more interesting before they get boring. At least people are paying attention to this now the only way to hurt this country is in the pocket book and it usually forges for change. |
+1, the majority of his posts include a personal attack, veiled or unveiled. |
Brother Bob were you bin? Hope your not mad about the good cop bad cop gig. You set it up right. When you going to stop by.  Stop out.
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Although my savings has taken a couple hits in the last months and isn't what I want it to be, I'm not worried. Everything is paid off except mortgage and student loans. If worst came to worst, the .gov could use my FDIC insurance to pay off my student loan. If ppl start losing thier houses, I have plenty of family in the area. We would all move into one house, pay it off the next month, and be fine. In the meantime, it's silly to work at lowering my LTV ratio, for several reasons. Right now, I can use that money elsewhere to make more than the home loan interest costs me. It's the concept of leverage. Not that I don't plan to pay off my loan early, I'm just not gonna prepay until I can pay the whole thing off. My location is not a great one in terms of defenses against ninjas, pirates, looting mobs, but my stores of food, gas, etc. are fine, and I'm confident I can rustle up more than enough volunteers to "man the walls". As far as retirement, I'm right on schedule. I'd love to be ahead of schedule, but I'm young, and have lotsa time left for my money to work for me. Actually, just this past Saturday, I became fully vested in my 401k. The company has matched an additional 20% of what I've put in. It's like a 4 digit bonus, and I didn't even hafta perform extra well at work.
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I said I'd get out of the way soon if I couldn't fix it. And now have. Do what you gotta. So, back on topic. According to CNN tonight, (because I'm too cheap to upgrade to a package that includes Fox News), Suze Oreman, Dave Ramsey, and almost every commentator that got a slot tonight, says that 'this' is a buying opportunity... right now! . That might be right.... Hell, even Donald Trump chimed in on Larry King Live-ish, and said this is an "opportunity" to buy a house, (as if he remembers being in a position to buy just one home at a time).Ben Stein even showed up and said a few things that made sense.... interesting times indeed. Buehler? Though, all were quoting eachothers profuseness about how to spend your way in to prosperity. Has anyone here ever, in your entire life, witnessed a talking head telling you to hold on to your money? (the stuff you went to work for every day to achieve and hopefully keep for tomorrow) $700 Billion disappeared from investors portfolios today alone. That speaks a volume or two in my opinion. Spend? <cough> "Investing" is popular spin, ain't it?! Folks are willingly sold down the river in the name of entitlement for the American Dream. Including, Retirement, Escalades, Jet Skis, Health Care, Shiny Rims, Endless .gov programs, The latest Cell Phone, The latest Album, Better Highways, Sports Teams in Coliseums, Mass transit and College Educations..... Two words on that; We CAN'T afford it, and haven't. (okay, six) You want a retirement strategy? Quit spending it, and quit gambling your wealth by speculating in blue sky economy's & promises. Financial independence comes from financial responsibility. pfft |
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Still on track to retire debt free at 60 in 20 years. Railroad retirement and Boeing pensions would provide us with about $75k/year in today's dollars. Add 401k monies on top of that. Lately I have been thinking about taking a position in the union local and using the extra money to fund a Roth IRA, too. Surprisingly, our 401k investments have not taken too much of a beating through all of this. I am down 6% and the wife's is off only 2%. 20 years is a long time to recover. |
Hypothetically, if you had a few million in cash right now, and you want to at the very least protect it, but hopefully make it grow (safely), where would you put it? |
Lurking mostly and hiding form you know who  .... One day soon!
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Well, I reached a point where I was no longer physically capable of performing the tasks I was trained for, so I took my retirement out and started up in business. My Pollyanna attitude toward the fluctuations in the economy kept me going definitely too long. Several off years ("Oh, it'll turn around."), having great credit ("This will see us through til spring."), combined with my never-give-up attitude, landed us in the $hitter. Folded up the tent a year ago this week. Took a 50% loss on the equipment we sold. Still owe about $20K in fuel bills @ 1000% interest. (Remember that good credit?) So, now, at 55, I have become a wage slave with no retirement plans or options. I suppose I could look at my gunroom as my retirement, but, it wouldn't last long. I suspect I'll be working at something, somewhere until the room grows dark and I hear that choir...But, hey, it's been a helluva ride and I ain't done til I say I'm done. I' still breathing and I'm surrounded by good people. And, I might add, Mommity. And I'll work at least as long as she does. Hell, retirement is frequently fatal anyway, from what I see.
