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Posted: 6/5/2001 10:05:07 AM EDT
Many on this board predict China will invade Taiwan and fight the U.S. in a decade. I do believe China will take Taiwan, but I think that Hong Kong, Macao, & Taiwan will corrupt the Chinese mainland and bring down the last big communist nation in twenty years. I also believe China will face internal dissension as their ethnic minorities attempt to gain autonomy, just like the USSR.
Link Posted: 6/5/2001 9:11:02 PM EDT
i dont have a crystal ball, but chinese history has revealed a certain trend to me as far as their foreign and domestic policies; they have never been expansionist and they have never rushed into war or wanted it. i dont think they will invade anywhere, even taiwan, except to regain their sovereign territory if it were to attempt to break free from china. and that can hardly be considered an "invasion".in any case, i cant see anyone trying to intervene. as far as communism being ousted, i think the only time the chinese govt will restucture is after the old coots in charge are gone. they have been at the head of the table since the revolution and hold onto thier traditions and cultural ways strongly. although, profits have even convinced them to restucture their thoughts on business. but most of all, most in china have the same lifestyle either way, that of a peasant farmer and they simly want to be left alone.
Link Posted: 6/6/2001 11:43:18 AM EDT
then lets take the fight to them!
Link Posted: 6/6/2001 5:36:43 PM EDT
I don't know the facts, but that hasn't stopped me before. China doesn't appear to be expansionist because of the lethargy of the late dynasty. The present one swallowed Tibet, Hongcong, and soon Macao. They are, or were a few years ago, fighting mad that Russia took over big chunks of Northeast China in the 1800's. Over the past couple centurys, they have been preoccupied in keeping what they already had - much less dominate thier neighbors. They are also surrounded by powerful neighbors with a history of fighting China - Vietnam, Russia, Japan, India, etc. The only place they can flex their muscle is at sea, and this route is only now becoming feasible.
Link Posted: 6/6/2001 7:31:23 PM EDT
thats a good point, but remember that chinas military is a generation behind the west, including their navy. that may be why they were so concerned about taiwan having an aeegis (sp?) destroyer. i am certainly not an expert, maybe just trying to defuse the chicom scare a little with the minimal info i have. at any rate, i recall a story when china designed a fighter and could not get enough thrust out of their engine, so they bought a rolls from britain and it nearly tore the jet apart. so they then obtained a mig (cant remember which one) and tried to reverse engineer it and they couldnt even do that.
Link Posted: 6/8/2001 6:12:24 AM EDT
Don't be fooled. The Chinese are VERY good at reverse engineering. The jet they copied was an early version of the Mig 21. They made several hundred of them; and still fly them. You've heard of Chinese Uzis and M14s haven't you... and they work just fine. There's even a copy of the M16, reverse engineered from Vietnam examples. I won't even go into the electronics and machine tools they've copied and sold all over the world. And, as the final insult, they copied the Jeep Cherokee.
Link Posted: 6/8/2001 6:38:04 AM EDT
The Chinese think in terms of centuries. If the time isn't right, they'll wait. They have all eternity to accomplish their goals. Don't apply western thinking to ANYTHING the Chinese or North Koreans do. It's all about getting what they want by little steps to set-up the next play. Even if the little steps result in set-backs, it's OK. Same as chess. sacrifice a piece there, make moves to get your opponent into an unfavorable position. Not just strike at the king and hope you take him right away. They will not strike at Taiwan until the time is right for them. That's everything is right for them. Military might, world power, the right administration in office, the right political climate in Taiwan, the right everything. The very fact that the idea of unification has been brought up openly in Taiwan would signal to them that their goal is achieveable without fighting. All it takes is time and patience. They have that in spades. Ross
Link Posted: 6/8/2001 8:17:41 AM EDT
You need to consider the concept of Chinese nationalism. The ideogram for China is "middle kingdom" (or central kingdom). Chinese don't recognize national boundaries like Western cultures. They figure if you have black hair and eat with chopsticks you're Chinese. That's why they have problems with Tibet and Taiwan. If you look at political world maps/globes imported from China, you'll see that Tibet and Taiwan are colored the same as China. They think that these countries belong to them and that the people are just hard to govern. China knows that the USA will defend Taiwan, or else China would have invaded years ago. Hong Kong, Taiwan, and capitalism generally will cause an evolution in China. The generation of the cultural revolution is being displaced by people who have no immediate historical memory of Chaing Kai Schek. Mao and revolution were cultural anomolies. China will evolve, not revolt.
Link Posted: 6/8/2001 6:11:59 PM EDT
powderburn, "evolve not revolt." very well put.
Link Posted: 6/20/2001 7:41:48 PM EDT
China will be one of the most interesting countries in the next century. For America, it might be best if they stay under the Chicom jackboot. Could you imagine if they become the next Japan?
Link Posted: 6/20/2001 9:49:07 PM EDT
What do you mean by Chicom jackboot?
Link Posted: 6/21/2001 6:00:24 PM EDT
China might be more dangerous to us as a vibrant economic force than a country held in check by old Maoists who fear capitalism. The Japanese harmed our economy more in the 1970's than the Soviets.
Link Posted: 6/28/2001 10:36:24 AM EDT
SS109, While I agree that the Japan ecomomic turnaround undoubtedly did force American workers into unemployment, I would argue that this was due to increased desirability of Japanese products to American consumers. Should we hate the Japanese for making superior quality products? They didn't always make superior products-- it was through hard work and dedication. If our leaders of American industry had embraced the idea of quality manufacturing as espoused by Deming et al., the Japanese would not have been able to come to the forefront the way they did. Our vulnerability created an opportunity for them, and their excellence forced us to clean up our act. We have closed the gap, but must be vigilant about ensuring that "made in America" is synonomous with "NONE BETTER."
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