Posted: 12/19/2008 1:35:08 AM EDT
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Very bad.
I'm going to live in "interesting times". Woot. |
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The Founders have succeeded in almost every way possible...
Generations later their decendants populated the land with people who had less willpower and resolve to continue to fight for and protect the values they were given. The Founders have not failed, but maybe the last handful of generations have. BTW - Quick change on the thread title and content there... 
My reply was directed toward the thread about how the founding fathers have failed... posted as a question. |
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The Founders have succeeded in almost every way possible... Generations later their descendants populated the land with people who had less willpower and resolve to continue to fight for and protect the values they were given. The Founders have not failed, but maybe the last handful of generations have. BTW - Quick change on the thread title and content there...  Sorry, I had to edit, the Founders' don't deserve even tangential criticism because some later generations got complacent. |
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The most important thing for some folks here to consider is adaptation.
Not everything is going to hell in a handbasket... most folks here are better prepared for anything difficult to come than the average citizen. There may be hard times, but they can be overcome. Clearly our votes didn't stop a shift to the left this time around, but things are going to happen one way or another. The choices are simple... if it comes to blows, then likeminded members of ARF have the advantage in many ways. We should do everything possible to prevent that scenario. Carry on
ETA - Who is John Galt 
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CNBC live (if you can still log on now that the east coast is up) is simply grim.
The fact that stocks have not responded (other than losing around 45%) to ALL the unbelievably negative economic information is a sign of the depth of the delusion...and the pain of the withdrawal that is to come. |
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One more thing... to the depressed, forsaken, downtrodden folks in the GD...
If you are feeling hopeless... try this... Take a look at a variety of photos from 1930, read some news articles or books from the era. Then do the same for 1960... Then do the same for 1990... Alot of things can change before your kids or grandkids reach retirement... we made a great deal of progress in this nation in the last 70 years... Maybe we need a kick in the ass to get back into gear... and maybe the next 4 years will be exactly that. Your lives have not ended... yet |
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CNBC live (if you can still log on now that the east coast is up) is simply grim. The fact that stocks have not responded (other than losing around 45%) to ALL the unbelievably negative economic information is a sign of the depth of the delusion...and the pain of the withdrawal that is to come. That's because the train is running on inertia, even though the gears are broken. OPEC announces a 2 mil barrel output cut and oil falls to $38. People expect depressions to come all at once. It doesn't work that way. |
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It's sure bad. Bankers are jumping to their deaths, unemployment is 25%, people can't get medical care or food in some areas, and the average life span is only 45 years. Oh wait, that was 1929. Guess things could be a lot, lot, lot worse. When Swingset becomes Dave_A you know the SHTF. |
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It's sure bad. Bankers are jumping to their deaths, unemployment is 25%, people can't get medical care or food in some areas, and the average life span is only 45 years. Oh wait, that was 1929. Guess things could be a lot, lot, lot worse. When Swingset becomes Dave_A you know the SHTF. I'm a realist, not an optimist, not a pessimist. The only thing remarkable about what we're going through is the coverage it's getting. I've lived through the 70's economic downturn, which was as far reaching as this one was. The difference is that there wasn't an internet and 40 channels of shitty news coverage screaming "WE'RE FUCKED!!!!" Look at the numbers of our recessions, purely from a raw numbers standpoint. We've been through worse, this is bad and it'll get worse but it's nothing compared to past events. We've got a very long way to go before this country is really doomed. It's never as good as you hope or as bad as you fear. I think that's a song, but it's still a good mantra. |
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I've lost over 50% in my 401k so far. A lot of people don't realize that roughly the same number of people are out of work today as out of work in the 30's. Um no––not as a percentage of the population. The population is MUCH larger now, so "the same number of people out of work" is HIGHLY misleading. 
