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AR15.COM
12/17/2008 5:40:36 PM EDT
From Karl Denninger at Ticker Forums to Mish Shedlock to George Noory on Coast to Coast AM radio, and Glenn Beck––all we hear is how we are totally fucked.  Store food, buy guns, ammo, gold, etc.  What's going to happen?  Well, they don't know, but it's gonna be bad.

Then there's Jim Cramer, CNBC, Paulson, Bernanke and others who say that we're in a normal part of the business cycle and not to worry, they have it handled.  Refinance your house, spend money, dollar cost average your way to retirement.  Don't worry, Chicken Little!

I'm sure that the truth lies somewhere in the middle, so:

What is the most likely realistic scenario for how we as a country work our way out of this mess?

Where is the GOOD NEWS?
12/17/2008 5:43:07 PM EDT
[#1]
The bubble broke, we are on our way down, but such is life.


The economy will recover. I don't know when. I don't give a shit when. I hope sooner than later.


All you can do is do a good job at work, hope you keep your job. stay healthy, keep your family healthy.

Continue on.

Such is life.

/Thread.
12/17/2008 5:45:02 PM EDT
[#2]
OMG George Noory says we're fucked!!!!!


You do understand, much like GD, these guys thrive on crisis, right?
12/17/2008 5:46:17 PM EDT
[#3]
We just need to keep printing money, sooner or later we'll have enough and it'll all work out.

"MAN THE CHAINSAWS"!!!!! Old growth forest dead ahead!!!!!!!
12/17/2008 5:49:44 PM EDT
[#4]
Haven't most economic recoveries happened after a full all out war?


There would be the answer.
12/17/2008 5:53:25 PM EDT
[#5]
Quoted:
We just need to keep printing money, sooner or later we'll have enough and it'll all work out.

"MAN THE CHAINSAWS"!!!!! Old growth forest dead ahead!!!!!!!


actually money is made mostly of cloth these days...

the paper industry is getting raped right now... mostly due to the decline in junk mail
12/17/2008 5:55:49 PM EDT
[#6]
Cut corporate tax rate to 10%

Abolish the EPA, lift requirements for environmental impact studies for construction and mining projects

Lift all tariffs and quotas, end all agricultural subsidies

Cut income taxes to a flat 15%.  Maybe just abolish them period.

Abolish the minimum wage and unemployment benefits

Lift all restrictions on mining and oil exploration and development

Lift all restrictions on construction of power plants and oil refineries, abolish fuel additive standards and pollution controls

Nullify all public employee union contracts
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––

None of these will solve the problem, but it will reduce a lot of barriers and obstacles to recovery.
12/17/2008 5:57:16 PM EDT
[#7]
Obama will fix all of this by raising taxes and a program of "make work"

WE CAN DO IT!
12/17/2008 5:57:30 PM EDT
[#8]
Quoted:
Haven't most economic recoveries happened after a full all out war?


There would be the answer.


War is very bad for economies.
12/17/2008 5:58:47 PM EDT
[#9]
Quoted:
Cut corporate tax rate to 10%

Abolish the EPA, lift requirements for environmental impact studies for construction and mining projects

Lift all tariffs and quotas, end all agricultural subsidies

Cut income taxes to a flat 15%.  Maybe just abolish them period.

Abolish the minimum wage and unemployment benefits

Lift all restrictions on mining and oil exploration and development

Lift all restrictions on construction of power plants and oil refineries, abolish fuel additive standards and pollution controls

Nullify all public employee union contracts
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––

None of these will solve the problem, but it will reduce a lot of barriers and obstacles to recovery.


Sounds like a wet dream.


Instead, our dear leader will do the exact opposite.

YEAH!!!!11!!1!!111
12/17/2008 6:00:34 PM EDT
[#10]
Bubble models show housing price decline to at least 2011.  If you believe that this is a housing issue, the economy can't recover until housing stabalizes.  A year or so after that we should be in the clear.
12/17/2008 6:00:55 PM EDT
[#11]
Socialize everything.

Let the feds control everything
12/17/2008 6:03:16 PM EDT
[#12]
Cheap loan money with no qualifying as to if you can pay it back has caused a lot of problems.  People were willing to pay to much for houses and other things because someone was loaning them the money.  Prices rose to much.  Now is the time for these assets to re evaluate.  Folks are going to say they lost a lot of money, but they never really had it in the first place.  Now they are going to have to pay off the bad debt they accumulate.  

LEARN ONE THING, return potential on investment is based on risk.  The greater the return, the greater the risk.  Anytime you put money at risk, you stand the chance of loosing the money.  If you put money at risk and you make a high rate of return, take some of it and put it in a real safe investment.  That boys and girls is how you grow you personal worth.
12/17/2008 6:04:27 PM EDT
[#13]
Quoted:
Socialize everything.

Let the feds control everything


That seems to be where we're headed.

12/17/2008 6:11:41 PM EDT
[#14]
The Fed is paying off a huge credit debt with credit.  How long do you think this can last?
12/17/2008 6:15:47 PM EDT
[#15]
Maybe Europe will return the favor and come over here and rebuild our economy.....with some help from Japan korea and China (north and south).  Hey, we deserve it.
12/17/2008 6:17:58 PM EDT
[#16]
Pretty simple really... the economy "recovers" when everyone decides it has recovered and they return to biz as usual.
12/17/2008 6:18:11 PM EDT
[#17]
Sometimes I think some people actually want the entire world financial system to collapse.
12/17/2008 6:22:31 PM EDT
[#18]
Quoted:
Obama will fix all of this by raising taxes and a program of "make work"

WE CAN DO IT!





