[ARCHIVED THREAD] - How long until China invades Taiwan? (Page 1 of 2)
Posted: 11/5/2008 1:24:29 AM EDT
| It seems that Taiwan is extremely vulnerable come January and that with China having the knowledge that we don't have the stomach for any more interdiction, will strike hard. |
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It seems that Taiwan is extremely vulnerable come January and that with China having the knowledge that we don't have the stomach for any more interdiction, will strike hard. About 20 years, if it comes to it. China and Taiwan just (yesterday) signed a bunch of new deals, opening up freight and commercial aviation as well as seaports, and are on friendlier terms now than they have been in a looong time. The Chinese are super duper patient about this kind of thing, as long as they see a light at the end of the tunnel, which they do. |
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With a terrorist lover in office that is bent on removing the US from any greatness, China should have no problem excercising its muscle with impunity.
Might think something might pop off against Iran prior to the piece of shit taking office also. As they know if they tried to stop them nukes there that, the annointed one will not help. |
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With a terrorist lover in office that is bent on removing the US from any greatness, China should have no problem excercising its muscle with impunity. Might think something might pop off against Iran prior to the piece of shit taking office also. As they know if they tried to stop them nukes there that, the annointed one will not help. As I have mentioned in other threads, our enemies and rivals will become emboldened with a weak leader in office. |
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With a terrorist lover in office that is bent on removing the US from any greatness, China should have no problem excercising its muscle with impunity. Might think something might pop off against Iran prior to the piece of shit taking office also. As they know if they tried to stop them nukes there that, the annointed one will not help. As I have mentioned in other threads, our enemies and rivals will become emboldened with a weak leader in office. And of course by disloyalty and disunity at home. |
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With a terrorist lover in office that is bent on removing the US from any greatness, China should have no problem excercising its muscle with impunity. Might think something might pop off against Iran prior to the piece of shit taking office also. As they know if they tried to stop them nukes there that, the annointed one will not help. As I have mentioned in other threads, our enemies and rivals will become emboldened with a weak leader in office. |
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Crystal Ball Scenario:
Obama imposes a 500% tarriff on goods imported from China, to protect American Jobs. China gets enraged, this slams their already aching economy. To soothe their hurt feelings, Obama subtily declares: "America will forever respect the territorial integrity of China" Guess how China will act??? |
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It seems that Taiwan is extremely vulnerable come January and that with China having the knowledge that we don't have the stomach for any more interdiction, will strike hard. About 20 years, if it comes to it. China and Taiwan just (yesterday) signed a bunch of new deals, opening up freight and commercial aviation as well as seaports, and are on friendlier terms now than they have been in a looong time. The Chinese are super duper patient about this kind of thing, as long as they see a light at the end of the tunnel, which they do. That's good to hear. I'd hate to see a West allied democracy crushed as a result of our election. |
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It seems that Taiwan is extremely vulnerable come January and that with China having the knowledge that we don't have the stomach for any more interdiction, will strike hard. About 20 years, if it comes to it. China and Taiwan just (yesterday) signed a bunch of new deals, opening up freight and commercial aviation as well as seaports, and are on friendlier terms now than they have been in a looong time. The Chinese are super duper patient about this kind of thing, as long as they see a light at the end of the tunnel, which they do. +1. They don't have the military capability right now anyway. What they will do is what they've been doing for the past two decades: Isolate Taiwan diplomatically and militarily and then offer Taiwan a Hong Kong-type deal...or else. |
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The very second that George W. steps out of the office. Not a second longer. Two thousand dollars says you're wrong. Bold. Can't bet, I've got to save the $2,000 for escaping the re-education camps. Why so sure of yourself? Rudimentary understanding of the situation. |
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The very second that George W. steps out of the office. Not a second longer. Two thousand dollars says you're wrong. Bold. Can't bet, I've got to save the $2,000 for escaping the re-education camps. Why so sure of yourself? Because anybody with any real knowledge of the relationship between Taiwan and the PRC knows that having an "independent" Taiwan is far more beneficial to the PRC in many ways. Invading or otherwise subjugating Taiwan would be a no win for the PRC in almost every way, even if the US did nothing. |
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It seems that Taiwan is extremely vulnerable come January and that with China having the knowledge that we don't have the stomach for any more interdiction, will strike hard.  Go troll somewhere else...  You start a thread with a ludicrous scenario, and HE'S the troll? 
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Despite the fantasies bandied about, China actually does want peaceful reunification, and the majority of Taiwan wants it was well. It's all in the details. A shot will not be fired.
