Posted: 7/25/2016 12:48:40 PM EDT
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Even Nate Silver has no choice but to acknowledge reality. My opinion on polls hasn't changed, though. I still don't trust them, but Trump continues to benefit from current events, the wiki leaks, the immigrant attacks, the immigrant diseases being spread. Just what news can happen between now and election day that helps Clinton? Nothing. We're quickly reaching a point where anything less than a Clinton homerun during the debate will give her any chance at all. And all the chatter about Democrats being brainwashed, it takes more than Blacks and feminist to get elected, and there is white hot rage among Bernie supporters right now. They saw the Democratic establishment steal the election from Sanders, and they are in no mood to forgive.
https://voxday.blogspot.com/2016/07/the-trumpslide-cometh.html And if you're a shill or bot, save it. We don't need your talking points. We already know them by heart. Trump is a NY Democrat. Trump wants Clinton to win. Clinton will win more delegates, so popular vote doesn't count. Ignore the polls, Democrats will steal the election. Ignore the polls, Democrats are zombies who don't care how rotten Clinton is. Save all your bullshit talking points, because it's clear you are trying to discourage people from voting. You're either a Democrat trying to sow dissent or a neocon who prefers Clinton, either due to her allegiance to big business or to Israel. Just save your breath, and enjoy watching history unfold as America rejects Neoliberalism and Neoconservatism and elects a Nationalist who places their interest ahead of the bankers who run this country. 
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You would be surprised how easy it is to manipulate people. Let's see what Bernie has to say tonight. My guess is he asks for people to be calm and to rally behind Hillary because Trump is the real evil in this country. The entire convention will not be about how qualified Hillary is. It will be about all the free stuff people should get and the evil Trump is a sexist, racist, homophobic, xenophobic biggot who wants to set the country back 100 years. By the end of a week of that type of brain washing the Bernie crowd will be on board with Hillary. |
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Quoted: You would be surprised how easy it is to manipulate people. Let's see what Bernie has to say tonight. My guess is he asks for people to be calm and to rally behind Hillary because Trump is the real evil in this country. The entire convention will not be about how qualified Hillary is. It will be about all the free stuff people should get and the evil Trump is a sexist, racist, homophobic, xenophobic biggot who wants to set the country back 100 years. By the end of a week of that type of brain washing the Bernie crowd will be on board with Hillary. |
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who was the ARFCOM member who predicted way back that Trump in a landslide, and I believed he put money on it.
It's looking more and more favorable at this point. I see the polls only going in Trump's favor at this point. This is just the start of the slide for the democrats. |
| I've got a friend on facebook. He is very liberal and spends his days post lib shit. The one this morning was how all the banks in the US wouldn't work with Trump anymore and that he was turning to the Russian's. So in turn he is working with them to steal all the emails from the DNC to help him win the campaign. |
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I never see any Trump stickers.
Many people in polls and in public will never admit they are voting for him. His actual vote is higher than what is being reported. People don't want their tires slashed or punched in the face. Most people are passive aggressive. What's more passive aggressive than voting for someone in relative privacy? That's a big F-U to progressive political correctness. The pulling of a lever or bubbling in the name Trump is a passive aggressive way of basically flipping off a group of BLM or illegal immigrant protesters. |
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I never see any Trump stickers. Many people in polls and in public will never admit they are voting for him. His actual vote is higher than what is being reported. People don't want their tires slashed or punched in the face. Most people are passive aggressive. What's more passive aggressive than voting for someone in relative privacy? That's a big F-U to progressive political correctness. The pulling of a lever or bubbling in the name Trump is a passive aggressive way of basically flipping off a group of BLM or illegal immigrant protesters. I would shocked for anyone to admit for voting for Trump in CA. |
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By the end of a week of that type of brain washing the Bernie crowd will be on board with Hillary. The question isn't whether the people who supported Sanders will suddenly support Trump. The question is what percentage of them will turn out to vote for Clinton. Some will. Others won't, especially some of his young voters. They have a less firm attachment to the party and the vast majority of those under 30 have never supported a candidate who did not win the nomination. Many of them also believe that the DNC should have been as neutral as it claimed to be. In a close election the percentage of Sanders voters who don't turn out for Clinton could make a difference. |
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Silver just gave Trump a 57% chance at winning.  Quoted:
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Romney in a landslide. Silver just gave Trump a 57% chance at winning. Link? I'm on 538 now and it says 53.5C/46.5T link |
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I would shocked for anyone to admit for voting for Trump in CA. Quoted:
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I never see any Trump stickers. Many people in polls and in public will never admit they are voting for him. His actual vote is higher than what is being reported. People don't want their tires slashed or punched in the face. Most people are passive aggressive. What's more passive aggressive than voting for someone in relative privacy? That's a big F-U to progressive political correctness. The pulling of a lever or bubbling in the name Trump is a passive aggressive way of basically flipping off a group of BLM or illegal immigrant protesters. I would shocked for anyone to admit for voting for Trump in CA. Settle down and step away from that power line... 
