Posted: 8/18/2007 11:21:53 AM EDT
| Is anbody else getting the feeling that we might have another big one soon? |
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On a big one, to the east of the LA area, you can expect that I-15 through Cajon Pass will close, I10 through Beaumont Pass will close. Which btw will mean the rail links to the east will also close. Southeast of there and east of the Salton Sea, I-10 will likely be disrupted for a few days at least at several points, the UP (former SP) rail link will undoubtedly be really messed up. I-15 and Cajon Pass are likely to be disrupted but back into service quickly. North to northwest of LA, figure I-5, US-99 will be busted up pretty good Up past Parkfield(into Monterey County) damage in the LA area transportation system should be easily repairable. North of that the Northies can worry cuz the Bay area is going to be clobbered something freaking fierce. (BTW there are several major banking computer centers up there that will get clobbered, most are theoretically backed up and have alternate sites outside the area, realistically expecting a bay area big one is coming) As of about 20 years ago (before the days of the PC and Internet) so the banking systems and ATMs were a major concern, not sure what the new arrangements are there, but the .gov and various banks were going to be bringing in the equivalent of ATM stations for distributing cash, I expect that these will be linked through satellites and not land lines. Figure anything landline or cellular is not going to be there, internet included. Most of the breweries throughout the US are supposed to be going to shift into canning drinking water We know the drinking water idea is feasible, it's been used on small scales in hurricanes. But a lot of trucks and train containers are going to be pressed into service bringing water and food supplies That said the first 3 days to a week are going to be tough if you aren't prepared on your own to subsist for that time. That said with 14 million folks here in SoCal, 1/100th of a percent casualties is still 1400 people. |
How the hell are we gonna get to Vegas??? 
I believe Al Gore will have something to say about that...He was hard at work inventing the internet right around then, wasn't he? |
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It is very difficult to imagine how an earthquake, even a really big one, could cause anywhere near the level of social disruption caused by east-of-the-Rockies natural disasters such as tornadoes, hurricanes and ice storms. PaDanby does a good job of painting a worst-case scenario, ie, Los Angeles' main supply routes through Cajon Pass and the Grapevine being severed. Beaumont Pass, on the other hand, doesn't seem to be at great risk, and in any case based on how CalTrans dealt with the aftermath of the '71 and '94 quakes, we can expect that supply disruption would only last a few days at the most. The only thing people really need for such a short period is water and, to some extent, medical supplies. The latter do not weigh much and can be easily airlifted in and deployed to hospitals (ie. medical supplies do not have to be broadly distributed among the population like food and water does). Emergency water provision could be more problematic, depending on what the authorities have planned. I have often been critical of our local and regional governments, but I think it is safe to say that California's authorities' preparedness and ability to execute in the event of a natural disaster is many times greater than that of the corrupt and incompetent authorities in places like Louisiana. Compared to cities like New Orleans, Baltimore and Philadelphia, Los Angeles' municipal and regional governments are beacons of transparency and professionalism. We are actually very fortunate here in California, no matter what the ant-burners think. Most people have all the food they need for a week or more in their kitchen cupboards, without even thinking about it. Sure, if Cajon Pass is closed for a few days there will be a lot of hungry people, but no one will starve to death in a week. Evacuation of LA, for any reason, is completely out of the question, as anyone who has used the freeways during a weekday rush hour can attest. There is simply no way to quickly move large numbers of people (15 million or more?) out of the basin. It is far easier to rapidly repair damaged infrastructure and supply people from outside. Since I have two water heaters, and therefore all the water I would need for a week-long emergency (the longest I can conceive an earthquake severely disrupting things), I admittedly don't worry as much about preparedness as maybe I should. |
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In the aftermatch of an earthquake, even THE BIG ONE, there is no need to evacuate the LA area. It is probably preferable everyone go home and stay home. The roads will be needed to carry relief supplies in. If there were a nuclear, chemical or biological event, that might be diiffferent, maybe. |