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I've lost over 50% in my 401k so far. A lot of people don't realize that roughly the same number of people are out of work today as out of work in the 30's. Um no––not as a percentage of the population. The population is MUCH larger now, so "the same number of people out of work" is HIGHLY misleading. Do your math skills fail you? It's not misleading it's the truth. The reported unemployment right now is what, 6.7%? This of course only takes into account the people who draw unemployment. Doesn't count the homeless, people who are out of work and don't qualify, or people who never found a job by the time their unemployment benefits ran out. The 6.7% already means over 20,000,000 people are jobless. In the 30's somewhere around 32-35 million were out of work. Personally I believe the current unemployment rate to be closer to 10%, which is probably a little more accurate. Do the math, not far off. |
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I've lost over 50% in my 401k so far. A lot of people don't realize that roughly the same number of people are out of work today as out of work in the 30's. Um no––not as a percentage of the population. The population is MUCH larger now, so "the same number of people out of work" is HIGHLY misleading. Do your math skills fail you? It's not misleading it's the truth. The reported unemployment right now is what, 6.7%? This of course only takes into account the people who draw unemployment. Doesn't count the homeless, people who are out of work and don't qualify, or people who never found a job by the time their unemployment benefits ran out. The 6.7% already means over 20,000,000 people are jobless. In the 30's somewhere around 32-35 million were out of work. Personally I believe the current unemployment rate to be closer to 10%, which is probably a little more accurate. Do the math, not far off. :sigh: What was the country's population in 1930? 
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| Somewhere around 132 million. And yes, 25% of the people were out of work, which means around 32 to 35 million people had no job. Ok, so the population today is what, 304 million, and close to 10% is probably out of work, so over 30 million today have no jobs. I fail to see what your not getting. When I said roughly the same amount of people are out of work today as in the 30's I'm correct. |
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I've lost over 50% in my 401k so far. A lot of people don't realize that roughly the same number of people are out of work today as out of work in the 30's. You're assuming we had the same size population as we do now. I'm not going to tell you all is well. All you can do is prepare and do what you can. I've been pulling as much over time at work while it's available. If need be, my parent's have a enough rooms that my whole family could move back in and pool our money together to survive. The only thing that really scares me, is if thing go south, the types of laws and regulations that will be passed. Something like....I lose my job and start doing XYZ out of my house for cheap, as well as others. The people who own a company that does or makes XYZ cries about it. Since they have the pull with the city/state/fed, they get a law passed saying I can't do XYZ anymore with out some license or put in some stupid zoning restriction. Or end up with some "New Deal" style garbage. ETA: I'm a slow typer. Yes, you are correct, in saying the same number of people are unemployed. However, I read that as you saying it's an indicator that things are as bad as they were in the 30s. |
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I've lost over 50% in my 401k so far. A lot of people don't realize that roughly the same number of people are out of work today as out of work in the 30's. Um no––not as a percentage of the population. The population is MUCH larger now, so "the same number of people out of work" is HIGHLY misleading. Do your math skills fail you? It's not misleading it's the truth. The reported unemployment right now is what, 6.7%? This of course only takes into account the people who draw unemployment. Doesn't count the homeless, people who are out of work and don't qualify, or people who never found a job by the time their unemployment benefits ran out. The 6.7% already means over 20,000,000 people are jobless. In the 30's somewhere around 32-35 million were out of work. Personally I believe the current unemployment rate to be closer to 10%, which is probably a little more accurate. Do the math, not far off. I've been told that if we used the unemployement statistics from the Clinton era, the unemployement numbers would be closer to 13-16%. 
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...Do your math skills fail you? It's not misleading it's the truth. The reported unemployment right now is what, 6.7%? This of course only takes into account the people who draw unemployment. Doesn't count the homeless, people who are out of work and don't qualify, or people who never found a job by the time their unemployment benefits ran out. The 6.7% already means over 20,000,000 people are jobless. In the 30's somewhere around 32-35 million were out of work. Personally I believe the current unemployment rate to be closer to 10%, which is probably a little more accurate. Do the math, not far off. The population in 1929 was about 100,000,000, as opposed to around 300,000,000 now. Assuming the same ratios of 'employable population', and if we match the 32 million figure, all other things being equal, we're still 3 times better off. It's a harsh recession, but let's not jump the gun with trying to call it a 'Depression'. |
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Regardless of how good or bad people think it is..............you have to admit, it's going to get alot worse before it begins to get better.
We were quite isolated as a nation in 29........Pearl Harbor was a long ways off , both in time and distance. The news was alot slower, but that was both good and bad. The average Mom and Pop didn't have investments in the market, but again....both good and bad. Average folks didn't have as much to loose back then, and were more used to going without........Id say they were much tougher. Now most people are too used to too many luxuries........they will feel like things are horrible even when compared to the past ,they aren't. Folks will get frustrated quicker and demand more.......the repercussions will be more dire than in the past. Take everything you read or see with a grain of salt , but dont burry your head in a pile of it ,either. Sooner or later , we are going to have to answer for all this money we are printing. This aint 29'.....things change alot faster ,and at a more drastic rate. IMO...the world is a much more dangerous fragile place today. 