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Believe it or not, I'd buy a few quality stocks that pay a fair dividend, maybe buy a small mobile home park or apartment building, structure a few CD's correctly for FDIC insurance at WAMU for 12 months (they're paying 5% right now) and maybe a buy a few homes for rentals. The one thing that these all have in common is that they are income producing, regardless of the value of the underlying asset. If you buy correctly, you will see value appreciation of the assets picked up as well, in both the short and long term. Had my securities licenses, 6, 63, 65, insurance,......etc. Time to make rational choices on stock purchases. Don't just buy something because it fell. Don't develop concentrations in your portfolio, by making sure you diversify your investment. Do your homework and research stocks. Start with industries you're are familiar with first, for me it would be banks. You should know what makes a healthy business if you are in that industry. Then once you develop a strategy for investigating a stock, apply it to others. Motleyfool.com would be a great place for a novice to start, and there are many other great resources on the net. Always back up your research though. Certainly interesting times right now. It is a time to be conservative for sure. Again, if you have a question about your banks, send me an IM with your phone number, I'll look them up, and call you back to let you know what I have found. Bank of America is strong, Key is fine, WAMU sucks, Sterling so-so. |
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I'm no guru and probably have no business posting in this thread...but what the hell...right? Arfcom business&investing forum has some pretty good resources. Posters like Waldo, ar-jedi, and Migradog seem to be very knowledgeable on the subject and genuinely interested in seeing others succeed with investing. I have been reading the books they have suggested, in addition to the extensive reading I have already done. Been investing since 1996. If you're really all that pessimistic about the economy, you can short stocks. You can't short stocks with a retirement account like a 401K or an IRA because you must have a margin-account, but you can short stocks indirectly by picking up some no-load mutual "bear-funds" like the Prudent Bear Fund (ticker BEARX) or in inverse index funds like Rydex-Arktos. A "bear-fund" is a mutual fund that specializes in shorting stocks, and many have been doing pretty well now for the past 18 months or so. I basically put all my 401K and IRA $ into these two and played ranges while paying close attention to the moving averages and setting 8% trailing stop losses and did okay. Remember that you can make money on a stock whether it goes up or down in price, it just depends which way you're set up with it and whether it goes the way you've bet. Disclosure: I have quite a bit of $ in BEARX at the moment. I also picked up 10K in WAMU shares a few days ago, (PPS bid at $1.85) just for the hell of it...(hey, no guts, no glory...  ) In my twisted little opinion, it makes absolutely no sense to me that their shares should be priced at around two bucks while their book value is at $13.57/share... This whole thing with WAMU just looks to me like a fucked-up case of irrational exuberance in the opposite direction...I mean, why would anyone be particularly worried about 50 billion in toxic debt when they have 143 billion in deposits? I think I'd definitely be worried if the numbers were reversed though... Even if they do get sold, there is no way that WAMU is going to allow itself to get sold off at a discount of 80% off of thier fucking book value....no way. So to me it looks like an ultimate bottom-fishing stock as the risk/reward value seems pretty good, albeit genuinely risky. Such is life...one day I'm a genius, the next day I'm an idiot...time will tell one day or the other. Guess I'll just wait and see.  |
Those deposits are not their's. Deposits on a bank's balance sheet are liabilities, not assets, and their bad loans are bad assets. WAMU will be sold for pennies on the dollar, because those deposits will evaporate, and they are already experiencing some run off. You will see the pace of the run-off increase over the next week, and many of those deposits you take comfort in will be gone. They are an attractive part of the deal at WAMU, no doubt, BUT, they are tempered by the huge pool of bad loans. |
You're the expert on the financials...I am just looking at it from a speculative/balance sheet perspective with money I can afford to lose. WAMU's cash value (per share) is $7.23 alone...they're not going to sell their cash for pennies on the dollar now are they? With an entrance point of $1.85 pps leaves me with at least a three-bagger right there. Gross profit (ttm) is 19.92 billion total cash on hand is around 12.29 billion...doesn't even begin to include the value of their bank properties and such. Like I said earlier, this is just a highly speculative/risky bottom-fishing thing for me using a little cash in an online trading account I have...nothing more. I wouldn't risk any of my 401K or IRA money on a stock like WAMU and I wouldn't recommend that anyone to do that either...Ill just wait and see what happens one way or the other. |