A.W.D. |
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Even Nate Silver has no choice but to acknowledge reality. My opinion on polls hasn't changed, though. I still don't trust them, but Trump continues to benefit from current events, the wiki leaks, the immigrant attacks, the immigrant diseases being spread. Just what news can happen between now and election day that helps Clinton? Nothing. We're quickly reaching a point where anything less than a Clinton homerun during the debate will give her any chance at all. And all the chatter about Democrats being brainwashed, it takes more than Blacks and feminist to get elected, and there is white hot rage among Bernie supporters right now. They saw the Democratic establishment steal the election from Sanders, and they are in no mood to forgive. https://voxday.blogspot.com/2016/07/the-trumpslide-cometh.html And if you're a shill or bot, save it. We don't need your talking points. We already know them by heart. Trump is a NY Democrat. Trump wants Clinton to win. Clinton will win more delegates, so popular vote doesn't count. Ignore the polls, Democrats will steal the election. Ignore the polls, Democrats are zombies who don't care how rotten Clinton is. Save all your bullshit talking points, because it's clear you are trying to discourage people from voting. You're either a Democrat trying to sow dissent or a neocon who prefers Clinton, either due to her allegiance to big business or to Israel. Just save your breath, and enjoy watching history unfold as America rejects Neoliberalism and Neoconservatism and elects a Nationalist who places their interest ahead of the bankers who run this country.
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I would shocked for anyone to admit for voting for Trump in CA. Quoted:
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I never see any Trump stickers. Many people in polls and in public will never admit they are voting for him. His actual vote is higher than what is being reported. People don't want their tires slashed or punched in the face. Most people are passive aggressive. What's more passive aggressive than voting for someone in relative privacy? That's a big F-U to progressive political correctness. The pulling of a lever or bubbling in the name Trump is a passive aggressive way of basically flipping off a group of BLM or illegal immigrant protesters. I would shocked for anyone to admit for voting for Trump in CA. I know a lot who are. No stickers on their cars. Trump just has to act presidental, that's all he has to do to secure the popular vote. The electoral college on the other hand...... There is going to be a lot of angry voters in November after the election. If Trump wins, there will be massive protests by Hispanics and the usual BLM protesters. It will get more violent than this summer. The media will wake up from their 8 year vacation and now all of a sudden become investigative journalists. If Hillary wins, kiss ammo goodbye. If Hilllary appoints a rabid anti gun justice to SCOTUS we are doomed. It'll take a few years. If the dems have congress see another AWB. Permanent this time. Lots of states with restrictive gun laws will get even bolder with a dem majority SCOTUS. I wonder if conservatives have have the backbone to say enough and back it up with something other than tough talk? |
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Nate Silver has been the "rain man" of election predictions recently. That 57.2 Trump to 42.5 Clinton is a big deal. Yes it is but that is not the whole story from Nate Silver " However, in Silver's polls-only forecast and in his polls-plus forecast, Clinton was still favored to come out on top. In the polls-only model, Clinton had a 53.7% chance of winning, while in the polls-plus model, Silver gave Clinton a 58.2% chance of winning in November. But those numbers are a drastic drop-off from where they recently were - hovering around 80%." http://www.businessinsider.com/nate-silver-donald-trump-polls-2016-7 |
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Don't want to get my vehicle vandalized. Okay go shock yourself, cause I will vote for Trump. 
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I never see any Trump stickers. ... Don't want to get my vehicle vandalized. Quoted:
I would shocked for anyone to admit for voting for Trump in CA. Okay go shock yourself, cause I will vote for Trump.