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Well the news is terrible and outstanding balances from my customers are slow to trickle in but that is about it so far.
I am concerned things will get worse but I am trying to keep things in perspective. My retirement has lost bigtime but for years I have looked at the dramatic increases and thought it was bullshit. For those that know more about this do you feel that stocks have tanked or they have just adjusted to were they should be after years of being artificially propped up weather it be creative accounting or hidding bad mortages with shitty securities. I feel that the market is just correcting itself and there was no way to hide the facts anymore |
| I'm not saying things are as bad now as in the 30's, and I realize there is a different population wise. The only thing I said was roughly the same amount of people are out of work now as in the 30's. It's not misleading. If I had said the % was the same, then I'd be wrong, but I didn't. |
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The reason is that it's so "bad" right now is because most Americans are grossly spoiled and feel entitled to things which they have not earned. I don't mean to undermine the struggles by those who have lost jobs, etc. It would be a very healthy thing if credit was difficult to get. Most of our economic turmoil stems from irresponsible decisions on the part of government, businesses - but ultimately individuals. No one wants to take responsibility for their actions - regardless where they fit in society. Americans are guaranteed the pursuit of happyness - but not the end result. True prosperity is only the result of hard work and responsible financial management. Anything else is a facade.
The greatest danger right now is the blatant socialism that could result from these times. No one wants to make the difficult but healthy choices. Even President Bush wants to use the federal government to prop up failed businesses with taxpayers money. You can't solve a train wreck by throwing money at it. But that's exactly what the Dems and RINO's want you to think. If the economy goes in the tank - it will be MUCH worse then the 1930's. Most Americans then were a moral or religious people. Many people today have no aversion to breaking the law or taking from others to get. All it takes is a few hungry stomaches. We're in a recession and theft has already skyrocketed locally. If it gets worse, expect much more crime. |
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In North Texas, you can barely get around for all the Christmas shoppers. The parking lots of the eating joints are full. Houses are still being built and sold.
Yeah, things are tough all over. But then we: 1. have a GOP dominated state government 2. unions are less of a problem than fire ants 3. no state income tax 4. fairly liberal gun laws 5. Chuck Norris |
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They say that if you put a frog into a pot of boiling water, it will leap out right away to escape the danger.
But, if you put a frog in a kettle that is filled with water that is cool and pleasant, and then you gradually heat the kettle until it starts boiling, the frog will not become aware of the threat until it is too late. The frog's survival instincts are geared towards detecting sudden changes. This is a story that is used to illustrate how people might get themselves into terrible trouble. This parable is often used to illustrate how humans have to be careful to watch slowly changing trends in the environment, not just the sudden changes. Its a warning to keep us paying attention not just to obvious threats but to more slowly developing ones. |
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One more thing... to the depressed, forsaken, downtrodden folks in the GD... If you are feeling hopeless... try this... Take a look at a variety of photos from 1930, read some news articles or books from the era. Then do the same for 1960... Then do the same for 1990... Alot of things can change before your kids or grandkids reach retirement... we made a great deal of progress in this nation in the last 70 years... Maybe we need a kick in the ass to get back into gear... and maybe the next 4 years will be exactly that. Your lives have not ended... yet This isn't going to be a 1930, it will be an 1879
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...Do your math skills fail you? It's not misleading it's the truth. The reported unemployment right now is what, 6.7%? This of course only takes into account the people who draw unemployment. Doesn't count the homeless, people who are out of work and don't qualify, or people who never found a job by the time their unemployment benefits ran out. The 6.7% already means over 20,000,000 people are jobless. In the 30's somewhere around 32-35 million were out of work. Personally I believe the current unemployment rate to be closer to 10%, which is probably a little more accurate. Do the math, not far off. The population in 1929 was about 100,000,000, as opposed to around 300,000,000 now. Assuming the same ratios of 'employable population', and if we match the 32 million figure, all other things being equal, we're still 3 times better off. It's a harsh recession, but let's not jump the gun with trying to call it a 'Depression'. Depression is a made-up word. A Depression is a deep, prolonged recession, and nothing more. |
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GDP was -.5% last quarter.
279,000,000 still have jobs. I am thankful that I have a job and have the mental facilities to get a job at McDonalds who is hiring around here if I need to. People apply at my company for jobs and ask and I tell them are no jobs at my company right now. If I tell them of McDonalds many of them scoff. People would rather make nothing and complain than make $7.00 and try to get by. |
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Things are tight. My family back in CA most of them have jobs that are cutting back their hours because they dont have any orders for the work they perform. Things are pretty slow at my office too, this week is usually pretty dead for the construction industry though.