Fair enough, no worries bro. As they say, no good deed goes unpunished, and you most certianly got the short end of the stick on this one. For that, I am truly sorry. Anyways, this whole thread is based off the chicken-little "the sky is falling!" over reaction of a guy who can't sell enough fudd guns and can't bring himself to get into EBR's because he despises them and those who enjoy them. What is happening right now is called a "correction". When the market is over inflated based off of speculation, it can only maintain so long. That is why I advised my wife to pull her money out last year. Had I met her sooner, I would have told her sooner. I personally don't like investing my money in a market that depends almost entirely on how people "feel" about the economy at any given time. As it were, given the numbers and the amount of drop in the stock market over the last week, while the numbers are relitivly high, compared to the overall market, the percentage isn't "that" much. Compared to the '39 drop or even the '87 drop, where the large numbers represtented a much larger percentage of the overall market compared to this time. Sure, large banks are hitting serious bumps, but that is caused by poor investment choices and shitty management. What that means isn't that there is no more room in the market and economy for those companys, it means that others, better run and managed companies, will be able to step up and fill the void and once the market adjustment is finished, business will resume, with lessons learned. Now that the extent of greed and mismanagment are known and understood, I highly doubt that this sort of maleficence will not be tolerated nor will it be allowed to fester without being exposed to the light of day anymore like it has in the current market situation. I'm not saying everything is rosy and perfect, sure, people are taking a hit in the market right now, but the honest fact is that the current market numbers are mostly based off of speculation and desire, not off of real production and solid facts, and much of the money lost is what I call "fake money" that was only there because of speculation in the first place. What we will see now is a lowering of prices across the board, gas, foodstuffs, basic necessities, etc. The dollar will adjust over time and come out stronger on the international market then it currently is. In the end, the sky is NOT falling. This a necessary adjustment that is really just a case of national market house cleaning. Getting rid of the weak and replacing them with the strong. In the future, houses will be cheaper to buy, credit will be given based on strict, real world demands, no more giving 400,000 dollar home loans to people that make $60,000 a year, fuel prices will be more reasonable, food prices will drop, and it will be easier for Americans to stash money away in savings while at the same time, buying what they want and need, thusly funding a strong economy. But the market correction has to happen first. Sort of like tending a festering wound if you will. You have to cut away the dead meat, clean the wound, apply medicine as needed, then make sure you change the dressing appropriatly and observe the healing as time goes by to make sure it is healing properly and not festering or getting worst. Once it is healed, it will be strong. So will our economy. |
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Ok, since there have been so many good replys to this thread means that at least some of you free thinkers are concerned with what is happening to our economy, and your future. This is not a chicken little, the sky is falling thread. This is really happening...as we speak. Despite what some of the beautiful people up in here think, I am not your enemy. The evil black rifles are just like any other firearm, and I've a owned lot of them over the years. I actually made some decent money on them when I sold them as used firearms years and years ago...How many of you can say that ? Some of these same people adhere to the head in the sand beliefs of the Flat Earth Society. That being, nothing that I don't believe in is good for any of you. What I was trying to convey in this thread is that it is going to be very difficult to jump start your life as a young couple or single young person if you simply can't get a loan to get started in life, regaurldless of what kind of collateral you can put up at the time. Now this resonates into all walks of our lives. Grumpy, you know about as much of what goes on in my custom rifle business as you know about investing money for the future. The head in the sand approach is just plain stupid. Talk about an entitlement mentality. You have it nailed down pretty tight. Hey look, I even spelled you screen name right this time. I'd actually like to know what your real name is so I could address you in an adult like manner. So if you bought stocks this morning, hey, you made some money today. Unfortunately, this roller coaster ride is just beginning. The real problem is that the banks who are still in business are very reluctant to lend money to other banks and on and on and on. AMSEO...geeze, I hope I spelled you name right....your posts about the banking system are so right on and so few here gave you any credit. Your time served in the banking industry and the advice you have given here should be paid very close attention to. It is quite obvious that his advice will help all of you near term and in the long run. Ok Gumby, go ahead...Flame on... |
While you have some very good points, I have to say, your opening shot at Grumpy in the middle of your original post seemed out of place and off topic. While I'm sure you have a lot to contribute here, I'm not a big fan of pissing matches in the middle of what could otherwise be a very informative discussion. I tend to get turned off to the discussion entirely and move on to greener threads. Do not take this is me standing up for Grumpy in any way. I'm not fighting his fights for him or backing anything he said while returning your fire. I've met you in person, and know you to be a good man. All I ask that you live up to the impression you originally gave off. |
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A small correction LCR1, community banks are willing to lend money right now. Some categories are closed for the time being as things shake out, like raw land loans (unless you have a relationship with us already), acquisition and development loans, and spec home lending. Need car, home equity loan, new home loan? We got money for you. Does your business need money to expand, buy new equipment, buy a new building? We got money for you. Banks are still open and doing business. Choose wisely with whom you do business with, though, and for god sakes, develop a relationship with a banker if you own your own business. It is imperative in these times. They have a wealth of knowledge and can help you. As far as misspelling my name, no biggie. Mesojednik is my last name and it never gets spelled correctly.