Yep. |
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I don't trust Bernie supporters to vote against free shit. What matters is the electoral vote though. Whether you agree with him or not his stance on trade is going to be targeting all those upper middle and eastern states we keep loosing. If he gets a few of those states he wins. End of story. I think trump is smarter than people give him credit for. He looked at the map and formulated a strategy for winning. Like you'd expect from a businessman. If he stays on the same track as his rnc speech he will win. Illegal immigration, economics trade policy. Those three he wins big-time. So far he has not let the media or democrats push him into stupid social issues that make Republicans look like assholes to women and no political voters.. if he can keep that up he wins. |
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Settle down and step away from that power line...
A.W.D. Quoted:
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I never see any Trump stickers. Many people in polls and in public will never admit they are voting for him. His actual vote is higher than what is being reported. People don't want their tires slashed or punched in the face. Most people are passive aggressive. What's more passive aggressive than voting for someone in relative privacy? That's a big F-U to progressive political correctness. The pulling of a lever or bubbling in the name Trump is a passive aggressive way of basically flipping off a group of BLM or illegal immigrant protesters. I would shocked for anyone to admit for voting for Trump in CA. Settle down and step away from that power line...
A.W.D. I dont mean on here, I'm talking about having signs in the yard and stickers on their cars. |
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Link in OP. Scroll down half a page Quoted:
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Romney in a landslide. Silver just gave Trump a 57% chance at winning. Link? I'm on 538 now and it says 53.5C/46.5T link Link in OP. Scroll down half a page Yup, I saw that, but the post that shows that also says, "posted by VD @ 7/25/2016 08:30:00 AM" The link I posted to 538 was updated 2 hours ago. So did Silver revise his numbers again in the last couple hours (and if so, why) or is is the first link bullshit? |
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Quoted: I never see any Trump stickers. Many people in polls and in public will never admit they are voting for him. His actual vote is higher than what is being reported. People don't want their tires slashed or punched in the face. Most people are passive aggressive. What's more passive aggressive than voting for someone in relative privacy? That's a big F-U to progressive political correctness. The pulling of a lever or bubbling in the name Trump is a passive aggressive way of basically flipping off a group of BLM or illegal immigrant protesters. Of course not. Having a Trump sticker on your car in CA is just asking for it to be keyed. |
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Yup, I saw that, but the post that shows that also says, "posted by VD @ 7/25/2016 08:30:00 AM" The link I posted to 538 was updated 2 hours ago. So did Silver revise his numbers again in the last couple hours (and if so, why) or is is the first link bullshit? Quoted:
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Romney in a landslide. Silver just gave Trump a 57% chance at winning. Link? I'm on 538 now and it says 53.5C/46.5T link Link in OP. Scroll down half a page Yup, I saw that, but the post that shows that also says, "posted by VD @ 7/25/2016 08:30:00 AM" The link I posted to 538 was updated 2 hours ago. So did Silver revise his numbers again in the last couple hours (and if so, why) or is is the first link bullshit? I believe he is referring to the "Now-Cast" prediction. It is the 3rd option below polls only and polls plus. |
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Yup, I saw that, but the post that shows that also says, "posted by VD @ 7/25/2016 08:30:00 AM" The link I posted to 538 was updated 2 hours ago. So did Silver revise his numbers again in the last couple hours (and if so, why) or is is the first link bullshit? Quoted:
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Romney in a landslide. Silver just gave Trump a 57% chance at winning. Link? I'm on 538 now and it says 53.5C/46.5T link Link in OP. Scroll down half a page Yup, I saw that, but the post that shows that also says, "posted by VD @ 7/25/2016 08:30:00 AM" The link I posted to 538 was updated 2 hours ago. So did Silver revise his numbers again in the last couple hours (and if so, why) or is is the first link bullshit? Check the Now Cast prediction. It's there.
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Quoted: Yeah maybe Quoted: Quoted: You would be surprised how easy it is to manipulate people. Let's see what Bernie has to say tonight. My guess is he asks for people to be calm and to rally behind Hillary because Trump is the real evil in this country. The entire convention will not be about how qualified Hillary is. It will be about all the free stuff people should get and the evil Trump is a sexist, racist, homophobic, xenophobic biggot who wants to set the country back 100 years. By the end of a week of that type of brain washing the Bernie crowd will be on board with Hillary. Bernie is on. Free healthcare, fix global warming, defeat Donald Trump, elect Hillary. The crowd got pissed at the elect Hillary comment. Bernie told his "brothers and sisters to calm down because Trump is a bully, full of hatred and bigotry. Trump has insulted Hispanics, Latinos, immigrants, women, Muslims...". Not even 30 minutes into the convention and it is all playing out. |