Here is my advice: if you dont want to lose your job, you need to become invaluable to the company. For a guy like me that rely on certifications and skills, I have my commercial building inspection certifications that I have now and more lined up to pass, but I also branched out into the civil engineering inspection side of my company when building inspection started slowing. I learned a lot of new information and skills. Since civil engineering is lagging too, I may look into seeing if they would be willing to cross train me again into surveying. Even if it doesnt work out with this company, I will have a lot of new skills that I can transfer immediately to any civil engineering company or building inspection department anywhere across the country, possibly world wide if the offer was good enough. Get aggressive with your future, dont wait for something to happen. Guys that do that are the ones who get hit the hardest by a recession. Diversify your skills, learn things that increase your total value as an employee in your career field, and be as flexible as possible so employers can work with you easily, because no one really likes to work with someone who is an ass. |
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Yeah, it's nearly as bad as it was in the mid 70s right now, except we don't have the runaway inflation. It's nowhere near the 1930s. Since the FED has rates basically at 0%, the only thing left to do is literally "Print Money". OUR Dollar has been devalued because there are to many "Dollars" out in circulation. Hyper-Inflation (Food&Energy) is around the corner when Other Countries try to get away from OUR dollar and WE are Stuck with all of THOSE Dollars allowed to be "Printed" by OUR Government. Deflation on Cars/Houses/Computers/TVs...etc. If you can't make a Profit, you can's Employ anyone? When this Happens is when Unemployment will hit the Fan. Why OUR Government is PANICKED right now, and has thrown OUR Constitution in the Trash. THEY have been telling US what's coming? Just start with Biden's comments; Then troop DEPLOYMENT in the US; Martial Law talk by OUR Representatives?; Riots, Fear, Fear, Fear!!! Emotional decisions are always bad. If all of what OUR .GOV has done doesn't work then Everyone will be Panicking. 
"Hope" can not cover up the Facts. Don't get caught with your pants down, become AWARE, and BE PREPARED for whats coming for You and Your Family. |
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...Hyper-Inflation (Food&Energy) is around the corner when Other Countries try to get away from OUR dollar and WE are Stuck with all of THOSE Dollars allowed to be "Printed" by OUR Government... America sold treasuries with an effective 0% (and even lower) yield, and they were snapped up in near record time. Something the doom-and-gloomers often forget is that as bad as things are here, they're worse in most other places. |
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It's sure bad. Bankers are jumping to their deaths, unemployment is 25%, people can't get medical care or food in some areas, and the average life span is only 45 years. Oh wait, that was 1929. Guess things could be a lot, lot, lot worse. Here's my take....no matter the situation, things can ALWAYS be worse. |
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Lemme remember here....bear with me, kids.
In the 50's we used to practice getting under our desks, curling up with our hands over our heads. That's because we were certain that the Russians were going to drop the atomic bomb on us. There were even Nike sites in Cleveland and along Lake Erie to intercept the Russian bombers. Same decade; there were massive strikes in the steel industry and steel was KING! For a time the economy stunk, but I was only in first grade in 1953. In 1959 Buddy Holly, Richie Valens, and The Big Bopper died in an airplane crash. That was my first clue that life was going to be a challenge. In the 60's the Communists were taking over the world one small country at a time. There was still a huge threat from the Soviets and then there was the "missile gap" where we didn't have enough ICBM's compared to the Soviets. Then the President was shot, we wound up in Viet Nam, protests started getting really violent, another Kennedy was killed, King was shot, riots were the theme of the week in the '60's. The 70's started with me getting commissioned and heading off to Viet Nam. Total confusion. Major Charlie Foxtrot. Got back to the states in good shape only to be egged, screamed at and have bags of piss thrown at us as we got off the plane and marched over to the bus that took us to Ft. Lewis. Got home to find my Father was even sicker than when I left. Alzheimer's disease had yet to get it's name in 1971. Oh, we were in this thing called a recession then, too. The rest of the 70's was a blur of gas lines, tremendous inflation, energy shortages/crisis, and climbing government intervention in our lives. The '80's saw the market take a huge drop, some recession and the Soviets still trying to kill us all without us killing them. Reagan put a stop to that nonsense. The '90's saw recession, boom, Clinton, Waco, and more government intervention in our lives. The Middle East was getting out of control and the U.S. sending troops to the Middle East(desert storm under Bush). U.S. interests were under increasing attack by Moslem whack jobs and we did nothing. This decade started with all the boomers being afraid their precious computers would puke on a date code. Then we took a punch