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[ARCHIVED THREAD] - NFA Wait Calculator (Page 1 of 2)
Posted: 7/8/2012 1:20:13 PM EDT
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How accurate is it?
A month ago it said that my form 1 was most likely coming back in January. I just checked it again and it's saying August. It went pending on April 27th. |
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How accurate is it? A month ago it said that my form 1 was most likely coming back in January. I just checked it again and it's saying August. It went pending on April 27th. Wait times have really started to speed up lately. With a pending date of April 27th, I would say more like September, but August seems close enough. |
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How accurate is it? A month ago it said that my form 1 was most likely coming back in January. I just checked it again and it's saying August. It went pending on April 27th. Wait times have really started to speed up lately. With a pending date of April 27th, I would say more like September, but August seems close enough. I was thinking September also, was just surprised to see August. |
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I have one cashed on 4/18, program says should expect it in august, that would be great if true, but I expected sep/oct. There's no way in Hell that's possible. That tells me that the calculator is fucked.  Way to shred dreams...
My bad man!!! 
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| The wait time calculator takes into account the current trend in wait times. The trend is for lower and lower wait times right now, but it is unlikely that the trend will continue to diminish at the rate that it is now. You are probably looking at October. I have a form 4 for a suppressor that went pending April 28th. I expect to get it in October as well. It would be great if the trend continued, but the "helpers" will only have an effect up to a certain point. |
You are looking at 150 days from pending to approved and dropping:
Not trying to brag here but NFATracker may got their idea from my tinfoil hat thread here: Tinfoil! ETA: The axis are pending date and days from then until approval. |
We'll see who is right, but I'm not having a good feeling about October.
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Haha... you're the 15%! got SD my stamp back today 
So, does that mean that the calculator is pretty accurate? Just based on my case I would say it is accurate. My forms were pending as of January 30th and the calculator said "92% of similar applicants would have their stamp by now. Statistically speaking, you're having bad luck with this application." And that part about bad luck is true, I would have my stamp by now but it went into problem status as of June 18th. |
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Haha... you're the 15%! got SD my stamp back today
So, does that mean that the calculator is pretty accurate? Just based on my case I would say it is accurate. My forms were pending as of January 30th and the calculator said "92% of similar applicants would have their stamp by now. Statistically speaking, you're having bad luck with this application." And that part about bad luck is true, I would have my stamp by now but it went into problem status as of June 18th. Generally speaking, when a form goes into problem status is when it would have been approved if not for the problem. Basically, you have reached the top of the pile. |
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Quoted: There's a 74% chance I'll have my stamp in October. Check was cashed on 6/15. I got excited when I put in my check cashed date. The check was cashed on May 9 and I have like a 67% chance of getting it back in September. When I put in my pending date (June 8), it says I have a 32% chance of September and a 57% chance of October. |
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There's a 74% chance I'll have my stamp in October. Check was cashed on 6/15. I got excited when I put in my check cashed date. The check was cashed on May 9 and I have like a 67% chance of getting it back in September. When I put in my pending date (June 8), it says I have a 32% chance of September and a 57% chance of October. I'd be more inclined to believe the calculation with the pending date. It seems the timing of the check cashing varies a good bit. |
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I have three forms pending right now and it says 80% chance of approval in August. Pending as of 4/11. I'm not really holding my breath and here is why. Or at least my understanding of it. The NFA wait time calculator is based on a linear equation of the data points reported. Right now that line has a rather steep negative slope because of the influx of the assistant examiners. It is anyone's guess as to whether the trend will continue. Eventually it has to level off. The NFA branch has stated their goal is 60 days for transfers so this may be where it levels off. Here is a link to his graph and he states "All you can do in that case is hope that the trend line holds and wait for more data." http://www.randominfo.net/NFA/WaitTimeTrend.php Personally I'm hoping the trend continues and goes down to 10 days but I'm trying to be realistic also. |
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I have three forms pending right now and it says 80% chance of approval in August. Pending as of 4/11. I'm not really holding my breath and here is why. Or at least my understanding of it. The NFA wait time calculator is based on a linear equation of the data points reported. Right now that line has a rather steep negative slope because of the influx of the assistant examiners. It is anyone's guess as to whether the trend will continue. Eventually it has to level off. The NFA branch has stated their goal is 60 days for transfers so this may be where it levels off. Here is a link to his graph and he states "All you can do in that case is hope that the trend line holds and wait for more data." http://www.randominfo.net/NFA/WaitTimeTrend.php Personally I'm hoping the trend continues and goes down to 10 days but I'm trying to be realistic also. I think the 150 day mark would be a realistic expectation if you look at the red and green lines together and sort of average them there's nothing saying that the downward slope will continue but it does appear that the new assistants have at least knocked the "hump" off the wait time chart 5 months was a good ballpark estimate even 2 years ago so if i was you i'd expect it by early september |
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Sent a Form 1 in January. Got kicked back July 2nd, fixed and resent July 2nd. Waiting semi patiently for it's return. Got my stamp yesterday What method did you sent it back? It took them a month to process after fix?  That seems normal. |
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That thing isnt accurate. It tells me 100% of similar applicants would have got their stamps by now, looking ahead you have 0% percent chance of recieving it before hell freezes over. It does say 100% though and I called friday still pending.  When did yours go pending? I had three approved in a little over a month, the one pending 1/09/12 was approved 6/13/2012 and the two pending 1/24/12 were approved 7/14/2012. |
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I think the calculator needs a little bit of tweaking. It looks like it i spitting out guesses that are a little fast. I told me for 3/30 pending over 50% of people have got their stamps back. It doesn't look like it's anything close to that just from skimming through the data. I'm not going to complain since the guy who put that stuff up is doing it out of the goodness of his heart, even if he does have a couple ads on the page.
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UPDATE:
Mine came back due to the fact that my dumbass sent it on two sheets. This is what happens when you rush like a dimwit. Btw, I didn't do a letter of compliance with my Form 1 Trust - I thought it was going to come back for that, but apparently they didn't need it. Funny enough my reason for return he just wrote "2 appications" LOL ... appications. Looks like they also managed to lose one of my applications lol. I went pending march 26th, error letter came in today July 30th. That's almost exactly four months. |
| The one that says 100% is pending mid jan. Called today and checked on 4 that I have pending and still all 4 pending. Here are my times so far. Form 4 suppressor pending 167 days, form 4 suppressor pending 151 days, form 1 sbr pending 167 days, form 4 mg pending 131 days. Ready for some toys to get approved. Hate seeing so many get theirs back with later pending dates. all the ones on nfa tracker with 4 month door to door times listed , I call a big BS!!! I saw on here someone say they gonna try to get wait times down to 60 days, well maybe your wonderland is right around the corner alice, but in this world of batfe nothing will ever happen that quickly without a complete transformation of the system. That isnt gonna happen because the longer wait is to deter more ownership of items not make it easier and faster to obtain items. ok guys sorry to vent like that, just want my toys. Hope I didnt offend anyone or anything. Congrats to those getting their stamps. |
[ARCHIVED THREAD] - NFA Wait Calculator (Page 1 of 2)
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