Yes we can! ...








...enter a decade of stagnant shit just like japan. liberalism can work, we just have to give it another shot.
12/17/2008 6:23:27 PM EDT
[#19]
Quoted:
Sometimes I think some people actually want the entire world financial system to collapse.




Some people do. They're called communists. They think the more people are miserable, the better the chance of "social revolution". Something to be said for that idea too. Our little dip in the stock market gave us black jesus for a leader.
12/17/2008 6:27:23 PM EDT
[#20]
ya know its threads like this that are counter productive ,and just depress the shit out of most of us. if you guys ever lived thru the times your claiming are coming, you pray that it doesn't happen. just ask any old timer that lived thru the great depression, losing EVERYTHING,no money, no nothing. most would not survive. and whats supposedly coming may be worse?god i hope not or were ALL done.
12/17/2008 6:42:57 PM EDT
[#21]
Was going to start a thread about how bad we are fuked right now, but I'm too drunk.
This is not a "typical" recession.  This goes longer and deeper (that's what she said ) than the typical recession.  Based on what I've read, 2010 is the soonest we could see some relief.
12/17/2008 6:46:19 PM EDT
[#22]
Quoted:
Socialize everything.

Let the feds control everything


Right on, Komrad

12/17/2008 6:52:24 PM EDT
[#23]
Quoted:


Where is the GOOD NEWS?


The good news is that history proves this nation's economy goes up, and it goes down.

How will the economy recover? Same way it always has.

12/17/2008 6:53:28 PM EDT
[#24]
Quoted:
ya know its threads like this that are counter productive ,and just depress the shit out of most of us. if you guys ever lived thru the times your claiming are coming, you pray that it doesn't happen. just ask any old timer that lived thru the great depression, losing EVERYTHING,no money, no nothing. most would not survive. and whats supposedly coming may be worse?god i hope not or were ALL done.


It's easy to  throw up your hands and  say "We're fucked!"  

I legitimately want to hear an opinion OTHER than typical doomer BS.
12/17/2008 6:59:15 PM EDT
[#25]
I think politicians will fuck it up worse than it is already, take the economy longer to recover, ect. They helped get us into this mess, but they w0ont help get us out. Eventually things will get bad enough, that they can only get better and eventually they will or we will just re-adapt and get use to it and it will seem better.
12/17/2008 7:03:39 PM EDT
[#26]
There is more money due to entitlements now than any other time in history.  Either you A) Piss off the lowlifes by taking away their free money and get some good ol' fashioned rioting or B) Keep borrowing/taxing to pay for it all and bankrupt everyone that actually works in the process.

I'm an optimist and I think the best we'll ever see is way behind us.  We're still living high on credit and as a country, we'll probably never recover, short of a revolution and there would probably be a pretty long recovery period after that even if it happened.  Which it won't.
12/17/2008 7:17:44 PM EDT
[#27]
Cut corporate tax rate to 10%

Abolish the EPA, lift requirements for environmental impact studies for construction and mining projects

Lift all tariffs and quotas, end all agricultural subsidies

Cut income taxes to a flat 15%. Maybe just abolish them period.

Abolish the minimum wage and unemployment benefits

Lift all restrictions on mining and oil exploration and development

Lift all restrictions on construction of power plants and oil refineries, abolish fuel additive standards and pollution controls

Nullify all public employee union contracts




+1
This would probably start to work overnight.  



12/17/2008 7:23:49 PM EDT
[#28]
How should the economy recover or how will the economy recover?

It should recover by the government rescending all of the stupid regulations that keep us from running a business, drilling for oil, digging coal, hiring people for what they are worth, not having to fill out a mountain of paperwork to start a business,  etc, etc.

It will recover like the last Great Depression: people will be very poor, get really hungry and start to fight. Once the herd is thinned enough so that the remainder can eat, the fighting will stop.
12/17/2008 7:27:10 PM EDT
[#29]
Unfettered capitalism is NOT a good thing, just like many things. Because of idiots wanting less and less regulation it has resulted in us having to turn to HEAVY regulation to save it from sinking further. Greenspan was a fucking idiot with his deregulation crusade.

And we didn't recover from the depression by the economy magically correcting itself. It took a world war to do it and the fact that the war wasn't taking place on our soil.
12/17/2008 7:32:14 PM EDT
[#30]
Quoted:
Sometimes I think some people actually want the entire world financial system to collapse.


A lot of people are emotionally and financially invested in that scenario. They either used it as an excuse to buy excessive ammo/guns/mags or they buy in to gold.
12/17/2008 7:37:19 PM EDT
[#31]
How does the economy recover?

1)  Cheap energy (Nuclear power for everyone, tax breaks for Coal liquifaction, open up CONUS for energy exploration).  Nothing spells prosperity like shitloads of cheap energy.

2)  Flat tax on income.  Quit distorting financial decisions with all kinds of weird tax rules.  Everyone should share in equal proportion, the burdens our elected representatives place upon us

3)  Reduce goverment interference in the economy.  Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the EPA are good places to start.
12/17/2008 7:40:24 PM EDT
[#32]
Quoted:
Haven't most economic recoveries happened after a full all out war?


There would be the answer.


The You're-a-peeings aren't very cooperative this time
12/17/2008 7:45:11 PM EDT
[#33]
Once it finishes correcting it will grow if government lets it.
12/17/2008 7:52:44 PM EDT
[#34]
http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/

This guy is pretty at giving econ news with some postitive stuff.