ETA: And mainland China will get all kinds of US supplied goodies to take apart and reverse engineer. We really outdo ourselves sometimes. |
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It seems that Taiwan is extremely vulnerable come January and that with China having the knowledge that we don't have the stomach for any more interdiction, will strike hard. Go troll somewhere else... You start a thread with a ludicrous scenario, and HE'S the troll? 
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It seems that Taiwan is extremely vulnerable come January and that with China having the knowledge that we don't have the stomach for any more interdiction, will strike hard. About 20 years, if it comes to it. China and Taiwan just (yesterday) signed a bunch of new deals, opening up freight and commercial aviation as well as seaports, and are on friendlier terms now than they have been in a looong time. The Chinese are super duper patient about this kind of thing, as long as they see a light at the end of the tunnel, which they do. That's good to hear. I'd hate to see a West allied democracy crushed as a result of our election. Don't be so sure. Taiwan will be looking at Obama, and looking at China, and will come to the conclusion that they need to accept the reality of China over the fantasy of the US protecting them. They will continue to drift into the PRC's arms until they end up like Hong Kong. It is happening anyway, but an Obama presidency will speed up the process because it limits Taiwan's options. |
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Don't be so sure. Taiwan will be looking at Obama, and looking at China, and will come to the conclusion that they need to accept the reality of China over the fantasy of the US protecting them. They will continue to drift into the PRC's arms until they end up like Hong Kong. It is happening anyway, but an Obama presidency will speed up the process because it limits Taiwan's options. See, this is what annoys the hell out of me every time voters talk a walk off the reservation like this. Not only do we get screwed over at home, but our allies get hung out to dry by a tard in the White House. Yet curiously, every time we get a tard in the White House, the populations of our allies adore him. 
We have GOT to restrict voting rights. The college and handout votes are killing us. |
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Don't be so sure. Taiwan will be looking at Obama, and looking at China, and will come to the conclusion that they need to accept the reality of China over the fantasy of the US protecting them. They will continue to drift into the PRC's arms until they end up like Hong Kong. It is happening anyway, but an Obama presidency will speed up the process because it limits Taiwan's options. See, this is what annoys the hell out of me every time voters talk a walk off the reservation like this. Not only do we get screwed over at home, but our allies get hung out to dry by a tard in the White House. Yet curiously, every time we get a tard in the White House, the populations of our allies adore him. 
We have GOT to restrict voting rights. The college and handout votes are killing us. Unlike here, where we tend to think that we are hugely important and who we vote for actually matters to the world, the average American voter doesn't seem to understand that who they vote for can actually change the course of world history. Nations live or die by the will of the US president, and so by the vote of every American over the age of 18. To vote on an American presidential election is an awesome responsibility that few seem to appreciate. |
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It seems that Taiwan is extremely vulnerable come January and that with China having the knowledge that we don't have the stomach for any more interdiction, will strike hard. Go troll somewhere else... You start a thread with a ludicrous scenario, and HE'S the troll? Yes, because I asked a simple fucking question. I didn't deserve to be "laughed" at for asking the question, nor do I need you to call me a troll for it. It was and is a serious question that even some site staff had a serious answer for. I'm tired of all these ARFCOM thread shitters. If you think my question isn't logical, say why so that others may learn. It's not that hard to be civil to each other. And it is in no way "ludicrous". Far fetched maybe, but ludicrous it's not. It wasn't that long ago that PRC and Taiwan were close to a fight. |
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Don't be so sure. Taiwan will be looking at Obama, and looking at China, and will come to the conclusion that they need to accept the reality of China over the fantasy of the US protecting them. They will continue to drift into the PRC's arms until they end up like Hong Kong. It is happening anyway, but an Obama presidency will speed up the process because it limits Taiwan's options. See, this is what annoys the hell out of me every time voters talk a walk off the reservation like this. Not only do we get screwed over at home, but our allies get hung out to dry by a tard in the White House. Yet curiously, every time we get a tard in the White House, the populations of our allies adore him.
We have GOT to restrict voting rights. The college and handout votes are killing us. Unlike here, where we tend to think that we are hugely important and who we vote for actually matters to the world, the average American voter doesn't seem to understand that who they vote for can actually change the course of world history. Nations live or die by the will of the US president, and so by the vote of every American over the age of 18. To vote on an American presidential election is an awesome responsibility that few seem to appreciate. no all that matters was to get a black man in the White House. that, and because he didn't have a father that's why he picked Biden. I was told that by an Obiden supporter! |
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no all that matters was to get a black man in the White House. that, and because he didn't have a father that's why he picked Biden. I was told that by an Obiden supporter! Democratic voters are so fucking stupid it's mind-bending. Who needs brains when you believe in hope and change? |
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Why is it ludicrous? Well the simple idea that it will be any more or any less vulnerable in January for starters.