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You, like many others, are reading too much into what is currently taking place. It's as simple as that. The market is cyclical. Always has been, always will be. It, like anything that has a basis in speculation will inflate and deflate. It all depends on how long you hold on for the ride. The fact that it is in fact backed up for the most part by the productivity of our capitalist society and our ability as a country to produce, is what keeps the fundamental economy strong even through the speculative ups and downs. This means that there is a fundamental base of "real" worth based on our domestic production base of our country. Beyond that there is that bubble of what I refered to in my last post as "fake" money which pushes the market higher then it should be based on speculation. It is this bubble that ebbs and flows so easily because its entire existance is based on the "feelings" of investors who buy when they "feel" confident, and sell when they "feel" that things aren't going so well. While America's production power keeps on chugging, the speculation bubble grows and shrinks at the will of the investors, sometimes taking only a few negative words of a shitbag politician (chuck schumer) to bring down what would have remained a fairly solid lending institution simply because people "felt" that things were going to go bad. You are apparently, blissfully ignorant of this fact and would prefer to live in your little "the world is ending" fantasy land.
I too have a history with them, except I have it based out of my love for them, not because they are an easy buck.
'Tis a silly thing to say. So now because people won't take up the call of "the sky is falling" and agree with you, we have our heads in the sand? Childish.
It will be no harder for anybody to get credit or "jump start" their lives then it was prior to the beginning of the "free credit" stage that led to the current mess. You act as if the new stage where good credit will be necessary for getting loans is a new thing, that since they aren't throwing ridiculous loans at unqualified people like they did for the last five years means that everybody as a whole is screwed. Bullshit. Encouraging people, young and old alike, to act responsibly and take care of business and treat their obligations (credit) like something important is only a good thing for our economy as that sets a solid foundation for the economy as a whole to be based on, rather then stupid speculative bubbles as we have had for the last few years. If you disagree with this, that is your perogative, but it doesn't make you right, and shows that you have a pretty lacking understanding of economy in general.
Your assumptions about my knowledge of firearms goes as deep as your misunderstanding of our economy. Remember, assumption makes an ass of you and umption. And your statement of "entitlement mentality" tells me that you either didn't read a damn thing I wrote, your reading fundamentals are lacking, or your literacy as a whole is in doubt.
That's nice. You only get my real name after we meet in person and I get to measure you as a man, not just another keyboard cowboy.
Not much left for me to do. "Better to keep your mouth shut and have people only think you're an idiot, then open it and prove them right." While I agree that open discussion on this topic is a good thing, and your decision to start this thread was timely, I must say that your take on the current events is reactionary, non-productive, and off the mark. |
That's an awful nice ditch you got there, but it really needs reinforcement and you REALLY need to clear your fields of fire. Some storage space and covered/ secured areas would be nice as well. It's a good start though.....
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I prefer the high ground thank you. Better field of fire.
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.gov just banned short-selling on financials. That means there is no longer anything holding down wm's PPS. Paulson and "Helicopter-Ben" are presenting a bailout scheme similar to the Resolution Trust Corp that bailed-out Savings & Loan debacle back in the eighties, (for those like me who are old enough to remember those days) wm has nowhere to go but up. Strapping on the fucking big brass balls at the open. Damn do I wish to hell I had access to premarket. This is going to be my best bottom-fishing expedition ever. Even better than LNUX mid-2003 and late '05/early '06. See 'ya, ladies... |
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I have about $10K in student loans, owe $10K on my car, and am paying off $1,000 a month. I have a stable job, and though I hate to admit it... the worse the economy, the more stable I am at work. I plan on moving from auditing to fraud examination in a few years, and anytime the economy is unstable, fraud is on the rise. I'm pretty confident in my career choice for the future at this point in time. Some of the advice in this thread is fantastic, and while I'm already doing some of the things suggested, I will surely be looking into the rest as well. |