from Moslem nut cases and we struck back. Oil was a weapon, the economy dipped then took off fed by crooked lending and way too much government intervention in private business. Now, at the end of 2008, our false economy is tanking. A year from now today will either look like the good old days or we'll be muddling along. We've got a president who's only claim to fame is giving a really good speech a few years ago. He's long on extreme left ideology and woefully ignorant on what America can be. He has no respect for the individual. This one is truly dangerous, folks. All that said, based on what I've seen since the 1950's, why should I expect anything different? Life's never been without risk and times past have been bad and scary. I've never lived my life in fear, although there were times I experienced real fear. We're better off than the folks who revolted in 1776. They had it really tough for many years. We aren't yet in the next Civil War. The last one was horrific. We're better off than our parents or grand parents were during the Great Depression and WWII. Don't get too upset. Prepare, gun up, keep your head down and get on with your life. Tomorrow will be here soon enough and it will either kill you or let you live another day. It's called life. I don't know what this all means or why I wrote it. Groucho |
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Lemme remember here....bear with me, kids. In the 50's we used to practice getting under our desks, curling up with our hands over our heads. That's because we were certain that the Russians were going to drop the atomic bomb on us. There were even Nike sites in Cleveland and along Lake Erie to intercept the Russian bombers. Same decade; there were massive strikes in the steel industry and steel was KING! For a time the economy stunk, but I was only in first grade in 1953. In 1959 Buddy Holly, Richie Valens, and The Big Bopper died in an airplane crash. That was my first clue that life was going to be a challenge. In the 60's the Communists were taking over the world one small country at a time. There was still a huge threat from the Soviets and then there was the "missile gap" where we didn't have enough ICBM's compared to the Soviets. Then the President was shot, we wound up in Viet Nam, protests started getting really violent, another Kennedy was killed, King was shot, riots were the theme of the week in the '60's. The 70's started with me getting commissioned and heading off to Viet Nam. Total confusion. Major Charlie Foxtrot. Got back to the states in good shape only to be egged, screamed at and have bags of piss thrown at us as we got off the plane and marched over to the bus that took us to Ft. Lewis. Got home to find my Father was even sicker than when I left. Alzheimer's disease had yet to get it's name in 1971. Oh, we were in this thing called a recession then, too. The rest of the 70's was a blur of gas lines, tremendous inflation, energy shortages/crisis, and climbing government intervention in our lives. The '80's saw the market take a huge drop, some recession and the Soviets still trying to kill us all without us killing them. Reagan put a stop to that nonsense. The '90's saw recession, boom, Clinton, Waco, and more government intervention in our lives. The Middle East was getting out of control and the U.S. sending troops to the Middle East(desert storm under Bush). U.S. interests were under increasing attack by Moslem whack jobs and we did nothing. This decade started with all the boomers being afraid their precious computers would puke on a date code. Then we took a punch from Moslem nut cases and we struck back. Oil was a weapon, the economy dipped then took off fed by crooked lending and way too much government intervention in private business. Now, at the end of 2008, our false economy is tanking. A year from now today will either look like the good old days or we'll be muddling along. We've got a president who's only claim to fame is giving a really good speech a few years ago. He's long on extreme left ideology and woefully ignorant on what America can be. He has no respect for the individual. This one is truly dangerous, folks. All that said, based on what I've seen since the 1950's, why should I expect anything different? Life's never been without risk and times past have been bad and scary. I've never lived my life in fear, although there were times I experienced real fear. We're better off than the folks who revolted in 1776. They had it really tough for many years. We aren't yet in the next Civil War. The last one was horrific. We're better off than our parents or grand parents were during the Great Depression and WWII. Don't get too upset. Prepare, gun up, keep your head down and get on with your life. Tomorrow will be here soon enough and it will either kill you or let you live another day. It's called life. I don't know what this all means or why I wrote it. Groucho Most Excellent Post. And the exact same thing my father has been saying when I approach him with the latest "doom and gloom" facts. Basically "Suck it up son, If I hid every time something less than good was on the horizon I'd never see the light of day" ETA: I think we have quite a few members here who revel in a coming "breakdown". In some twisted hope that "living off the grid", "sticking it to the man", and general anti-social behavior will be vindicated by a collapse of the US. My family and I live within our means, we are prepared, but I will NOT live my life in fear of what "might" happen. |