Posted: 11/30/2009 11:40:24 AM EDT
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http://www.technologyreview.com/Energy/13830/ In the scientific and political debate over global warming, the latest wrong piece may be the hockey stick, the famous plot (shown below), published by University of Massachusetts geoscientist Michael Mann and colleagues. This plot purports to show that we are now experiencing the warmest climate in a millennium, and that the earth, after remaining cool for centuries during the medieval era, suddenly began to heat up about 100 years ago––just at the time that the burning of coal and oil led to an increase in atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide. But now a shock: Canadian scientists Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick have uncovered a fundamental mathematical flaw in the computer program that was used to produce the hockey stick. In his original publications of the stick, Mann purported to use a standard method known as principal component analysis, or PCA, to find the dominant features in a set of more than 70 different climate records. But it wasnt so. McIntyre and McKitrick obtained part of the program that Mann used, and they found serious problems. Not only does the program not do conventional PCA, but it handles data normalization in a way that can only be described as mistaken. Now comes the real shocker. This improper normalization procedure tends to emphasize any data that do have the hockey stick shape, and to suppress all data that do not. To demonstrate this effect, McIntyre and McKitrick created some meaningless test data that had, on average, no trends. This method of generating random data is called Monte Carlo analysis, after the famous casino, and it is widely used in statistical analysis to test procedures. When McIntyre and McKitrick fed these random data into the Mann procedure, out popped a hockey stick shape! Translation: They lied, either intentionally or not, Global warming is a lie. |
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It's really hard to not be smug about all of this evidence of fraud coming out. What are the chances that this will actually cause a stop or reversal on climate change sentiment, vs "damn the evidence and fullspeed ahead"? global warming is a religion to those people. They will never let the fact that people misused and fabricated 'data' call their beliefs into question. |
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It's really hard to not be smug about all of this evidence of fraud coming out. All I want to do is wear a sign that says "I told you so" to my democratic/global warming believing family for xmas. All of them trip over each other eating up everything Obama says, so sad. |
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Well, a couple months before the Hadley CRU email hack broke, the data that Mann used to generate his 'Hockey Stick' graph were finally released. He cherry picked data and left a bunch out. When ALL of the data was used, there was no hockey stick, and in fact, there was no average incline - the average was actually a decline.
Now this breaking about the method (software) that Mann used? This just keeps getting better and better. The AGW house needs to burn. Burn motherfucker. Burn. |
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Quoted: Quoted: It's really hard to not be smug about all of this evidence of fraud coming out. What are the chances that this will actually cause a stop or reversal on climate change sentiment, vs "damn the evidence and fullspeed ahead"? None would be my guess. second |
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Damn, I was out in the yard with my aerosol cans trying to make the globe warmer! Im not ready for winter... If you're really not ready for winter, might I suggest burning tires and Styrofoam instead.  In Indiana, burning tires is a D felony, maybe that'll change now. Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile |
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It's really hard to not be smug about all of this evidence of fraud coming out. What are the chances that this will actually cause a stop or reversal on climate change sentiment, vs "damn the evidence and fullspeed ahead"? Not much chance. The enviro-radical-socialist-watermellons will just try another scare tactic to force their agenda. FIrst it was nuclear fallout, then along came acid rain, then the save the tuna scare, followed closely by destruction of the rain forest. The current chant of global warming is actually starting to fall out of disfavor with the replacement term of "climate change" now being used. Climate change? Have they run out of creative phrases and topics that they just repackage global warming into a new phrase? |
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Quoted: Quoted: i heard rush talking about it and yet the MSM doesn't report shit it's pretty disgusting  don't prop the parrot press corps up in any way.. they are NOT mainstream Bullshit. They are who the ignorant masses listen to and believe. Your average sheeple takes everything on network news as the word of God, and consider CNN to be the only real cable news channel. The reason the MSM ratings are so bad is because the sheep only turn them on when there's news. People like us are who gives Fox good ratings. Example: Average sheep person hears there's a big scandle with Global Warming. After they get home and watch American Idol they remember and turn on CNN to see if there's any word. They watch just long enough to see the Global Warming "Expert" say that it's all a bunch of bunk made up by the disbelievers and those who can't understand what was written in the e-mails. They go to bed, reassured by the "Real" news that Global Warming is indeed real, and we're all gonna die unless Obama and Congress saves us all. |
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The stupid thing is that the liberals control education and the media - to a low to mid ninety percent level and both of these institutions have had to be working together to pull this latest propaganda coop off. There's been half a dozen past ones, and there's another one right around the corner - over population was the cry when I was a child in the 1960's about how we were breeding out of control, then it was global cooling, pollution, DDT ... there's another lie and another lie and another lie all designed to take liberty away from citizens and put power into the hands of the liberals.