Christ everybody thinks that the whole world will fall apart when Obama gets in. get a freaking life. Like Hong Kong and Macao, the PRC uses Taiwan as a conduit for goods and money to and from nations, companies, people that for many reasons don't wish to be seen as doing business with the PRC. The PRC depends on convincing the rest of the world it is not an expanding behemoth bent on world domination. (They are but they sure don't want that perception to get out.) The Chinese are losing a tremendous amount of face over Tibet. If they were to over-run Taiwan, the international reaction would cause an immediate freezing of trade with the United States and Europe. India, Indonesia, Philippines would immediately leap into filling that void. The PRC is also dependent on international suppliers of POL, wood, scrap metal, etc. Cut that off and their economy would collapse. If the economy collapsed, the PLA and the government would lose control over the people. Yeah, they are going to throw away 40+ years of improving relations with the whole world over the arrival of a new President in Washington, and force that new President into taking military action which they are not able to counter effectively now. Now in 20 to 40 years, the picture changes, but in two months. Yes it's a ludicrous statement. Now suppose you tell us any upside at all for the PRC to go after Taiwan. You must have had some reason to think it made sense. Or if you can't think of any upside, are you serious in thinking that Obama is just going to hand over Taiwan for shits and grins? Because I can't see any upside for him to publicly abandon Taiwan or to encourage a fight with the PRC, either. So tell us why you think your statement made any sense. That's why I "shit" on your thread. BTW, you seem to be forgetting that's what happened to Saddam in the First Gulf War, he thought the US gave him a go ahead to invade Kuwait, and got his ass well and truly kicked for it. He thought he was good to go. The PRC know they aren't ready to take us on. And they saw the Kuwait Gambit used to smack down Hussein. guess what they aren't dumb, they saw that and learned from it. The US has not backed down from a confrontation in about 20 years, they sure as hell are not going to do anything to force BHO to show half of the US and a lot of the world he isn't a chicken. |
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Why is it ludicrous? Well the simple idea that it will be any more or any less vulnerable in January for starters. Christ everybody thinks that the whole world will fall apart when Obama gets in. get a freaking life. Like Hong Kong and Macao, the PRC uses Taiwan as a conduit for goods and money to and from nations, companies, people that for many reasons don't wish to be seen as doing business with the PRC. The PRC depends on convincing the rest of the world it is not an expanding behemoth bent on world domination. (They are but they sure don't want that perception to get out.) The Chinese are losing a tremendous amount of face over Tibet. If they were to over-run Taiwan, the international reaction would cause an immediate freezing of trade with the United States and Europe. India, Indonesia, Philippines would immediately leap into filling that void. The PRC is also dependent on international suppliers of POL, wood, scrap metal, etc. Cut that off and their economy would collapse. If the economy collapsed, the PLA and the government would lose control over the people. Yeah, they are going to throw away 40+ years of improving relations with the whole world over the arrival of a new President in Washington, and force that new President into taking military action which they are not able to counter effectively now. Now in 20 to 40 years, the picture changes, but in two months. Yes it's a ludicrous statement. Now suppose you tell us any upside at all for the PRC to go after Taiwan. You must have had some reason to think it made sense. Or if you can't think of any upside, are you serious in thinking that Obama is just going to hand over Taiwan for shits and grins? Because I can't see any upside for him to publicly abandon Taiwan or to encourage a fight with the PRC, either. So tell us why you think your statement made any sense. That's why I "shit" on your thread. BTW, you seem to be forgetting that's what happened to Saddam in the First Gulf War, he thought the US gave him a go ahead to invade Kuwait, and got his ass well and truly kicked for it. He thought he was good to go. The PRC know they aren't ready to take us on. And they saw the Kuwait Gambit used to smack down Hussein. guess what they aren't dumb, they saw that and learned from it. The US has not backed down from a confrontation in about 20 years, they sure as hell are not going to do anything to force BHO to show half of the US and a lot of the world he isn't a chicken. This question is not just for you it is for all the it will never happen crowd. If China is not expansionist towards Tiawan why have they spent the last 10 years developing a military geared for Force PROJECTION instead of defense? 1)They want a more effective saber to rattle? 2)It seemed like a good idea to do with that extra money (AKA the arfcom why I have 12 ars reason) 3)They want to project force some where else but only for the children 4)Those airborne divisions, tanks, landing ships and aircraft carriers really aren't being built 5)They want to project force somewhere else for reasons other than the children 6)some other innocent reason that I am too stupid to figure out 7)That book (sorry the title escapes me) talking about the way to defeat the US in a war written by two Chinese officers published by a govt owned publisher was never written the Chinese are our friends who live in harmony with the world and environment |
