Posted: 12/16/2013 11:36:03 AM EDT
A graph of the NICS checks for the past 14 years, with notable events. Note that each year, there is a dip in checks over the summer months, but that the following January is almost always at or above the previous January....guess that means we have a lot of purchasing to do over the next 46 days
Seriously though, 2013 had 34% more checks than 2009. In 5 years of Barack Obama's presidency, there have been 13% more checks than over the entire 8 years of George W. Bush's presidency. This totals almost 200 million checks in the past 14 years, with almost 20 million of those in the last year alone. Keep up the good work 
ETA: Forgot to label the peak after Sandy Hook where our local gunshops were flat out of guns to sell. If nothing else, we know where the ceiling is, for the time being 
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looks like the largest overall spikes were Sandy Hook and then Y2K. 9/11 looks barely significant.
Barry's presidency looks like it has brought a more long term trend. Holy cow at the Sandy Hook increase though. I wonder what this would look like with CCW holders' purchase. NICS is pretty much indicative of new purchases, which is a good thing. |
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looks like the largest overall spikes were Sandy Hook and then Y2K. 9/11 looks barely significant. Barry's presidency looks like it has brought a more long term trend. Holy cow at the Sandy Hook increase though. I wonder what this would look like with CCW holders' purchase. NICS is pretty much indicative of new purchases, which is a good thing. I wonder this, too. The Ohio General Assembly just passed a bill that would exempt Ohio CHLs from NICS, which will remove about 3/4 million checks per year at our current rate. I was also surprised at how 9/11 is barely a detectable 'blip' on the screen. |
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Doesn't this sort of disprove the theory of the "gun show loophole"? No. All it shows is a significant increase in NICS checks - sales through licensed dealers. Anti-freedom types will use it as "ZOMFG!!! how many icky guns are being sold that WE DON'T KNOW ABOUT?!?!?!?" ETA - it does show interesting correlations between "something bad happened" and gun sales though. ETA2 - interesting that from 00 - 06 it looks a lot like an EKG... pretty regular and cyclical. ETA3 - it would be interesting to see a breakdown between handguns, long guns, and "other." |
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No. All it shows is a significant increase in NICS checks - sales through licensed dealers. Anti-freedom types will use it as "ZOMFG!!! how many icky guns are being sold that WE DON'T KNOW ABOUT?!?!?!?" Quoted:
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Doesn't this sort of disprove the theory of the "gun show loophole"? No. All it shows is a significant increase in NICS checks - sales through licensed dealers. Anti-freedom types will use it as "ZOMFG!!! how many icky guns are being sold that WE DON'T KNOW ABOUT?!?!?!?" Well, second hand sales mean there's a first hand sale recorded somewhere. You can't really second hand sell a new firearm.... |
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Well, second hand sales mean there's a first hand sale recorded somewhere. You can't really second hand sell a new firearm.... Quoted:
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Doesn't this sort of disprove the theory of the "gun show loophole"? No. All it shows is a significant increase in NICS checks - sales through licensed dealers. Anti-freedom types will use it as "ZOMFG!!! how many icky guns are being sold that WE DON'T KNOW ABOUT?!?!?!?" Well, second hand sales mean there's a first hand sale recorded somewhere. You can't really second hand sell a new firearm.... Hm... yeah, good point. But all NICS can track is sales. |
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I find it a little strange that the peeks are in the winter and valleys are in the summer. I would have thought the opposite. Nice weather, people want to be out shooting and buying guns. When's hunting season? Winter or summer? I'd be interested in seeing how many "Fudd" guns vs. "non-Fudd" guns are sold at varying times throughout the year. |
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When's hunting season? Winter or summer? I'd be interested in seeing how many "Fudd" guns vs. "non-Fudd" guns are sold at varying times throughout the year. Quoted:
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I find it a little strange that the peeks are in the winter and valleys are in the summer. I would have thought the opposite. Nice weather, people want to be out shooting and buying guns. When's hunting season? Winter or summer? I'd be interested in seeing how many "Fudd" guns vs. "non-Fudd" guns are sold at varying times throughout the year. Also Christmas presents |
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When's hunting season? Winter or summer? I'd be interested in seeing how many "Fudd" guns vs. "non-Fudd" guns are sold at varying times throughout the year. Quoted:
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I find it a little strange that the peeks are in the winter and valleys are in the summer. I would have thought the opposite. Nice weather, people want to be out shooting and buying guns. When's hunting season? Winter or summer? I'd be interested in seeing how many "Fudd" guns vs. "non-Fudd" guns are sold at varying times throughout the year. Depends on what you're hunting
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Depends on what you're hunting Quoted:
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I find it a little strange that the peeks are in the winter and valleys are in the summer. I would have thought the opposite. Nice weather, people want to be out shooting and buying guns. When's hunting season? Winter or summer? I'd be interested in seeing how many "Fudd" guns vs. "non-Fudd" guns are sold at varying times throughout the year. Depends on what you're hunting Duck season! Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile |
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Also Christmas presents Quoted:
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I find it a little strange that the peeks are in the winter and valleys are in the summer. I would have thought the opposite. Nice weather, people want to be out shooting and buying guns. When's hunting season? Winter or summer? I'd be interested in seeing how many "Fudd" guns vs. "non-Fudd" guns are sold at varying times throughout the year. Also Christmas presents Bingo. Guns are retail items too. |
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The winter peaks are likely because of tax refunds Between this and hunting season, this is my suspicion as well. January is ALWAYS bigger than December. I think this year was an exception - it seems like so much stuff was bought that the market responded, prices went up, and people stopped buying until production could catch up. By March, ammo was totally gone, and when the market normally would've rebounded in the fall, there was no ammo to be had with the new guns.. Makes me wonder what the next 6 months will look like. The pattern is regular as can be right up until the beginning of President Obama's first term. I'll be interested to see if it returns to a normal pattern in the event we get a president who is not so outspoken against guns. |
| If you pay attention to the peaks it looks like background checks begin to increase during summer or late summer months and then peak around Jan or late Dec. This is the time when gun sales rise in preparation and during hunting seasons. Pretty obvious here. Abnormal spikes are the ones that follow significant events. Voting season happens to be in the middle of hunting season. |