Propaganda works on those who refuse to focus on the truth and sadly most Americans don't have the time, energy, or flat out intelligence to see though the lies. When academia and the media are feeding a steady drumbeat of global warming and how America needs to be less productive, less consumptive, less American ... most Americans are going to want to "save the planet from the global disaster of the decade". Once solved there's another and another and another all with something in common - our way of life, our most successful way of life of any nation every yet on earth, is fundamentally wrong and needs to be controlled, restricted, or hobbled in one manner or another. It's almost as if Chinese and Russian scientist brainwashed our leaders - or substituted a look alike in their place to destroy the American way of life. But sadly our own American liberal leaders want us to be more like socialist Europe and less like America. |
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It's really hard to not be smug about all of this evidence of fraud coming out. What are the chances that this will actually cause a stop or reversal on climate change sentiment, vs "damn the evidence and fullspeed ahead"? Not good. The Climate "Global Warming" Change ideology is the perfect fake platform for controlling the populace. All this truth will be swept under the rug like so many other things. |
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Yes, I think that bit of code referred to here, was posted in the original Hadley thread a day or two ago. Hell, I remember reading about this story more than a year ago when Kim du Toit was still blogging. It has always been actively ignored by the MSM! |
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http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/69797-gibbs-despite-research-dispute-climate-change-is-happening The White House on Monday made exceptionally clear that it wants nothing to do with the furor over documents that global warming skeptics say prove the phenomenon is not a threat. Despite the incident, which rocked international headlines last week, climate science is sound, Press Secretary Robert Gibbs stressed this afternoon, and the White House nonetheless believes "climate change is happening." "I don't think that's anything that is, quite frankly, among most people, in dispute anymore," he said during Monday's press briefing. |
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Quoted: http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/69797-gibbs-despite-research-dispute-climate-change-is-happening The White House on Monday made exceptionally clear that it wants nothing to do with the furor over documents that global warming skeptics say prove the phenomenon is not a threat. Despite the incident, which rocked international headlines last week, climate science is sound, Press Secretary Robert Gibbs stressed this afternoon, and the White House nonetheless believes "climate change is happening." "I don't think that's anything that is, quite frankly, among most people, in dispute anymore," he said during Monday's press briefing. He'll eat those words before this is all said and done. Now that it is threatening to affect their checkbooks, people are starting to pay attention. They should have stuck with incrementalism. It would have worked. |
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It's really hard to not be smug about all of this evidence of fraud coming out. What are the chances that this will actually cause a stop or reversal on climate change sentiment, vs "damn the evidence and fullspeed ahead"? global warming is a religion to those people. They will never let the fact that people misused and fabricated 'data' call their beliefs into question. It is a religion. "Environmentalism should be regarded on the same level with religion "as the only compelling, value-based narrative available to humanity, according to a paper written two years ago to influence the future strategy of the United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP), the world's would-be environmental watchdog." |
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ancient news, but significant. the problem is that the NAS called mann on the carpet and investigated his methodology. the result: NAS endorsed confidence in his general thesis, but assigned a lower confidence level to his statements such as "1998 was the warmest year in the millenium".
but it has been well established (and openly admitted by mann) that his protocols selected for hockey sticks. |
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It's really hard to not be smug about all of this evidence of fraud coming out. What are the chances that this will actually cause a stop or reversal on climate change sentiment, vs "damn the evidence and fullspeed ahead"? Not much chance. The enviro-radical-socialist-watermellons will just try another scare tactic to force their agenda. FIrst it was nuclear fallout, then along came acid rain, then the save the tuna scare, followed closely by destruction of the rain forest. The current chant of global warming is actually starting to fall out of disfavor with the replacement term of "climate change" now being used. Climate change? Have they run out of creative phrases and topics that they just repackage global warming into a new phrase? You left out Killer Bees, Save the Whales, Ebola, Clubbing baby seals, Polar Bears, and on and on and on. Polar Bears... I love this one... "more polar bears are dying..." Yes, and that's because their popular has INCREASED, so there are more bears to die. |