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Why is it ludicrous? Well the simple idea that it will be any more or any less vulnerable in January for starters. Christ everybody thinks that the whole world will fall apart when Obama gets in. get a freaking life. Like Hong Kong and Macao, the PRC uses Taiwan as a conduit for goods and money to and from nations, companies, people that for many reasons don't wish to be seen as doing business with the PRC. The PRC depends on convincing the rest of the world it is not an expanding behemoth bent on world domination. (They are but they sure don't want that perception to get out.) The Chinese are losing a tremendous amount of face over Tibet. If they were to over-run Taiwan, the international reaction would cause an immediate freezing of trade with the United States and Europe. India, Indonesia, Philippines would immediately leap into filling that void. The PRC is also dependent on international suppliers of POL, wood, scrap metal, etc. Cut that off and their economy would collapse. If the economy collapsed, the PLA and the government would lose control over the people. Yeah, they are going to throw away 40+ years of improving relations with the whole world over the arrival of a new President in Washington, and force that new President into taking military action which they are not able to counter effectively now. Now in 20 to 40 years, the picture changes, but in two months. Yes it's a ludicrous statement. Now suppose you tell us any upside at all for the PRC to go after Taiwan. You must have had some reason to think it made sense. Or if you can't think of any upside, are you serious in thinking that Obama is just going to hand over Taiwan for shits and grins? Because I can't see any upside for him to publicly abandon Taiwan or to encourage a fight with the PRC, either. So tell us why you think your statement made any sense. That's why I "shit" on your thread. BTW, you seem to be forgetting that's what happened to Saddam in the First Gulf War, he thought the US gave him a go ahead to invade Kuwait, and got his ass well and truly kicked for it. He thought he was good to go. The PRC know they aren't ready to take us on. And they saw the Kuwait Gambit used to smack down Hussein. guess what they aren't dumb, they saw that and learned from it. The US has not backed down from a confrontation in about 20 years, they sure as hell are not going to do anything to force BHO to show half of the US and a lot of the world he isn't a chicken. This question is not just for you it is for all the it will never happen crowd. If China is not expansionist towards Tiawan why have they spent the last 10 years developing a military geared for Force PROJECTION instead of defense? 1)They want a more effective saber to rattle? 2)It seemed like a good idea to do with that extra money (AKA the arfcom why I have 12 ars reason) 3)They want to project force some where else but only for the children 4)Those airborne divisions, tanks, landing ships and aircraft carriers really aren't being built 5)They want to project force somewhere else for reasons other than the children 6)some other innocent reason that I am too stupid to figure out 7)That book (sorry the title escapes me) talking about the way to defeat the US in a war written by two Chinese officers published by a govt owned publisher was never written the Chinese are our friends who live in harmony with the world and environment China's expansionism toward Taiwan holds military action as a last resort, but as for their defense / force projection capability, the answer is probably similar to the reasons the US pursues the same goal, and there are lots of those reasons. There's the ever popular "better to have it and not need it than need it and not have it" and also the fact it increasing patriotism and national pride, and the fact that it can always be turned inward if the da bian hits the fan. China might attack Taiwan in 20 years if it knows it can get away with it, and if it sees no other option for gaining control of the Island, but it is far and away the biggest 'lose' situation for them. Bear in mind they might also have to fight a war with Russia some day, and want to be prepared for it. China is actually and truly perfectly happy with the status quo with Taiwan, especially with the KuoMinTang back in power there, and a PRC-friendly Ma Ying Jeou as president. I had one Chinese communist (actual communist, CPC member) tell me over a boozy dinner one night that it's fine if the KMT claims to be the ruler of One China, since what is important is that One China is unified, and that the KMT is invited to try to exert its claim on the mainland, so that the CPC can beat them fair-and-square and settle it. It's like a big face-saving ploy for all the Chinese in China collectively, since they can't abide being 'divided.' The most likely outcome is that Taiwan will eventually 'voluntarily' (China exerting every clandestine influence it can,of course) submit to Chinese rule on the HK/Macau model,where it has self rule, its own laws, for 50 years or something, and just fly the red flag on top. |
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It seems that Taiwan is extremely vulnerable come January and that with China having the knowledge that we don't have the stomach for any more interdiction, will strike hard. About 20 years, if it comes to it. China and Taiwan just (yesterday) signed a bunch of new deals, opening up freight and commercial aviation as well as seaports, and are on friendlier terms now than they have been in a looong time. The Chinese are super duper patient about this kind of thing, as long as they see a light at the end of the tunnel, which they do. I've always heard that the real plan is just to infiltrate and subvert until the people of Taiwan vote for "reunification". |
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It seems that Taiwan is extremely vulnerable come January and that with China having the knowledge that we don't have the stomach for any more interdiction, will strike hard. About 20 years, if it comes to it. China and Taiwan just (yesterday) signed a bunch of new deals, opening up freight and commercial aviation as well as seaports, and are on friendlier terms now than they have been in a looong time. The Chinese are super duper patient about this kind of thing, as long as they see a light at the end of the tunnel, which they do. I've always heard that the real plan is just to infiltrate and subvert until the people of Taiwan vote for "reunification". An order of magnitude more likely than invading them, and almost certainly true. |
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It seems that Taiwan is extremely vulnerable come January and that with China having the knowledge that we don't have the stomach for any more interdiction, will strike hard. About 20 years, if it comes to it. China and Taiwan just (yesterday) signed a bunch of new deals, opening up freight and commercial aviation as well as seaports, and are on friendlier terms now than they have been in a looong time. The Chinese are super duper patient about this kind of thing, as long as they see a light at the end of the tunnel, which they do. I've always heard that the real plan is just to infiltrate and subvert until the people of Taiwan vote for "reunification". An order of magnitude more likely than invading them, and almost certainly true. It worked for the soviets on us. Hey at least we were spared that whole nuke war thing. |
| I think that the only way that the PRC would invade Taiwan is if the economy really does drop to 1930s, Great Depression levels for a sustained period with no end in near sight. Under that scenario there wouldn't be any loss of western trade (it would all ready be gone), so the Chinese government could act with impunity in their own backyard. If the economy stays even moderately functional the potential for lost trade with the west far outweighs the value of seizing Taiwan. |
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With a terrorist lover in office that is bent on removing the US from any greatness, China should have no problem excercising its muscle with impunity. Might think something might pop off against Iran prior to the piece of shit taking office also. As they know if they tried to stop them nukes there that, the annointed one will not help. As I have mentioned in other threads, our enemies and rivals will become emboldened with a weak leader in office. And of course by disloyalty and disunity at home. Yeah, ARFCOM should take a bit of their own medicine and "love it or leave it" I can't believe ARFCOM is trash-talking our next president, emboldening our enemies. |
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China will NOT invade Taiwan as there is no reason for China to invade Taiwan. Taiwan, like Hong Kong and Macao, will peacefully return to China. One country with three different economic systems. 5sub Not an exciting resolution I know but that's what will happen. |
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It seems that Taiwan is extremely vulnerable come January and that with China having the knowledge that we don't have the stomach for any more interdiction, will strike hard. About 20 years, if it comes to it. China and Taiwan just (yesterday) signed a bunch of new deals, opening up freight and commercial aviation as well as seaports, and are on friendlier terms now than they have been in a looong time. The Chinese are super duper patient about this kind of thing, as long as they see a light at the end of the tunnel, which they do. +1. They don't have the military capability right now anyway. What they will do is what they've been doing for the past two decades: Isolate Taiwan diplomatically and militarily and then offer Taiwan a Hong Kong-type deal...or else. +1 It's the destiny of Taiwan to go the way of HK and Macau. The rest is just typical Asian posturing. |
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When Putin invades Ukraine. Hussein will be overwhelmed. Russia NEEDS the Ukraine and WILL make a play. Maybe, just maybe, we can get off by giving Russia only the Crimea.........we'll see. 5sub The high probability outcome in the Russia/Ukraine situation is Ukraine elects a pro-Russia government (probably headed by Yulia Timoshenko) and they come to an agreement peacefully. Only American so-called 'conservatives' want to see war in Eastern Europe. |
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It seems that Taiwan is extremely vulnerable come January and that with China having the knowledge that we don't have the stomach for any more interdiction, will strike hard. About 20 years, if it comes to it. China and Taiwan just (yesterday) signed a bunch of new deals, opening up freight and commercial aviation as well as seaports, and are on friendlier terms now than they have been in a looong time. The Chinese are super duper patient about this kind of thing, as long as they see a light at the end of the tunnel, which they do. They had been working on this since the early 1990s. I won't give credit to the this election. |
